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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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JohnnyChimpo

Assetbacked wrote: »

Waiting for Brexit fallout is like waiting for Godot. 4 years later and nothing has happened, now the pandemic provides a good excuse to kick the can down the road further. It's starting to get to the point where another vote on Brexit is not out of the question considering a generation of politics as passed by.

Hate to break it to you, but Brexit happened in January

BEdS_83

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/cost-of-building-a-three-bed-semi-in-dublin-now-371-000-1.4316818
=/

Assetbacked

combat14 wrote: »

wonder what has Coveney so spooked, guess with Covid 19 it is easy to forget we have a possible hard Brexit coming rapidly down the track:

Second shock’ of Brexit may be too much for Ireland to withstand, Coveney warned in secret document

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/second-shock-of-brexit-may-be-too-much-for-ireland-to-withstand-coveney-warned-in-secret-document-1.4317097?mode=amp

Waiting for Brexit fallout is like waiting for Godot. 4 years later and nothing has happened, now the pandemic provides a good excuse to kick the can down the road further. It's starting to get to the point where another vote on Brexit is not out of the question considering a generation of politics as passed by.

wassie

Sure it will impact certain sectors, but I don't see how Brexit will impact heavily on the Irish property market. If anything the commercial sector has gained from this over the last couple of years with firms choosing to relocate to Ireland. We will still trade with UK after Brexit and a trade deal will be done at some point.

I think a UK bad recession will be much more detrimental than Brexit itself.

tigger123

combat14 wrote: »

wonder what has Coveney so spooked, guess with Covid 19 it is easy to forget we have a possible hard Brexit coming rapidly down the track:

Second shock’ of Brexit may be too much for Ireland to withstand, Coveney warned in secret document

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/second-shock-of-brexit-may-be-too-much-for-ireland-to-withstand-coveney-warned-in-secret-document-1.4317097?mode=amp

The economic consequences of a no deal Brexit, I imagine. It has always been fairly clear (before Covid 19 hit and diverted everyone's attention) that a no deal Brexit is gonna hit us hard.

combat14

wonder what has Coveney so spooked, guess with Covid 19 it is easy to forget we have a possible hard Brexit coming rapidly down the track:

Second shock’ of Brexit may be too much for Ireland to withstand, Coveney warned in secret document

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/second-shock-of-brexit-may-be-too-much-for-ireland-to-withstand-coveney-warned-in-secret-document-1.4317097?mode=amp

Cyrus

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

In some estates developers are offsetting their Part V social housing obligation quota by giving say 20% in a less desirable area and none in the more expensive developments.

I read about this somewhere before not sure if its still the case.

Think it depends on when they got planning you can’t do it now but you could at one stage

Wingman2010

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

In some estates developers are offsetting their Part V social housing obligation quota by giving say 20% in a less desirable area and none in the more expensive developments.

I read about this somewhere before not sure if its still the case.

Didn’t Cairns do this in Shackleton Park in Lucan? I understand around 20% plus houses there are part v.

fergiesfolly

JimmyVik wrote: »

Age matters here.
If you were 35 at the time and sat out the last recession until now, you would be 47 or so.
You are looking at a max mortgage term of 18 years at this stage. Sit out this coming recession and you may never be buying a house.

It's been a concern of mine a a well.
Hitting 50, but the mortgage on this house is nearly cleared and I don't want a mortgage of more than 10 years.
Done the maths with the bank and everything's good but don't want to wait too much longer.

Actually bank would give us a mortgage up to age 70 which scared and depressed me. Hate to be paying one that late in life.

fergiesfolly

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Are you planning to buy a new house once you sell your own?

No. Looking to have same size or smaller in a rural location. Not easy finding houses that aren't 4-5 bed mansions in our range

Smouse156

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

In some estates developers are offsetting their Part V social housing obligation quota by giving say 20% in a less desirable area and none in the more expensive developments.

I read about this somewhere before not sure if its still the case.

It was the case especially in the docklands and D4 as they had price caps. Now the are paying more and getting social houses in these areas, paying through the nose for tiny shoebox apartments that cost them more than building two houses on their own land (council land). Some joke!

Graham

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I read about this somewhere before not sure if its still the case.

I don't think it is the case any more.

MacronvFrugals

Smouse156 wrote: »

I’m a first time buyer but not looking to buy till next year. I definitely would consider decent shape second hand properties as long as they’re not delusionally overpriced (which many are). You are 100% correct in that nearly all the HTB is for the builder but it does help those with no deposit saved since the new rules came in (300k new build requires no deposit now).

