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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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Gaoth Laidir

I would warn people about possible coastal flooding in northern Dublin Bay and also Salthill during the night. Don't be parking cars along the seafront in either place as onshore winds will coincide with peak tides at both locations. A strong southeasterly can cause seiche flows in Dublin Bay, and we all know about what happens in Salthill.

Gaoth Laidir

12Z analysis, showing Ellen 990 hPa northwest of the Galicia coast.

[Deleted User]

Can we open a book on what time and windspeed we'll have at the salthill diving board and people in for a dip?

Edit. And of course the cars flooded in the car park

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

12Z analysis, showing Ellen 990 hPa northwest of the Galicia

GL what are met Éireann seeing in the models that makes it red for Cork? Are they just ignoring the GFS/ICON?

cherryghost

Would bet on Waterford upgrading to red, maybe NW taken off Orange, possibly Wexford red. Moving more easterly across most charts

froog

cork actually looks very tame on both ICON and GFS now. not sure where this red is coming from.

RubyK

SweetCaliber wrote: »

Yeah, just got notification that they are closing the prom in Tramore from 4pm today until further notice. Will be a wild one regardless with high tide.

Hope there are no tents camped on the back strand like last week, they won't last long!! :eek:

Gaoth Laidir

munsterlegend wrote: »

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

12Z analysis, showing Ellen 990 hPa northwest of the Galicia

GL what are met Éireann seeing in the models that makes it red for Cork? Are they just ignoring the GFS/ICON?

This. Up to Force 12 just off the coast, according to their latest Harmonie run. They don't use the GFS.

SleetAndSnow

Not sure what model M.E is using now , looks to be ECM? Most models now show the east as orange

SweetCaliber

RubyK wrote: »

Hope there are no tents camped on the back strand like last week, they won't last long!! :eek:

I've a feeling the circus vegas tent will be in my back garden in the morning, it has no sides on it so hopefully they put them on tonight

RubyK

SweetCaliber wrote: »

I've a feeling the circus vegas tent will be in my back garden in the morning, it has no sides on it so hopefully they put them on tonight :D

I forgot about the Circus being there too!!

endainoz

I'm kinda seeing it as not a massive issue on the Clare coast as its moving further east, seems to be a lot of uncertainty all the same. Still due to lack of flights in the air to collect weather data?

With all that said, I do live near the coast and there has been a huge exodus of campervans from the village today. Glad it's being taken relatively seriously, not cool having your campervan turned over.

Oneiric 3

Probability maps for 1am tonight from the latest European.

Gusts greater than 48 knots:

And for gusts > 64 knots:

Little snowy old me

Is Dublin likely to go Orange? We have a socailly distanced group sunset walk planned in the local park at 9pm. Lots of trees and big branches there. Im thinking of canceling but so many mixed messages.

SleetAndSnow

Well down at my house on the west cork coast now, will keep you all updated later on tonight I suppose haha. Expectations have dropped but since the coast is exposed might be a interesting night too! Very calm here atm though and very humid, not misting like the city.

Sawduck

Will tipperary be bad tonight, I have to travel from north to South tipp, I remember travelling during one of the storms last year and trees were falling on the road it was a nightmare, don't really want a repeat of that

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

munsterlegend wrote: »

This. Up to Force 12 just off the coast, according to their latest Harmonie run. They don't use the GFS.

listermint

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Is Dublin likely to go Orange? We have a socailly distanced group sunset walk planned in the local park at 9pm. Lots of trees and big branches there. Im thinking of canceling but so many mixed messages.

Sunset walk in this weather...... Yeah. Erm..

munsterlegend

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Well down at my house on the west cork coast now, will keep you all updated later on tonight I suppose haha. Expectations have dropped but since the coast is exposed might be a interesting night too! Very calm here atm though and very humid, not misting like the city.

Will be wild enough still with gusts.

Meteorite58

Wild night of heavy rain and threat of thunderstorms in the SW tonight / early morning. Widespread threat of thunderstorms tomorrow with heavy squally showers.

mrtom

I understand this storm originated with the weakening tail of a hurricane crossing the Atlantic. Then the depression unexpectedly deepened mid Atlantic, influenced by the Jet stream. In lay mans terms what are the forces at play here?

Gaoth Laidir

UKMO analysed Ellen as 987 hPa and about 650 km south of the Cork coast. It'll be fairly motoring to cover that distance in the next 12 hours...

sumtings

Sawduck wrote: »

Will tipperary be bad tonight, I have to travel from north to South tipp, I remember travelling during one of the storms last year and trees were falling on the road it was a nightmare, don't really want a repeat of that

I don't know what time you are travelling at but on Met Eireann's current run tipp looks like it's getting a hit of this between 9pm and 1am, with it being strongest from about 10pm to 12:00

Gaoth Laidir

mrtom wrote: »

I understand this storm originated with the weakening tail of a hurricane crossing the Atlantic. Then the depression unexpectedly deepened mid Atlantic, influenced by the Jet stream. In lay mans terms what are the forces at play here?

A strong arctic outbreak from northeastern Canada/Greenland coincided with a frontal zone lying across the central Atlantic, into which the remnant moisture of Kyle (which only ever became a 45-knot tropical storm, not a hurricane) got entrained. The strong temperature and moisture gradient along this front strengthened the jetstream, and with ex-Kyles moisture just in the right place under this jetstream it's causing massive upward motion and falling pressure at the surface.

This time yesterday Kyle's remnan was that flabby 1006-hPa low/wave west of the Azores, at the bottom of the chart.

ChikiChiki

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Is Dublin likely to go Orange? We have a socailly distanced group sunset walk planned in the local park at 9pm. Lots of trees and big branches there. Im thinking of canceling but so many mixed messages.

I take it your not in Dublin now.

Mullaghteelin

I don't know how reputable the Euro4 model is, but it also has the core of strongest winds roaring up the Irish Sea, a shift east from last night. Cork certainly warranted a red warning based on the previous run of this model.
I was suprised at lunchtime when Met Éireann made no changes to the warnings.

munsterlegend

listermint wrote: »

Sunset walk in this weather...... Yeah. Erm..

More chance of seeing snow.

Gaoth Laidir

UKMO have the low 975 hPa and just north of Malin Head at 06Z tomorrow. That developing cold front straddling the Kerry coast could pepp things up a little down there during the morning.

antodeco

munsterlegend wrote: »

More chance of seeing snow.

Woah woah woah. You cant just waltz in here dropping the S bomb like that. Do you want boards servers to crash again?

munsterlegend

antodeco wrote: »

Woah woah woah. You cant just waltz in here dropping the S bomb like that. Do you want boards servers to crash again?

Thought I could sneak it in with the red warning excitement. You got me.