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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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nthclare

juneg wrote: »

I saw those tents last week. Thats a wild spot to be in a storm. I hope they move.

I know it well enough,if it's coming from the east it'll blow down those hills behind and scoop up anything like a tent in second's.
While blowing onshore it's easier to get shelter from behind rocks etc...

froog

Graces7 wrote: »

Good morning everyone. Although age-related health issues prevent my erstwhile participation, there is only one place to get up to date accurate info in weather like this. boards ie weather forum.

( I strive to keep my weblog alive as that covers weather, gardening, cats and many other aspects of island life)

Good to see familiar "faces"

All very quiet out here but darkening. Utterly silent. Ominous.

I read eg "Highest Astronomical tide" on reports.

I have seen the roads to the slipway flooded in "ordinary" "spring tides" so this is going to be phenomenal.

We are safe here; they all had the sense to build well above any possible tide reach. ( Fingers crossed!) and no real trees etc. And I have seen so many storms through in my years here. And never any damage done.

Stay safe!

Welcome back and glad you are well.

Graces7

adocholiday wrote: »

Slightly off topic but anyone know who you would call in the event of a tree falling down across a road? I have a number of mature trees all in leaf abutting a public road and any of them coming down would need emergency removal. Like is it a call emergency services situation? I've had a google but can't find anything on it.

999 is correct as it is a road threat. They will alert anyone who need alerting.

munsterlegend

I see where a certain weather forum has decided for parts of the nation it’s a red warning. Hate when sites do this without met Éireann having issued same.

Gruffalux

KingdomRushed wrote: »

The ECM is very strange. Certainly you would have to take a view historically that it is unlikely such winds would occur in August.

In fact the scenario shown in the ECM this morning would result in massive economic damage, loss of life and unprecedented impacts on agriculture such as apple orchards and other crops.

It's very 2020 though. Disaster out of the blue.

pauldry

As the Daily Express would say

"Major destructive bomb of storm to batter the UK with power cuts and flooding"

Some very strong gusts inland will be a dangerous part of this storm plus trees down nationwide and power cuts.

Even a top gust is hard to pin point

130kph?
Though 2 weeks ago when I initially saw this storm appear I told my sister there would be 140kph winds

[Deleted User]

Morning folks. I’ve subscribed to the thread and will be keeping a close eye.

My elderly father has a medical bed that has no backup should the power go. If I keep asking “what the graphs mean for North Leitrim/Sligo”, please humour me. It will be long night otherwise.

ChikiChiki

Gruffalox wrote: »

It's very 2020 though. Disaster out of the blue.

Nothing is surprising anymore the way this year has gone. We had huge bushfires in Oz, locusts in Africa, then a global pandemic and well you would have to wonder whats next.

Still 4.5 months left

RobertKK

The Fastnet disaster happened in August with winds said be from storm force 11 to hurricane force 12.
So there is precedence for a very powerful storm at this time of year, it’s just very rare.

adocholiday

If the general consensus (at this stage at least) in the models is that the East will be likely be worst affected then why have Met Eireann not updated their warning? The East is only yellow warning for wind at the moment.

RobertKK

adocholiday wrote: »

If the general consensus (at this stage at least) in the models is that the East will be likely be worst affected then why have Met Eireann not updated their warning? The East is only yellow warning for wind at the moment.

They will update based on their best information.

Graces7

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I took a weighted average of all guidance by reliability factor and the track is something like central Waterford for landfall to Leitrim and Donegal. The range (and not all models develop a separate low) is west coast to Wales. The maximum gust potential ranges from 60 to 130 km/hr.

The current location of developing centre is about 44N 16W.

Rainfall impacts could be underplayed so far, some local rainfall amounts over three days could be in the 70-100 mm range. In general terms, midlands, southwest and west are at most risk for flooding but there is one interval when east coast has heavy rain potential (late Friday). It could develop that tonight favours the east also but sometimes the heaviest rains with a tropical storm type of event are on the west side of the track.

