Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It would depend whether exemptions were allowed on top of multiplier. Lots of people depend on exemptions to get them.over the line. No exemption and 4X earnings might be little different to what there at present

Yeah maybe put it this way if the environment for lending was back at pre 2007/8 levels with regards to 100/110% mortgages and money lent out like confetti prices would be up as more people would have access to more property as in higher prices property

Reversal wrote: »

Or the stories of everything going over asking?

again ill make the point

asking prices are largely irrelevant, something going over or under asking is neither here nor there, the correct data to look at is whatever is using the PPR as its source.

GreeBo

Bass Reeves wrote: »

As I posted Consultants/contractors if genuinely that, then they are not an issue. However it more the idea that Apple or Google will allow thousands of employees who are WFH to live in countries other than Ireland. If they do then they will be libel for tax and social insurance in that country, they must register as an employer there. From there the question of VAT on work they do and how profits are taxed comes into play.

1 associate is enough for some countries to consider it a permanent establishment.
If you don't believe me go ask your CFO.

Cyrus wrote: »

if we didnt have those rules dublin prices wouldnt have stopped increasing 2/3 years ago and would probably be 15% higher, thats hardly a good outcome?

Sure if you just removed the rules without any other changes prices would be higher, whether that is 15% or whatever is anybody's guess.

What I mean is all interference should be scrapped including the lending limits.

The lending rules are limiting prices to the upside, other factors are limiting them to the downside. Remove all the meddling and let the market set the price.

Bass Reeves

GreeBo wrote: »

1 associate is enough for some countries to consider it a permanent establishment.
If you don't believe me go ask your CFO.

What people forget if countries allowed unfettered working but company not based there you have the issue about tax and SI. Many if these workers would want to access state services in the country of location, health, medical, education, housing children allowance etc down the road pensions. Labour taxes and VAT are not enough to cover these. Corporate taxes in most countries are in the mid 30's with the new exception of Ireland and a few former Soviet bloc states. But even those would have there claws out. Some of these countries have way higher employer SI contributions.

tigger123

schmittel wrote: »

Sure if you just removed the rules without any other changes prices would be higher, whether that is 15% or whatever is anybody's guess.

What I mean is all interference should be scrapped including the lending limits.

The lending rules are limiting prices to the upside, other factors are limiting them to the downside. Remove all the meddling and let the market set the price.

Wasn't the market setting the price in the period leading up to 2007?

Removing the 3.5 multiplier would be complete madness. People would be forced to get up to their neck in unsustainable date due to the lack of housing supply.

tigger123 wrote: »

Wasn't the market setting the price in the period leading up to 2007?

Removing the 3.5 multiplier would be complete madness. People would be forced to get up to their neck in unsustainable date due to the lack of housing supply.

Nobody is forced to take on more debt than they can afford.

And I'm not talking about removing the 3.5x rule in isolation.

tigger123 wrote: »

Wasn't the market setting the price in the period leading up to 2007?

Removing the 3.5 multiplier would be complete madness. People would be forced to get up to their neck in unsustainable date due to the lack of housing supply.

Maybe but this line of posts is in relation to another poster who suggests that if all property market manipulation was taken out of the equation then prices would fall, which I don't think it would I believe people would over stretch themselves again like what happened leading up to the crash of 08 and property would be higher today without those lending rules

amacca

fliball123 wrote: »

Maybe but this line of posts is in relation to another poster who suggests that if all property market manipulation was taken out of the equation then prices would fall, which I don't think it would I believe people would over stretch themselves again like what happened leading up to the crash of 08 and property would be higher today without those lending rules

I agree......many just bid 10k 20k more without batting an eyelid...sure its just x amount per week etc etc

Many of my parents generation lived in fear of debt and the crippling consequences of having too much of it........its more like casino gambling for some now exacerbated by the fact there is no other way to get a house of their own and long term renting is unsustainable for many........

tigger123

fliball123 wrote: »

Maybe but this line of posts is in relation to another poster who suggests that if all property market manipulation was taken out of the equation then prices would fall, which I don't think it would I believe people would over stretch themselves again like what happened leading up to the crash of 08 and property would be higher today without those lending rules

Undoubtedly.

