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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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awec

brisan wrote: »

Good news if your income stream has not been impacted and you are mortgage approved
Less buyers = less competition for property

Not necessarily, mortgage approvals have dropped 50% according to your link but how many of the 50% are current property owners who are now no longer selling?

Assetbacked

JohnnyChimpo wrote: »

Hate to break it to you, but Brexit happened in January

In name only, but the transition period is just another concept for an extension. Until there is no transition period any longer, a Brexit has not happened. We have had years of talk about the negative impacts of Brexit, including claims that Brexit was the reason for house prices starting to decrease. It is a red herring in this context, as I feel it would be a short-term bump to house prices.

Ozark707

Assetbacked wrote: »

In name only, but the transition period is just another concept for an extension. Until there is no transition period any longer, a Brexit has not happened. We have had years of talk about the negative impacts of Brexit, including claims that Brexit was the reason for house prices starting to decrease. It is a red herring in this context, as I feel it would be a short-term bump to house prices.

Not wanting to get to involved in the merits/demerits of Brexit I think it is fair to say that a hard Brexit would be negative for us here and as a consequence would hit the housing market in some form. So if you are buying now you must be reckoning on a deal of some sorts being struck. It looks like it has to be done one way or another by the end of October (to allow for EU parliaments to rarify).

Assetbacked

Ozark707 wrote: »

Not wanting to get to involved in the merits/demerits of Brexit I think it is fair to say that a hard Brexit would be negative for us here and as a consequence would hit the housing market in some form. So if you are buying now you must be reckoning on a deal of some sorts being struck. It looks like it has to be done one way or another by the end of October (to allow for EU parliaments to rarify).

My parents received a couple of enquiries from the UK on their house a few weeks ago, hoping to view once travel resumes. The removal of capital from the UK may be ready to go if it hasn't already but the removal of bodies hasn't really happened and I think that is why our housing market may receive a boost from Brexit. It may only be short-term though.

c.p.w.g.w

Assetbacked wrote: »

My parents received a couple of enquiries from the UK on their house a few weeks ago, hoping to view once travel resumes. The removal of capital from the UK may be ready to go if it hasn't already but the removal of bodies hasn't really happened and I think that is why our housing market may receive a boost from Brexit. It may only be short-term though.

Our Beef & Diary are sold as premium produce in many countries

Assetbacked

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Our Beef & Diary are sold as premium produce in many countries

That won't really impact our housing market though.

RANIA

Is it wrong to ask an ea what price will take a property off the market without viewing it and if so why

MacronvFrugals

Its anecdotal but pretty common from reading this thread.

Two of my friends in the last month have both bought homes in Dublin, one even borrowed off family members to seal the deal(facilitated by the EA ensuring him 20k extra will get this through quick) just to use the mortgage approval as they're in somewhat risky industries with Covid/ND Brexit.

1150 a month is an awful lot nicer than 2150, that was his rational even with office rumors suggesting layoffs incoming.

PommieBast

Assetbacked wrote: »

My parents received a couple of enquiries from the UK on their house a few weeks ago, hoping to view once travel resumes. The removal of capital from the UK may be ready to go if it hasn't already but the removal of bodies hasn't really happened and I think that is why our housing market may receive a boost from Brexit. It may only be short-term though.

A Brexit bonanza is something that both EAs and recruiters have been talking up for years. Compared to the UK the Irish property market is basically poor quality stock coupled with an utter lack of professionalism, so if there is a flood of people most will turn back pretty quickly.

Graham

PommieBast wrote: »

Compared to the UK the Irish property market is basically poor quality stock coupled with an utter lack of professionalism, so if there is a flood of people most will turn back pretty quickly.

To be honest I wouldn't hold up the UK as a shining example of a property or construction market.

JamesMason

Graham wrote: »

To be honest I wouldn't hold up the UK as a shining example of a property or construction market.

High quality building regulations and more transparent estate agency/legal processes for starters...

Iceman29

combat14 wrote: »

wonder what has Coveney so spooked, guess with Covid 19 it is easy to forget we have a possible hard Brexit coming rapidly down the track:

Second shock’ of Brexit may be too much for Ireland to withstand, Coveney warned in secret document

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/second-shock-of-brexit-may-be-too-much-for-ireland-to-withstand-coveney-warned-in-secret-document-1.4317097?mode=amp

sure look at todays headlines.......nothing to see here......Surely the bulls will admit that the writing is on the walls...

