Wanderer78 wrote: » apologies, i meant the demand of private debt will be rapidly falling, otherwise i completely agree with you, but it is important to note that the amount of private debt has been rapidly falling in ireland, since the last crash, as debts having being serviced
Cyrus wrote: » id imagine AIB is the same to be honest.
LawBoy2018 wrote: » I worked in BOI last summer and it was obvious that management wanted to cut overheads considerably. I was earning 40K + essentially doing sweet f all. They needed a serious cull, imo.
schmittel wrote: » It seems like most people think levels of private debt are currently lower than they were in 07/08. I posted this in the last thread in response to a number of banks are better capitalised, CB lending limits, all fine on that front comments, but I got no response from any of the posters who say private debt is not a problem. I'll make the point again: The idea that all is well because this time high levels of debt are not a problem is a recurring theme on this thread, and like a lot of the other recurring themes, does not really stand up to scrutiny. Whilst a pandemic is not a financial crisis caused by debt, locking down economies will inevitably trigger a recessionary environment where debt repayments come under pressure. Which can quite quickly become a financial crisis caused by debt. The global economy is drowning in debt, way more so than in 2008. Anybody who thinks Ireland is different because our CB imposed income limits on Paddy's mortgage has their head stuck in the sand.Private Debt to GDP in Ireland increased from 257.2 percent in 2007 to 374.1 percent in 2018.
Wanderer78 wrote: » id imagine is rapidly falling, and we seen this the last time also, as soon as the private sectors ability to produce money or credit, significantly falls, and the likelihood of an increase in defaults and non performing loans occurs, the financial sector wobbles. rising public debt is a red herring, governments have the ability to create long term bonds, which can be pushed out for many decades, without it having significant negative effects on economies, in fact, if used correctly, can be a life safer and a lifeline to falling economies, i.e. in current situations, its largely a good thing, and nothing much to worry about
Iceman29 wrote: » HaHaHa this is more of it. A fairy tale answer for everything. Where is you're evidence that will prove that it'll mostly be taken by people heading out the door anyway. Any healthy place I've worked never offered "Voluntary redundancies " but a few unhealthy places I've working in have.....then, unfortunately they weren't voluntary and people let go. But you must be right this time, I'm sure they were going to get rid of 1400 people just randomly.....haha
Cyrus wrote: » im still not sure what point you are making, what exactly are you getting at? House prices are going to fall by huge amounts? Maybe, but despite your protests it hasnt happened yet. also if you read the BOI statement its a voluntary redundancy scheme over the next few years, it likely would have come anyway, most that will take it will be approaching retirement and wont be backfilled, but that wont suit your narrative. god help us indeed :rolleyes:
schmittel wrote: » According to some on here the banks are in rude health compared to 2008 and that is why we won't see a repeat of 2008. It's not a financial crisis apparently, it's a healthcare crisis. This time it is different. Very little thought seems to have been given to how quickly a healthcare crisis that shuts down the global economy can become a financial crisis.
schmittel wrote: » And has private debt been rising or falling?
combat14 wrote: » Bank of Ireland said on Wednesday it will cut 1,400 jobs in the coming years to rein in costs as the lender posted a loss for the first half of the year after taking a €937 million charge to cover an expected spike in bad debts resulting from the coronavirus crisis Group warns full-year loan-loss charge is expected to fall between €1.1bn and €1.3bnhttps://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/bank-of-ireland-to-cut-1-400-jobs-as-covid-19-drives-937m-loans-charge-1.4322469?mode=amp looks like the banks are starting to look a bit wobbly already and we are only barely 6 months into this
SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: » Lol They had planned for the 1.3bn deficit all along?
Wanderer78 wrote: » rising public debt has rarely caused major recessions, its been primarily rising private dept that has caused most problems, as we seen only a few years ago
landofthetree wrote: » People seem to think that its low paid workers who are losing their jobs. But its middle class jobs that are being lost as well. Like in the banks,airlines,hotel management etc Also anybody who was on contract work and looking for new work is seeing huge cuts in their hourly rate. We have an ever increasing national debt plus we have to pay the EU 15billion over the next few years. House prices will fall significantly.
