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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

d51984

The current Coronavirus epidemic seems to be getting worse by the day, just wondering what complications if any may happen in the not to distant future.

Can we start taking peoples temperatures on arrival in to the country? Open up isolation centers in major cities? Will Aer Lingus and Ryanair start suspending flights, mainly to Italy so far?

This thing is going to get worse,and now its not a question of weather it arrives in Ireland but a matter of how long until it arrives.

Thoughts?

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Nijmegen

I would say that there is a risk of use it or lose it with USPC, telling them you're shutting it down for an unspecified period of time while everyone goes through T1 and does CBP in the US would likely create long term instability. Also I'd say it's not beyond reason that airline contracts with DAA have minimum performance criteria to include the maintenance of facilities required for USPC.

gral6

The public health advice says do not travel. Unless they change I can see all Irish airports go bust shortly. Thanks God, there is Belfast around the corner so we can continue flying from Belfast. Feel sorry for Irish aviation

Dublinflyer

Jacovs wrote: »

Checking in in T1 then walking to T2 would work, except for CBP have baggage screening equipment in T2 reserved just for their checked in baggage. All precleared baggage have to go through them. So that wouldnt work with bags being checked in in T1.
Post clearing CBP is an option though.

Yeah you are spot on, I forgot about the imaging at the T2 check in desks. Watch this space I guess.

Jacovs

Dublinflyer wrote: »

They could send pax from T1 down the link corridor to Pre-clearance as it's not that far a walk but that would be ugly. It would make more sense to close piers and other parts of the airport rather than a complete terminal. Given TA pax numbers are low could they go back to clearing customs when landing in the US, again thats not pretty. It's going to be interesting to watch over the next few weeks as I guess the daa need to do more to cut running costs. The package they offered staff got mixed reactions especially from the longer serving people. I know so many people in there and the outlook is not good overall.

Checking in in T1 then walking to T2 would work, except for CBP have baggage screening equipment in T2 reserved just for their checked in baggage. All precleared baggage have to go through them. So that wouldnt work with bags being checked in in T1.
Post clearing CBP is an option though.

Dublinflyer

Nijmegen wrote: »

Considering that T1 is no longer set up for USPC security control, it'd be a stretch to see that happening I suspect.

They could send pax from T1 down the link corridor to Pre-clearance as it's not that far a walk but that would be ugly. It would make more sense to close piers and other parts of the airport rather than a complete terminal. Given TA pax numbers are low could they go back to clearing customs when landing in the US, again thats not pretty. It's going to be interesting to watch over the next few weeks as I guess the daa need to do more to cut running costs. The package they offered staff got mixed reactions especially from the longer serving people. I know so many people in there and the outlook is not good overall.

goingnowhere

Closing the 200 gates would be a start, its a strange offshoot, or close the 100 gates which is a massive chunk (and walk).

Nijmegen

Dublinflyer wrote: »

Take this with a pinch of salt as I got it second hand but I heard that SIPTU sent a letter to its members saying that more than likely T2 will be mothballed in a few weeks until demand comes back. Again, second hand info so take it as such.

It does makes sense to close one of them down to reduce day to day running costs.

Considering that T1 is no longer set up for USPC security control, it'd be a stretch to see that happening I suspect.

Jacovs

Dublinflyer wrote: »

Take this with a pinch of salt as I got it second hand but I heard that SIPTU sent a letter to its members saying that more than likely T2 will be mothballed in a few weeks until demand comes back. Again, second hand info so take it as such.

It does makes sense to close one of them down to reduce day to day running costs.

Wonder how this will work with CBP. All of DL, UA and AA are operating again, and EI never stopped.

[Deleted User]

FRAPORT looking to lay off 3000 workers according to news I heard. No expection of demand returning to 2019 levels until 2023.
German text: https://www.aero.de/news-36497/Fraport-stellt-sich-auf-laengere-Durststrecke-ein.html

goingnowhere

Dublinflyer wrote: »

Take this with a pinch of salt as I got it second hand but I heard that SIPTU sent a letter to its members saying that more than likely T2 will be mothballed in a few weeks until demand comes back. Again, second hand info so take it as such.

It does makes sense to close one of them down to reduce day to day running costs.

It make some sense but in the world of COVID lots of space is good

I'd close T1...

Dublinflyer

gral6 wrote: »

No point to have any airport in Ireland now but Dublin T2 open with current government restrictions. Belfast is going to be new international travel hub for Irish people.

