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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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Bass Reeves

wassie wrote: »

In fairness, I don't think too many people, both the bulls & the bears, in this thread had anticipated the level of supply to be falling as much as it has.

In market terms a bull us someone that considers the market will keep rising fast. A best is someone who considers the market will collapse.

There was very few bulls if any on this thread. Most like myself could not see the house market collapsing. I myself said we could see a price reduction.but it would be.np more than 10% and might not be that much.

What we had was a large number of bears that talked about a 20%+ reduction. They posted that there would be a property crash worse than 2007-12. The other view held by me and other was that the conditions in2007-12 were totally different and were created by over supply and a house price boon that had seen exponential rises for the previous 4-8 years. It was driven by unrestricted lending and an attitude that anyone could have 2-3 houses. It was tax driven and ROI for investors was below 2% so an investor was dependent on house price rises to make a profit.

Since 2016-2017 prices in Dublin have steadied and very few investors were buying there. House builders were still struggling to finance and start building until 2018/19 therefore supply was limited. House price rises were strictly limited by imposition of 3.5 times lending rules with limited exemptions.

Published building costs seemed to bear out everything that those who believed the market would not collapse completely posted. However bears on the thread posted spurious data collected by themselves which had no bearing on the reality on the ground. Any local knowledge by those that could not see a collapse was rubbished.

There was no bulls only bears......and maybe a few who taught they could cause market disturbance

wassie

MrMusician18 wrote: »

To be fair, if the price drops do not manifest themselves in the next 4 to 6 months the property bulls will have called this correctly and i, like many others on the forum will have to eat their humble pie. Although the housing market has incredible amounts of inertia, at this point, I would've expected it to be showing signs of turning. Volume is way way down though which is likely playing into price support.

That said I just cannot see how prices can remain supported at the level they are at given the damage to the economy. The buyer pool has to be shrinking rather rapidly currently as credit becomes withdrawn, jobs are lost and the economy enters recession.

Since volume of completed sales is way down are we looking at sellers simply refusing to countenance a price below expectation? I guess we shall see if the no of available properties starts to rise that this is the reason (no evidence of this yet tbf). If that is the case then the falls will eventually come.

In fairness, I don't think too many people, both the bulls & the bears, in this thread had anticipated the level of supply to be falling as much as it has.

Pivot Eoin

TheSheriff wrote: »

Had posted the below house about two weeks back, gone tonight for 6% over asking.

https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/33-castleknock-avenue-laurel-lodge-castleknock-dublin-d15-pp82 Asking 499k, gone for 531k

A house on the same road went last month for 525k (Asking was 490k)

https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/10-castleknock-avenue-laurel-lodge-castleknock-dublin-d15-da26

So not seeing any evidence of drops; albeit in a very small area!

These both look like very liveable, nice turn key level properties. From what I've seen the drops are hitting the doer upper market. You wont see any drop on those types of properties above until next year if any, and wouldnt expect more than 5-10%.

BEdS_83

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/jervis-shopping-centre-takes-major-tenants-to-court-over-rent-disputes-1.4328739?mode=amp

Jervis ltd doesn’t seem happy about rents during the lockdown.

MrMusician18

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Sales prices showing no sign of decline as latest report below

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

To be fair, if the price drops do not manifest themselves in the next 4 to 6 months the property bulls will have called this correctly and i, like many others on the forum will have to eat their humble pie. Although the housing market has incredible amounts of inertia, at this point, I would've expected it to be showing signs of turning. Volume is way way down though which is likely playing into price support.

That said I just cannot see how prices can remain supported at the level they are at given the damage to the economy. The buyer pool has to be shrinking rather rapidly currently as credit becomes withdrawn, jobs are lost and the economy enters recession.

Since volume of completed sales is way down are we looking at sellers simply refusing to countenance a price below expectation? I guess we shall see if the no of available properties starts to rise that this is the reason (no evidence of this yet tbf). If that is the case then the falls will eventually come.

bulmersgal

BEdS_83 wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/56-willow-avenue-primrose-gate-co-kildare-celbridge-co-kildare/4447341

-€100,000 (-34.49%) €289,950 €189,950 someone mistyped the price?

Definitely mistyped the price or did it purposely to get free publicity. You would get a house in Celbridge for that price. Most two bed apartments are in and around 190-225k in Celbridge

BEdS_83

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/56-willow-avenue-primrose-gate-co-kildare-celbridge-co-kildare/4447341

-€100,000 (-34.49%) €289,950 €189,950 someone mistyped the price?

Cyrus

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Sales prices showing no sign of decline as latest report below

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

The resident statistician will not like that

Summer2020

There are no drops as far as I can see. Houses all going for slightly over asking in the area of D18 that I’m looking in.

TheSheriff

Had posted the below house about two weeks back, gone tonight for 6% over asking.

https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/33-castleknock-avenue-laurel-lodge-castleknock-dublin-d15-pp82 Asking 499k, gone for 531k

A house on the same road went last month for 525k (Asking was 490k)

https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/10-castleknock-avenue-laurel-lodge-castleknock-dublin-d15-da26

So not seeing any evidence of drops; albeit in a very small area!

Graham

cubatahavana wrote: »

What’s the source of the report?

this under the chart:

PPR volume and median sale price.

cubatahavana

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Sales prices showing no sign of decline as latest report below

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

What’s the source of the report?

