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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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nthclare

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Get a free pass? ME are routinely slaughtered for scaremongering for issuing too many yellow and orange warning yet this eejit is predicting 185km/h winds and a red warning for half the country and people are trying to defend him.

Edit: Even if the red warning does end up getting extended to other counties it doesn't excuse his carry on. He's constantly giving OTT warnings and getting it correct once shouldn't give him a free pass. We're not going to see anything close to 185km/h, let alone the 200km/h he was going on about earlier.

185 kph to 200 kph winds are absolute wipeouts.

Throw a bag of rubbish out of a car at 185 to 200kph and you'll see what I mean.

Imagine that in a gust... constant for hour's.
Windows would be blown in.
Historical buildings, thatched roofs in Doolin and other places bwould be blown to the Arran Islands.
Because if the winds blowing offshore the east side of a lot of buildings couldn't take the shock and push due to not much pressure on the joists that the western side would be used to.

185kph to 200 seriously

m17

fonecrusher1

How accurate is this website? Is it a load of rubbish or somewhat based on actually weather data?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=351.70,54.98,861

swarmberg

aisling86 wrote: »

https://www.facebook.com/740149726003564/posts/3502589533092889/

He's on Todayfm now :rolleyes:

EmmetSpiceland

pad199207 wrote: »

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster

So, just a bit of wind for Dublin then?

Any “yellow” warning we’ve gotten so far has resulted in very little. So much so, that no one really takes that one seriously, at all. And rightly so.

They need to “look at” the warnings and amend them so that people can take them seriously again.

We’ve been fooled too many times, at this stage.

froog

some serious rain forecast aswell that seems to be flying under the radar if you'll pardon the pun.

SleetAndSnow

Went from no wind here on the west cork coast to a sudden appearance of wind, like a normal autumunal day now. Seagulls have also appeared which is usually a sign of storms at sea!

weisses

DOCARCH wrote: »

Yes, GFS is earlier, what i meant is by 7pm should have both....after that it's storm time!

You just made model watching sound badass .... Well done sir

froog

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

So, just a bit of wind for Dublin then?

Any “yellow” warning we’ve gotten so far has resulted in very little. So much so, that no one really takes that one seriously, at all. And rightly so.

They need to “look at” the warnings and amend them so that people can take them seriously again.

We’ve been fooled too many times, at this stage.

well it is a yellow warning. what do you expect?

odyboody

fonecrusher1 wrote: »

How accurate is this website? Is it a load of rubbish or somewhat based on actually weather data?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=351.70,54.98,861

If you click on the menu, bottom left, it tells you it is based on the GFS. So not a lot of rubbish but then again its just one of the possible models

iLikeWaffles

40-60 knots (avg. ~92 kph) is a prediction that is more realistic, but that is at the worst of it. +100 knots would be about +185 kph

https://www.windy.com/?51.696,-6.531,7

dsmythy

swarmberg wrote: »

He's on Todayfm now :rolleyes:

Mister 150-160km/hr gusts inland himself?

Beechwoodspark

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Noticed similar in maynooth earlier

It put chills up and down my spine.

An ominous high Pitched mournful/lonesome keening for the summer that never came maybe

It didn’t help I was near a graveyard at the time

An awful racket from our feathered friends

Laurali

[can we stop talking about weather forecast personalities on this thread PLEASE!!!!! Absolute drivel.]

Really calm in Galway West here. Calm but very wet.

Oglaigh84

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

So, just a bit of wind for Dublin then?

Any “yellow” warning we’ve gotten so far has resulted in very little. So much so, that no one really takes that one seriously, at all. And rightly so.

They need to “look at” the warnings and amend them so that people can take them seriously again.

We’ve been fooled too many times, at this stage.

Or you could just read what the various levels mean instead of having them being changed because you assume yellow means hurricane type weather

dsmythy

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

So, just a bit of wind for Dublin then?

Any “yellow” warning we’ve gotten so far has resulted in very little. So much so, that no one really takes that one seriously, at all. And rightly so.

They need to “look at” the warnings and amend them so that people can take them seriously again.

We’ve been fooled too many times, at this stage.

Both the wind direction and leaves on trees should mean Dubliners will see something of an aftermath. Trees can get messy fast.

SEPT 23 1989

nthclare wrote: »

185 kph to 200 kph winds are absolute wipeouts.

Throw a bag of rubbish out of a car at 185 to 200kph and you'll see what I mean.

Imagine that in a gust... constant for hour's.
Windows would be blown in.
Historical buildings, thatched roofs in Doolin and other places bwould be blown to the Arran Islands.
Because if the winds blowing offshore the east side of a lot of buildings couldn't take the shock and push due to not much pressure on the joists that the western side would be used to.

185kph to 200 seriously

the rubbish thrown up during the celtic tiger is what I would worry about

we will see tomorrow

EmmetSpiceland

froog wrote: »

well it is a yellow warning. what do you expect?

No warning. Until one is “necessary”. The yellow should be the orange. Then split the red into 2 parts.

2smiggy

swarmberg wrote: »

He's on Todayfm now :rolleyes:

that sums of the state of Today Fm

odyboody

froog wrote: »

well it is a yellow warning. what do you expect?

yellow warning have constantly being talked up by DJ's on various radio stations without them obviously looking to see what the definition of the level is:rolleyes:

weisses

Looking at ME forecast kerry could be a yellow warning

irishfeen

Very dreary and wet day here in North Cork, so calm at the moment though, not a breath of wind. Currently 18.8 DegC, 991.7hpa

weisses

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

It put chills up and down my spine.

An ominous high Pitched mournful/lonesome keening for the summer that never came maybe

It didn’t help I was near a graveyard at the time

An awful racket from our feathered friends

You could be related to graces7

froog

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

No warning. Until one is “necessary”. The yellow should be the orange. Then split the red into 2 parts.

so you just want to recolour the three warning levels into something more confusing? righto.

[Deleted User]

Met Éireann in another awkward "damned if you do and damned if you don't" situation. Very difficult to forecast such an unpredictable track over Ireland from a rapidly developing system. I'll still accept their expertise before an "award winning" spoofer forecasting gusts up to 200km/h.

Misguided1

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

No warning. Until one is “necessary”. The yellow should be the orange. Then split the red into 2 parts.

Red and REALLY RED??;)

Graces7

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Very heavy, warm air on the west cork coast atm. Dry still, but not a breeze which is very unusual when your right across from the sea. Not even the neighbours flag is blowing. Seems like thunder type of weather but unsure of that

That sounds much like here; but we have a very slender breeze if you know where to stand. It is so calm I keep wondering if this is some kind of.... Darker than usual at this time..

EmmetSpiceland

Misguided1 wrote: »

Red and REALLY RED??;)

Haha, almost. The current “yellow” needs to be ditched. All it seems to do is give news outlets something to push.

“Yellow” should become “orange” and with the low end of the “red” changing to “orange” and the high end staying “red”.

At this stage people don’t even pay attention to “orange”, certainly not in Dublin anyway. I get that people living on the west coast can’t ignore them. Even the “red” warning we got here a couple of years ago was a complete “farce”.

munsterlegend

Ok lads enough colours. Focus on Ellen!!

SleetAndSnow

Looks like some very heavy rain coming into the coasts now