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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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markjbloggs

hurikane wrote: »

You reckon we’ll need a tribunal?

Naw, I'm sure their own internal performance management systems will ensure that any incompetence is corrected and that future of weather forecasting in Ireland will be all the better for it .

sdanseo

downwesht wrote: »

pressure 965mb in Skibbereen!falling slowly!!!!

If that's accurate this is worse than predicted by around 20mb - the models show ~ 975mb at the centre right now!

jackrussel

Deleted User wrote: »

So Wexford and Waterford are currently on a yellow warning but may be experiencing red conditions within 3 hours?
Shouldn't they have been upgraded to orange before now at least as a precaution?

Waterford is orange status

Bicyclette

Different perspectives here https://hookheritage.ie/live-webcams/

DOCARCH

Deleted User wrote: »

So Wexford and Waterford are currently on a yellow warning but may be experiencing red conditions within 3 hours?
Shouldn't they have been upgraded to orange before now at least as a precaution?

Waterford currently on orange warning. Would have expected orange for Wexfod too.

Wouldn't be surprised to see warnings revised/updated in the next half hour.

SweetCaliber

DOCARCH wrote: »

Waterford currently on orange warning. Would have expected orange for Wexfod too.

Wouldn't be surprised to see warnings revised/updated in the next half hour.

Would be very surprised if Waterford doesn't go Red and Wexford orange. They don't seem to be in a rush to update anyways.

lucernarian

sdanseo wrote: »

If that's accurate this is worse than predicted by around 20mb - the models show ~ 975mb at the centre right now!

It's 985mb in Cork airport at 7pm, i'd doubt that 965 is accurate.

Meteorite58

Latest ECM 12Z showing potential for thunderstorms in the SW tonight and tomorrow sporadic storms across the country. Big squally showers.

downwesht

sorry 985mb typo............

DIF

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If we don't have any forum members already in Dungarvan to Youghal especially near the coast there, perhaps somebody with a vehicle within 2 hours drive might like to do a live on the spot report as landfall seems most likely to be close to 9:30-10:00 p.m. on current developments.

Wherever the low crosses the coast, about 30 miles east of there would be the maximum wind and storm surge impact zone. I would imagine there's some seaside caravan parks in that general area, those should probably be toured by local police and visitors warned to take shelter (perhaps this is already happening).

If we do have current thread readers in that impact zone, could you let us know where you are situated and give us hourly or more frequent updates starting around 8 p.m. TIA.

Situated 25km inland between Midleton & Youghal at 90 mt. Pressure dropped from 988mb to 982mb in past hour, very quiet, no wind, no birds about. Ophelia took a few roof tiles and shed roof off; like fellow Boarder Caeser am thinking it maybe a long night.

deisedevil

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If we don't have any forum members already in Dungarvan to Youghal especially near the coast there, perhaps somebody with a vehicle within 2 hours drive might like to do a live on the spot report as landfall seems most likely to be close to 9:30-10:00 p.m. on current developments.

Wherever the low crosses the coast, about 30 miles east of there would be the maximum wind and storm surge impact zone. I would imagine there's some seaside caravan parks in that general area, those should probably be toured by local police and visitors warned to take shelter (perhaps this is already happening).

If we do have current thread readers in that impact zone, could you let us know where you are situated and give us hourly or more frequent updates starting around 8 p.m. TIA.

Little breezy here at the minute and rain getting heavier than the drizzle we had for last while.

gnarbarian

This is kinda hilarious
This is the webcam set up in the fields above my housing estate in Wicklow town
You can't see anything but mist
https://www.wicklowcam.com/

aisling86

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1296151805508886529?s=19

Possibly closer to city landfall?

spookwoman

Too damn warm to have to close the windows

Meteorite58

Must say I'm puzzled why the ARPEGE ia so far E, AROME has stepped back in a bit further W but not nearly as strong as the other models. EURO 4 eventually on board, HIRLAM -FMI verylike ECM , UKMO and HARMONIE now.

For the record , can review after.

irishfeen

18.1 DegC, 986.8 hpa (991.7hpa 2.5 hours ago) slight breeze starting now in North West Cork @ 190m ASL.

Will be interesting to see how tonight pans out, we should escape the worse on latest models. Rain might be our problem over next few days.

happyoutscan

Sorry I haven't been able to keep up to date with the incoming storm. Would I need to tie up the picnic table (in West Mayo, picnic table is quite heavy)?

Baybay

gnarbarian wrote: »

This is kinda hilarious
This is the webcam set up in the fields above my housing estate in Wicklow town
You can't see anything but mist
https://www.wicklowcam.com/

Love that webcam! Amazing views usually.

spookwoman

Seas starting to pick now at tramore

ACitizenErased

Starting to get windy now just outside cork city

gnarbarian

Baybay wrote: »

Love that webcam! Amazing views usually.

Yeah it's a gorgeous view looking down onto the town and up the murrough..
Just a shame you can't see anything at all at the moment

JanuarySnowstor

All quiet in Cork
While it could be severe it could be a very short 2 hour event

Oscar Bravo

Cork Airport down to 983hpa @ 8pm

SweetCaliber

I take it Met are sticking with their current warnings, bit bizzare.

munsterlegend

SweetCaliber wrote: »

I take it Met are sticking with their current warnings, bit bizzare.

Word has it they only care about cork people.

GBX

happyoutscan wrote: »

Sorry I haven't been able to keep up to date with the incoming storm. Would I need to tie up the picnic table (in West Mayo, picnic table is quite heavy)?

Maybe try flip it over if you can.

AdamB

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If we don't have any forum members already in Dungarvan to Youghal especially near the coast there, perhaps somebody with a vehicle within 2 hours drive might like to do a live on the spot report as landfall seems most likely to be close to 9:30-10:00 p.m. on current developments.

Wherever the low crosses the coast, about 30 miles east of there would be the maximum wind and storm surge impact zone. I would imagine there's some seaside caravan parks in that general area, those should probably be toured by local police and visitors warned to take shelter (perhaps this is already happening).

If we do have current thread readers in that impact zone, could you let us know where you are situated and give us hourly or more frequent updates starting around 8 p.m. TIA.

`
I should be in Dungarvan. But I'm at work in Clonmel until 1:30am so I'll be driving through Ellen tonight. I did just request to go home but as Waterford isn't currently on a status red I've been told I have to stay. There will be hundreds of factory workers in Clonmel heading out ito this at 1am... not so wise I reckon..
Is Waterford likely to go red?

Burts Bee

Any North Cork predictions lads??

sdanseo

SweetCaliber wrote: »

I take it Met are sticking with their current warnings, bit bizzare.

Unless they know something we don't (possible) then it's a bit strange for sure. Multiple sources including one they trust well say up to 30km/h overthe red warning boundary, and in a wide area too.

They're damned either way of course, because the last few red warnings have been damp squibs or barely scraped the required speeds.

pad199207

Down to 978mb. Looks to be a drop of 20mb in 7 hours