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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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DOCARCH

Mod Note: Please keep on topic. Daft/silly posts will be removed. Cut out backseat modding.

watlantic

Can we please have a separate thread dedicated to the ubiquitous colour code discussion. It's been discussed endlessly before and every time there's new warning it starts all over again.
As Evelyn Cusack from Met Eireann said on the radio earlier: ''Never mind the colour of the warning...''
Anyway, back to the stormy weather which is imminent according to the latest surface chart from the OPC:

pad199207

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Met Éireann in another awkward "damned if you do and damned if you don't" situation. Very difficult to forecast such an unpredictable track over Ireland from a rapidly developing system. I'll still accept their expertise before an "award winning" spoofer forecasting gusts up to 200km/h.

Post of the day!

DOCARCH

watlantic wrote: »

Can we please have separate thread dedicated to the ubiquitous colour code discussion. It's been discussed endlessly before and every time there's new warning it starts all over again.

Thread here for that debate: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057918791

Oneiric 3

Wave depression currently developing to the south of Ireland, with 'centre' moving in an NNE direction:

Some big cloud tops seem to be developing on the NW side of it, which is what will bring those potentially very heavy rainfalls to the SW later.

emo72

Was in doolin 2 days ago, thousands of happy holiday families all in tents and caravans. I'm assuming they're gone today?

Igotadose

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Wave depression currently developing to the south of Ireland, with 'centre' moving in an NNE direction:

Some big cloud tops seem to be developing on the NW side of it, which is what will bring those potentially very heavy rainfalls to the SW later.

Seems like it's got an 'eye' and is cyclonic, per the resident geophysicist. That's pretty concerning, this looks like a bad one. Figures my garden's at its height.

mmc2010

wind and rain here already in East Cork...

limnam

mmc2010 wrote: »

wind and rain here already in East Cork...

Fairly calm and dry on the south

leahyl

Dead calm in cork city and quiet....

Graces7

SouthWesterly wrote: »

I've not camped in 30 years. I can walk out into my field to experience nature.

Living on the side of a mountain overlooking the Atlantic should be fun tonight!

Yeah.. when I was very new out here, I decided to take a very early walk thinking the dark is so …. deep in nature.. I suddenly realised when out of reach of the house light that I had no idea where I was, which direction was ???? Utterly totally blind dark. However hard I strained my eyes, nothing but black. I knew there was a ditch nearby and was frankly terrified. Common sense took over and I edged to the lane and then inched home. I take a torch with me now.. In gales here I have literally been blown off my feet more than once. So now I am very..... respectful.. of the power of nature and there is no way I would camp in a gale.

Oscar Bravo

Cork Airport reporting just 6 knots of wind at 5pm. Going to ramp up soon.

SleetAndSnow

Can see the clouds rolling into my right and coming in directly off the sea, wind has picked up another bit aswell

[Deleted User]

Graces7 wrote: »

I was living in Connemara when that lady camping in a caravan who thought this way got blown off a cliff in a gust and killed. There needs to be a sensible balance between challenge and danger with common sense mediating. One can leach into the other with great speed. In speeds like this you would not stand a chance in a tent in the open.

There should be definite advice given that all people occupying tents or caravans (In these orange/red warning situations) move to safe "built" shelter, ie check into a hotel, b&b, or go home well in time. I believe that was a particularly well-run caravan site and the owners
very upset by that tragedy which occurred in one of the most beautiful locations in the country.

There will likely be a run on accommodation within easy reach of the coast tonight, and it would be a good thing if caravan/camping site managers were obliged to inform occupants of the weather warning. Many people take these kind of holidays to get away from the usual bad news stories and may not have caught the weather warning.

alentejo

Still cloudy warm day in West Cork.

ninebeanrows

GEM for 1am----usually quite similar to the ECM

gemfr-0-12.png?12

aisling86

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There should be definite advice given that all people occupying tents or caravans (In these orange/red warning situations) move to safe "built" shelter, ie check into a hotel, b&b, or go home well in time. I believe that was a particularly well-run caravan site and the owners
very upset by that tragedy which occurred in one of the most beautiful locations in the country.

There will likely be a run on accommodation within easy reach of the coast tonight, and it would be a good thing if caravan/camping site managers were obliged to inform occupants of the weather warning. Many people take these kind of holidays to get away from the usual bad news stories and may not have caught the weather warning.

It's on the news bulletins every hour! Message from government

Itssoeasy

leahyl wrote: »

Dead calm in cork city and quiet....

It's very weird how calm it is.

BionicRasher

Fastnet seeing gradual rise in wind speed
https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse

Little snowy old me

Brightening up in Dublin. We brought our walk forward to 7pm. Though based on the maps, we will get just a normal gale. No one wants issues with weather in the middle of a pandemic.

coathanger

I see met.ie are giving a yellow warning for Wexford. Yet all the Wexford local weather apps are showing a red warning . Have an appointment tomorrow morning & not sure to cancel it or not !!

DOCARCH

coathanger wrote: »

I see met.ie are giving a yellow warning for Wexford. Yet all the Wexford local weather apps are showing a red warning . Have an appointment tomorrow morning & not sure to cancel it or not !!

Wait until around 8pm. Any changes/updates to warnings should be made by Met Eireann by then.

phormium

Warm and calm here in Kerry, lovely evening for now anyway, have taken down my hanging baskets though and picked all my lovely apples before the wind blows them down!

endainoz

emo72 wrote: »

Was in doolin 2 days ago, thousands of happy holiday families all in tents and caravans. I'm assuming they're gone today?

Indeed most have, there was a mass exodus of campervans out of the village today.

SleetAndSnow

Mist has arrived now in West Cork, first report from the incoming system!

Little snowy old me

Not trolling but am I correct in saying that the downgrades have already started? Its a perfectly reasonable observation to make.

JP Liz V1

Is it 9pm to hit Cork?

Ludo

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Mist has arrived now in West Cork, first report from the incoming system!

It has been heavy mist in the city for last few hours. Normal summer weather so far.

Hawthorn Tree

Rain in Galway but nice and calm still. Early doors. Warm soft rain, my favourite kind.

SleetAndSnow

Ludo wrote: »

It has been heavy mist in the city for last few hours. Normal summer weather so far.

Aye, drove from the city this morning. Was night and day