BEdS_83 wrote: » one thing that I read here, and it does make sense for me now, is the fact that people are accepting to live in a NE home rather that wait and bet against the market, I started to save the deposit in 2018, in 2019 I started to look around for house, prices seemed me pretty much impossible for my AIP, 2020 is here, lockdown almost over, prices are still impossible the same and the REIT that I live just sent me this year increase.. I guess I would be one of those people that I find a house just lock that up, live there and didn't carry about market as long as I'm managing to pay the mortgage, it's sad to say that I know, but getting almost at 37 leaves me worried about if I'm waiting too much.. =/ sorry about the whining
Iceman29 wrote: » Careful now, providing evidence gets you labelled as a doomsayer around here Combat. Some people just don't want to listen
Iceman29 wrote: » "Bank of Ireland to cut 1,400 jobs as Covid-19 drives €937m loans charge" For the people who are saying its doomsday stuff, these are actual headlines and real world situations. All it is is copy and paste. If you don't like the news, complain to them. All I'm trying to do is put up things that are actually happening... unlike others who are just talking about how little of an effect this Covid will have on the economy and housing market without any evidence . If you cant see whats coming down the line, god help you
fliball123 wrote: » I said there is feck all decent supply you can buy a load of properties in the back a$$ of Leitrim if you want or a shed in Dublin for 250k. Supply is down 10% on myhome anyways within 3 months. Before covid there was a selection of over 21k properties today its about 18.5k. As for banks I have just yesterday got the mortgage I want and proceeding with buying at asking and I am selling and I have got an over of 9k over the asking so it looks like banks are open for business. Remember they are getting money at nearly 0 interest rates off the ECB it would be a good move for them to be lending especially non first time buyers who have at least 20% deposit meaning a 20% drop in house prices and someone is forced to sell they are still breaking even on top of interest being paid. All of the properties above the only 2 that matter are supply and demand if a person cant afford a house he or she must either rent or go homeless (where they can still get a hous) which means supply stays the same as in thats one less house for others so have. I have said this before the left leaning nature of this country as in "everyone is entitled to a house" means a lot of property that should be for sale is set aside for those on the dole and then you have right right leaning nature of giving vulture funds the economic basis to come in and buy full apartment blocks that dont even hit the market. Currently if you had the cash say 250k you could buy a 3 bed in Clondalkin which current has a ROI of 10% give it to the government for 20 years at a rate of 85% of the ROI you would after tax (on the higher tax rate) clear over 200k and still have a property that most likely after 20 years have gone up in value. That is why REITS and vulture funds are snapping things up they would not get the same return and backed by a government for 20 years + ..So if you had money and you were an invester would you chance the stock market or look at this and go ok good government backed returns If this was a race and it was just people in Ireland buying and selling then prices would come down a lot more than they could but as you can see the race is rigged
fliball123 wrote: » It will without a doubt but when it comes to mortgages the option that would impact on them most when leveraging inflation or deflation would be by using interest rates and I cannot see them touched for a long time and when they are going up it will be very very slowly. Its all to do with timing and with a pandemic ongoing right now it is not the time to be bringing up interest rates
Cantstandsya wrote: » There isn't "feck all" supply though. There was lack of a supply a few months back when everyone had secure employment and access to credit. This is no longer the case. The economic chips are yet to fall. We will see what develops in terms of sellers in the next few months. You mention people in a good position to buy, there are far fewer of those than there were previously. You might counter that the lack of supply balances this out but that's not what I am seeing in my area. Plenty of houses with zero bids. Do you seriously think the banks are going to be providing easy access to credit to anyone not in rock solid jobs anytime soon? Here is the latest from Bank of Ireland. Do they sound like an organisation about to give out risky mortgages?https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/bank-of-ireland-to-cut-jobs-as-covid-19-drives-937m-loans-charge-1.4322469
Marius34 wrote: » That's a big change in myhome trends. I never checked price changes, the massive change in trends is abit suspicious. Where do you get this information (especially what used to be in the past), may you have this stats to share?
