Villa05 wrote: » You have stated multiple times how a Government is propping up property prices. Are you comfortable as a taxpayer with your government guaranteeing the profits of Reits and vulture funds who pay no tax of note with your tax that you pay at over 50%. How do you think tax paying renters feel about this and what implication that could have on how they vote in future. Do you think this is sustainable Will taxes be raised to assist in keeping rents of tax payers high. If more and more people become unemployed. Will the government maintain current rent levels and how will this be achieved. They do say people have high degree of immunity from the smell of their own
fliball123 wrote: Your a bull if you are saying there will be drops of 2 - 5%. Your a bull for identifying that supply is coming down massively Builders will continue building even at a personal loss Builders will emigrate to else where even do they cant Government will pull the subsidies holding up the market (does this include the housing list and the most recent one where they upped FTB by 10k) Banks will continue lending even if property tanks and people waiting for the drop will not be impacted and will still get their mortgage. REITS and vultures will stop buying in Ireland even do they can still secure 85% of current rental yields for anywhere up to 35 years. Student accommodation will be never needed again due to Covid - NEVER Rents are going to drop hugely - Still waiting We have 90k houses that are vacant in the country so like Gaybo used to say one for everyone in the audience or on the housing waiting list (if only it was that easy) We have very few homeless - Forget what all the political parties were saying at election time. People should be forced to sell at a price lower than what they think their property is worth. If the sh1t hits the fan the government will allow banks come in and take all the family homes off those who have lost their job and can no longer afford to pay the mortgage or in a more common term Political suicide.
fliball123 wrote: Now I am no political/financial or property expert but I know the smell of bullsh1t when I smell it.
Eric Cartman wrote: » if a 300k house fell by 5% in one year, the chances of anyone who could only afford to get a 300k mortgage being able to get a mortgage the next year would decrease by 50% . we have to remember property prices are usually tied to mortgages, if the loan book ends up upside down (negative equity) the bank won't lend anymore.
JJJackal wrote: » Houses need to fall by X amount per year to make it worth waiting to buy and continuing to rent - if buying a house is a long term objective X depends on the current price of rent, current interest repayments etc If a 300,000 euro house falls by 1% per year indefinitely (i.e. 3,000 in year 1), you would have to think that buying instead of renting makes sense If a 300,000 euro house falls by 5% per year (i.e. 15,000 in year 1) for a few years waiting makes sense The problem which has always existed is no one knows the trajectory of house prices Everything mentioned on this thread to date is speculation
smurgen wrote: » Where are these? UK going to enter the abyss after Brexit transition period ends at the end of this year. Oz falling big time before Covid. That leaves Canada and New Zealand,both that will also be hit hard by Covid.
smellyoldboot wrote: » 12% would do me. I have the time. I think the fall will be closer to double that tbh. Can see government supports pulled at the end of year and then we'll really see where the market is. Soft landings are fairyland stuff. Going down faster than your ma is my opinion.
Bass Reeves wrote: » And I be uneffected and buy my forever home on the cheap:cool::cool:
OwlsZat wrote: » Builders will build until their 15% margin is gone. If the current Government allow the builders to exist the workforce at this point it would be political suicide. They will have to suck it up and start reducing the bonkers taxes. That is if we don't go deep into recession. If we go into a deep recession all bets are off.
Bass Reeves wrote: » Margin is about 15% Lads that survived the last down turn learned the hard lession baout keeping crews togeather.......it left many of them sorting out 100-500K messes. Lads took there own lives over it. As I posted above nobody works for nothing
cubatahavana wrote: » Still 15% though. Is operational profit not profit before taxes? Someone correct me if I’m wrong. (Not trying to defend developers at all)
beauf wrote: » There are still big public jobs that roll on. Last time a load emigrated to wherever these were. Some will go into black market and small jobs like extensions and conversions.
oceanman wrote: » but that 15% is on millions..
cubatahavana wrote: » Does anyone know the margin of builders? Would they just not stop building if prices drop?
Cyrus wrote: » Look at the cairn or glenveagh annual report And yes they would slow down at the very least
smurgen wrote: » What are they going to do if they stop? Covid is global. Commercial property is finished. Their skills are not really transferrable. They could retrain and go into other industries maybe? Or go on the dole?
OwlsZat wrote: » And let all their staff go? Most small builders treat their crew like extended families. The last thing the want to do is let them go or worse have to hire a new squad in the event of a rebound. There is also the added concern that most builders will have a mortgage themselves. The last thing they really want to do is to stop building.
cubatahavana wrote: » Cairn report is about a 15% operating profit. Not too much
PropQueries wrote: » Interesting article if interested in the future of WFH where fund manager Schroders has stated it will allow thousands of its employees in London to continue working from home even after the pandemic. Article is here: https://www.cityam.com/schroders-becomes-first-major-city-firm-to-make-home-working-permanent/
smurgen wrote: » The main thing i've taken from this thread is that you need to buy now. Beg borrow and steal to get a house because they'll always go up. If you're trying to buy make sure you go at least 50k over asking. It'll be cheaper that way because rent is definitely going to grow at a rate faster than wages. Oh and don't worry either,people will always be employed and your wages will always rise. Plus even if the economy collapses demand will stay the same because house prices in Ireland are only linked to housing supply.
TheSheriff wrote: » I think you've been reading a different thread to be honest....... Ridiculous post, nobody is promoting the above.
Austria! wrote: » Am I missing something? We need more people per sq metre to solve housing.
Hubertj wrote: » You haven’t included the “theory” about there being no shortage of accommodation.
schmittel wrote: » In fairness, it's tongue in cheek and sarcastically exaggerated (as is the "Best off living homeless until you get a good deal on a house. Then don't buy it because it will fall further" post) but are the underlying points really that ridiculous?You need to buy now? Plenty of advice suggesting better to buy now and get on with your life than waiting for ever. Beg borrow and steal to get a house because they'll always go up. Plenty of advice saying forget the short term fluctuations, long term prices will always go up.It'll be cheaper that way because rent is definitely going to grow at a rate faster than wages. Plenty of advice saying you are better off owning than renting, and not just because of the price differential.Oh and don't worry either,people will always be employed and your wages will always rise. Granted, have not seen much of this comment.Plus even if the economy collapses demand will stay the same because house prices in Ireland are only linked to housing supply. This is trotted out repeatedly. As far as I can see there are plenty promoting all of the above bar wages will always rise.
Villa05 wrote: » SF raise a valid point in that these developments will drive up land prices (more rent payers per sq metre than traditional builds)