Reversal wrote: »

So Dublin down 4% since October 2018 now, down 0.3% in a month. So what gives with the unverified PPR data that keeps getting posted here by a certain cohort that somehow always shows things are on the up. Or the stories of everything going over asking?

Property in Dublin is falling. And the numbers of transactions are down.

All this nonsense about ever increasing prices and bidding wars has now been completely debunked.

fliball123 wrote: »

Maybe but this line of posts is in relation to another poster who suggests that if all property market manipulation was taken out of the equation then prices would fall, which I don't think it would I believe people would over stretch themselves again like what happened leading up to the crash of 08 and property would be higher today without those lending rules

It could be lower. If there has been no rules, more developers would have built and we would have been in the middle of a collapse by now.

As it is, I reckon ten percent is on it's way.

Pelezico wrote: »

Property in Dublin is falling. And the numbers of transactions are down.

All this nonsense about ever increasing prices and bidding wars has now been completely debunked.

or....

prices in Dublin are down by less than a percent, all of this nonsense about large price decreases has now been debunked

or maybe given the price changes are so small nothing has been debunked or proven except that ACHIEVED SELLING PRICES are relatively flat.

Cyrus wrote: »

or....

prices in Dublin are down by less than a percent, all of this nonsense about large price decreases has now been debunked

or maybe given the price changes are so small nothing has been debunked or proven except that ACHIEVED SELLING PRICES are relatively flat.

Except they are falling. Wait until supply increases in the autumn selling season.

Now that should be fun.

Pelezico wrote: »

Except they are falling. Wait until supply increases in the autumn selling season.

Now that should be fun.

so you keep saying may be the case, but it hasnt happened yet and any analysis that you have provided to the contrary has been 'debunked'

Sarn

Pelezico wrote: »

All this nonsense about ever increasing prices and bidding wars has now been completely debunked.

We’ve only seen comments on bidding wars over the past two months. If it has happened, this won’t be reflected in the CSO data for a few months.

Pelezico wrote: »

Except they are falling. Wait until supply increases in the autumn selling season.

Now that should be fun.

Wait till the swarm of people who could not buy due to the covid subsidy are able to buy in the autumn as they are coming off the subsidy and can get a mortgage and watch demand increase as well. You only have to gander at this thread to see how many people were going to buy but the covid subsidy hit them

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058047890

Marius34

Residential property prices rise by 0.1% in the year to June
In Dublin, residential property prices saw a decline of 0.7% in the year to June.
Residential property prices in Ireland excluding Dublin were 0.9% higher in the year to June.

If this doesn't tell about price stability, nothing will tell...

Even for CSO i believe it is well expected up to +/-1% margin of error, as it is impossible to get precise calculation on property price.

Marius34 wrote: »

Residential property prices rise by 0.1% in the year to June
In Dublin, residential property prices saw a decline of 0.7% in the year to June.
Residential property prices in Ireland excluding Dublin were 0.9% higher in the year to June.

If this doesn't tell about price stability, nothing will tell...

Even for CSO i believe it is well expected up to +/-1% margin of error, as it is impossible to get precise calculation on property price.

No point talking to him/her they wouldn't listen/look at the PPR data and insisted CSO was right even do it was a few months out of date, now he is spinning the CSO data stating prices have dropped and anyone looking can see that prices have stayed flat. Prices are up .3 since last month and back up .1 since March I had stated that May there was a blip as could be seen in the PPR data and now CSO has backed up what I am saying .

fliball123 wrote: »

No point talking to him/her they wouldn't listen/look at the PPR data and insisted CSO was right even do it was a few months out of date, now he is spinning the CSO data stating prices have dropped and anyone looking can see that prices have stayed flat. Prices are up .3 since last month and back up .1 since March I had stated that May there was a blip as could be seen in the PPR data and now CSO has backed up what I am saying .

You have been spinning yourself.

Pelezico wrote: »

You have been spinning yourself.

