Cantstandsya wrote: » I think there is a bit of war time mentality, which seems natural to me. The time to really get the fine toothed combs out will be when we can relax. Right now it's still firefighting. Re: house prices though, I don't think the media here is a fair observer. The Irish Times is supposedly the paper of record but has direct interest in the property market and I wouldn't wipe my backside with the Independent.
errlloyd wrote: » We're getting fairly off-topic here. But it is quite different to bash individuals for being moronic and properly question macro strategy decisions. For instance, I think there will be an inquiry about the handling of our managed care homes. We could all point to individual articles about the mishandling, but it probably will end up being a significant scandal, and at the moment it is fairly muted. Now to be fair, the media are being critical of school reopening plans. It just feels like the overall tone is a little less doom and gloomy than it probably should be.
SozBbz wrote: » The new govt have not had an easy ride. The media were relentless about Barry Cowen. They're now attacking them about payment of super junior ministers and their plans or lack thereof to get schools back in September. And they're in place about 3 weeks so hardly much of a honeymoon period.
errlloyd wrote: » I also do think the media in this country is at least "friendly" to the needs of the nation. In the same way the opposition have given the government a fairly easy time during Covid, the media has too. Which I am grateful for. Repeating a consistent message is a huge part of achieving compliance, and compliance with a good message is better than creating confusion by pursuing the "perfect" strategy.
errlloyd wrote: » I think the media is resisting reporting job losses right now, probably for the good of the mental health of the nation. LinkedIn will lay off quite a lot of Irish staff. I know a large multinational engineering firm with a significant Irish operation is about to do the same. I think we're at the beginning of the financial ramifications, not the end.
awec wrote: » Come on errlloyd, you don't really believe this right?
Constantin Gurdgiev wrote: Changing working and consumption patterns will hit commercial property badly, while the lack of purchasing power for first time buyers will dampen the residential market. I have picked my way through the data, and the leading indicators are not good.
Cantstandsya wrote: » I'd love to be able to go for a drink with friends after work, go to the cinema and watch a new release or go to a bookshop and casually browse without knowing what I'm looking for. I have family and friends abroad who I was hoping to see this year who I now can't. The thing is though, I know a lot of people who are genuinely terrified of doing any of those things and wouldn't even consider doing them, even though some form of a couple of them are now permitted. The only thing that might return people to normal is a vaccine that everyone has taken. How long before we have that? Does anyone seriously think December? I'll be stunned if a vaccine is found and tested by December and it would be an absolute miracle if it were found, tested, produced and distributed by December. I honestly haven't a clue what the economy is going to do going forward but I think it's reasonable to assume it's not going to be good.
SozBbz wrote: » Personally, while I'll happily admit that this is worse than I originally thought (worse than many thought I'd venture), I still am cautiously optimistic. I think while we have to live alongside this virus, it does seem like that have been some small wins in terms of doctors better understanding how to treat the illness and reduce time spent in ICU for the most critical cases, and ultimately reducing the death rate. At the start, we knew nothing and were therefore getting hit extremely hard, but if we can keep it to a level that hospitals can cope with, just for a few more months, then we'll be able to operate more normally. In tandem, the likes of Professor Luke O'Neill seems cautiously optimistic about the progress in the race for a vaccine. Once its proven, it will be rolled out to the most at risk, health workers, those working with the public etc and as there are gradually fewer and fewer potential hosts for the virus in the population, it will start to be stamped out. I've heard that they hope to know whether the Oxford vaccine works and is safe (I think they already know this) by the end of the year and then the challenge becomes rolling it out as widely as needed quickly enough. I think the world will never be exactly the same, for example we will continue to see more remote work, but equally I don't think all our preferences will have changed - I know personally I can't wait to go on holiday once its safe to do so, so I do think there will be demand for hospitality jobs again in time.
Cantstandsya wrote: » If a doctor pulls the plug on a patient's life support do they just hop out of the bed and return to life as normal?
Cantstandsya wrote: » Suppose it depends on whether you believe the economy is on life support or simply on pause. Not sure what information revenue have about the future course of the pandemic. Seems like a projection based on nothing to me.
Cyrus wrote: » same as anyone else you would assume but they have to make some stab at what it will be like, our 'relationship manager' from revenue called me a while back to get a feel for what prelim corporation tax we will be paying etc, they are trying to gather as much info as they can.
Bass Reeves wrote: » Revenue are expecting that PUP/TWSS will be greatly reduced by December. They expect to claw back a substantial amount of it. Already business's that are not effected are starting to pay it back or remove themselves from the system. Ya if you work in Ryanair or in a hotel, Pub or Resturant it will be hard to get a mortgage but a large amount of workers will be off the system by year end
brisan wrote: » There will be a percentage of the 800,000 who are on PUP or TWSS who are looking to get a mortgage If the banks continue with their current policies then those people will be unable to draw down a mortgage even if they get AIP
Marius34 wrote: » Yes, BPFI mortgage approvals is an important factor. I do expect gradual increase in approvals from May low point, but not reaching the level of 2019. Although I don't see major issue on lack of credits for Residential property mortgage anytime soon.
brisan wrote: » Each recession is different correct. i reckon the major factor in this recession regarding property will be the availibility of lack of credit. The BPFI report on mortgage approvals over the next 3-6 months will be a telling factor
Marius34 wrote: » Yes, sure, that's why there are no much relation of 2008 crisis with current cirsis in the matter of property market. So last 4 years fall in property price, tells nothing to what will happen now.
brisan wrote: » In 2008 the Government had not placed the economy on life support in Q3 plus there was an abundance of property on the market
Marius34 wrote: » In 2008 Ireland entered recession same time of the year as in 2020. By this time (Q3) in 2008 properties were already selling 10% lower or so, including new builds.
brisan wrote: » Crash in 2008 took 4 years for house prices to hit bottom
Assetbacked wrote: » I'm not talking about the average worker, let's even take 60k as a salary, the price of renting a room is 34% of your after tax salary - I wouldn't consider 60k as a good salary in Dublin consequently. But the main point I had on this was the discrepancy between being able to buy your own 1 bed apartment in the docklands for the same price you rent a room in a shared apartment in the area.
Mic 1972 wrote: » Prices started to drop in 2008, are you saying that recession started 4 years earlier? I remember things started to go downhill in 2007, not earlier than that
fliball123 wrote: » yeah but the last recession didnt have a steep upward curve before dropping. We are now 4/5 months into the corona virus and prices seem to be going up
DellyBelly wrote: » 60k wouldn't be a great salary in Dublin to be honest. I'd say the average salary would be slightly higher than that.. 75k + I'd say
Assetbacked wrote: » By state intervention I mean policies which have starved supply (but helped reduce competition for the institutional landlords) and cause thousands of individual landlords to leave the market each of the last few years as a result of;not building social housing; preventing the market setting rents by providing for RPZs (which only hurts existing rentals and not new builds from the institutionals); getting rid of bedsits (but at the same time allowing co-living); having local councils competing in the private rental market via rental assistance schemes; and making it incredibly drawn out and difficult to evict someone even for non-payment of rent. All of these reasons combined with a net immigration far outweighing the supply increase of rentals is the sole reason for rents being at the levels they are at. And your other point; I'm not talking about the average worker, let's even take 60k as a salary, the price of renting a room is 34% of your after tax salary - I wouldn't consider 60k as a good salary in Dublin consequently. But the main point I had on this was the discrepancy between being able to buy your own 1 bed apartment in the docklands for the same price you rent a room in a shared apartment in the area.
