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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

d51984

The current Coronavirus epidemic seems to be getting worse by the day, just wondering what complications if any may happen in the not to distant future.

Can we start taking peoples temperatures on arrival in to the country? Open up isolation centers in major cities? Will Aer Lingus and Ryanair start suspending flights, mainly to Italy so far?

This thing is going to get worse,and now its not a question of weather it arrives in Ireland but a matter of how long until it arrives.

Thoughts?

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marno21

Cork now has hub connectivity via AMS (KLM), CDG (Air France) and ZRH (Swiss). It would appear that there are others willing to take a chance on hub connectivity from Cork Airport.

Before any of these airlines came in Aer Lingus had 1,000 seats per day to hubs (not including MAN/BHX/EDI). In summer 2018, they were running 5 per day to LHR and 1/2 daily to AMS. There is clear demand for hub access from Cork and this will resume when business travel returns to normal.

Locker10a

marno21 wrote: »

There is clear demand for hub access from Cork and this will resume when business travel returns to normal.

**if** business travel returns to normal...

xvril

There will be very few airlines left by the time this is all over. A lot were barely scraping by as it was.

Tiger Air in Australia is the latest to announce they are ceasing operations saying there is not sufficient customer demand for two low cost airlines anymore. Jeststar of course being the other low cost airline they are referencing.

gral6

No point to have any airport in Ireland now but Dublin T2 open with current government restrictions. Belfast is going to be new international travel hub for Irish people.

Dublinflyer

gral6 wrote: »

No point to have any airport in Ireland now but Dublin T2 open with current government restrictions. Belfast is going to be new international travel hub for Irish people.

Take this with a pinch of salt as I got it second hand but I heard that SIPTU sent a letter to its members saying that more than likely T2 will be mothballed in a few weeks until demand comes back. Again, second hand info so take it as such.

It does makes sense to close one of them down to reduce day to day running costs.

goingnowhere

Dublinflyer wrote: »

Take this with a pinch of salt as I got it second hand but I heard that SIPTU sent a letter to its members saying that more than likely T2 will be mothballed in a few weeks until demand comes back. Again, second hand info so take it as such.

It does makes sense to close one of them down to reduce day to day running costs.

It make some sense but in the world of COVID lots of space is good

I'd close T1...

[Deleted User]

FRAPORT looking to lay off 3000 workers according to news I heard. No expection of demand returning to 2019 levels until 2023.
German text: https://www.aero.de/news-36497/Fraport-stellt-sich-auf-laengere-Durststrecke-ein.html

Jacovs

Dublinflyer wrote: »

Take this with a pinch of salt as I got it second hand but I heard that SIPTU sent a letter to its members saying that more than likely T2 will be mothballed in a few weeks until demand comes back. Again, second hand info so take it as such.

It does makes sense to close one of them down to reduce day to day running costs.

Wonder how this will work with CBP. All of DL, UA and AA are operating again, and EI never stopped.

Nijmegen

Dublinflyer wrote: »

Take this with a pinch of salt as I got it second hand but I heard that SIPTU sent a letter to its members saying that more than likely T2 will be mothballed in a few weeks until demand comes back. Again, second hand info so take it as such.

It does makes sense to close one of them down to reduce day to day running costs.

Considering that T1 is no longer set up for USPC security control, it'd be a stretch to see that happening I suspect.

goingnowhere

Closing the 200 gates would be a start, its a strange offshoot, or close the 100 gates which is a massive chunk (and walk).

Dublinflyer

Nijmegen wrote: »

Considering that T1 is no longer set up for USPC security control, it'd be a stretch to see that happening I suspect.

They could send pax from T1 down the link corridor to Pre-clearance as it's not that far a walk but that would be ugly. It would make more sense to close piers and other parts of the airport rather than a complete terminal. Given TA pax numbers are low could they go back to clearing customs when landing in the US, again thats not pretty. It's going to be interesting to watch over the next few weeks as I guess the daa need to do more to cut running costs. The package they offered staff got mixed reactions especially from the longer serving people. I know so many people in there and the outlook is not good overall.

