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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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JJJackal

PropQueries wrote: »

Actually, there's still plenty of work in London at the moment and they're actually finding it difficult to find workers. Building never really stopped over there.

Good opportunity if Irish people are unemployed.

PropQueries

JJJackal wrote: »

Good opportunity if Irish people are unemployed.

A lot of people are surprised that a lot of Irish construction workers started heading over there again late last year. I think it was due to a bit of a slowdown here, but many said it was also due to the cost of living in Dublin and they were better off in money terms in London.

Pelezico

PropQueries wrote: »

A lot of people are surprised that a lot of Irish construction workers started heading over there again late last year. I think it was due to a bit of a slowdown here, but many said it was also due to the cost of living in Dublin and they were better off in money terms in London.

They are better off with lower taxes.

But the construction industry in UK contracted severely during Covid19.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

A lot of people are surprised that a lot of Irish construction workers started heading over there again late last year. I think it was due to a bit of a slowdown here, but many said it was also due to the cost of living in Dublin and they were better off in money terms in London.

Not sure how you could be better off in London , when I looked at it I’d need to be paid 2.5x times what I’m paid here to have the same house / std of living

Browney7

PropQueries wrote: »

According to the Irish Independent, Ires Reit is to sell more than 150 apartments: https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/ires-reit-to-sell-off-50m-in-assets-after-buoyant-first-half-39432452.html

Multitude of reasons for this - large shareholder capreit may be putting pressure on to get cash out of the company is one item I can think of. Possible they see rental yields softening in certain locations and looking to cash in now to reinvest further down the line if things do fall more in 12 to 18 months. Or else the blocks are too standalone and they need to finance a new build elsewhere.

I expect the state may be interested in buying, especially the units in Tallaght

[Deleted User]

Yeah I suspect they will offload a number off them to the CCs pretty easily. A good amount in the Sandyford business park development are social welfare supported tenancies and I suspect it’s common in the other developments they’ve earmarked.

2018 https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0809/983942-housing-social-tenancies/

PommieBast

PropQueries wrote: »

All good points. But with social distancing, they can't have long conversations with either locals or other students so learning English through interactions with other native speakers will be harder than normal. Also with social distancing and no pubs open etc. they would basically be coming here to sit in a bedroom by themselves for the duration of their studies. Unless, of course, they don't abide by the social distancing requirements.

Language school is little more than paying for the visa. When i come across a non-EU national language student who actually has quite good English, the odds are that they have a local BF/GF.

Getting bit off topic...

MacronvFrugals

PommieBast wrote: »

Language school is little more than paying for the visa. When i come across a non-EU national language student who actually has quite good English, the odds are that they have a local BF/GF.

Getting bit off topic...

This is very true, my ex-GF was a Brazillian studying English although under the Covid climate we never would have met.

King Cantona

bringing this back on topic. As a FTB, we're going to sit it out and hope for a drop - which seems inevitable. Ironically, we, like many others in our position have more spending power than 6 months ago as we've saved more than usual. As we're not on the property ladder, it would seem foolish to buy now and risk prices falling within 6 months.

Pelezico

King Cantona wrote: »

bringing this back on topic. As a FTB, we're going to sit it out and hope for a drop - which seems inevitable. Ironically, we, like many others in our position have more spending power than 6 months ago as we've saved more than usual. As we're not on the property ladder, it would seem foolish to buy now and risk prices falling within 6 months.

A sensible approach. Why would you buy before the full impact of the worst recession ever is clearer?

Cyrus

King Cantona wrote: »

bringing this back on topic. As a FTB, we're going to sit it out and hope for a drop - which seems inevitable. Ironically, we, like many others in our position have more spending power than 6 months ago as we've saved more than usual. As we're not on the property ladder, it would seem foolish to buy now and risk prices falling within 6 months.

if you are in a position to do that i wouldnt try convince you otherwise, but obviously depends on your rental costs in the meantime and your requirements around schools for kids etc (if any)

cubatahavana

King Cantona wrote: »

bringing this back on topic. As a FTB, we're going to sit it out and hope for a drop - which seems inevitable. Ironically, we, like many others in our position have more spending power than 6 months ago as we've saved more than usual. As we're not on the property ladder, it would seem foolish to buy now and risk prices falling within 6 months.

Just thinking that if everyone has more spending power, probably prices won’t fall so much as:

A) it doesn’t seem to be a case of excess property on the market

more people with more money will bid on the few good houses

I’m not saying a drop is not going to happen, far from it, but I don’t think it’ll be as big as people think. The 2008 crisis took everyone by surprise. If everyone waits for the drop to buy, the asking price may be lower, but if more people will bid for the same property, probably increasing the final price

Bass Reeves

Pelezico wrote: »

A sensible approach. Why would you buy before the full impact of the worst recession ever is clearer?

