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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

d51984

The current Coronavirus epidemic seems to be getting worse by the day, just wondering what complications if any may happen in the not to distant future.

Can we start taking peoples temperatures on arrival in to the country? Open up isolation centers in major cities? Will Aer Lingus and Ryanair start suspending flights, mainly to Italy so far?

This thing is going to get worse,and now its not a question of weather it arrives in Ireland but a matter of how long until it arrives.

Thoughts?

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kona

Inquitus wrote: »

I completely agree, 208 quid doesn't cut it for childcare workers, for hospitality employees, for those in the tourism business and for those who earn substantially more working in aviation. You can't pay your bills, or your mortgage or whatever off the back of that. Hopefully the government extends the mortgage breaks and other supports that are keeping families afloat as this isn't going to get fixed in a hurry!

Another argument entirely but i dont see why somebody who has contributed a substantial aount of tax and will doin the future shouldnt be eligible for stuff on the same level as some of our more work shy population . For example: massivly subsidised housing, free medical, all sorts of allowances depending on circumstances and some back to education allowances.

kona

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Your right it doesn't cut it, but it's never cut it for anyone. Profits were stellar in 2019 then perhaps these companies should be paying back to the staff that created this profits rather than cut cut cut in order to protect shareholder value?

Nail on the head there!

billy few mates

The Legend of Liscannor wrote: »

There is no government advice saying kids cant be minded or coffee shops cant be frequented or petrol stations shouldn't be used.

There is advice/ rules encouraging people not to travel and to keep pubs closed.

Im not trying to claim any victimhood hierarchy points over others but people are being encouraged to not participate in travel abroad. That's a fact.

So what are you suggesting the government should do, pretend it's safe to travel abroad because the airline industry is suffering...?

Regarding the examples you give above with child minding facilities, coffee shops and petrol stations, they have also been affected by this crisis, the crèche around the corner from me has closed because they couldn't make it pay with the reduced numbers and social distancing rules, coffee shops that have managed to reopen are now operating on half the footfall of pre Covid crisis, petrol stations and retail outlets have also had to reinvent themselves.

Van.Bosch

The Legend of Liscannor wrote: »

Yes . Yes I would. But that's a conversation for another forum. I think its the biggest **** up we have made as a worldwide collective in a long time. I fly twice a week as it stands.

Twice a week? As crew or passenger? Commercial airline?

donkey balls

kona wrote: »

Another argument entirely but i dont see why somebody who has contributed a substantial aount of tax and will doin the future shouldnt be eligible for stuff on the same level as some of our more work shy population . For example: massivly subsidised housing, free medical, all sorts of allowances depending on circumstances and some back to education allowances.

Having been there 12 years ago this October its not a nice place to be in, And you have f**k all chance of any help regarding retraining, I.ended up.paying €4500 to retrain of my own money.
Luckily I managed to gst work within that industry and brought some of my previous experience and qualifications to my current employer.

Hubertj

I recall aer Lingus staff going on strike for pay increases and holding normal people to ransom. Now they want to continue being paid for doing nothing. That’s sustainable.

kona

Hubertj wrote: »

I recall aer Lingus staff going on strike for pay increases and holding normal people to ransom. Now they want to continue being paid for doing nothing. That’s sustainable.

How did they hold them to ransom, they are not teachers or bus drivers.

donkey balls

Hubertj wrote: »

I recall aer Lingus staff going on strike for pay increases and holding normal people to ransom. Now they want to continue being paid for doing nothing. That’s sustainable.

The last time I remember the EI crews going on strike was nearly 20.years ago, That is when every aircraft was parked up.
Who said they wanna be paid for doing nothing ?

Jack1985

Talk about IAG's cash position or that of RYR is irrelevant, the fact is that cash is burning at unsustainable rates - We would be talking about months of survival for major airline groups if the attitude was let them use their cash - It is not an endless supply - Which is why jobs are being cut, fleet's grounded or retired to stop cash burn. Airlines hoard cash to withstand shocks but we are dealing with an 9/11 scenario that is reoccurring at a rate of every 30 days in reality at EI. The financial impact is without precedented and I don't think Black Swan planning would have imagined it.

The fact that has to be woken up to is that in Ireland, yes TWSS is provided (as it is in other countries in both the EU/NA) but it nowhere near covers any airlines payroll in Ireland. In Aer Lingus it's covering about 35% of payroll. Ireland is the most reliant country on Air Transportation in the EU, yet stands alone in its quarantine policy and has yet to provide meaningful support to its airlines.

