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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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Little snowy old me

listermint wrote: »

Sunset walk in this weather...... Yeah. Erm..

Sunset as in the time of sunset.... but you know well what I meant

jimmynokia

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

Amazing the amount of people I know who like his Facebook page and follow him. The comments section is 'ah Cathal you're a star', 'thanks so much Cathal you're so much better than Met Eireann'. I can't believe intelligent people I know follow this attention seeker.

He even came up with a new colour code for a night in June when he said thunderstorms would rival July 1985. Purple for extremely extreme weather!! Needless to say nobody saw lightning that particular night.

I've ripped him asunder and called him a rollox today and he tried to defend it by message.

listermint

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Sunset as in the time of sunset.... but you know well what I meant

You want to go for a nice walk in the pissings of rain when there's no daylight and a storm coming up the coast...sure look I suppose it takes all sorts.

seamus

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Is Dublin likely to go Orange? We have a socailly distanced group sunset walk planned in the local park at 9pm. Lots of trees and big branches there. Im thinking of canceling but so many mixed messages.

In all seriousness, this has the potential to be a very bad one.

We typically get these storms into mid-late Autumn when the trees have lost most of their leaf cover. This storm hitting at the end of Summer means the trees still have their leaves and this creates a "sail" effect, catching a lot more of the wind and making broken branches and downed trees considerably more likely.

Even if it's only a yellow warning for Dublin, there's nothing to lose in staying home tonight, and if you're in the Southwest, I'd definitely avoid travelling if you can.

redsteveireland

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Probability maps for 1am tonight from the latest European.

Gusts greater than 48 knots:

And for gusts > 64 knots:

That looks a long way off the forecast for Galway around 1am on met.ie even after the latest reduction.

dmc17

seamus wrote: »

In all seriousness, this has the potential to be a very bad one.

We typically get these storms into mid-late Autumn when the trees have lost most of their leaf cover. This storm hitting at the end of Summer means the trees still have their leaves and this creates a "sail" effect, catching a lot more of the wind and making broken branches and downed trees considerably more likely.

Even if it's only a yellow warning for Dublin, there's nothing to lose in staying home tonight, and if you're in the Southwest, I'd definitely avoid travelling if you can.

I'd imagine all the rain of late won't help either, with the ground being soft

adocholiday

Not sure how accurate it is but Windy.com shows ICON not doing a whole lot, and ECM and GFS have the centre of the storm moving up the Mid to East of the country. Still a lot of uncertainty with this with only a few hours to go.

Pintman Paddy Losty

What's the story with camping? Myself and the kids are in Kerry for the week camping. Haven't been away all summer. We're planning on staying put. Jump in to the van if things get bad, suitcases are in the tents to weigh them down.

highdef

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Is Dublin likely to go Orange? We have a socailly distanced group sunset walk planned in the local park at 9pm. Lots of trees and big branches there. Im thinking of canceling but so many mixed messages.

Sunset is around 20:42 so you'll be too late for a sunset walk at 21:00 :P

Beechwoodspark

Yeah I was just about to say you will have completely missed sunset at 9 pm

Maybe give it a miss tonight and - check the sunset times before venturing out next time!

Storm 10

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

What's the story with camping? Myself and the kids are in Kerry for the week camping. Haven't been away all summer. We're planning on staying put. Jump in to the van if things get bad, suitcases are in the tents to weigh them down.

Surely thats something you should decide

jackrussel

why are people replying to the troll? they do the same in every event thread, usually about some hut in donegal

Mooooo

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

What's the story with camping? Myself and the kids are in Kerry for the week camping. Haven't been away all summer. We're planning on staying put. Jump in to the van if things get bad, suitcases are in the tents to weigh them down.

Id say find a room for the night if ye can

jam_mac_jam

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

What's the story with camping? Myself and the kids are in Kerry for the week camping. Haven't been away all summer. We're planning on staying put. Jump in to the van if things get bad, suitcases are in the tents to weigh them down.

They are advising everyone camping to pack up straight away. All over the country.

It was on the Newstalk news at three. As you have kids with you I would pack up.

[Deleted User]

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

What's the story with camping? Myself and the kids are in Kerry for the week camping. Haven't been away all summer. We're planning on staying put. Jump in to the van if things get bad, suitcases are in the tents to weigh them down.