One thing you haven’t mentioned is the social housing in new estates (10% min but way higher in many) and that is extremely off putting to many buyers which should help your home.

In some estates developers are offsetting their Part V social housing obligation quota by giving say 20% in a less desirable area and none in the more expensive developments.

I read about this somewhere before not sure if its still the case.

Smouse156

fergiesfolly wrote: »

It's the increase in aid that's going to hurt us, I think.
There's no new builds in the immediate area but within a couple of miles. Prices would've been similar, although our house is slightly larger with bigger gardens.

If this scheme was really to help FTB it would be open to all houses. I think there will be a lot of people in our situation who will find it harder to sell with the increased grant.
This is only really benefitting builders.

I’m a first time buyer but not looking to buy till next year. I definitely would consider decent shape second hand properties as long as they’re not delusionally overpriced (which many are). You are 100% correct in that nearly all the HTB is for the builder but it does help those with no deposit saved since the new rules came in (300k new build requires no deposit now).

One thing you haven’t mentioned is the social housing in new estates (10% min but way higher in many) and that is extremely off putting to many buyers which should help your home.

Smouse156

TheSheriff wrote: »

This is another property we have been following.
https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/33-castleknock-avenue-laurel-lodge-castleknock-dublin-d15-pp82

Bidding started yesterday, already at asking.

We've seen nothing but houses going over asking in the Castleknock/Coolmine areas. Have been following this market for near on a year.

No sign of any slow downs (yet).

While it seems a lot for The Knock, it’s in walk in condition, detached and 500k is within many couples budget in Dublin unfortunately! Have you had look at this one?

https://www.daft.ie/12563072

JimmyVik

Age matters here.
If you were 35 at the time and sat out the last recession until now, you would be 47 or so.
You are looking at a max mortgage term of 18 years at this stage. Sit out this coming recession and you may never be buying a house.

Cantstandsya

fergiesfolly wrote: »

Is anyone here selling a property and how have the new HTB rules impacted your sale.
We had planned to put the house on the market earlier in the year but Covid-19 put a temporary halt to that. We were going to test the waters and put it up next month, but the increased aid to FTB means our house will be less attractive to first timers.
We're twenty years here, put a lot of work into the house the last 6,7 years and it would be a great starter home for a young couple or family but I feel we're being pushed out of the market by the HTB scheme.

Are you planning to buy a new house once you sell your own?

[Deleted User]

fergiesfolly wrote: »

Is anyone here selling a property and how have the new HTB rules impacted your sale.
We had planned to put the house on the market earlier in the year but Covid-19 put a temporary halt to that. We were going to test the waters and put it up next month, but the increased aid to FTB means our house will be less attractive to first timers.
We're twenty years here, put a lot of work into the house the last 6,7 years and it would be a great starter home for a young couple or family but I feel we're being pushed out of the market by the HTB scheme.

Bigger gardens, proper parking, mature trees, and long-established, more space, and better locations count for a lot.

Graham

fergiesfolly wrote: »

It's the increase in aid that's going to hurt us, I think.
There's no new builds in the immediate area but within a couple of miles. Prices would've been similar, although our house is slightly larger with bigger gardens.

If this scheme was really to help FTB it would be open to all houses. I think there will be a lot of people in our situation who will find it harder to sell with the increased grant.
This is only really benefitting builders.

HTB was always a two pronged thing, helping FTBers and incentivising new builds.

I think you'll benefit the other way. Your house will be more attractive to 2nd time buyers as the price hasn't been inflated by HTB assistance which essentially makes new homes 10% more expensive for that cohort.

mojesius

fergiesfolly wrote: »

Is anyone here selling a property and how have the new HTB rules impacted your sale.
We had planned to put the house on the market earlier in the year but Covid-19 put a temporary halt to that. We were going to test the waters and put it up next month, but the increased aid to FTB means our house will be less attractive to first timers.
We're twenty years here, put a lot of work into the house the last 6,7 years and it would be a great starter home for a young couple or family but I feel we're being pushed out of the market by the HTB scheme.

I wouldn't worry about it if your house is in a decent condition. I'm a FTB and have been looking for a year. Decent second hand properties we liked have sold very quickly, once they're not madly overpriced and are in a decent location.

Personally, I much prefer older houses to new builds. Generally bigger gardens, more character and I like a chimney/real fireplace. Also a lot of newer properties come with annual service/management charges, which I wouldn't be happy paying.

fergiesfolly

Graham wrote: »

I think that's been the case for the last few years anyway.