Where have I been spinning, you were caught out for blatently lying by both sets of data. Look anyone looking on here can check for themselves I don't need to entertain you. I told you before that when you spin that prices are falling I would just put up the PPR data to prove you wrong, now I can put up the PPR and the CSO data

.. Good man you just keep waiting for that Autumn for all the properties to come to the market that are going to drop

I hope your not left waiting

Proof you have been lying link 1

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

Proof you have been lying link 2

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjune2020/

Everytime you say prices have dropped these 2 links will be chucked in your face

fliball123 wrote: »

Where have I been spinning, you were caught out for blatently lying by bought sets of data. Look anyone looking on here can check for themselves I don't need to entertain you. I told you before that when you spin that prices are falling I would just put up the PPR data to prove you wrong, now I can put up the PPR and the CSO data .. Good man you just keep waiting for that Autumn for all the properties to come to the market that are going to drop I hope your not left waiting

Properties on market increase in Autumn.

You have spent the last few months telling us that numbers are falling. Nobody had the heart to tell you they always fall in Summer.

Pelezico wrote: »

Properties on market increase in Autumn.

Everyone is well aware of the seasonality of the market.

I don’t recall anyone arguing otherwise ?

Pelezico wrote: »

Properties on market increase in Autumn.

You have spent the last few months telling us that numbers are falling. Nobody had the heart to tell you they always fall in Summer.

I did point out that number of properties have fallen dramatically but if you look at the trend for most years usually sales and volume of property increase as the year goes on and this year it did not transactions and the volumes of houses available went down dramatically since Covid.

I have also given you a link to a different thread on here that will highlight the demand that is there when people come off the subsidy scheme and have access to mortgages again which would one of the main reasons why transactions are down for the months we have had to deal with Covid, they are down to a third of what they were last year and looking at the stats from PPR there is not a huge increase in Autumn when it comes to volume/sales its usually winter when the volume really ramps as can be seen in the data.

But like I say prices have not dropped so you were wrong so now its they will drop in the Autumn due to a flood of properties that will come onto the market and you want to completely forget about the pent up demand that has been built up due to people not being able to access a mortgage due to the Covid subsidy scheme --- OK that's your prerogative. You may well be right I have not got a crystal ball that I can see into the future can I borrow yours so I can do the lotto

fliball123 wrote: »

Where have I been spinning, you were caught out for blatently lying by bought sets of data. Look anyone looking on here can check for themselves I don't need to entertain you. I told you before that when you spin that prices are falling I would just put up the PPR data to prove you wrong, now I can put up the PPR and the CSO data .. Good man you just keep waiting for that Autumn for all the properties to come to the market that are going to drop I hope your not left waiting

Properties on market increase in Autumn.

You have spent the last few months telling us that numbers are falling. Nobody had the heart to tell you they always fall in Summer.

Pelezico wrote: »

Properties on market increase in Autumn.

You have spent the last few months telling us that numbers are falling. Nobody had the heart to tell you they always fall in Summer.

I am not disagreeing with you I think there will be more property available for the Autumn , I am simply pointing out 2 things 1: that demand will be up again due to people coming off covid subsidy and 2: that the number of properties available has fallen and unlike yourself I didn't start making up stuff like property prices have dropped when they have not

fliball123 wrote: »

I am not disagreeing with you I think there will be more property available for the Autumn , I am simply pointing out 2 things 1: that demand will be up again due to people coming off covid subsidy and 2: that the number of properties available has fallen and unlike yourself I didn't start making up stuff like property prices have dropped when they have not

I suspect you're right that the demand for credit will increase once covid subsidy ends.

Given the circumstances, I don't think the supply of credit will be increased to meet the demand.

schmittel wrote: »

I suspect you're right that the demand for credit will increase once covid subsidy ends.

Given the circumstances, I don't think the supply of credit will be up to meet the demand.

Yeah you could be onto something it all depends on the banks approach, what I do see are new players coming in hopefully increasing competition and driving down interest rates and I see that some lenders have started upping their game for example I have heard KBC are going to start giving cash back for every new mortgage. But you may well be right but if people are within the 3.5 wage limit and 20/80 or (10/90 for FTB) limits there will be an uproar if they don't lend.