You brought suitcases camping?

if it was me i'd be booking into a b&b for the night.

jam_mac_jam

jackrussel wrote: »

why are people replying to the troll? they do the same in every event thread, usually about some hut in donegal

Didn't realise. Sorry.

amadangomor

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

What's the story with camping? Myself and the kids are in Kerry for the week camping. Haven't been away all summer. We're planning on staying put. Jump in to the van if things get bad, suitcases are in the tents to weigh them down.

Generally Pintmen would have enough ballast to not be concerned. Think of the kids though

CirrusBusiness

Is this storm hitting the West or South and South east? Current warnings have many people thinking this is a SW and W storm, yet if you look at the latest charts it shows the highest gusts hitting Cork, Waterford, Wexford, Kilkenny, Carlow and Wicklow. Why are the latter only yellow? Arome shows Orange winds. Folk need time to tie things down in their gardens and prepare for this storm. I have a gut feeling this one is going to be a bad one and everyone around here is thinking it's going up the West based on the warnings. Off out to dismantle garden furniture and store things away. Hopefully there is some more clarity on the storms track, intensity and warning levels by tea-time. We are on an elevated site near Mt Leinster so not taking chances.

irishrover99

Will I get a day off tomorrow because of the red warning ?ðŸš¨. Oh **** WFH. Dam you CV19. You ruin everything ðŸ˜‰

Hurrache

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

What's the story with camping? Myself and the kids are in Kerry for the week camping. Haven't been away all summer. We're planning on staying put. Jump in to the van if things get bad, suitcases are in the tents to weigh them down.

Not sure if you've been in violent winds when camping before, but you'll also be looking for your suitcases afterwards.

Deleted User wrote: »

You brought suitcases camping?

It's the best way to root out and find clothes easily!

garyha

Latest ECMWF, looks extremely dangrous for the south-east on this run. Don't envy Met Eireann right now having to call it.

leahyl

garyha wrote: »

Latest ECMWF, looks extremely dangrous for the south-east on this run. Don't envy Met Eireann right now having to call it.

Direct hit for Cork still?

CirrusBusiness

garyha wrote: »

Latest ECMWF, looks extremely dangrous for the south-east on this run. Don't envy Met Eireann right now having to call it.

They need to call it soon. Folk need time to batten down the hatches.

Oneiric 3

Interesting forecast charts that shows pressure changes averaged out over a 3 hour running period for later tonight and into the small hours:

Rapid fall in pressure, initially on the south coast, followed by a rapid rise right up through the middle of the country. Shows how quickly this system is forecast to cross over.

Little snowy old me

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Yeah I was just about to say you will have completely missed sunset at 9 pm

Maybe give it a miss tonight and - check the sunset times before venturing out next time!

We are meeting at 8.30. Everyone walking by sunset. Its to raise money for a local cause. the sunset part is a quick socially distanced meet up of about 12 walkers to hear about the cause.

leahyl

CirrusBusiness wrote: »

They need to call it soon. Folk need time to batten down the hatches.

You should probably do it anyway just to be safe, still gonna be an orange warning for a lot of other counties.

Gaoth Laidir

The 06Z ECM has not budged a bit and is still going all Irish Weather Channel on us. Maybe a few notches less along the east coast but still a fair whack up the centre of the country. This is one hell of an interesting night ahead to see if it verifies...

davo2001

irishrover99 wrote: »

Will I get a day off tomorrow because of the red warning ?&#55357;&#57000;. Oh **** WFH. Dam you CV19. You ruin everything &#55357;&#56841;

Never know, the electricity might go yet!

adocholiday

Met Eireann's current average wind predictions for Wicklow tonight are nothing too unusual, around 45 kph. I know it's the gusts that are the risk but it's amazing how at odds their forecast is with other models. If I was just looking at the Met Eireann chart and nothing else I wouldn't look twice at it but that ECMWF is a whole other story!

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The 06Z ECM has not budged a bit and is still going all Irish Weather Channel on us. Maybe a few notches less along the east coast but still a fair whack up the centre of the country. This is one hell of an interesting night ahead to see if it verifies...

Should be a lot more counties orange at least based on that.