US economy in biggest fall since the Great Depression
Stocks drop and government bonds rally on bleak GDP data
Mortgage drawdowns slumped in lockdown but approvals up last month
Travel company TUI to shut 166 stores in UK and Ireland
Covid-19 tanks US economy in second quarter, outlook shaky
German economy shrinks by record 10.1% in Q2
Pandemic pushes Lloyds Bank into the red as bad debt fears rise

Sure this time is different, soft landing, etc etc etc blah blah blah.

lomb

GreeBo wrote: »

I think there is a middle ground between a cottage in ranelagh and an acre in Kildare.

Well realistically yes there is but any kind of reasonably large say 2k sq foot somewhat private house in Dublin with a garden is a minimum of 575k. And that's Clondalkin probably the second worst area in Dublin. My folks paid 60k punts in 1990 for such a house, they watched it climb to 800k and then likely 575-600 today. Even the inheritance tax on it would be more than 3 times the purchase price.
House prices are barmy in general. At least the house I bought I know the productive cost is more than what I paid for it (3000sq foot=551 rebuild +100site cost+time/hassle 50k=700k),so how much could it depreciate by at 460, probably not a lot. I doubt I would part with 600k for my parents house and I couldn't even afford to if I wanted.

awec

Iceman29 wrote: »

sure look at todays headlines.......nothing to see here......Surely the bulls will admit that the writing is on the walls...

US economy in biggest fall since the Great Depression
Stocks drop and government bonds rally on bleak GDP data
Mortgage drawdowns slumped in lockdown but approvals up last month
Travel company TUI to shut 166 stores in UK and Ireland
Covid-19 tanks US economy in second quarter, outlook shaky
German economy shrinks by record 10.1% in Q2
Pandemic pushes Lloyds Bank into the red as bad debt fears rise

Sure this time is different, soft landing, etc etc etc blah blah blah.

The only people who ever waffle about soft landings on here are the people trying to convince everyone else that this time next year they'll be selling houses at half price.

You're soap boxing with this stuff.

lomb

The US stock market is a ponzi scheme. They expect 12% pa returns in mutual funds by buying the s+p 500. How in gods name can you generate 12% unless peoples incomes rise by 12% or productivity increases so profit increases, it bananas.
There is years of fat in stock prices. Interest rates dropping has cushioned the crash as capital has to go somewhere but even so.

wassie

Ozark707 wrote: »

Not wanting to get to involved in the merits/demerits of Brexit I think it is fair to say that a hard Brexit would be negative for us here and as a consequence would hit the housing market in some form.

How so?

So if you are buying now you must be reckoning on a deal of some sorts being struck. It looks like it has to be done one way or another by the end of October (to allow for EU parliaments to rarify).

I don't think there are any home buyers giving any consideration to Brexit at present.

JamesMason wrote: »

High quality building regulations and more transparent estate agency/legal processes for starters...

Dame Judith Hackitt would probably disagree with you there.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

The only people who ever waffle about soft landings on here are the people trying to convince everyone else that this time next year they'll be selling houses at half price.

You're soap boxing. Looking for any news, in any sector that's in any way negative and then posting it in a vague an vacuous way.

In fairness, given that we are in the middle of a global pandemic and the world economy has been in lockdown, it's not exactly too hard to find bad news in any sector that's in any way negative.

Personally I have seen plenty.

I haven't seen too much good news in any sector, have you?

Graham

Mod Note

ok folks, if you'd like to have a general discussion about global economics, share prices, commodities, futures, job losses in Mozambique or other related news please take it to the appropriate forum unless it's relevant to the Irish property market.

Yes I know the global economy is going to influence the Irish property market but the fact that Hamsters Inc (U.S) has made 12 people redundant and seen 2.73% knocked off its share price isn't going to have Irish buyers offering less or see sellers rushing to change their listings.

Please do not reply to this post.

Bass Reeves

Iceman29 wrote: »

sure look at todays headlines.......nothing to see here......Surely the bulls will admit that the writing is on the walls...

US economy in biggest fall since the Great Depression
Stocks drop and government bonds rally on bleak GDP data
Mortgage drawdowns slumped in lockdown but approvals up last month
Travel company TUI to shut 166 stores in UK and Ireland
Covid-19 tanks US economy in second quarter, outlook shaky
German economy shrinks by record 10.1% in Q2
Pandemic pushes Lloyds Bank into the red as bad debt fears rise

Sure this time is different, soft landing, etc etc etc blah blah blah.

And....I will be uneffected by all this so I am going to wait to buy a cheap house....blah blah blah blah

Be careful what you wish for very few walk away uneffected from a global crash some are wishing for.