Jacovs

Dublinflyer wrote: »

They could send pax from T1 down the link corridor to Pre-clearance as it's not that far a walk but that would be ugly. It would make more sense to close piers and other parts of the airport rather than a complete terminal. Given TA pax numbers are low could they go back to clearing customs when landing in the US, again thats not pretty. It's going to be interesting to watch over the next few weeks as I guess the daa need to do more to cut running costs. The package they offered staff got mixed reactions especially from the longer serving people. I know so many people in there and the outlook is not good overall.

Checking in in T1 then walking to T2 would work, except for CBP have baggage screening equipment in T2 reserved just for their checked in baggage. All precleared baggage have to go through them. So that wouldnt work with bags being checked in in T1.
Post clearing CBP is an option though.

Dublinflyer

Jacovs wrote: »

Checking in in T1 then walking to T2 would work, except for CBP have baggage screening equipment in T2 reserved just for their checked in baggage. All precleared baggage have to go through them. So that wouldnt work with bags being checked in in T1.
Post clearing CBP is an option though.

Yeah you are spot on, I forgot about the imaging at the T2 check in desks. Watch this space I guess.

gral6

The public health advice says do not travel. Unless they change I can see all Irish airports go bust shortly. Thanks God, there is Belfast around the corner so we can continue flying from Belfast. Feel sorry for Irish aviation

Nijmegen

I would say that there is a risk of use it or lose it with USPC, telling them you're shutting it down for an unspecified period of time while everyone goes through T1 and does CBP in the US would likely create long term instability. Also I'd say it's not beyond reason that airline contracts with DAA have minimum performance criteria to include the maintenance of facilities required for USPC.

AnRothar

gral6 wrote: »

The public health advice says do not travel. Unless they change I can see all Irish airports go bust shortly. Thanks God, there is Belfast around the corner so we can continue flying from Belfast. Feel sorry for Irish aviation

I have to wonder what planet you are on.

Is there a crisis?
Yes?

Will Irish Aviation grind to a halt.
No.

Will there be changes?
Yes, first thing Manager's get taught, never waste a good opportunity to give staff a good kicking.

There will be changes in the short term. Some will be painful and hard for those directly concerned, awkward and slightly less painful for those indirectly affected.

Long term there will be a recovery.

Van.Bosch

gral6 wrote: »

The public health advice says do not travel. Unless they change I can see all Irish airports go bust shortly. Thanks God, there is Belfast around the corner so we can continue flying from Belfast. Feel sorry for Irish aviation

If someone is willing to ignore the advice and travel via Belfast, why wouldn’t they ignore the advice and fly via Dublin?

gral6

Van.Bosch wrote: »

If someone is willing to ignore the advice and travel via Belfast, why wouldn’t they ignore the advice and fly via Dublin?

Because, soon, there will be no Dublin airport left with current approach for "super killer" virus.

Irish Steve

gral6 wrote: »

Because, soon, there will be no Dublin airport left with current approach for "super killer" virus.

And you really think that with the way it's resurging across Europe again, and very much not under control in other countries that there will be flights from Belfast?

The brutal reality is that this virus is very much not going away, or in retreat, and is coming back again in different ways depending on how different places have unlocked, and before too long, restrictions of varying degree will be reinstated in other countries, and will be tightened up here as well, both on flights and ferries, due to the increasing "feck ye and your rules" attitudes that are being increasingly displayed across all aspects of the community.

There are still aircraft flying, the reasons for the America flights are not passengers, they are carrying significant volumes of freight, and there are still some people who need to travel for essential work purposes.

Be under no illusions, the impact on aviation is massive, but the longer this virus continues without effective vaccines, the more devastating the effects on the global economic structure of the entire globe.