Take this with a pinch of salt as I got it second hand but I heard that SIPTU sent a letter to its members saying that more than likely T2 will be mothballed in a few weeks until demand comes back. Again, second hand info so take it as such.

It does makes sense to close one of them down to reduce day to day running costs.

gral6

No point to have any airport in Ireland now but Dublin T2 open with current government restrictions. Belfast is going to be new international travel hub for Irish people.

Tiger Air in Australia is the latest to announce they are ceasing operations saying there is not sufficient customer demand for two low cost airlines anymore. Jeststar of course being the other low cost airline they are referencing.

xvril

There will be very few airlines left by the time this is all over. A lot were barely scraping by as it was.

Locker10a

marno21 wrote: »

There is clear demand for hub access from Cork and this will resume when business travel returns to normal.

**if** business travel returns to normal...

marno21

Cork now has hub connectivity via AMS (KLM), CDG (Air France) and ZRH (Swiss). It would appear that there are others willing to take a chance on hub connectivity from Cork Airport.

Before any of these airlines came in Aer Lingus had 1,000 seats per day to hubs (not including MAN/BHX/EDI). In summer 2018, they were running 5 per day to LHR and 1/2 daily to AMS. There is clear demand for hub access from Cork and this will resume when business travel returns to normal.

RocketRaccoon

goingnowhere wrote: »

I'd say ORK would go first, SNN has business which despite the COVID is still there, lots of 767's showing up for gas going to interesting places its also a ETOPS diversion field

Cargo, privates and of course the military will cover EINN no problem.

Masala

goingnowhere wrote: »

I'd say ORK would go first, SNN has business which despite the COVID is still there, lots of 767's showing up for gas going to interesting places its also a ETOPS diversion field

Jaysus..... you don't pull any punches!!!!

goingnowhere

I'd say ORK would go first, SNN has business which despite the COVID is still there, lots of 767's showing up for gas going to interesting places its also a ETOPS diversion field

RocketRaccoon

gral6 wrote: »

I'd say Shannon airport will be fully closed by the winter.
Also, there is no point to keep terminal 1 of Dublin airport open now with current government's strategy. Very bleak future for many people involved into Irish aviation. It is being slaughtered now.

No chance of EI stopping flights from EINN closing the place down. Their schedule is so minimal during the winter months it'll barely make a difference.

Widdensushi

Should the airlines just stop operating, governments, companies need people to be able to move, instead of flights operating with few passengers (I realise paying back fares is the problem) would it open some eyes to the reality of life without air transport

duskyjoe

Grimacing news re Virgin. The aviation landscape will be a graveyard soon. Pure tragic and so many jobs and careers up in smoke.

Noxegon

Malta, Cyprus, Gibraltar, San Marino and Monaco removed from the green list.

Finland, Norway, Italy, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Greece and Greenland remain.

goingnowhere

It looks real, https://www.businessinsider.com/virgin-atlantic-bankruptcy-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-8?r=US&IR=T and Virgin had been in serious trouble for sometime. They might get lucky but 'business as usual' rarely ends well.

Good and bad for EI, EI funnelled a lot of traffic via MAN/LHR/LGW to Virgin, but equally a big player on US - UK so was competition to EI

Credit Checker Moose

Chapter 15 is an ancillary proceeding that enables a foreign representative of the debtor to seek recognition in the United States of a pending foreign insolvency proceeding. By contrast, a debtor or its creditors may seek Chapter 11 relief, which is a plenary proceeding.

smurfjed

chapter 15 bankruptcy in NY.

how does this differ to chapter 11?

Sheep Shagger

Rumour has it Virgin Atlantic has filed for chapter 15 bankruptcy in NY.

Blut2

Geuze wrote: »

Quick query - if EI did close their bases/operations in ORK and SNN, would those two airports be able to survive?

Is there enough non-EI business?

In 'normal' times, if Ryanair expanded their schedule to fill/take advantage some of the gaps, maybe.

Post-corona? Not a hope. Even if EI don't stop their operations SNN is probably gone, and ORK will struggle hugely.

gral6

I'd say Shannon airport will be fully closed by the winter.
Also, there is no point to keep terminal 1 of Dublin airport open now with current government's strategy. Very bleak future for many people involved into Irish aviation. It is being slaughtered now.

goingnowhere

EI is a significant operator at both

Assuming there is business FR would take some of the gaps, but SNN -> US is unclear

EI could do some voodoo a maintain a Summer BOS/JFK alternate days with the aircraft covering the morning LHR and the rest via a W