Because funny enough he answered his own question. He stated that many in his position are saving more than they ever did. This means that in 6-12 month times there may be more people with a deposit ready to buy. That would indicate more buyers, more buyers means higher prices.

What amazes me is all these people with the attitude of ''bring it on'' are so sure this ''worst recession ever'' will not effect them and they will be able to access mortgages no problem in 12-18 months time

TheSheriff

Bass Reeves wrote: »

What amazes me is all these people with the attitude of ''bring it on'' are so sure this ''worst recession ever'' will not effect them and they will be able to access mortgages no problem in 12-18 months time

I do find this strange on this thread; I am all for prices falling (FTB), but equally don't want them to fall too much, as for it to happen it will also likely me I won't get a mortgage due to other economic circumstances.

BRING IT ON!!! (just bring it on a little bit, not too much, maybe 10%)

keoclassic

We are looking and bidding the last 6 months. Only this morning we were out bid by 15000 over the asking price! And bidding is still going. Asking was 330, we went in at 300. This type of thing is happening every time and is very very frustrating!! It is insane at the minute. We saw a big increase in property the 1st week or 2 after lockdown but now its dried up again. We want to build but the local need has us caught. We are renting in an estate where last week a family 3 doors were moved into a newish house by the council, it's maddening when I think about the situation but we are keeping our cool and just accepting that this is the way things are ðŸ˜’

King Cantona

Cyrus wrote: »

if you are in a position to do that i wouldnt try convince you otherwise, but obviously depends on your rental costs in the meantime and your requirements around schools for kids etc (if any)

Yeah, we're lucky with our rent that it's very reasonable and we've no immediate need to move out. We're willing to wait 6 months or so, but beyond that, we'll just bite the bullet.

Our appetite to spend probably won't change - we'll just try to get more for our money (better location / bigger house etc)

keoclassic

TheSheriff wrote: »

I do find this strange on this thread; I am all for prices falling (FTB), but equally don't want them to fall too much, as for it to happen it will also likely me I won't get a mortgage due to other economic circumstances.

BRING IT ON!!! (just bring it on a little bit, not too much, maybe 10%)

I'm thinking the same 10-15% would take the sting out of it and give alot of property I'm looking at a fair and valued price.

Cyrus

King Cantona wrote: »

Yeah, we're lucky with our rent that it's very reasonable and we've no immediate need to move out. We're willing to wait 6 months or so, but beyond that, we'll just bite the bullet.

Our appetite to spend probably won't change - we'll just try to get more for our money (better location / bigger house etc)

good luck

King Cantona

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Because funny enough he answered his own question. He stated that many in his position are saving more than they ever did. This means that in 6-12 month times there may be more people with a deposit ready to buy. That would indicate more buyers, more buyers means higher prices.

What amazes me is all these people with the attitude of ''bring it on'' are so sure this ''worst recession ever'' will not effect them and they will be able to access mortgages no problem in 12-18 months time

hmmm.. I'm not sure that's necessarily true. I'm fortunate that I haven't been affected financially, and have saved more. Many of my friends and co workers have been affected - and others have AIP but cannot draw down.

There may well be a two tier market where houses in a certain bracket maintain, whereas others drop. I recently viewed a house in Clontarf and there was a queue of >15 people outside and a couple of bids on the opening day - so good houses in good areas will always attract demand.

In our experience, we've been in the market ~2 years (we've had a couple of sales fall through for different reasons on the sellers side) - only in the past month, we've noticed that EA are calling us up after a couple of weeks to see if we're still interested / bidding. Of the 4-5 properties we're looking at, four really struggled to reach the asking price.

Marius34

TheSheriff wrote: »

I do find this strange on this thread; I am all for prices falling (FTB), but equally don't want them to fall too much, as for it to happen it will also likely me I won't get a mortgage due to other economic circumstances.

BRING IT ON!!! (just bring it on a little bit, not too much, maybe 10%)

That's a good point of looking at it. It maybe fine if property price decrease at some extent. But it would be terrible if it falls to much, that would destroy construction sector. As it's a long process to scale up.
If constructions sector collapse, and there is recovery in the economy, to get a place to live for another decade would be bigger nightmare than it is now.

Pelezico

Marius34 wrote: »

That's a good point of looking at it. It maybe fine if property price decrease at some extent. But it would be terrible if it falls to much, that would destroy construction sector. As it's a long process to scale up.
If constructions sector collapse, and there is recovery in the economy, to get a place to live for another decade would be bigger nightmare than it is now.

I only worry about my own gig. A twenty percent fall in prices would be fairly beautiful.

That would only take them down to 2015 levels...so not too bad...unless you bought more recently.