We can't even begin to fully visualise what the consequences might be, but I can see a situation where a large range of supposedly cast iron secure highly paid jobs in things like state and semi state services could be vulnerable, in that there won't be the tax revenues there to support them.

Even pensions and the like are far from secure, the bottom line is that everything is becoming a very big unknown going forward, and all of us could face some very uncomfortable changes over the next decade.

gral6

Irish Steve wrote: »

And you really think that with the way it's resurging across Europe again, and very much not under control in other countries that there will be flights from Belfast?

The brutal reality is that this virus is very much not going away, or in retreat, and is coming back again in different ways depending on how different places have unlocked, and before too long, restrictions of varying degree will be reinstated in other countries, and will be tightened up here as well, both on flights and ferries, due to the increasing "feck ye and your rules" attitudes that are being increasingly displayed across all aspects of the community.

There are still aircraft flying, the reasons for the America flights are not passengers, they are carrying significant volumes of freight, and there are still some people who need to travel for essential work purposes.

Be under no illusions, the impact on aviation is massive, but the longer this virus continues without effective vaccines, the more devastating the effects on the global economic structure of the entire globe.

We can't even begin to fully visualise what the consequences might be, but I can see a situation where a large range of supposedly cast iron secure highly paid jobs in things like state and semi state services could be vulnerable, in that there won't be the tax revenues there to support them.

Even pensions and the like are far from secure, the bottom line is that everything is becoming a very big unknown going forward, and all of us could face some very uncomfortable changes over the next decade.

I can see that countries like Sweden and Belarus are doing very good without imposing any useless quarantine which only helps to drag on this miserable "new normal" bul**** approach.

Irish Steve

gral6 wrote: »

I can see that countries like Sweden and Belarus are doing very good without imposing any useless quarantine which only helps to drag on this miserable "new normal" bul**** approach.

And Scotland has just put Aberdeen into total lockdown as a result of a massive spike in cases there, over 30 of the 54 new cases traced to one pub. all pubs and restaurants have been ordered to close at 5pm today, for at least 7 days, and that may be extended if necessary.

There are Lies, damn lies and statistics, the only measure that matters is can the health services of the country cope with the numbers presenting with infection, and can they continue to cope if those numbers rise.

If the answer to either of those questions is no, then the relevant authorities don't have a lot of choice other than to take actions to change what's happening across the country.

We already know that opening pubs further presents a risk of increasing the case load, and the same applies to re opening schools in a few weeks time. If we have a choice of opening schools or pubs, there is no choice, one is optional, and recreational, the other is structural and fundamental to the future of all the children (of all ages) that are being affected.

gral6

Irish Steve wrote: »

And Scotland has just put Aberdeen into total lockdown as a result of a massive spike in cases there, over 30 of the 54 new cases traced to one pub. all pubs and restaurants have been ordered to close at 5pm today, for at least 7 days, and that may be extended if necessary.

There are Lies, damn lies and statistics, the only measure that matters is can the health services of the country cope with the numbers presenting with infection, and can they continue to cope if those numbers rise.

If the answer to either of those questions is no, then the relevant authorities don't have a lot of choice other than to take actions to change what's happening across the country.

We already know that opening pubs further presents a risk of increasing the case load, and the same applies to re opening schools in a few weeks time. If we have a choice of opening schools or pubs, there is no choice, one is optional, and recreational, the other is structural and fundamental to the future of all the children (of all ages) that are being affected.

Overreaction again. This is going to destroy economically Ireland too. It is already on its knees.

AMKC

gral6 wrote: »

I can see that countries like Sweden and Belarus are doing very good without imposing any useless quarantine which only helps to drag on this miserable "new normal" bul**** approach.

