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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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fonecrusher1

How accurate is this website? Is it a load of rubbish or somewhat based on actually weather data?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=351.70,54.98,861

m17

nthclare

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Get a free pass? ME are routinely slaughtered for scaremongering for issuing too many yellow and orange warning yet this eejit is predicting 185km/h winds and a red warning for half the country and people are trying to defend him.

Edit: Even if the red warning does end up getting extended to other counties it doesn't excuse his carry on. He's constantly giving OTT warnings and getting it correct once shouldn't give him a free pass. We're not going to see anything close to 185km/h, let alone the 200km/h he was going on about earlier.

185 kph to 200 kph winds are absolute wipeouts.

Throw a bag of rubbish out of a car at 185 to 200kph and you'll see what I mean.

Imagine that in a gust... constant for hour's.
Windows would be blown in.
Historical buildings, thatched roofs in Doolin and other places bwould be blown to the Arran Islands.
Because if the winds blowing offshore the east side of a lot of buildings couldn't take the shock and push due to not much pressure on the joists that the western side would be used to.

185kph to 200 seriously

pad199207

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Leitrim, Roscommon and Sligo

Met Éireann Weather Warning

It will become very windy this evening and tonight, with severe gusts likely. Some flooding likely also, especially in coastal areas.

Valid: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 08:00 Thursday 20/08/2020

Issued: 16:27 Wednesday 19/08/2020

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

12z running now on gfs. Very severe with red level winds running right up centre of South er counties
Red alert to be expanded I'd say

The GFS has backtracked run by run to the ECM it seems.

aisling86

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

It is always a little nervy watching these small scale systems, sometimes timing can be slightly off and they do not develop as expected.

However, i think we can be sure now after examining satellite data in the last 2 or 3 hours than some parts of Ireland are going to be struck by a violent storm system tonight.

Is it still looking like east of cork city will be the worst affected initially?

ninebeanrows

It is always a little nervy watching these small scale systems, sometimes timing can be slightly off and they do not develop as expected.

However, i think we can be sure now after examining satellite data in the last 2 or 3 hours than some parts of Ireland are going to be struck by a violent storm system tonight.

leahyl

DOCARCH wrote: »

ECM and GFS update around 7pm....after that, it's nowcast! Whatever will happen will happen.

The suspense is killing me lol....7 seems very late, we won’t be too far away from the event by that stage.

JanuarySnowstor

12z running now on gfs. Very severe with red level winds running right up centre of South er counties
Red alert to be expanded I'd say

DOCARCH

munsterlegend wrote: »

GFS used be earlier. When did that change?

Yes, GFS is earlier, what i meant is by 7pm should have both....after that it's storm time!

munsterlegend

DOCARCH wrote: »

ECM and GFS update around 7pm....after that, it's nowcast! Whatever will happen will happen.

GFS used be earlier. When did that change?

DOCARCH

leahyl wrote: »

Any more model updates?

ECM and GFS update around 7pm....after that, it's nowcast! Whatever will happen will happen.

Beechwoodspark

leahyl wrote: »

A large group of starlings on a tree out the front of my house making unmerciful noise - methinks they know something is coming! :-D

Noticed similar in maynooth earlier

Oneiric 3

I suppose when we have George Lee or some other gombeen on gombeen RTE later bigging up the event and scaremongering the public they'll get a free pass coz they have 'credibility'.

leahyl

Any more model updates?

DOCARCH

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

There's a couple of well known forum users here quick to shout red alerts at every low pressure or flake of snow.

Yes, but posters on here are not putting themselves forward as 'public information service' like he is/has been doing.

squarecircles

Can we have a technical thread,this is awful rot to have to wade through.

jimmynokia

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

At least he's prepared to put his real name and contact details out there for debate. There's a couple of well known forum users here quick to shout red alerts at every low pressure or flake of snow.

I would trust and go by the educated regular contributors here before anyone else particularly that muppet and anyone can set up a facebook page and put contact info on it.. Can you provide your claims by the way about posters here because I have not seen it.

jimmynokia

Im getting hammered by all his supporters now but a few have seen the truth in fairness too.

Oneiric 3

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Get a free pass? ME are routinely slaughtered for scaremongering for issuing too many yellow and orange warning yet this eejit is predicting 185km/h winds and a red warning for half the country and people are trying to defend him.

Exactly what is he doing that those in the media are not? And I'm sure the media have a far bigger reach than him.

squarecircles

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

https://youtu.be/rp8rERn7qcc

DOCARCH

Mod Note: Please keep on topic and cut out the 'what will the weather like be in X at Y pm/am' posts.

This is still an evolving storm and the track is not nailed down so nobody, with any certainty, can tell what the weather will be like in any particular location at a particular time.

Keep following/reading the thread and keep up to date with Met Eireann forecasts.

Humberto Salazar

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Get a free pass? ME are routinely slaughtered for scaremongering for issuing too many yellow and orange warning yet this eejit is predicting 185km/h winds and a red warning for half the country and people are trying to defend him.

At least he's prepared to put his real name and contact details out there for debate. There's a couple of well known forum users here quick to shout red alerts at every low pressure or flake of snow.

ninebeanrows

Looks to be undergoing rapid deepening now going by satellite imagery.

Pelvis Parsley

He's a bad joke. I've reported it too.

jimmynokia

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Don't know who he is, but is he any different to these cretins?

https://www.google.com/search?q=met+eireann&sxsrf=ALeKk02XCdaSapNTttr6aXs45x1dw4TGpw:1597849246799&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjd_ImmxKfrAhWAShUIHYkCDH4Q_AUoAXoECBcQAw&cshid=1597849316049508&biw=1366&bih=625

How is that these morons get a free pass while some random guy on facebook gets all the hate?

These do have him on the radio,newstalk and the other southern county stations

munsterlegend

jimmynokia wrote: »

You beat me too it he is a scaremongering red top

The 06ECM from this morning is not too far of this! Problem is though he states these figures as definitely going to happen.

leahyl

A large group of starlings on a tree out the front of my house making unmerciful noise - methinks they know something is coming! :-D

Oneiric 3

jimmynokia wrote: »

You beat me too it he is a scaremongering red top

Don't know who he is, but is he any different to these cretins?

https://www.google.com/search?q=met+eireann&sxsrf=ALeKk02XCdaSapNTttr6aXs45x1dw4TGpw:1597849246799&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjd_ImmxKfrAhWAShUIHYkCDH4Q_AUoAXoECBcQAw&cshid=1597849316049508&biw=1366&bih=625

How is that these morons get a free pass while some random guy on facebook gets all the hate?

jammiedodgers

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Yep I’m not so concerned with mr doom and gloom Georgie boy but I’m more concerned about wether local county councils are

Aware

And taking active measures in terms of flood defence

And also utilities like ESB and the army if need be

Luckily Met Eireann aren't keeping the forecasts and warnings a secret.