MrMusician18

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Because funny enough he answered his own question. He stated that many in his position are saving more than they ever did. This means that in 6-12 month times there may be more people with a deposit ready to buy. That would indicate more buyers, more buyers means higher prices.

What amazes me is all these people with the attitude of ''bring it on'' are so sure this ''worst recession ever'' will not effect them and they will be able to access mortgages no problem in 12-18 months time

Realistically though how much extra is someone going to be able to put in savings in 6-12 months? Decent salary of 70k is likely only an extra 1k/month.

Unlikely to make a significant difference to the market. What will make a difference is the banks willingness to lend - that determines the size of the buyer pool.

Villa05

Bass Reeves wrote:

A coffee once a day 5 days a weeks cost 750 euro Buying a sambo 3 time a week 350 euro Lunch out once a week 500 euro per year Night out pub, club, ride(taxi) home 100 euro, once a week for a year 5K Snort of cocaine once a week 5K/year Meal out ever fortnight @ 25 euro costs 650 euro a year Weekend away abroad cheap budget 250-300 euro, expensive one 500+ two per year 600 euro Holiday abroad 500-1000 including spending money 3 day stag in Ireland no C 500 euro with C add another 2-300 euro, add another 3-500 if in eastern Europe 2-3 concerts 200 a pop Soccer or Heinken Cup match 500-1K

Not saying that first time buyers should be partaking in all this activity, but it goes to show how much more beneficial, job creating activity could be going on in the economy if housing was not so expensive

tobsey wrote:

Governments have been printing money since the last crash and weâ€™ve had virtually no inflation. The money they are pumping in now for Covid supports is replacing debt created by banks due to the lack of lending. There is nobody, anywhere, predicting high levels of inflation.

That's the time to be keeping an eye out for it.
Note that to combat inflation central banks raise interest rates. That is when this country will go belly up

Bass Reeves

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Realistically though how much extra is someone going to be able to put in savings in 6-12 months? Decent salary of 70k is likely only an extra 1k/month.

Unlikely to make a significant difference to the market. What will make a difference is the banks willingness to lend - that determines the size of the buyer pool.

You would be surprised

anniehilate

TheSheriff wrote: »

I do find this strange on this thread; I am all for prices falling (FTB), but equally don't want them to fall too much, as for it to happen it will also likely me I won't get a mortgage due to other economic circumstances.

BRING IT ON!!! (just bring it on a little bit, not too much, maybe 10%)

I agree, I think a 10% drop would be the sweet spot where buying becomes just that bit more affordable. I also can't see a 10% drop in prices driving up demand while the quality of houses is so poor. To a lot of FTB, whether the house they want to buy is €400k or €360k doesn't make a huge difference, once they have mortgage approval. The lack of supply is arguably more of a barrier to house ownership for FTB than price right now. Any FTBs I know (looking in Dublin) have mortgage approval but so few properties of decent quality on which to actually bid. The quality of the supply isn't improving any time soon what with it being more difficult to do renovations and covid uncertainty etc., so it's a bit concerning how this is all going to pan out.

JamesMason

I keep reading on this thread such phrases as prices fell XX %...after the crash.. after the boom...when the recession hit...the downturn etc.
Do people not realise that the global economy (and our economy) is having the biggest catastrophe since the wall Street crash of 1929?
We are in recession...the mother of them all.
Let that sink in.

bdmc5

JamesMason wrote: »

I keep reading on this thread such phrases as prices fell XX %...after the crash.. after the boom...when the recession hit...the downturn etc.
Do people not realise that the global economy (and our economy) is having the biggest catastrophe since the wall Street crash of 1929?
We are in recession...the mother of them all.
Let that sink in.

Hysterical comments like this are no better. There’s still hundreds of thousands of people still working away not financially impacted through COVID and thousands going Back to work on a weekly basis.

You like the rest of us don’t know what will happen tomorrow not a mind comparing COVID to the Wall Street crash or last recession where the variables at play are totally incomparable.

JamesMason

bdmc5 wrote: »

Hysterical comments like this are no better. There’s still hundreds of thousands of people still working away not financially impacted through COVID and thousands going Back to work on a weekly basis.

You like the rest of us don’t know what will happen tomorrow not a mind comparing COVID to the Wall Street crash or last recession where the variables at play are totally incomparable.

One thing you can be sure of is that there is a lot of uncertainty.

Cyrus

JamesMason wrote: »

We are in recession...the mother of them all.
Let that sink in.

Are we even technically in recession yet ? Didn’t think we were.

If so to refer to it as the mother of them all is a little hyperbolic imo.

Pelezico

Cyrus wrote: »

Are we even technically in recession yet ? Didn’t think we were.

If so to refer to it as the mother of them all is a little hyperbolic imo.

Oh yes...we are in a recession. And it is very big.