Iceman29

101 AUGHAVANAGH RD asking 265 sold 265
11 FRANKFORT PARK asking 1.15 sold 1.1
6 CASTLEGATE COURT asking 295k sold 275K
10 BLACK ST asking 295 sold 260
15 ST ENDAS DR asking 515 sold 496
162 THE OVAL asking 300 sold 310
37 GLASILAWN ROAD asking 360 sold 315
5 AVOCA PARK asking 1.35 sold 1.16
6 LATCHFORD SQ asking 300 sold 310
19 BROOKFORD PARK asking 260 sold 255
57 BRIDGEWATER QUAY asking 395 sold 415
87 BUSHY PARK ROAD asking 1.395 sold 1.050
99 VILLA PARK GARDENS asking 499 sold 435
63 NEWMARKET SQ asking 300 (2016) sold 285
195 TEMPLE COURT asking 250 sold 240
4 CARYSFORT ROAD asking 419 sold 370
17 KILLESTER PARK asking 470 sold 397
18 MARLFIELD GREEN asking 249 sold 245
54 DERRAVARAGH RD asking 475 Sold 485
7 KINVARA AVE asking 495 sold 418
128 CAPTAINS RD asking 285 sold 310

Read into this whatever way you want.......

Graham

Without knowing how you're selecting the properties, when the asking was set, when they were sold, it's pretty hard to judge much from that type of listing Iceman29.

Iceman29

Graham wrote: »

Without knowing how you're selecting the properties, when the asking was set, when they were sold, it's pretty hard to judge much from that type of listing Iceman29.

all sold in the last month.....Asking was the most recent price. All from the Property Price Register.....As i said, read into it however you want

Graham

Iceman29 wrote: »

all sold in the last month.....Asking was the most recent price. All from the Property Price Register.....As i said, read into it however you want

So from that data you could guess:

1) asking prices are unrealistic

or

2) property values have changed

i.e. it tells us nothing about property values.

That's not to say your assertion that property prices are falling is wrong, just that your data does absolutely nothing to support your assertion.

Apart from anything else, PPR data represents sales that were agreed months ago at this point.

Iceman29

Graham wrote: »

So from that data you could guess:

1) asking prices are unrealistic

or

2) property values have changed

i.e. it tells us nothing about property values.

That's not to say your assertion that property prices are falling is wrong, just that your data does absolutely nothing to support your assertion.

Apart from anything else, PPR data represents sales that were agreed months ago at this point.

Ok, so here is the selling prices of other houses on the same roads previously , i tried to match them as well as possible to get a rough idea but that's pretty much impossible in some cases. Some streets have a huge variety of prices so its very hard but take out of it what you want...

101 AUGHAVANAGH RD asking 265 sold 265 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 327(2018) FALL
11 FRANKFORT PARK asking 1.15 sold 1.1 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 980 (2018) Rise but its a detached house whereas the others arent
6 CASTLEGATE COURT asking 295k sold 275K OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 250(2019) Rise
10 BLACK ST asking 295 sold 260 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 250(2019) Rise
15 ST ENDAS DR asking 515 sold 496 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 560 (2017) Fall
162 THE OVAL asking 300 sold 310 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 350 (2018) SAME HOUSE Fall
37 GLASILAWN ROAD asking 360 sold 315 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 475(2019) Fall
5 AVOCA PARK asking 1.35 sold 1.16 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 985 (2018) rise but a different house to the rest on the road
6 LATCHFORD SQ asking 300 sold 310 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 261 (2020) rise
19 BROOKFORD PARK asking 260 sold 255 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 345 (2019) fall
57 BRIDGEWATER QUAY asking 395 sold 415 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 390 (2018) SAME HOUSE rise
87 BUSHY PARK ROAD asking 1.395 sold 1.050 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 1.7 (2019) fall
99 VILLA PARK GARDENS asking 499 sold 435 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 450 (2020) fall
63 NEWMARKET SQ asking 300 (2016) sold 285 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 275 (2017) rise
195 TEMPLE COURT asking 250 sold 240 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 285(2020) fall
4 CARYSFORT ROAD asking 419 sold 370 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 485(2019) fall
17 KILLESTER PARK asking 470 sold 397 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 446(2019)fall
18 MARLFIELD GREEN asking 249 sold 245 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 287 (2020) fall
54 DERRAVARAGH RD asking 475 Sold 485 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 500(2018) fall
7 KINVARA AVE asking 495 sold 418 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 450(2019) fall
128 CAPTAINS RD asking 285 sold 310 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 325(2018) fall

Out of 21 houses, 14 decreased in price, 5 increased and 2 weren't really comparable

Smouse156

Iceman29 wrote: »

Ok, so here is the selling prices of other houses on the same roads previously , i tried to match them as well as possible to get a rough idea but that's pretty much impossible in some cases. Some streets have a huge variety of prices so its very hard but take out of it what you want...

