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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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Wild Field 1831

Donegal Ken wrote: »

He over hypes every storm and drop of rain that falls. He is Irelands version of the daily express. Met Éireann have a team of fully qualified meteorologists and have much more technology than he ever will have. Putting out bogus warnings like he has done is dangerous and the day a actual proper red warning needs to be issued some will ignore because he issues them once or twice a week. I know most of the the forecasts pages have this view also.

Amazing the amount of people I know who like his Facebook page and follow him. The comments section is 'ah Cathal you're a star', 'thanks so much Cathal you're so much better than Met Eireann'. I can't believe intelligent people I know follow this attention seeker.

He even came up with a new colour code for a night in June when he said thunderstorms would rival July 1985. Purple for extremely extreme weather!! Needless to say nobody saw lightning that particular night.

Bejubby

Graces7 wrote: »

Anyone skill re tide tables please? Just been out and a very low tide; sand exposed. Patches of blue skies but massing dark clouds swarming in. Very dramatic.

So when the tide turns? Rather lovely out but clearly not going to last.

Here Grace,go to locations and pick the nearest to you,then scroll down.
www.tidetimes.org.uk

davo2001

Ah FFS, i just got a new fence built last week, well i suppose this will be a good test of it :-/

Tipp/Clare border region.

SleetAndSnow

Awh sh**.. waiting on the bus down to west cork now so hopefully there's some show but no damage at the same time

pad199207

Just to note that last time Met Eireann mentioned “destructive” in the warnings was Ophelia

pad199207

Status Red - Wind warning for Cork

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Between 9pm and midnight Storm Ellen will produce a core of very severe and destructive winds.

Valid: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 23:59 Wednesday 19/08/2020

Issued: 11:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020

Donegal Ken

Indestructable wrote: »

Ireland's Weather Channel is really going for this one. He has a huge following so might cause some distress, I wonder will Met Eireann follow suit.

He over hypes every storm and drop of rain that falls. He is Irelands version of the daily express. Met Éireann have a team of fully qualified meteorologists and have much more technology than he ever will have. Putting out bogus warnings like he has done is dangerous and the day a actual proper red warning needs to be issued some will ignore because he issues them once or twice a week. I know most of the the forecasts pages have this view also.

Ninthlife

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I’d probably do it as a precaution anyway.

Flower baskets are down. Parasol is in. I just need a second pair of hands to move the garden furniture. It’s rattan so it’s quite light.

Yea i will do the same. I usually do once I see these threads but last couple of times it wasnt really necessary.

i will go out once the rain stops so

pauldry

Rain in Southwest looks severe.

A rough night by all accounts

Marty Bird

Ninthlife wrote: »

Youghal be careful

Joking aside will it be that bad ?wife is considering cancelling our hotel.

Graces7

dmc17 wrote: »

Low tide should be around 12:40 in the mayo area with high around 18:45. It will be lower and higher than usual over the next few days

Ah thanks; I will go out and look in a few minutes. It was already very low. Sky darkening again now. Those dark clouds look formidable.

pauldry

Rain to Southwest a 9pm tonight looks ominous

dmc17

Graces7 wrote: »

Anyone skill re tide tables please? Just been out and a very low tide; sand exposed. Patches of blue skies but massing dark clouds swarming in. Very dramatic.

So when the tide turns? Rather lovely out but clearly not going to last.

Low tide should be around 12:40 in the mayo area with high around 18:45. It will be lower and higher than usual over the next few days

aisling86

Hurrache wrote: »

Because otherwise it's saying camping with kids in Ireland is stupid?

No I didnt I said in the group. The level of stupidity being shown in the group currently is though. Most asking is it safe to stay where they are on campsites in tents for tonight.

Hurrache

optogirl wrote: »

OP meant there is some stupidity on the Camping With Kids in Ireland Group

Ah, I knew there must have been something more to it. It's a private group so dunno what they're up to.

Meteorite58

Latest French models still keeping strongest winds to the East. WRF keeps to East.

Xenji

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Met Éireann still just going with Munster , Clare and Galway in an Orange warning

Mayo as well.

[Deleted User]

Ninthlife wrote: »

Id like to know this too..

Also i sit on in Sth West Kildare on the border of Carlow and Laois. Any idea if it will be yellow or orange and should I weigh the trampoline down

I’d probably do it as a precaution anyway.

Flower baskets are down. Parasol is in. I just need a second pair of hands to move the garden furniture. It’s rattan so it’s quite light.

no.8

Ah yes...because an event that lasts say 48hrs max. Means you certainly can't make use of the 3-4 months of the summer holiday season.

So i presume you will never visit the southern states of the US (given your logic)

optogirl

Hurrache wrote: »

Because otherwise it's saying camping with kids in Ireland is stupid?

OP meant there is some stupidity on the Camping With Kids in Ireland Group

Ninthlife

typhoony wrote: »

can you say what the difference is between ECM and UKMO?

Id like to know this too..

Also i sit on in Sth West Kildare on the border of Carlow and Laois. Any idea if it will be yellow or orange and should I weigh the trampoline down

Graces7

Anyone skill re tide tables please? Just been out and a very low tide; sand exposed. Patches of blue skies but massing dark clouds swarming in. Very dramatic.

So when the tide turns? Rather lovely out but clearly not going to last.

Mount Vesuvius

Met Éireann still just going with Munster , Clare and Galway in an Orange warning

typhoony

nacho libre wrote: »

If only it was the other way around.

I have a feeling the ECM is going to be wrong on this one, that the UKMO depiction will be correct.

can you say what the difference is between ECM and UKMO?

Santy2015

Met Eireann particularly concerned about campers in the south and west of the country

nacho libre

Indestructable wrote: »

Ireland's Weather Channel is really going for this one. He has a huge following so might cause some distress, I wonder will Met Eireann follow suit.

If only it was the other way around.

I have a feeling the ECM is going to be wrong on this one, that the UKMO depiction will be correct.

Hurrache

aisling86 wrote: »

Why?

Because otherwise it's saying camping with kids in Ireland is stupid?

Gaoth Laidir

Keep an eye on the water vapour animation at the link below. In the last few frames there appears to be a stingjet forming on the back edge of the cold front (as evidenced by the sharp yellow streaks shooting southwards on the northern side of the yellow area; subsiding stratospheric air). The jet is not that strong (240 kph at 250 hPa), but given the strong moisture-loading it is leading to strong upward motion and rapid pressure falls at the surface.

If it's a stingjet now then it may peak before reaching us tonight, so eyes down for the 12Z analysis.

https://meteologix.com/ie/satellite/204-w-396-n/satellite-water-vapor-15min/20200819-1015z.html#play-0-29-9

Graces7

pad199207 wrote: »

Status Orange - Wind warning for Munster, Galway and Mayo

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Storm Ellen will track over Ireland this evening and tonight bringing severe and damaging winds.

Heavy rainfall and storm surge will result in some flooding.

Valid: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 06:00 Thursday 20/08/2020

Issued: 11:22 Wednesday 19/08/2020

Forgive please my amateur ideas but "storm surge" means exceptionally high tides? I mentioned this earlier. Thank you. Now that COULD be interesting …

[Deleted User]

Graces7 wrote: »

Thank you.

As for the furballs; they have various hidey holes. When the gale gets going opening the door may not be possible.. or prudent.

Brighter out here but no sun.

It’s so good to hear you’re keeping well. Made of hardy stuff you islanders.