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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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JanuarySnowstor

Ppn off the scale in the South
The gfs has gone from least interested to most severe in 6 hours!
Red warning imminent for Cork

SEPT 23 1989

I hope community centres, sports club buildings etc are opened up to campers and caravanners to get them out of those conditions

leahyl

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Just seen the SkyNews forecast. Quite bland. one mention of gusts and the only mention of Ellen was that it was named by the Irish Met Service..

Hopefully they have got it right.

Sky News couldn’t care less about Ireland, only concerned about the UK :-D

namloc1980

Holiday in Ireland they said. This storm will kill off any enthusiasm for holidaying at home in future.

typhoony

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

GFS on board now at the last minute.
Red alert certain for the South

GFS 06z has shifted in further east, South East and East Coast getting the worst of the winds, similar track to the FAX chart.

also winds not as bad in the west for the next few days.

[Deleted User]

Just seen the SkyNews forecast. Quite bland. one mention of gusts and the only mention of Ellen was that it was named by the Irish Met Service..

Hopefully they have got it right.

munsterlegend

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Im right under the line on IWC map here in Meath, better take the trampoline down, ha

Probably better to take it down alright. That IWC is the daily express of weather.

ChikiChiki

Hmm, trying to advise a friend who is planning on going camping tomorrow in Clare from Dublin not to go. She is not trusting my weather forecasting skills.

Gaoth Laidir

Gruffalox wrote: »

What! Is this a fringe element in forecasting circles?

Award-winning climate scientist who can't even get the year of ex-Charley right.

Rock Lesnar

Im right under the line on IWC map here in Meath, better take the trampoline down, ha

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

GFS on board now at the last minute.
Red alert certain for the South

Any specifics? Your red track record is a bit iffy!

JanuarySnowstor

GFS on board now at the last minute.
Red alert certain for the South

jimmynokia

spookwoman wrote: »

This the same iwc Award Winning Climate Scientist | Founder of Ireland’s Weather Channel | Climate Activist | Keynote Speaker
https://twitter.com/nolan_cathal/status/1295828000546664448?s=20

He's an utter moron that lad has issued red inland

Gruffalux

spookwoman wrote: »

This the same iwc Award Winning Climate Scientist | Founder of Ireland’s Weather Channel | Climate Activist | Keynote Speaker
https://twitter.com/nolan_cathal/status/1295828000546664448?s=20

What! Is this a fringe element in forecasting circles?

leahyl

Could this upgrade even further for inland, away from marine?

spookwoman

This the same iwc Award Winning Climate Scientist | Founder of Ireland’s Weather Channel | Climate Activist | Keynote Speaker
https://twitter.com/nolan_cathal/status/1295828000546664448?s=20

aisling86

squarecircles wrote: »

SEA AREA RED ALERT WARNING ISSUED NOW BY MET EIREANN

I hope campsites all along the coast take heed. The stupidity on camping with kids in Ireland group is scary!

squarecircles

SEA AREA RED ALERT WARNING ISSUED NOW BY MET EIREANN

aisling86

Storm 10 wrote: »

Any link for IWC

https://www.facebook.com/1497743413678592/posts/3094503724002545/

Storm 10

Any link for IWC

watlantic

Still difficult to predict what exactly will happen, but this certainly is going to be a very interesting storm with a lot of potential. The latest surface analysis chart from the OPC has no less than FIVE lows over and near Ireland with at least two of them expected to merge into storm Ellen:

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/IrishCoastGuard/status/1295994511777320960?s=20

Graces7

KingdomRushed wrote: »

With a storm like this there may not be actually any firming up on specifics ahead of the event. We have seen many such instances where the track is off even converging model consensus. We are less than 24 hours out and I fully understand that Met Eireann are still uncertain about track and intensity. Such is it. As it is summer I would probably think it is in Met Eireanns interest and widen the orange warning if tehre is uncertainty, the effects of a storm will be magnified, camping, campervans, awnings out, etc etc etc.

Add to these considerations the frequent foolishness this summer of folk ignoring warnings. There is a coastguard warning on breakingnews,ie online on that; warning against inflatables (sorry, I cannot copy /paste here)

jimmynokia

IWC if off with red inland

ChikiChiki

I think they are being very cautious as they have been lambasted so much for previous severe weathers that have never materialized.

My own opinion is that its better to air on the side of caution and give a warning reflecting the highest possible risk however people are never happy and expect an accurate warning. Schools are closed so that is one previous huge problem that is not there today.

jimmynokia

IWC if off

redsteveireland

Graces7 wrote: »

When they started the warnings y'day they were so vague that it made me wonder if they knew how bad it was going to be and dared not commit to it. They are still being vague' deliberately?

There is more detail in the commentary section -

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary

Subject to updates this afternoon.

weisses

ME still not going with the more eastern track

Graces7

munsterlegend wrote: »

Latest Met Éireann update is sitting on the fence:

Headline: Storm Ellen will produce severe impacts in place this evening and tonight. Mild and cloudy today with rain at times in most areas, but some drier periods also. Highs of 17 to 20 degrees. Very windy or stormy conditions spreading from the south this evening with damaging gusts.

‘In places’ but not sure where!

When they started the warnings y'day they were so vague that it made me wonder if they knew how bad it was going to be and dared not commit to it. They are still being vague' deliberately?

Graces7

spookwoman wrote: »

Status: Red
Marine
MARINE WARNING
STATUS RED - GALE WARNING
Gale to storm force winds, southeast veering southwest, this evening and tonight on all Irish coastal waters and on the Irish Sea. Winds will reach violent storm force 11 for a time on coasts from Carnsore point to Valentia to Slyne Head.

Issued: 10:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020

OUCH!