MT what part does tidal flooding, abetted by the wind, play in all this? That is what I thought the mention of flooding referred to. ( given where I am that is understandable!)

DellyBelly

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Morning folks. I’ve subscribed to the thread and will be keeping a close eye.

My elderly father has a medical bed that has no backup should the power go. If I keep asking “what the graphs mean for North Leitrim/Sligo”, please humour me. It will be long night otherwise.

Think the south west will get the worst of it but wouldn't be surprised if there are power outages anywhere along the west coast.

weisses

DellyBelly wrote: »

Think the south west will get the worst of it but wouldn't be surprised if there are power outages anywhere along the west coast.

According to the forecast you are incorrect

ME have the northwest in the firing line around 4 AM

When looking at the models here, the southwest escapes most of it

Indestructable

Ireland's Weather Channel is really going for this one. He has a huge following so might cause some distress, I wonder will Met Eireann follow suit.

3 the square

weisses wrote: »

According to the forecast you are incorrect

ME have the northwest in the firing line around 4 AM

When looking at the models here, the southwest escapes most of it

UK met office has the east coast of Ireland getting the worsted of it

screamer

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Nothing is surprising anymore the way this year has gone. We had huge bushfires in Oz, locusts in Africa, then a global pandemic and well you would have to wonder whats next.

Still 4.5 months left

I think for this part we better have the ark ready......
Hoping this storm isn’t as bad as forecast, we don’t need misery on top of misery.

typhoony

3 the square wrote: »

UK met office has the east coast of Ireland getting the worsted of it

their fax chart is showing worst of the winds on the South Coast travelling travelling from Cork to Belfast, if that's the case then the South West and West will escape the worst of tonights winds, lets see where the 6z gfs has it tracking

Graces7

I have just been outside to check that all is safe. The ocean is flat calm, as in the " glassy sea " of the old song. Varied cloud cover. Midges swarming. But a sweet small breeze. Seems incredible what is coming.

leahyl

Where are next models out? Cork looks to be in firing line at the moment?

munsterlegend

Latest Met Éireann update is sitting on the fence:

Headline: Storm Ellen will produce severe impacts in place this evening and tonight. Mild and cloudy today with rain at times in most areas, but some drier periods also. Highs of 17 to 20 degrees. Very windy or stormy conditions spreading from the south this evening with damaging gusts.

‘In places’ but not sure where!

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

Where are next models out? Cork looks to be in firing line at the moment?

I think it will be afternoon/evening runs before we know how Far East/west this is and how severe it is.

leahyl

munsterlegend wrote: »

I think it will be afternoon/evening runs before we know how Far East/west this is and how severe it is.

Aah the suspense!

JanuarySnowstor

Icon continues to say no

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

Aah the suspense!

Gripping!

SleetAndSnow

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Icon continues to say no

I find that strange since you can see the development on the satellites now

KingdomRushed

With a storm like this there may not be actually any firming up on specifics ahead of the event. We have seen many such instances where the track is off even converging model consensus. We are less than 24 hours out and I fully understand that Met Eireann are still uncertain about track and intensity. Such is it. As it is summer I would probably think it is in Met Eireanns interest and widen the orange warning if tehre is uncertainty, the effects of a storm will be magnified, camping, campervans, awnings out, etc etc etc.

JanuarySnowstor

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

I find that strange since you can see the development on the satellites now

Indeed the sattelite does look full of potential

[Deleted User]

thecretinhop wrote: »

in a weird way something 2 take our minds of covid.
pure fkable though putting stuff in sheds again

Considering how 2020 has gone already, I actually expect this storm to be a damp squib.

(I love a good storm)

sryanbruen

In terms of the numbers for actual gusts, these are the ones to look out for. I must stress it is not a definitive list.

The Claremorris 78 kts stat on 11 August 1999 is likely an error so is not included.