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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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leahyl

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Just seen the SkyNews forecast. Quite bland. one mention of gusts and the only mention of Ellen was that it was named by the Irish Met Service..

Hopefully they have got it right.

Sky News couldn’t care less about Ireland, only concerned about the UK :-D

SEPT 23 1989

I hope community centres, sports club buildings etc are opened up to campers and caravanners to get them out of those conditions

JanuarySnowstor

Ppn off the scale in the South
The gfs has gone from least interested to most severe in 6 hours!
Red warning imminent for Cork

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Ppn off the scale in the South
The gfs has gone from least interested to most severe in 6 hours!
Red warning imminent for Cork

So red for rain and not wind?

leahyl

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Ppn off the scale in the South
The gfs has gone from least interested to most severe in 6 hours!
Red warning imminent for Cork

Lol you’re a howl, every post of yours always has the worst weather for Cork

optogirl

namloc1980 wrote: »

Holiday in Ireland they said. This storm will kill off any enthusiasm for holidaying at home in future.

? Hardly.

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

Lol you’re a howl, every post of yours always has the worst weather for Cork

Cork city? Cork county?!

[Deleted User]

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

I hope community centres, sports club buildings etc are opened up to campers and caravanners to get them out of those conditions

I also hope its properly reported on in all media outlets. If someone is currently sat in a tent in Ballyaughan, I hope they brought a radio with them.

dzsfah2xoynme9

One of the strongest storms of the year on the way and the Shannon radar decides to die again. Great..

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1295977147643891712?s=19

namloc1980

optogirl wrote: »

? Hardly.

Well it's killed off my enthusiasm anyway! Meant to be going to Kerry in the morning FFS.

KingdomRushed

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Ppn off the scale in the South
The gfs has gone from least interested to most severe in 6 hours!
Red warning imminent for Cork

I don't see red warning winds on GFS, am I missing something? Still showing gusts of 100 -120 in coastal areas

namloc1980

Brycen Broad Wallflower wrote: »

One of the strongest storms of the year on the way and the Shannon radar decides to die again. Great..

Years of neglect of underfunding.

Storm 10

typhoony wrote: »

GFS 06z has shifted in further east, South East and East Coast getting the worst of the winds, similar track to the FAX chart.

also winds not as bad in the west for the next few days.

Which is not what ME are forecasting plenty of wind from them for the West

munsterlegend

KingdomRushed wrote: »

I don't see red warning winds on GFS, am I missing something? Still showing gusts of 100 -120 in coastal areas

Think it’s the rain levels he means.

M.T. Cranium

GFS continues its trend of converging solutions with ECM, now up to about 60% intensity, track now into eastern Ireland (before it was across the Irish Sea).

Lows on this scale can sometimes have very severe impacts over relatively small areas leaving many other places with less severe outcomes. Since there is no certainty on track, saying where those small areas might be at this stage is pointless.

My hunch is that the landfall will be between Waterford and Cork (cities) with a track across Tipps and east Galway into Roscommon and Leitrim. If that were the case, some wind damage would be most likely just to the west of Waterford and into Kilkenny, highest rainfalls would be on the west side of the track.

Keep in mind this is a hunch, based on where I think the energy is directed. GFS continually shifting west tells me it might do so again at 12z then would be set with eventual solution. Note it is also converging on ECM intensity but that might be 10-20 per cent overdone.

I think orange alert (on land) still seems more likely than red although a few locations could have red alert type impacts. A lot would depend on exact track with some fairly low population density options between Cork and Waterford but higher density options near both of those cities.

Most likely to arrive around 2100-2200h although with 3 hours either side as range of timing possibilities (for centre to make landfall).

[Deleted User]

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Hmm, trying to advise a friend who is planning on going camping tomorrow in Clare from Dublin not to go. She is not trusting my weather forecasting skills.

Tell her bring a kite:)

ninebeanrows

Storm 10 wrote: »

Which is not what ME are forecasting plenty of wind from them for the West

If GFS catching up, we can expect it to trend further west in next 2 runs.

But overall certainly Mayo may escape worst.

Extension of Orange into Midland Leinster looks likely

Hurrache

aisling86 wrote: »

The stupidity on camping with kids in Ireland group is scary!

Not sure if there's missing or misspelled wording?

[Deleted User]

namloc1980 wrote: »

Well it's killed off my enthusiasm anyway! Meant to be going to Kerry in the morning FFS.

I'm wondering should I get out of kerry and bring the house with me

munsterlegend

Matt Hugo thinks ECM has best handle on this with regards to pressure anyway. Would tend to follow its guidance more than GFS.

[Deleted User]

spookwoman wrote: »

This the same iwc Award Winning Climate Scientist | Founder of Ireland’s Weather Channel | Climate Activist | Keynote Speaker
https://twitter.com/nolan_cathal/status/1295828000546664448?s=20

Cringe. As credible as the "famous" Donegal postman who makes seasonal predictions based on which direction cows are facing. These charlatans deserve only indifference.

aisling86

Hurrache wrote: »

Not sure if there's missing or misspelled wording?

Why?

Graces7

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

If GFS catching up, we can expect it to trend further west in next 2 runs.

But overall certainly Mayo may escape worst.

Extension of Orange into Midland Leinster looks likely

Mayo has been spared the worst all this week for a welcome change. That same trajectory as MT is describing . Rain and wind have by and large passed us by until yesterday. We shall see!

pad199207

Graces7 wrote: »

Mayo has been spared the worst all this week for a welcome change. Rain and wind have by and large passed us by until yesterday. We shall see!

Do my eyes deceive me?

squarecircles

The sun is out here in west mayo, and its pleasantly warm in a south east breeze.

Have taken the garden furniture and the solar lighting in just incase.

tabby aspreme

Graces7 wrote: »

Mayo has been spared the worst all this week for a welcome change. Rain and wind have by and large passed us by until yesterday. We shall see!

Good to see you posting again, lock up the furballs tonight

Marty Bird

Heading to Youghal on Friday morning what do you guys think it will be like it?

pad199207

Status Orange - Wind warning for Munster, Galway and Mayo

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Storm Ellen will track over Ireland this evening and tonight bringing severe and damaging winds.

Heavy rainfall and storm surge will result in some flooding.

Valid: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 06:00 Thursday 20/08/2020

Issued: 11:22 Wednesday 19/08/2020

Ninthlife

Marty Bird wrote: »

Heading to Youghal on Friday morning what do you guys think it will be like it?

Youghal be careful