101 AUGHAVANAGH RD asking 265 sold 265 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 327(2018) FALL
11 FRANKFORT PARK asking 1.15 sold 1.1 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 980 (2018) Rise but its a detached house whereas the others arent
6 CASTLEGATE COURT asking 295k sold 275K OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 250(2019) Rise
10 BLACK ST asking 295 sold 260 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 250(2019) Rise
15 ST ENDAS DR asking 515 sold 496 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 560 (2017) Fall
162 THE OVAL asking 300 sold 310 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 350 (2018) SAME HOUSE Fall
37 GLASILAWN ROAD asking 360 sold 315 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 475(2019) Fall
5 AVOCA PARK asking 1.35 sold 1.16 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 985 (2018) rise but a different house to the rest on the road
6 LATCHFORD SQ asking 300 sold 310 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 261 (2020) rise
19 BROOKFORD PARK asking 260 sold 255 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 345 (2019) fall
57 BRIDGEWATER QUAY asking 395 sold 415 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 390 (2018) SAME HOUSE rise
87 BUSHY PARK ROAD asking 1.395 sold 1.050 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 1.7 (2019) fall
99 VILLA PARK GARDENS asking 499 sold 435 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 450 (2020) fall
63 NEWMARKET SQ asking 300 (2016) sold 285 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 275 (2017) rise
195 TEMPLE COURT asking 250 sold 240 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 285(2020) fall
4 CARYSFORT ROAD asking 419 sold 370 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 485(2019) fall
17 KILLESTER PARK asking 470 sold 397 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 446(2019)fall
18 MARLFIELD GREEN asking 249 sold 245 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 287 (2020) fall
54 DERRAVARAGH RD asking 475 Sold 485 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 500(2018) fall
7 KINVARA AVE asking 495 sold 418 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 450(2019) fall
128 CAPTAINS RD asking 285 sold 310 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 325(2018) fall

Out of 21 houses, 14 decreased in price, 5 increased and 2 weren't really comparable

I think it basically highlights the common belief that most houses over 500k are way overpriced and never hit their asking. You could also infer that the market is falling as is documented

goingagain

We’re in the south Dublin market, max budget 1.2. Houses are going mad money with lots of bidders. One was up for 850 closed well over a million and needed total renovation.

We’re eager to move on with our lives, but we just can’t find anything. I thought with our budget we’d have our pick. Not the case.

Currently mortgage free in a 4 bed semi next to our desired area, so I think we might stay out for a while longer.

We’re sale agreed on our house, but we think we’ll have to pull out.

Sarn

Looking at the PPR is very useful when buying in a particular area. But the important thing is to compare like with like.

Take 4 CARYSFORT ROAD asking 419 sold 370 OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 485(2019) fall. This is comparing a G rated cottage (looks untouched for 50 years) to a near turn key B2 rated house.

An example would be south facing versus north facing explaining an apparent price increase or decrease. Many other factors can explain fluctuations.

This is why it’s better to see the overall market analysis, that tries to smooth out some of these variances. Again though, you’re better off doing specific research on an area that you’re looking to buy in.

Graham

Iceman29 wrote: »

Out of 21 houses, 14 decreased in price, 5 increased and 2 weren't really comparable

OK, let's pick one; GLASILAWN ROAD

37 - Jul/20 sold 315k OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 475k(2019) Fall *your data
12 - Aug/19 sold 190k you 'missed' this one.
27A - Jul/10 sold 475k

From the data:

up +66% in the last year
down -60% between July & August 2019

Mod Note

above is to highlight why such comparisons are pretty meaningless.

Iceman29

Graham wrote: »

OK, let's pick one; GLASILAWN ROAD

37 - Jul/20 sold 315k OTHER HOUSES ON THE ROAD 475k(2019) Fall *your data
12 - Aug/19 sold 190k you 'missed' this one.
27A - Jul/10 sold 475k

From the data:

up +66% in the last year
down -60% between July & August 2019

Mod Note

above is to highlight why such comparisons are pretty meaningless.

Funnily enough, the reason i probably missed it is because its not on the PPR?????

It's great having a mod who is so impartial

Iceman29

I find it strange that so many of the people with stories of how busy and competitive things are have such low "post" counts. noticed this the other day...... they wouldn't be EA's or sellers by any chance?