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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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spookwoman

radar is back

Bsal

Looking at the ECM model I really think it's taking the mick with this storm, the GFS looks more believable at the moment to me but we shall see how this pans out tonight I guess.

Beechwoodspark

Are the national emergency planning team working on this does anyone know

I mean the ppl we see on the news in such events - usually met Éireann are in attendance and various ministers, reps from the guarda and the army etc.

Beechwoodspark

Little snowy old me wrote: »

We are meeting at 8.30. Everyone walking by sunset. Its to raise money for a local cause. the sunset part is a quick socially distanced meet up of about 12 walkers to hear about the cause.

Ok fair enough. Still, looks like a rough old night for a charity walk if you ask me.

munsterlegend

Bsal wrote: »

Looking at the ECM model I really think it's taking the mick with this storm, the GFS looks more believable at the moment to me but we shall see how this pans out tonight I guess.

ECM seems to have had a better handle on the pressure at least according to Matt Hugo. Anyway I haven’t a clue so we’ll the experts argue on that and tomorrow will tell all.

Graces7

Heavy rain here now; vertical. No wind

Back later....

leahyl

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Are the national emergency planning team working on this does anyone know

Nah sure the red is only for Cork, it’s up to us to look after ourselves down here :-P

Jeju

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

What's the story with camping? Myself and the kids are in Kerry for the week camping. Haven't been away all summer. We're planning on staying put. Jump in to the van if things get bad, suitcases are in the tents to weigh them down.

Just to put a bit of balance to these "I am planning on" posts. I am in the south East and was planning on going to bed at 11:00, do you think I will get to sleep before this blows over or should I stay up and let it pass?

Oscar Bravo

Waterford TAF giving gusts up to 55 knots. Lots of people on campsites . Could be a dangerous night.
BECMG 1918/1921 13025G40KT 9999 SCT012
BECMG 1921/1923 22034G55KT TEMPO 1921/1924 RA BKN008

Beechwoodspark

amadangomor wrote: »

Generally Pintmen would have enough ballast to not be concerned. Think of the kids though

The official advice to paddy pintman - “Few pints - be grand”

ðŸ˜‚

Beechwoodspark

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Are the national emergency planning team working on this does anyone know

I mean the ppl we see on the news in such events - usually met Éireann are in attendance and various ministers, reps from the guarda and the army etc.

Bumping this. Does anyone know?

Appears to be very serious if they are NOT working on this

Storm 10

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Are the national emergency planning team working on this does anyone know

I mean the ppl we see on the news in such events - usually met Éireann are in attendance and various ministers, reps from the guarda and the army etc.

You can be sure they will roll out Mr Doom and Gloom man George Lee to tell us all whats coming, the last time he warned us that we could be wiped out nothing happened and he did not come back the following day to explain himself.

SleetAndSnow

Very heavy, warm air on the west cork coast atm. Dry still, but not a breeze which is very unusual when your right across from the sea. Not even the neighbours flag is blowing. Seems like thunder type of weather but unsure of that

Donegal Ken

Rainfall warnings

Met Éireann will be issuing rainfall warnings soon with possible updated wind warnings also.

Oneiric 3

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Waterford TAF giving gusts up to 55 knots. Lots of people on campsites . Could be a dangerous night.
BECMG 1918/1921 13025G40KT 9999 SCT012
BECMG 1921/1923 22034G55KT TEMPO 1921/1924 RA BKN008

Seems that it is coming more into line with the UKMO projection.

I haven't gone camping in years, but must say that I would enjoy, rather than fear wind speeds like this if I was out camping tonight. Would be part of the challenge, which I would have thought was a big part of the camping experience.

leahyl

Donegal Ken wrote: »

Rainfall warnings

Met Éireann will be issuing rainfall warnings soon with possible updated wind warnings also.

How do you know this?

[Deleted User]

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

What's the story with camping? Myself and the kids are in Kerry for the week camping. Haven't been away all summer. We're planning on staying put. Jump in to the van if things get bad, suitcases are in the tents to weigh them down.

You will indeed be losty, very losty after this. You'll get to see parts of kerry you never thought possible

Bsal

New TAF out for Cork still going with 40% chance of 75kt gust

TAF AMD EICK 191436Z 1914/2012 05010KT 4000 BR BKN005 TEMPO 1914/1920 1800 SCT002 BKN003 PROB30 TEMPO 1914/1917 0700 FG BKN002 BECMG 1914/1916 20008KT BECMG 1917/1919 14018G30KT BECMG 1920/1922 20035G60KT TEMPO 1920/1924 5000 RA BKN008 PROB40 TEMPO 1921/1923 22040G75KT BECMG 1923/2001 21025G45KT BECMG 2001/2003 20025G40KT TEMPO 2003/2012 4000 SHRA SCT010 SCT020CB

[Deleted User]

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Seems that it is coming more into line with the UKMO projection.

I haven't gone camping in years, but must say that I would enjoy, rather than fear wind speeds like this if I was out camping tonight. Would be part of the challenge, which I would have thought was a big part of the camping experience.

Easily said from a brick house:D

Hawthorn Tree

I think we need a good storm to distract us. The power of nature can be amazing.

Beechwoodspark

Storm 10 wrote: »

You can be sure they will roll out Mr Doom and Gloom man George Lee to tell us all whats coming, the last time he warned us that we could be wiped out nothing happened and he did not come back the following day to explain himself.

Yep I’m not so concerned with mr doom and gloom Georgie boy but I’m more concerned about wether local county councils are

Aware

And taking active measures in terms of flood defence

And also utilities like ESB and the army if need be

Oneiric 3

SouthWesterly wrote: »

Easily said from a brick house:D

True, but I thought camping was a way to embrace the great outdoors, warts 'n' all.

munsterlegend

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Yep I’m not so concerned with mr doom and gloom Georgie boy but I’m more concerned about wether local county councils are

Aware

And taking active measures in terms of flood defence

And also utilities like ESB and the army if need be

Yep we saw in west cork the problem of blocked drains. Millions of euros of damage this week.

ChikiChiki

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Seems that it is coming more into line with the UKMO projection.

I haven't gone camping in years, but must say that I would enjoy, rather than fear wind speeds like this if I was out camping tonight. Would be part of the challenge, which I would have thought was a big part of the camping experience.

Don't know about that. Wasn't someone blown off a cliff in Galway a while back.

Errashareesh

A storm that wouldn't cause destruction would be great for clearing the air.

But unfortunately the one being forecast may be a destructive one, and I don't know why anyone would want that.

Red alert means inadvisable to go outdoors unless necessary.

Storm 10

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Don't know about that. Wasn't someone blown off a cliff in Galway a while back.

Correct a US tourist in a caravan near Clifden caravan ripped from its base into the sea.

Donegal Ken

leahyl wrote: »

How do you know this?

I was chatting with somwone in Glasnevin

Lady_North1

Graces7 wrote: »

Thank you.

As for the furballs; they have various hidey holes. When the gale gets going opening the door may not be possible.. or prudent.

Brighter out here but no sun.

Welcome back Grace7. Good to see you posting again.

[Deleted User]

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

True, but I thought camping was a way to embrace the great outdoors, warts 'n' all.

I've not camped in 30 years. I can walk out into my field to experience nature.

Living on the side of a mountain overlooking the Atlantic should be fun tonight!

Foggy Jew

Storm 10 wrote: »

You can be sure they will roll out Mr Doom and Gloom man George Lee to tell us all whats coming, the last time he warned us that we could be wiped out nothing happened and he did not come back the following day to explain himself.

If ever there was a harbinger of doom it's Gorgeous George. He delights in it.