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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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mumo3

m17 wrote: »

Storm Ellen out in the Atlantic

Which site are you using to watch it?

kilkenny31

RobertKK wrote: »

Yep, I mean Kilkenny went red warning during Darwin, when all hell was breaking lose, it was too late but warranted.

I know they have to be really sure before issuing red.

I remember that day. I was in college in WIT they closed the college in the middle of the storm so everybody was sent home. At least this storm comes at a time when schools etc are closed and its late in the evening/night so most people should be at home. Darwin could have been a disaster for Kilkenny/Waterford.

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Where's my apology?? Lol

A stopped clock! You were on about rain anyway lol

pnpweirdo

RobertKK wrote: »

Yep, I mean Kilkenny went red warning during Darwin, when all hell was breaking lose, it was too late but warranted.

I know they have to be really sure before issuing red.

Same as limerick city. When it was too late. Serious destruction. It was like a freight train outside the house

JanuarySnowstor

Where's my apology?? Lol

RobertKK

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

I think more than Cork will go red. Every 2 hours Met Eireann are incrementally increasing warnings. It's measured, cagey and we've seen it before. Darwin 2014 especially.

Yep, I mean Kilkenny went red warning during Darwin, when all hell was breaking lose, it was too late but warranted.

I know they have to be really sure before issuing red.

Oscar Bravo

A mention of 75 knot gusts on the Cork TAF , albeit a small chance. Rare though!

BECMG 1920/1922 20035G60KT TEMPO 1920/1924 5000 RA BKN008
PROB40 TEMPO 1921/1923 22040G75KT
BECMG 1923/2001 21025G45KT

m17

Storm Ellen out in the Atlantic

munsterlegend

aisling86 wrote: »

I reckon direct into city & worst winds east cork. Cant imagine I'll see full impact in macroom..

Afternoon models will be interesting.

aisling86

Meteorite58 wrote: »

HARMONIE 06Z out now and showing strongest winds come ashore around Cork and run straight up through the country, keeping the strongest winds in the Eastern half of the country from what I can make out, 160km + at landfall, 120 to130+ at its strongest moving inland up through the country, more like 100km/h towards the E.

????

I reckon direct into city & worst winds east cork. Cant imagine I'll see full impact in macroom..

markjbloggs

As sure as night follows day, when a major storm approaches - Shannon radar goes down with "technical faults".

Meteorite58

HARMONIE 06Z out now and showing strongest winds come ashore around Cork and run straight up through the country, keeping the strongest winds in the Eastern half of the country from what I can make out, 160km + at landfall, 120 to130+ at its strongest moving inland up through the country, more like 100km/h towards the E.

????

Drumpot

So it’s not gonna be too bad for the east I’m presuming?

Was just out running on the beach and in Bettystown and it was windy enough.

Thanks for the updates , always enjoy reading these threads.

spookwoman

Thewife wrote: »

Is a red alert for Waterford likely ?

I wouldnt be surprised. Will just have to watch how it goes.

froog

am i missing something here? the ICON on ventusky from 9pm to midnight looks very tame.

Wild Field 1831

I think more than Cork will go red. Every 2 hours Met Eireann are incrementally increasing warnings. It's measured, cagey and we've seen it before. Darwin 2014 especially.

Graces7

pad199207 wrote: »

I think this is the first time I’ve ever seen Met Eireann not mention wind speeds in a wind warning.

Yes I noticed that too. Someone said that they were not sure how strong they would be?

munsterlegend

pad199207 wrote: »

I think this is the first time I’ve ever seen Met Eireann not mention wind speeds in a wind warning.

Yep very unusual. I wonder is it the sting jet that was referred to earlier is the danger for cork. Wording is quite severe as you would expect for a red warning.

pad199207

I think this is the first time I’ve ever seen Met Eireann not mention wind speeds in a wind warning.

Wild Field 1831

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Ah yeah, he's given a red alert for the southern half of the country and is going on about 200km/h winds. Sure that's close enough to what ME are saying.

I actually think in old parlance 'he's not all there'.

m17

Mourne mountains this morning

redsteveireland

Storm 10 wrote: »

IWC not too far off now given ME red warning for Cork

Over-hypes every event, so he's bound to get something near enough right every now and again. A stopped clock and all that. As this is the boards.ie forum I would rather people didn't discuss his antics here, its not what I come here to read.

Thewife

Is a red alert for Waterford likely ?

mmc2010

Marty Bird wrote: »

Joking aside will it be that bad ?wife is considering cancelling our hotel.

I would think the views will be amazing, depending on if you're into storm watching. If you're staying in the Walter Raleigh or Redbarn, you're looking right over the sea.

Wild Field 1831

Storm 10 wrote: »

IWC not too far off now given ME red warning for Cork

He gives out red alerts for every event. He's bound to get it right when a severe one does come.

He'll get a decade out of it then saying he saw it coming a day before Met Eireann.

SeaFields

DOCARCH wrote: »

Here's the full latest warning from ME.

STATUS RED - WIND WARNING FOR CORK
Between 9pm and midnight Storm Ellen will produce a core of very severe and destructive winds.

Issued: 11:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020

Valid from: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 23:59 Wednesday 19/08/2020

STATUS ORANGE - WIND WARNING FOR MUNSTER, GALWAY AND MAYO
Storm Ellen will track over Ireland this evening and tonight bringing severe and damaging winds. Heavy rainfall and storm surge will result in some flooding.

Issued: 11:22 Wednesday 19/08/2020

Valid from: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 06:00 Thursday 20/08/2020

STATUS YELLOW - WIND WARNING FOR IRELAND
It will become very windy on Wednesday night and throughout the day on Thursday. Severe gusts are likely and there is a risk of some disruption. Due to the combination of storm surge, spring tides and onshore winds there is a potential risk of coastal flooding.

Issued: 15:00 Tuesday 18/08/2020

Valid from: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 23:59 Thursday 20/08/2020

There's a status red marine warning too. That could be important given the time of year this is hitting and many people being on the coast on hols. Granted the time of day it's hitting and the forewarning should mitigate risk.

nacho libre

Ninthlife wrote: »

Id like to know this too..

Also i sit on in Sth West Kildare on the border of Carlow and Laois. Any idea if it will be yellow or orange and should I weigh the trampoline down

In terms of intensity, i can't see the gusts being as strong as the ECM were showing. Met Eireann have a Yellow for your area. Parts of the south east could end up in orange terrority, but as MT Cranium was saying this could end up being quite localised.
In any event it's best to secure the trampoline.

Storm 10

IWC not too far off now given ME red warning for Cork

DOCARCH

Here's the full latest warning from ME.

STATUS RED - WIND WARNING FOR CORK
Between 9pm and midnight Storm Ellen will produce a core of very severe and destructive winds.

Issued: 11:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020

Valid from: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 23:59 Wednesday 19/08/2020

STATUS ORANGE - WIND WARNING FOR MUNSTER, GALWAY AND MAYO
Storm Ellen will track over Ireland this evening and tonight bringing severe and damaging winds. Heavy rainfall and storm surge will result in some flooding.

Issued: 11:22 Wednesday 19/08/2020

Valid from: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 06:00 Thursday 20/08/2020

STATUS YELLOW - WIND WARNING FOR IRELAND
It will become very windy on Wednesday night and throughout the day on Thursday. Severe gusts are likely and there is a risk of some disruption. Due to the combination of storm surge, spring tides and onshore winds there is a potential risk of coastal flooding.

Issued: 15:00 Tuesday 18/08/2020

Valid from: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 23:59 Thursday 20/08/2020

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