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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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leahyl

sdanseo wrote: »

Unless they know something we don't (possible) then it's a bit strange for sure. Multiple sources including one they trust well say >30km/h OVER the red warning boundary, and in a wide area too.

They're damned either way of course, because the last few red warnings have been damp squibs or barely scraped the required speeds.

Wait a minute, are you saying that there is an upgrade in wind speeds?

irishfeen

Burts Bee wrote: »

Any North Cork predictions lads??

Unless latest models change it will be windy with dangerous gusts but most of north Cork will be outside red territory. It could well be rain that will be our issue.

Meteorite58

980.8 hPa Falling Rapidly here near Tralee, 18.2mm, very light E'ly

Overcast

That streak of cloud forming and pivoting is what I would imagine will be pointing into Cork / Waterford when it makes landfall. Big line of convection W of the strongest winds.

froog

here's a nice webcam in the isles of scilly. that front is just hitting them now.

https://www.tresco.co.uk/webcams

munsterlegend

irishfeen wrote: »

Unless latest models change it will be windy with dangerous gusts but most of north Cork will be outside red territory. It could well be rain that will be our issue.

Yeah rain more than wind probably the danger.

thomil

979.6mb at my weather station in Ballincollig just west of Cork City at the moment. Light rain and light winds, but fast moving clouds.

[Deleted User]

SweetCaliber wrote: »

I take it Met are sticking with their current warnings, bit bizzare.

Would seem so. Unless their thinking is that upgrades in time for the 9 o clock news is time enough.

OhToBeByTheSea

Rain starting to come down in Dunmore East. Not much wind happening just yet.

munsterlegend

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Would seem so. Unless their thinking is that upgrades in time for the 9 o clock news is time enough.

Have no idea why Waterford not in the red warning.

leahyl

Rain starting in Cork City

irishfeen

munsterlegend wrote: »

Yeah rain more than wind probably the danger.

Trees down could be a massive issue, ground is already saturated and trees are in full bloom.

The council workers are locked down since 8pm and won’t be out until at least 12 tonight for emergency call outs. Travel in the morning could be almost impossible in parts of the south.

JanuarySnowstor

munsterlegend wrote: »

Have no idea why Waterford not in the red warning.

Yes it should have been

Dank Janniels

East Galway /Ros in the firing line?

Itssoeasy

Just from cork city the clouds to the east so towards east cork have gotten noticeably darker in the last half and hour and it's started to rain.

bazlers

Sorry guys if already stated but im in the midlands and wondering what direction will the strongest winds come from?

M.T. Cranium

Burts Bee wrote: »

Any North Cork predictions lads??

Got a more precise location? Basically across North Cork, east half may see the very strong winds (especially on higher south-facing terrain) and west half definitely a combination of strong winds and heavy rain. The further west you are the more likely it is that flooding will be your bigger risk factor so if you live in a spot prone to flooding, would take some precautions. The Cork to Limerick road should be approximately where wind would be more significant to east and rain to west. Some places near the track will get severe impacts from both.

munsterlegend

Denny61 wrote: »

This is farcical..personally I think cork and other coastal areas will have some gusts for about an hour or 3 and rest of country will be just windy..it will just loose its intensity .the amount of panic going on about this so called unusual event jst brought on by the usual weather anaroks.quoting all fancy figures and convoluted chatter ..mark my words ...all a thing about nothing..

There’s a sunset walk at 8 30pm. You might just make it..

JanuarySnowstor

One thing I would say.
Talk of any event being worse than Ophelia is inaccurate.
Ophelia was a full blown hurricane which looked awesome on satellite. We are struggling to find this on sat

M.T. Cranium

bazlers wrote: »

Sorry guys if already stated but im in the midlands and wondering what direction will the strongest winds come from?

Southeast veering gradually to south and southwest. What county are you in?

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

One thing I would say.
Talk of any event being worse than Ophelia is inaccurate.
Ophelia was a full blown hurricane which looked awesome on satellite. We are struggling to find this on sat

Darwin was the worst that I ever saw in north cork.

OhToBeByTheSea

Denny61 wrote: »

This is farcical..personally I think cork and other coastal areas will have some gusts for about an hour or 3 and rest of country will be just windy..it will just loose its intensity .the amount of panic going on about this so called unusual event jst brought on by the usual weather anaroks.quoting all fancy figures and convoluted chatter ..mark my words ...all a thing about nothing..

Okay.

irishfeen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Got a more precise location? Basically across North Cork, east half may see the very strong winds (especially on higher south-facing terrain) and west half definitely a combination of strong winds and heavy rain. The further west you are the more likely it is that flooding will be your bigger risk factor so if you live in a spot prone to flooding, would take some precautions. The Cork to Limerick road should be approximately where wind would be more significant to east and rain to west. Some places near the track will get severe impacts from both.

Higher parts of NW Cork such as Bweeng, Donnaghmore, Rockchapel, Meelin etc could be in for a rough ride tonight too. As you say the rainfall could be biggest issue though.

Parabellum9

Denny61 wrote: »

This is farcical..personally I think cork and other coastal areas will have some gusts for about an hour or 3 and rest of country will be just windy..it will just loose its intensity .the amount of panic going on about this so called unusual event jst brought on by the usual weather anaroks.quoting all fancy figures and convoluted chatter ..mark my words ...all a thing about nothing..

Words and terminology you can’t understand does not equal “convoluted chatter”.

limnam

aisling86 wrote: »

Video from my parents friend who lives at Weavers Point Crosshaven at the entrance to cork harbour. Current conditions.

Where's the video

M.T. Cranium

Dank Janniels wrote: »

East Galway /Ros in the firing line?

Heavy rain and strong winds likely there from about 11 p.m. to daybreak. Orange or level two as you prefer. Expect about 35 mm rain.

bazlers

Offaly. I know im escaping the worst but taking down hanging baskets and putting them to the most sheltered side of the house. Thanks for reply

Cody montana

Still rather calm in cork city,

aisling86

limnam wrote: »

Where's the video

Too big wont upload

Meteorite58

Just a few drops here near Tralee, overcast.

Netweather

irishfeen

Shannon Radar back up??