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Share Picks 2020

beertons

Shoot.

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OwlsZat

Lex Luthor wrote: »

I've been involved on that site for over 20yrs and know a lot of people there in fairly knowlegable positions

I'm not there now, had my fill of the place and seen so many changes there.

some of the equipment that was bought for the early facilities startup is still sitting in storage, it should have been on site by Feb

That being said, they could be wrong but I'm inclined to believe them

Theres no doubt the frequency of node replacement has slowed and they are marginally behind in the die density race. Don't agree TSMC will run the fab. That would be bonkers IMHO.

roosterman71

A lot of the airline stocks are on a down this morning. Might be an opportunity in Ryanair and Easyjet

Bass Reeves

roosterman71 wrote: »

A lot of the airline stocks are on a down this morning. Might be an opportunity in Ryanair and Easyjet

I think you would want to be brave to buy airlines at present. Another issue is that bigger countries are going to bale out there flag carriers. I cannot see am advantage to being super efficient as an airline if flag carriers are baled out

ShineOn7

roosterman71 wrote: »

A lot of the airline stocks are on a down this morning. Might be an opportunity in Ryanair and Easyjet

Ryanair announce a €185 million loss for first quarter of 2020, they only drop 5% and are still above 10 euros a stock

Or is the day still very young on this one and it'll hit €8 by COB?

Bob Harris

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Ryanair announce a €185 million loss for first quarter of 2020, they only drop 5% and are still above 10 euros a stock

Or is the day still very young on this one and it'll hit €8 by COB?

Less than expected and what has them down are the covid quarantine restrictions coming back into force.

Jim2007

roosterman71 wrote: »

A lot of the airline stocks are on a down this morning. Might be an opportunity in Ryanair and Easyjet

At the best of times airlines are financial basket cases, with a long list of chapter 11 and bankruptcy to boot...

Given the accepted return on equities to about 5 - 8%, what is your required premium for taking on the additional risk?

roosterman71

I was in Ryanair at 8s, and out at 12. Might dabble again if it dips below 10 for a small punt. I don't think they'll dip back to 8 again as the initial Covid shock has been managed and from now the restrictions will be on a smaller scale where it's unlikely (I hope) the whole continent will lockdown. Ryanair can then operate in the other regions, albeit with vastly reduced bums on seats as they are now.

heffo500

Kainos Group up 20% on the back of reinstated the dividend, expects annual revenue and adjusted profit to be well ahead of current consensus forecasts.

I recommended this stock in the Stock Picks 2019 on the 24th of December.

Kilboor

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Ryanair announce a €185 million loss for first quarter of 2020, they only drop 5% and are still above 10 euros a stock

Or is the day still very young on this one and it'll hit €8 by COB?

Priced in

littlevillage

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think you would want to be brave to buy airlines at present. Another issue is that bigger countries are going to bale out there flag carriers. I cannot see am advantage to being super efficient as an airline if flag carriers are baled out

By that logic would IAG not now be a compelling investment?

BA and Iberia getting government bail-outs from UK and Spain respectively, Aer Lingus will probably get some kind of a sop from Ireland too. Very low P/E and a 8% fall today to sweeten the deal.

Bob24

Kilboor wrote: »

Priced in

Yes surely everyone was expecting bad numbers, but I still find the price very optimistic.

Right now it is 10.41, and exactly one year ago it was 9.88.

So according to the market Ryanair has a slightly better future profits outlook today than it did a year ago. I really struggle to see this myself.

I can easily agree they are one of the better picks in the airline industry, but the future of their line of business is very unclear, with the best case scenario being a slow recovery of passenger traffic over several months/years before they return to their peak (that is if the virus concerns mostly disappear in the next few months) and the worst case scenario being that it never recovers those levels for the foreseeable future (if the virus remains a major concern for years, and also with a risk of green legislation restricting air travel or making it more expensive - with Europe probably being the most likely continent to see this type of legislation).

Kilboor

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes surely everyone was expecting bad numbers, but I still find the price very optimistic.

Right now it is 10.41, and exactly one year ago it was 9.88.

So according to the market Ryanair has a slightly better future profits outlook today than it did a year ago. I really struggle to see this myself.

I can easily agree they are one of the better picks in the airline industry, but the future of their line of business is very unclear, with the best case scenario being a slow recovery of passenger traffic over several months/years before they return to their peak (that is if the virus concerns mostly disappear in the next few months) and the worst case scenario being that it never recovers those levels for the foreseeable future (if the virus remains a major concern for years, and also with a risk of green legislation restricting air travel or making it more expensive - with Europe probably being the most likely continent to see this type of legislation).

There's a lot of variables to consider with Ryanair. Competition is a big one. I think Ryanair will always be in a better position than other low cost airlines who are on the brink of bankruptcy. Less competition means more business means higher inelastic prices means more money in the long run.