You can't not allow a business to function, by offering tax rebates to citizens to essentially not use its business (a key point in the upcoming lawsuit against the Taoiseach and State). If the Government seeks to do that it needs to support these businesses. I really don't need to remind people the economic shock a collapse would cause, the ripple effect from loss of global connectivity is immense and not as simple as a loss of x thousand jobs it has the immediate effect on the sustainability of 140,000 jobs + and limits connectivity to an Island of which a fundamental part of its economy FDI, is based on open borders.

It's a clever play by EI to state it is reviewing the on-going viability of its bases in Cork (Taoiseach, Minister for Foreign Affairs and Minister for Expnd/Reform all TDs in Cork South Central) and Shannon, the only thing that focuses TD's is locality politics nobody cares about the national interest and if they do, I've yet to see a TD demonstrate it for Aviation.

Blut2

We currently have the most restrictive "green list" in the EU, while also having not given any financial assistance to the aviation industry (unlike many other countries), while also being a highly interconnected island that depends more on the aviation industry than most countries. Its a bizarre combination.

The EI talk of pulling out of both Shannon and Cork is a smart move (and I've no doubt one that's economically justified). Neither airport will be viable without their presence. So it will definitely win over quite a number of local TDs to their cause.

Nijmegen

Arguing that the government is specifically targeting the aviation industry for hurt as a result of covid is like saying they targeted the aviation industry during 9/11 when they closed US airspace and then subsequently made flying a lot more of a hassle. It’s confusing cause and effect a little: The public health emergency demands that travel be restricted so the virus can be better controlled until we have an effective treatment. Unfortunately travel as an industry is one of the most risky / volatile there is given the nature of its inputs and exposure to global events. Oil price shock? Jobs lost. Terrorist attack? Jobs lost. Engineering issues? Jobs lost. Global pandemic is another item on the risk register.

Also, if Irish people are encouraged to and do go on domestic holidays that will support the economy generally and help keep taxes going to support any measures that will help any industry. The central statistics office released retail spending for June and we’re basically back where we were before the lockdown, but spread across different sectors.

And saying that the “grand canal lot” aren’t affected isn’t exactly correct either. LinkedIn laid off a bunch of staff in just the past week or two. And a big worry for the IDA now is that companies may not have to place as many jobs in Ireland itself if the tax benefits are eroded and where people sit is increasingly flexible. Hire Spaniards and Greeks in their home countries at lower cost to man the sales desks rather than paying Dublin prices to relocate them here. That’ll be another long term potential impact on the aviation industry in the country.

The argument that dole should be salary linked is probably a politics forum thing, but the German etc model is preferable to what we’ve got. Then again they pay higher taxes for the pleasure.

dubdaymo

Aer Lingus and Ryanair have been expanding at a phenomenal rate and both have major plans for further expansion. This makes them the bullseye on the Greens' Dartboard. The goal of the Greens is to get rid of all but "essential" air travel. The Covid is a godsend to them. They are not politicians in the real sense - just people with one particular agenda. They have not even the remotest interest in the catastrophic job losses direct and indirect. Of course, this goes further than the airline industry.

Nyphet didn't like their "authority" being usurped by Ryanair resuming 40% of their operation and immediately swung into action to set up as many obstacles as they could think of. Even worse than the Greens they want 0/0 and nothing happens until they get it which, in the foreseeable future, won't happen.

FF and FG are terrified of over-riding these unelected "scientists" and upsetting the Greens.

In Ryanair's upcoming lawsuit nothing will be left undone (that's my nice way of putting it) to give them very little chance of succeeding. They know what will follow if Ryanair wins and it won't just be the other airlines who are waiting with bated breath.

There you have it all in a nutshell.

MrMusician18

dubdaymo wrote: »

Aer Lingus and Ryanair have been expanding at a phenomenal rate and both have major plans for further expansion. This makes them the bullseye on the Greens' Dartboard. The goal of the Greens is to get rid of all but "essential" air travel. The Covid is a godsend to them. They are not politicians in the real sense - just people with one particular agenda. They have not even the remotest interest in the catastrophic job losses direct and indirect. Of course, this goes further than the airline industry.

Nyphet didn't like their "authority" being usurped by Ryanair resuming 40% of their operation and immediately swung into action to set up as many obstacles as they could think of. Even worse than the Greens they want 0/0 and nothing happens until they get it which, in the foreseeable future, won't happen.

