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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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joeysoap

Nothing mad according to this

https://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Cork

Dank Janniels

Cheers Mr.C!
Just in from my hatch battening, pissing rain slight breeze, North East Gallimh

pad199207

A lovely warm wind. Just like Ophelia

M.T. Cranium

bazlers wrote: »

Offaly. I know im escaping the worst but taking down hanging baskets and putting them to the most sheltered side of the house. Thanks for reply

Western half of that county might get offaly windy around midnight. (pun but no joke).

Igotadose

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Just a few drops here near Tralee, overcast.

Netweather

Pouring down in Corca Dhuibhne

Oscar Bravo

Cork Airport down to 980hpa.Was 983hpa at 8pm. Inbound.

Little snowy old me

Artane2002 wrote: »

Yep, cloudy, misty and damp... lovely indeed.

Not in Lucan. Some clear patches in the sky.

deisedevil

Wind starting to really pick up in Dungarvan. Some really strong gusts.

ACitizenErased

Relatively calm in Cork City still

Darwin

joeysoap wrote: »

Nothing mad according to this

https://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Cork

xcweather uses the GFS model, both GFS and Icon models are not that interested in this system for some reason.

Mantis Toboggan

Nothing here in Kildare so far.

maebee

The flock of geese that flies over my house every night at 9pm flew home to roost just after 8pm this evening.

Oscar Bravo

Lots of lightning off the west coast

M.T. Cranium

Eye has come into radar view and appears to be headed a bit west of earlier speculation, landfall may be quite close to Kinsale and across Cork/Cobh after all ... does not change my thinking about severe impacts across east Cork and west Waterford however, looks to be about an hour and a half from making landfall now. Severe winds are around the south to southeast quadrants of the eye.

Looking on google earth I see only sparse coastal development from east of Roches' Point to Churchtown then some fairly large caravan park (?) type places around Garryvoe, that might get rather dangerous around 9-10 p.m.

For now would assume major wind impacts are possible in any part of Cork-Cobh region too.

lcasey90

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Nothing here in Kildare so far.

Lockdown, nó entry premitted unless essential

redsteveireland

bazlers wrote: »

Offaly. I know im escaping the worst but taking down hanging baskets and putting them to the most sheltered side of the house. Thanks for reply

Hanging baskets, I knew I forgot something. Will be amazed if my Sunflowers survive. Watching with interest in Galway, the prospect of Thunderstorms appeals to me

spookwoman

The wildlife is not having it easy with the amount of rain the last few days.

bmc58

Not too bad here in Clonmel at the moment.Bit of rain and breezy.Fingers crossed the bad stuff might miss us.

igCorcaigh

Strange, quickly moving, grey wispy clouds over Cork City.

Burts Bee

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Got a more precise location? Basically across North Cork, east half may see the very strong winds (especially on higher south-facing terrain) and west half definitely a combination of strong winds and heavy rain. The further west you are the more likely it is that flooding will be your bigger risk factor so if you live in a spot prone to flooding, would take some precautions. The Cork to Limerick road should be approximately where wind would be more significant to east and rain to west. Some places near the track will get severe impacts from both.

Thanks MT. I'm near Mallow.

revelman

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Eye has come into radar view and appears to be headed a bit west of earlier speculation, landfall may be quite close to Kinsale and across Cork/Cobh after all ... does not change my thinking about severe impacts across east Cork and west Waterford however, looks to be about an hour and a half from making landfall now. Severe winds are around the south to southeast quadrants of the eye.

Looking on google earth I see only sparse coastal development from east of Roches' Point to Churchtown then some fairly large caravan park (?) type places around Garryvoe, that might get rather dangerous around 9-10 p.m.

For now would assume major wind impacts are possible in any part of Cork-Cobh region too.

Thanks for the update. On the coast here right outside Kinsale. Wind is certainly picking up.

pad199207

Sky quite dramatic

John O.Groats

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Eye has come into radar view and appears to be headed a bit west of earlier speculation, landfall may be quite close to Kinsale and across Cork/Cobh after all ... does not change my thinking about severe impacts across east Cork and west Waterford however, looks to be about an hour and a half from making landfall now. Severe winds are around the south to southeast quadrants of the eye.

Looking on google earth I see only sparse coastal development from east of Roches' Point to Churchtown then some fairly large caravan park (?) type places around Garryvoe, that might get rather dangerous around 9-10 p.m.

For now would assume major wind impacts are possible in any part of Cork-Cobh region too.

What is your thinking about wind speeds/conditions in the west Cork area tonight?

caeser

There is a definite pick up in wind strength here. Each gust is getting louder. In ten minutes it went from relatively calm to a gale. Watching nervously. Hill over Ardmore

igCorcaigh

Crazy how the whole system has changed shape, with the eye quickly forming from what was a slight bend.

SleetAndSnow

Back from dinner! Rain started now in West Cork and quite heavy with a few gusts beginning to hit the house also. Looks like the west will be spared from the worst though.

irishfeen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Eye has come into radar view and appears to be headed a bit west of earlier speculation, landfall may be quite close to Kinsale and across Cork/Cobh after all ... does not change my thinking about severe impacts across east Cork and west Waterford however, looks to be about an hour and a half from making landfall now. Severe winds are around the south to southeast quadrants of the eye.

Looking on google earth I see only sparse coastal development from east of Roches' Point to Churchtown then some fairly large caravan park (?) type places around Garryvoe, that might get rather dangerous around 9-10 p.m.

For now would assume major wind impacts are possible in any part of Cork-Cobh region too.

M.T. .. is it right to say S/SE quadrants of the eye will be wind event and N/W would be a considerable rain event?

hawkwing

bmc58 wrote: »

Not too bad here in Clonmel at the moment.Bit of rain and breezy.Fingers crossed the bad stuff might miss us.

Clonmel is very low and well sheltered in the town itself. Doesn't look like lasting too long at least...

bmc58

pad199207 wrote: »

Sky quite dramatic

Looks ominous.

namloc1980

Fairly calm here in east Cork. Breeze is picking up but no rain. Very eerie feeling in the air.