I'd guess much depends on how close (price wise) your house is relative to comparable (local) new builds.

There's some comfort in the fact that new-builds are slightly lesser appealing to 2nd time buyers knowing that values are being inflated slightly by the HTB scheme.

It's the increase in aid that's going to hurt us, I think.
There's no new builds in the immediate area but within a couple of miles. Prices would've been similar, although our house is slightly larger with bigger gardens.

If this scheme was really to help FTB it would be open to all houses. I think there will be a lot of people in our situation who will find it harder to sell with the increased grant.
This is only really benefitting builders.

fliball123

fergiesfolly wrote: »

Is anyone here selling a property and how have the new HTB rules impacted your sale.
We had planned to put the house on the market earlier in the year but Covid-19 put a temporary halt to that. We were going to test the waters and put it up next month, but the increased aid to FTB means our house will be less attractive to first timers.
We're twenty years here, put a lot of work into the house the last 6,7 years and it would be a great starter home for a young couple or family but I feel we're being pushed out of the market by the HTB scheme.

I don't think it will impact you as much as you think as FTB will now be in a better position to buy meaning more competition for a very limited amount of properties and new properties always come with a premium. This will mean some FTB will look at 2nd hand as an option as they will be squeezed out for buying the newer property

Graham

fergiesfolly wrote: »

the increased aid to FTB means our house will be less attractive to first timers.

I think that's been the case for the last few years anyway.

I'd guess much depends on how close (price wise) your house is relative to comparable (local) new builds.

There's some comfort in the fact that new-builds are slightly lesser appealing to 2nd time buyers knowing that values are being inflated slightly by the HTB scheme.

fergiesfolly

Is anyone here selling a property and how have the new HTB rules impacted your sale.
We had planned to put the house on the market earlier in the year but Covid-19 put a temporary halt to that. We were going to test the waters and put it up next month, but the increased aid to FTB means our house will be less attractive to first timers.
We're twenty years here, put a lot of work into the house the last 6,7 years and it would be a great starter home for a young couple or family but I feel we're being pushed out of the market by the HTB scheme.

SozBbz

SozBbz wrote: »

Rent is definitely worse these days (or pre covid it was at least)
Back then there was a tax break on the rent you paid and generally I don't recall people living in constant fear of eviction if they ask their landlord to do something totally reasonable, like deal with a damp issue or replace a broken item.

To follow up on my own point about rental during the boom years, IIRC in addition to the rental tax relief, our own individual personal tax burden was much lower, roughly 42% I think, so your net income on X salary was better than it is today.

There was also a steady stream of new supply coming on stream all the time, so if you had to move, it wasn't the end of the world.

Bass Reeves

brisan wrote: »

If you lose your job how do you intend to pay your mortgage back ?????????????

schmittel wrote: »

this is a fairly common comment in this thread.

"Better to buy now whilst you have a job, because you might not have one this time next year."

Madness!

kippy wrote: »

Oh yeah,
I would be one of those not putting off everyone who thought they were going to be out of a job next year from buying a house.

I don't think it's a completely daft viewpoint either based on the Irish situation but obviously there are those that do.

It's good that alternate viewpoints are on this thread.

schmittel wrote: »

It's not really an alternative viewpoint - it seems quite mainstream!

On an individual level I understand the logic of the decision.

What I think is madness that collectively we all just shrug and think sure, that's the way it is.

We are very much an outlier in our acceptance as a society that we are happy to subsidise those who do not pay their mortgages, and it is contributing greatly to our dysfunctional property market and housing crisis.

And if you accept that it is a rational decision to take on a mortgage irrespective of your confidence in your ability to repay it, then it must also follow that it is a rational decision to simply stop paying your mortgage even if you have a job and repayment capacity.

This is happening in significant numbers, with current damaging societal consequences and storing up problems for the future.

I'll reiterate that I understand the individual's decision making process, but I cannot for the life of me work out why so many people seem to be fine with the problem as a whole.

There is a logical reasoning for buying now while you have approval if you are a couple especially with children if one of your jobs may be risky. The main reason is rental prices are as higher than buying. Even if prices drop and you lose your job you could still be locked out of the market for 3-10 years living with the hassle of renting and moving every 2-4 years. It may take you 3-5 years to get a full time job, earning may not be as high as in previous job/career, part time or temporary job earning are not allowable for mortgage calculations.