I for one have not seen or thought of any of the lockdown we had and still partial have as miserable or bullish,it. I prefer that the people I care about are safe and not in a hospital with the virus. You must be demented if you think that Sweden is doing ok without a lockdown. Sure there economy might be but at least more than 4 times the amount of people that would have died there have died. I do not know what there figures are at now but let's just say its 2400 dead there. If they had of went into lockdown 1800 of them people might still be alive today so 1800 less family grieving. They have even said themselves that if it were to happen again they would take a different approach. Both there neighbours have not reopened there borders with them either because of there approach to the virus and fear of it crossing the border into there countries. As for Belarus well I would say it is very bad there and they are in denial big time including there crazy dictator.

Irish Steve

gral6 wrote: »

Overreaction again. This is going to destroy economically Ireland too. It is already on its knees.

You are entitled to your opinion, I prefer to trust the people who have access to the figures for Ireland and the rest of the world, and they are also seeing much more information that's not finding its way into the public domain.

I think that as we've now drifted away from the subject of the thread, the impact on aviation, we need to let this go from this forum.

gral6

AMKC wrote: »

I for one have not seen or thought of any of the lockdown we had and still partial have as miserable or bullish,it. I prefer that the people I care about are safe and not in a hospital with the virus. You must be demented if you think that Sweden is doing ok without a lockdown. Sure there economy might be but at least more than 4 times the amount of people that would have died there have died. I do not know what there figures are at now but let's just say its 2400 dead there. If they had of went into lockdown 1800 of them people might still be alive today so 1800 less family grieving. They have even said themselves that if it were to happen again they would take a different approach. Both there neighbours have not reopened there borders with them either because of there approach to the virus and fear of it crossing the border into there countries. As for Belarus well I would say it is very bad there and they are in denial big time including there crazy dictator.

What's now? Can we afford to live under permanent lockdown? How long can we sustain this yet? Instead of taking care of Nursing homes, they started to kill sparrows with cannons.
What a freak show.

Masala

gral6 wrote: »

What's now? Can we afford to live under permanent lockdown? How long can we sustain this yet? Instead of taking care of Nursing homes, they started to kill sparrows with cannons.
What a freak show.

Ok.... lets get back on subject

Nijmegen

As the pandemic wears on, corporate contracts are going to start coming up for renegotiation or renewal. I can see large firms just kicking the can down the road - the contracts won't provide them with any savings when nobody is travelling. This is big business for quite a few of the airline alliances.

As a corporate CFO unless you have a very specific reason for travel - eg Apple sending engineers to and from factories in China - and much of your budget is spent on the nebulous "meetings" category, you have to be reconsidering these contracts. Also looking at the timeframes around vaccine etc even if things were to return to more traditional business traffic volumes, it won't be for another 12-18 months at least (or else your employers liability insurance broker might eat up whatever discounts the airline is willing to give you to get someone on the plane).

Dublinflyer

I am working for a big US telecoms provider and we have been told very clearly that there will be very little travel until at least q2 of next year. To put that into perspective I travelled to the US at least once a month and to other locations in EMEA at least twice a month. All stoped and working just as well online.

Nijmegen

Dublinflyer wrote: »

I am working for a big US telecoms provider and we have been told very clearly that there will be very little travel until at least q2 of next year. To put that into perspective I travelled to the US at least once a month and to other locations in EMEA at least twice a month. All stoped and working just as well online.

I was reviewing the last financial year for our firm recently, as we prepare forecasts (ha) going forward. A big feature is a number of major events that the sales team go to, bring the industry together etc etc. Significant direct costs to attend, do sponsorship, fill tote bags with tat and brochures as well as the costs then of the travel, hotels, meals, etc etc etc.

Now they're attending virtual networking events and so on. Is it as effective? I'd argue yes for that kind of "top of funnel" activity. Now I'd still argue for putting them on a plane to go entertain, build relationships with and close deals with large clients they're already in with. But the value of a big conference of, effectively, speed dating and boozing for three days? Hmm.

I think the covid change is that it has forced businesses to operate in a way many managers would have been skeptical about; and the results haven't actually been poor in well run businesses that (for example) already have good control over their CRM, ERP, etc etc.

How can you justify the same level of travel and cost in that practical environment after Covid?