Mic 1972

Sales prices showing no sign of decline as latest report below

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

fliball123

Supply on my home down another 50 today

PommieBast

JamesMason wrote: »

AirBnB-ers will be s******* themselves when this "summer" is over. Also, many colleges will be providing off campus classes come October. Rental availability surely must go up dropping asking prices. Or is this hyperbole?

Over in the thread Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming? there are mixed signs. Within my immediate part of Dublin-1 there are now a few 2-beds going for what I am currently paying for a 1-bed, but reports from elsewhere is people (esp. REITs) maintaining prices.

Cyrus

JamesMason wrote: »

AirBnB-ers will be s******* themselves when this "summer" is over. Also, many colleges will be providing off campus classes come October. Rental availability surely must go up dropping asking prices. Or is this hyperbole?

really? a certain cohort maybe, but given that very few people are travelling abroad and lots are taking houses down the country, id say they are doing pretty well.

Bass Reeves

The_Conductor wrote: »

I don't think there is the abundance of supply that people seem to imagine there is out there. The lions share of airbnb in Ireland is not units that are permanently available on the platform- it is temporary availability of units for specific timeframes (normally while the owners are elsewhere- often in other airbnb units). Yes- there are some units dedicated to airbnb- but they are the exception rather than the rule.

Any 'normalisation' of the sector- will probably be next summer (2021) at the earliest- possibly the following year- its not something that is going to happen short to medium term.

The saving grace for Airbnb in many urban settings- will be students looking for short-term rentals for the 1 week a month they're in formal classes for the next semester (or longer term). Many of them will view airbnb as a better bet than a hotel for a week- or traveling to and from college for their 1 week a month- or 1 day a week (or whatever).

Either way- its going to take a while for the dust to settle.

Ya aerbnb's could be busier than ever this winter. As well for all the talk about college accommodation being under pressure price wise most 2nd,3rd and final year students will still opt for staying away from home if they already have done that.

Most still have 250-350/week burning a joke in there pockets and will be paid it until next April. It already obvious with a lot of college students opting to stay in this at present so that they can have a social life

The_Conductor

JamesMason wrote: »

AirBnB-ers will be s******* themselves when this "summer" is over. Also, many colleges will be providing off campus classes come October. Rental availability surely must go up dropping asking prices. Or is this hyperbole?

I don't think there is the abundance of supply that people seem to imagine there is out there. The lions share of airbnb in Ireland is not units that are permanently available on the platform- it is temporary availability of units for specific timeframes (normally while the owners are elsewhere- often in other airbnb units). Yes- there are some units dedicated to airbnb- but they are the exception rather than the rule.

Any 'normalisation' of the sector- will probably be next summer (2021) at the earliest- possibly the following year- its not something that is going to happen short to medium term.

The saving grace for Airbnb in many urban settings- will be students looking for short-term rentals for the 1 week a month they're in formal classes for the next semester (or longer term). Many of them will view airbnb as a better bet than a hotel for a week- or traveling to and from college for their 1 week a month- or 1 day a week (or whatever).

Either way- its going to take a while for the dust to settle.

Wanderer78

JamesMason wrote:

AirBnB-ers will be s******* themselves when this "summer" is over. Also, many colleges will be providing off campus classes come October. Rental availability surely must go up dropping asking prices. Or is this hyperbole?

It may, or may not , we simply don't know, in theory it should, but theory rarely occurs in reality

JamesMason

AirBnB-ers will be s******* themselves when this "summer" is over. Also, many colleges will be providing off campus classes come October. Rental availability surely must go up dropping asking prices. Or is this hyperbole?

<SNIP>

<SNIP>

<SNIP>

The last multiple pages are more suited to other forums, really; as they are macroeconomic discussions, personal arguments and so on. Could people attempt to get back on topic?

oceanman

Lolle06 wrote: »

Imo between the Climate Change refugees from other countries and the Hongkong Billionaire who wants to build an entire new city, the Island of Ireland and its low density population will be quite interesting for all sorts of people to relocate to in future.
I wouldn’t underestimate the draw of this country.

we would need to put a roof on it though..:)

Lolle06

Imo between the Climate Change refugees from other countries and the Hongkong Billionaire who wants to build an entire new city, the Island of Ireland and its low density population will be quite interesting for all sorts of people to relocate to in future.
I wouldn’t underestimate the draw of this country.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

This is the wrong forum. But you are a liar. Must be sad to have to make stuff up on the internet to suit your agenda. Good luck

Well if anybody thinks Google is employing c. 8,000 actual developers in Dublin, that may be true, but given they c. 120,000 worldwide, I'd make an educated guess that the c. 8,000 employed in Dublin are mostly employed in sales given that Ireland is their worldwide headquarters and profit center outside the United States.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

Ah, just remembered, I did make a similar comment and someone replied about Google’s Centers of excellence. That’s true and they’re nearly all in other EU countries.

This is the wrong forum. But you are a liar. Must be sad to have to make stuff up on the internet to suit your agenda. Good luck

MacronvFrugals

fliball123 wrote: »

Just an update apparently Russia have approved a vaccine. All property up lads and property down lads I hope will agree no matter how it impacts property lets hope the Rushkies have a solution to the problem

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/russia-approves-covid-19-vaccine-after-less-than-two-months-of-human-tests-1.4327421

They can thank the good work of the elite APT29

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

You’re just making stuff up now. Someone can’t be this badly misinformed.

Ah, just remembered, I did make a similar comment and someone replied about Google’s Centers of excellence. That’s true and they’re nearly all in other EU countries.