The logic of buying now secures your where you live and your children go to school. It may not be necessary to default at all. You can rearrange your outgoings. For a couple if one loses there job if they have children they will have no need for creche fees. You will have unemployment benefit and after that family income support. There is the option in a female case of child minding along with your own children at home. There is the option of temporary, part time, consultancy and self employed work a lot of which may not give you enough earning for mortgage calculations.

Some of this can be factored into a single person taking the option as well. They have the rent a room, options of renting and working abroad if there career suits. Maube doing Aerbnb Maybe getting rid of the car or looking cutting other decressionary spending.

In both cases even if you really struggle with repayments banks will be much more willing to work with you and stretch repayments over a longer period or go interest only for a period

Marius34

GreeBo wrote: »

That shows demand falling off a cliff, I think it's hard to know the impact that had on approvals, for example maybe only poor applicants were left?

Btw I'm not saying that lending hasn't tightened, just questioning the rate/impact.

I looked at the detailed survey results.
They question the banks opinion which they should provide answer:
1 - Decreased considerably
2 - Decreased somewhat
3 - Remained basically unchanged
4 - Increased somewhat
5 - Increased considerably.

To question on household Loan application rejection, it scored 3.6 Meaning some banks answered "Remained basically unchanged", others "Increased somewhat".

To question on demands for loans for house purchase it scored 1.2 Meaning vast majority of banks answered that "Decreased considerably".

I believe it was well expected that overly Loan Approvals will go down significantly during the lock down, as it could be expected that it will increase from the May low.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

It's not really an alternative viewpoint - it seems quite mainstream!

On an individual level I understand the logic of the decision.

What I think is madness that collectively we all just shrug and think sure, that's the way it is.

We are very much an outlier in our acceptance as a society that we are happy to subsidise those who do not pay their mortgages, and it is contributing greatly to our dysfunctional property market and housing crisis.

And if you accept that it is a rational decision to take on a mortgage irrespective of your confidence in your ability to repay it, then it must also follow that it is a rational decision to simply stop paying your mortgage even if you have a job and repayment capacity.

This is happening in significant numbers, with current damaging societal consequences and storing up problems for the future.

I'll reiterate that I understand the individual's decision making process, but I cannot for the life of me work out why so many people seem to be fine with the problem as a whole.

I think you're misrepresenting it here a bit.

I would imagine that the number of people who take out mortgages when they know they won't be able to repay it is something around zero.

The reality is that people on shaky ground may take out a mortgage in the knowledge that they are not 100% sure on their employment status in the next year. But these people are thinking that they aren't going to be certain of employment for 3 or 4 years, and that's a long time to wait. They are thinking that they may not get a mortgage next year, even if there's no change in their employment status.

The majority that do this will end up just fine, they'll keep their job or they'll have salary cuts but the mortgage will continue to be serviced. Some will roll the dice and end up unlucky and out of the job. The majority that end up unlucky will go into mortgage arrears, eventually get employment again and work to clear off the mortgage.

MacronvFrugals

schmittel wrote: »

It's not really an alternative viewpoint - it seems quite mainstream!

On an individual level I understand the logic of the decision.

What I think is madness that collectively we all just shrug and think sure, that's the way it is.

We are very much an outlier in our acceptance as a society that we are happy to subsidise those who do not pay their mortgages, and it is contributing greatly to our dysfunctional property market and housing crisis.

And if you accept that it is a rational decision to take on a mortgage irrespective of your confidence in your ability to repay it, then it must also follow that it is a rational decision to simply stop paying your mortgage even if you have a job and repayment capacity.

This is happening in significant numbers, with current damaging societal consequences and storing up problems for the future.

I'll reiterate that I understand the individual's decision making process, but I cannot for the life of me work out why so many people seem to be fine with the problem as a whole.

Every part of Irish society believes it -

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/rte-stars-judges-and-rugby-elite-who-owe-anglo-millions-29887499.html#:~:text=RUGBY%20players%2C%20RTE%20stars%2C%20musicians,the%20former%20Anglo%20Irish%20Bank.

hometruths

brisan wrote: »

Pamela flood and her husband thought this ,as did a number of other high profile people

Exactly, and it has worked out just fine for most of them. And we only hear about the high profile ones, tens of 1000s of others happily living for free whilst the rest of us pay for it.

Many of these people got 100% or 110% mortgages so their housing has never actually cost them anything.

It will continue as long as there is safety in numbers and it remains a rational decision - i.e the rewards outweigh the risks.