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Boxing betting thread

magma69

So in light of quite a few people cleaning up on Senchenko's victory against Hatton tonight, I thought it appropriate to make a thread where people discuss betting on boxing.

I think if you know your stuff, boxing is a much more predictable sport than the likes of football. I tend to bet a lot on outcomes with low payouts than betting a little on big upsets.

I think 3-1 odds at Boylesports on Guerrero by decision tonight is very good value. He's a far more polished boxer than Berto, who's been out of the ring for over a year now. Berto clearly has the size and power advantage but I think there's a good chance Guerrero will box clever to a decision.

Seeing as I won a nice amount on a Senchenko stoppage, I'm going to have another punt tonight.

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langer91

Morrison J wrote: »

Fight doesn't take place till mid-August but took 5/2 on Rachel Ball to beat Shannon Courtenay a few weeks ago. Massive step up for Courtenay who hasn't looked great whenever I've seen her previously. Seems to be a fair bit of money coming in on Ball too the 5/2 isn't available in many places anymore.

Some shout cheers, she was 14/1 two rounds to go and 10/1 heading into the last, wish i had re-backed at those odds

Morrison J

Boooourns wrote: »

Had a go of Donovan at 4-1, generous price. Hopefully he takes to the step up in weight.

Hard fight to call. I don't think Zelfa Barrett is all that but how good is a 35 year old Eric Donovan? So many unknowns as he's never fought remotely close to this this level as a pro, never done 12 rounds, never had to face any sort of adversity.

Thinking of doing a small bet on the fight to go the distance @ 2/1.

Banking on Donovan's gas tank holding up which is a big risk in fairness but he has looked fit and capable of going more rounds in previous fights. Surely he's in the shape of his life for this one. Two non punchers and I'd expect the fight to be fought at a very slow pace given how technical both of them are. 2/1 seems a generous price.

Boooourns

Had a go of Donovan at 4-1, generous price. Hopefully he takes to the step up in weight.

Morrison J

Morrison J wrote: »

Fight doesn't take place till mid-August but took 5/2 on Rachel Ball to beat Shannon Courtenay a few weeks ago. Massive step up for Courtenay who hasn't looked great whenever I've seen her previously. Seems to be a fair bit of money coming in on Ball too the 5/2 isn't available in many places anymore.

Money still piling in on Ball. Reckon that fight will be a pickem with the bookies come fight time.

Loads of fights this weekend but another value bet is Anthony Fox @ 8/1. Far better fighter than his record suggests and I'd expect a close fight in that one for sure. Odds far too wide.

Morrison J

Morrison J wrote: »

Fulton v Leo an interesting fight in the States too. Need to watch a bit more of Leo before making a concrete opinion on it though.

Fulton failed his covid test so Tramaine Williams now fights Leo. Always liked the look of Tramaine Williams. Bit of a poor mans Pernell Whitaker. Very awkward, slippy southpaw who it should be awkward for Leo to adjust to on short notice.

Williams 11/10 to win looks like good value. Would expect him to be favourite come the time of the fight tbh.

Morrison J

Butson wrote: »

In fairness to Matchroom, these fight camp cards are very competitive.
Tricky!

Yep some well matched fights in fairness.

Morrison J

Fight doesn't take place till mid-August but took 5/2 on Rachel Ball to beat Shannon Courtenay a few weeks ago. Massive step up for Courtenay who hasn't looked great whenever I've seen her previously. Seems to be a fair bit of money coming in on Ball too the 5/2 isn't available in many places anymore.

Butson

In fairness to Matchroom, these fight camp cards are very competitive.
Tricky!

Morrison J

Anyone had a look at any cards for the weekend? Few competitive fights on.

Liking Tennyson via KO @ 13/10 and Gill on points @ 10/11 on first look.

Fulton v Leo an interesting fight in the States too. Need to watch a bit more of Leo before making a concrete opinion on it though.

Morrison J

Morrison J wrote: »

Been doing pretty well on these Top Rank cards so will probably go to **** now I post these.

Like Nova to beat Sparrow via KO @ 2/1 tonight.

Don't actually rate Nova highly at all. Extremely reckless coming in and will get beat by a solid puncher sooner than later but don't think Sparrow is that guy. Sparrow a guy who likes to fight at a slow pace. Think Nova will have too much for him coming forward non stop and should get a KO in the mid to late rounds.

Like Jason Maloney on points too but hoping I can get even money or better on that. Lot of money coming on Baez today so hopefully the lines over here shift. Think Jason is the much better fighter out of the two brothers. From the few bits I've watched of Baez today he's half decent tall fighter who will come forward but be able to take a shot. Done 10 rounds before too so fight should hopefully go the distance.

As expected 0/2 ffs.

Nova fought very tentative. Very different to how he's fought before. Like he was saving his gas tank. Still had Sparrow hurt in the 8th but couldn't finish the job.

Jason Maloney is really good. Competitive fight that looked likely to go the distance but corner pulled Baez after the 7th. Frustrating one.

Hearn announces the matchroom schedule later. Hopefully some competitive fights in that.

Morrison J

Been doing pretty well on these Top Rank cards so will probably go to **** now I post these.

Like Nova to beat Sparrow via KO @ 2/1 tonight.