I honestly think it's as simple as that but that's of course only looking at one, big, scenario.

ShineOn7

Bob24 wrote: »

Right now it is 10.41, and exactly one year ago it was 9.88.

The stock market since March in a nutshell

Jim2007

Kilboor wrote: »

I honestly think it's as simple as that but that's of course only looking at one, big, scenario.

It seems though that demand for night trains in mainland Europe is raising as people prefer it over cheap flights, particularly the fact that you can get a cabin to yourself and your loved ones....

there are simpler things to predict....

jams100

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The stock market since March in a nutshell

Same with Diageo.
This time last year 32.40
Today 27.90

Only down about 14% despite pubs/nightclubs being shut

Bob24

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The stock market since March in a nutshell

On average indeed, good point :-)

But there is huge disparity to make up that average.

For exemple Boeing lost half of its value within that timeframe while Amazon increased it by 50%.

I am not saying Ryanair is a Boeing, but I find it hard to describe it as closer to Amazon than it is from Boeing.

Bob24

Kilboor wrote: »

There's a lot of variables to consider with Ryanair. Competition is a big one. I think Ryanair will always be in a better position than other low cost airlines who are on the brink of bankruptcy. Less competition means more business means higher inelastic prices means more money in the long run.

Absolutely agree that such crisis should in theory wipe-out the weakest links and leave survivors with more market dominance when thing stabilise (same could be said about the hotel industry).

Having said that there are 2 caveats I can think of:
- Rightly or wrongly, many European governments don’t want to let national airlines disappear or to let Ryanair take over more market shares, so they will throw public money at some of those weaker links to keep them afloat.
- Even if some of the competition disappears, passenger air traffic still needs to grow back much higher than current levels for Ryanair to look more attractive than it was a year ago. And if/when this will happen is literally impossible to predict at this stage.

Jim2007 wrote: »

there are simpler things to predict....

Yes, while I agree Ryanair has many cards in its hand to benefit if/when traffic picks-up to a decent level, that uncertainty is what I am concerned about. The path to profits seemed a lot clearer and more certain a year ago that it does today. There is a path but it is less certain and that uncertainty is what IMO the market is not pricing.

ExMachina1000

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Ryanair announce a €185 million loss for first quarter of 2020, they only drop 5% and are still above 10 euros a stock

Or is the day still very young on this one and it'll hit €8 by COB?

They have a 4 billion euro cash pile and have made sweeping cost savings.

Medium term they are safe as houses.

helimachoptor

AMD, bought at 40 USD, up at 70 now, been a good return

Kilboor

Providence

[Deleted User]

Kilboor wrote: »

Providence

Still no. I kept an eye on it for a while and not liquid enough. If in for the long haul could be worth a punt (or maybe a fiver

)

Kilboor

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Still no. I kept an eye on it for a while and not liquid enough. If in for the long haul could be worth a punt (or maybe a fiver )

Big yes from me, picked up more today at 4.90 and I'm done now. Would liked to have thrown 500 more at it but doesn't look like it'll hit the 4s again

OwlsZat

plasmin wrote: »

Pure Extract IPO is expected in Aug

https://www.psychedelicfinance.com/articles/pure-extracts-corp-ipo-round

DYOR

How do you buy shares in an IPO?

Irishder

See Glenview bought a significant share of $BHC, i have a small holding and currently red but hopefully this will kick start it.

Lex Luthor

helimachoptor wrote: »

AMD, bought at 40 USD, up at 70 now, been a good return

thats brilliant

results out next week I think

One More Toy

Might as well get in on the fun!

My biggest gains to date have been visa and mastercard, both up 100+%. Can't remember exactly when I bought them

Was considering AMD back in the low 20s, kicking myself now I didn't take a punt

Next buy will probably be Draftkings

fjon

Considering getting rid of Netflix while I've made a small profit. Can't see any reason they would go any time in the near future given their revenue is mostly subscriptions.Anyone holding out?

Shedite27

Netflix is a strange one. Their current results in theory should be a knockout - reduced costs (as they can't produce anything) and massive new subscriptions (as people have nothing better to do). They haven't a hope of matching it anytime soon.

They're a staple good now, no danger of regressing IMO, but can't imagine them growing at this rate ever again. Not sure what that does to the share price, given it's had a big jump recently.

fjon

I think they may have had a modest bump in subs in March/ April, but not all that massive given most people who would want one already had a sub. And yes they are saving money now as there isn't much content being made, but that money will be spent once things get back to normal. Their recent earnings report certainly wasn't good.
I don't understand why the spike around July 13th, but I've a feeling that's as high as it will go for the near future.

One More Toy

AMD up 10% after hours, where's the crying emoji on here!