FF and FG are terrified of over-riding these unelected "scientists" and upsetting the Greens.

In Ryanair's upcoming lawsuit nothing will be left undone (that's my nice way of putting it) to give them very little chance of succeeding. They know what will follow if Ryanair wins and it won't just be the other airlines who are waiting with bated breath.

There you have it all in a nutshell.

What a load of nonsense, this isn't a Green conspiracy. If it was they'd be taxing aviation.

Geuze

Quick query - if EI did close their bases/operations in ORK and SNN, would those two airports be able to survive?

Is there enough non-EI business?

LiamaDelta

Geuze wrote: »

Quick query - if EI did close their bases/operations in ORK and SNN, would those two airports be able to survive?

Is there enough non-EI business?

Closing their base doesn't necessarily mean ending flights in/out of there. They might decide to operate flights in a W pattern e.g. DUB-LHR-ORK-LHR-DUB. It just means not having aircraft/staff/engineering support based there and making savings that way.

Noxegon

MrMusician18 wrote: »

What a load of nonsense, this isn't a Green conspiracy. If it was they'd be taxing aviation.

They want to:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ireland-election-greens/likely-irish-kingmaker-green-party-eyes-aviation-tax-megaprojects-idUSKBN2002HE

goingnowhere

EI is a significant operator at both

Assuming there is business FR would take some of the gaps, but SNN -> US is unclear

EI could do some voodoo a maintain a Summer BOS/JFK alternate days with the aircraft covering the morning LHR and the rest via a W

gral6

I'd say Shannon airport will be fully closed by the winter.
Also, there is no point to keep terminal 1 of Dublin airport open now with current government's strategy. Very bleak future for many people involved into Irish aviation. It is being slaughtered now.

Blut2

Geuze wrote: »

Quick query - if EI did close their bases/operations in ORK and SNN, would those two airports be able to survive?

Is there enough non-EI business?

In 'normal' times, if Ryanair expanded their schedule to fill/take advantage some of the gaps, maybe.

Post-corona? Not a hope. Even if EI don't stop their operations SNN is probably gone, and ORK will struggle hugely.

Sheep Shagger

Rumour has it Virgin Atlantic has filed for chapter 15 bankruptcy in NY.

smurfjed

chapter 15 bankruptcy in NY.

how does this differ to chapter 11?

Credit Checker Moose

Chapter 15 is an ancillary proceeding that enables a foreign representative of the debtor to seek recognition in the United States of a pending foreign insolvency proceeding. By contrast, a debtor or its creditors may seek Chapter 11 relief, which is a plenary proceeding.

goingnowhere

It looks real, https://www.businessinsider.com/virgin-atlantic-bankruptcy-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-8?r=US&IR=T and Virgin had been in serious trouble for sometime. They might get lucky but 'business as usual' rarely ends well.

Good and bad for EI, EI funnelled a lot of traffic via MAN/LHR/LGW to Virgin, but equally a big player on US - UK so was competition to EI

Noxegon

Malta, Cyprus, Gibraltar, San Marino and Monaco removed from the green list.

Finland, Norway, Italy, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Greece and Greenland remain.

duskyjoe

Grimacing news re Virgin. The aviation landscape will be a graveyard soon. Pure tragic and so many jobs and careers up in smoke.

Widdensushi

Should the airlines just stop operating, governments, companies need people to be able to move, instead of flights operating with few passengers (I realise paying back fares is the problem) would it open some eyes to the reality of life without air transport

RocketRaccoon

gral6 wrote: »

I'd say Shannon airport will be fully closed by the winter.
Also, there is no point to keep terminal 1 of Dublin airport open now with current government's strategy. Very bleak future for many people involved into Irish aviation. It is being slaughtered now.

No chance of EI stopping flights from EINN closing the place down. Their schedule is so minimal during the winter months it'll barely make a difference.

goingnowhere

I'd say ORK would go first, SNN has business which despite the COVID is still there, lots of 767's showing up for gas going to interesting places its also a ETOPS diversion field

Masala

goingnowhere wrote: »

I'd say ORK would go first, SNN has business which despite the COVID is still there, lots of 767's showing up for gas going to interesting places its also a ETOPS diversion field

Jaysus..... you don't pull any punches!!!!

RocketRaccoon

goingnowhere wrote: »

I'd say ORK would go first, SNN has business which despite the COVID is still there, lots of 767's showing up for gas going to interesting places its also a ETOPS diversion field

Cargo, privates and of course the military will cover EINN no problem.