Don't actually rate Nova highly at all. Extremely reckless coming in and will get beat by a solid puncher sooner than later but don't think Sparrow is that guy. Sparrow a guy who likes to fight at a slow pace. Think Nova will have too much for him coming forward non stop and should get a KO in the mid to late rounds.

Like Jason Maloney on points too but hoping I can get even money or better on that. Lot of money coming on Baez today so hopefully the lines over here shift. Think Jason is the much better fighter out of the two brothers. From the few bits I've watched of Baez today he's half decent tall fighter who will come forward but be able to take a shot. Done 10 rounds before too so fight should hopefully go the distance.

Rolling Stone

Morrison J wrote: »

Boxing withdrawals might be getting the best of me with this one but..

Mariusz Wach to beat Kevin Johnson on points @ 4/6

Wach hasn’t stopped an opponent with a winning record since 2015.

Johnson has only been stopped three times in 16 defeats and is very good at surviving/spoiling.

8/15 on PP now. Will shop around and keep an eye on these odds.

Morrison J

Boxing withdrawals might be getting the best of me with this one but..

Mariusz Wach to beat Kevin Johnson on points @ 4/6

Wach hasn’t stopped an opponent with a winning record since 2015.

Johnson has only been stopped three times in 16 defeats and is very good at surviving/spoiling.

Morrison J

Conlan via KO @ 6/4

Lopez decision over Commey @ 11/10

PopePalpatine

What if that fat lad is Mr Bone Saw?

Dont be at yourself

I think both Fury and Wilder beat Joshua, and Joshua and Hearn probably think that too. Can see him fight Pulev, Whyte, perhaps Usyk before he gets in the ring with either of them.

One things for sure; he's not going to win over the US audience by jabbing his way to a points victory against a fat lad in Saudi Arabia.

PEACEBROTHER

Joshua has said in past that fury was boring / not exciting
Now josh says it’s a sweet science of hitting and not get hit -

I’ve never been so confident that fury beats Joshua

jamescd

murphyebass wrote: »

I went with Povetkin to get the ko/tko and AJ for the same.
Main bet was on AJ for the win by whatever means.

I think Hunters untested so hoping Povetkin can show us why he’s still a contender and surprise the bookies.

I think AJ will be well up for this rematch. I think he’ll end it about round 5 or so but I played it safe with most of me beans on the win.

You should have gone for the Decision, great odds

murphyebass

I went with Povetkin to get the ko/tko and AJ for the same.
Main bet was on AJ for the win by whatever means.

I think Hunters untested so hoping Povetkin can show us why he’s still a contender and surprise the bookies.

I think AJ will be well up for this rematch. I think he’ll end it about round 5 or so but I played it safe with most of me beans on the win.

Morrison J

Joshua - Ruiz over 7.5 rounds @ 5/6

weemcd

pac_man wrote: »

Wished I'd seen this sooner, great shout.

Yes I owe you a pint Morrison!

Morrison J

Chisora KO
Selby Points
Taylor- Prograis to go the distance

Treble @ near to 3/1

Small value bet on Joet Gonzalez to beat Shakur Stevenson via KO/TKO @ 8/1

murphyebass

Morrison J wrote: »

Price on like 4 weeks notice. Struggle to see anything bar a Chisora KO tbh. Price will gas.

He sure will. In about round 2. Lol. Useless lump.

Morrison J

Price on like 4 weeks notice. Struggle to see anything bar a Chisora KO tbh. Price will gas.

murphyebass

weemcd wrote: »

I'd take that but I think there's zero chance this fight doesn't end with a KO. Somebody will be going to sleep this one, I think it's gonna be very lively for as long as it lasts.

Lively?! Really? Come off of it. Price is a liability in the ring and Chisora is just picking up pay cheques!

This will be a slow boring fight. Chisora by TKO late on imo.

I hope I’m wrong but on paper it looks like an awful full affair.

weemcd

normanoffside wrote: »

I've seen a few recent interviews with Chisora and he hasn't had a trainer and looks in bad shape.
You can get 16/1 on Price on points. Hmmm....

I'd take that but I think there's zero chance this fight doesn't end with a KO. Somebody will be going to sleep this one, I think it's gonna be very lively for as long as it lasts.

normanoffside

I've seen a few recent interviews with Chisora and he hasn't had a trainer and looks in bad shape.
You can get 16/1 on Price on points. Hmmm....

Morrison J

Don't really understand why Ritson is the favourite tomorrow. Only thing I see saving him is if he gets a hometown decision on the cards. Has been overrated from the start and I think moving up to 140 won't do his style any favours.

Davies Jr decision @ 13/5

normanoffside

Lion Killer wrote: »

Didn't catch the fight. Seems like there are no decent Italian pros. Always a danger of getting screwed over on the cards in Italy - has that reputation. Well done to Tommy Mc.

It was the opposite last night. There was live scoring announced every 4 rounds. The Italian almost got screwed against Reece Bellotti. Even sky had it a whitewash to the Italian but the judges had it a very close SD.

normanoffside

Morrison J wrote: »

Backing Tommy McCarthy tonight at 10/3. Hopefully he finally puts it together. Italian is basic enough.

Great shout.