JJJackal wrote: » If the wage subsidy scheme is maintained, where will the distressed sellers come from who need to sell their properties, which is part of whats required to drive down price
Thierry12 wrote: » By spring 2021 we will have treatments/vaccines in plentiful supply, a soft landing.
cubatahavana wrote: » quick question, as I do not know much about property markets. I'm looking to trade up from my apartment in the northside to a house (4 bed) in the southside. I'd rather a new build than a second hand house. Do people usually bid on new builds or are they supposed to go for the selling price only? Looking at Carraig Bui and Auburn green next week. What do you guys think? 4 beds in three levels at around 660-700. Location seems pretty fine.
Sarn wrote: However, there are still a lot of properties in good locations in the 400-600k bracket, which would still be affordable to those on good salaries, including FTBs (with or without very good deposits) and would be entry level houses in these good locations. It’s these properties where I would not imagine there to be that much of an impact.
Thierry12 wrote: That's great news and smart, why people wan't housing market to crash, I don't know?
Cyrus wrote: » Are you familiar with the location of both of those developments ?
schmittel wrote: » Sunday Times reporting this morning that the wage subsidy scheme will be extended to spring 2021 and "could continue at a scaled down rate until 2022". I think we can assume that employers are not going to look a gift horse in the mouth so they will avail of this wherever possible. I wonder what sort of effect it might have on demand? On the one hand it will cushion the shock and maintain some level of consumer confidence in the overall economy. But on the other hand, if the banks stick to their guns, there will be a large cohort of buyers unable to get a mortgage until late 2022.
schmittel wrote: » Personally I don't think distressed sellers will have a big impact no matter what happens. i.e people will sell if they want to or need to, but there are unlikely to be too many who are forced to.
Thierry12 wrote: » That's great news and smart, why people wan't housing market to crash, I don't know? By spring 2021 we will have treatments/vaccines in plentiful supply, a soft landing.
Bass Reeves wrote: » I think this is the biggest difference between the two trains of taught on what will happen over the next few years. On one side you have a group of posters thinking we will enter a meltdown in house prices with a drop of 20+% and even hitting 50% drop in prices. Some even think this meltdown has started and will happen very fast The second group thinks that because of lending curbs over the last few years that the market never entered bubble territory. Because of this any fall in prices will be sub 10%. These posters think that if the market falls much below this point that builders will stop building and supply will tighten.
schmittel wrote: » I think the elephant in the room is what happens to Airbnb properties. On one of my first posts in the thread I said I thought if they are prevented from returning to STL market business as usual that would be the catalyst for market reactions that would lead to 20% drops. To be honest I thought the new minister would go after these hard given his comments in opposition, but the early signs are that this was fighting talk, and he’s likely to do very little.
Ozark707 wrote: » Wasn't he quoted last week as saying he would be looking to buy up ex Airbnb's?
Marius34 wrote: » Even in case of prevention of AirBnb business, what numbers could be expected to go for sale out of it. Any idea? And I would think not all of them would go on sale in one year, but instead over few years range, would it increase so much supplies annually to cause a major fall? As well it may cause other issue on rentals in the future, for example Ireland has many contractors/freelancers who coming here for 6month/1year rolling contracts, and staying here for few days a week, normally choosing between Hotels/AirBnB/Long term rentals. In a year or two, they might start to travel again here, this may cause another issue on rentals, as there would be less options to choose from.
Lia_lia wrote: » We are thinking of putting on a deposit down on a new build in Cork. House ticks a lot of boxes for us. Currently renting but rent isn’t too bad. Just concerned that we are making a mistake if prices go down. Are we mad to buy at the moment?
guyfawkes5 wrote: » No one will know for sure. If prices fall enormously, but you are living and plan to live in the property for the long term, can afford the repayments, and your employment is not threatened by Covid-19, then it won't affect you. Negative equity will only effect you if you wish to resell and move on in a shorter timeframe (maybe 5 or 10 years), or wish to remortgage your house.
mcsean2163 wrote: » Your mortgage repayments will affect you for years to come, if you can save 30-40k on the asking, that's significant. Then again, what's your yearly rent and was the house price?
Cyrus wrote: » Clear evidence of a decrease in asking prices yes but that’s irrelevant, as I’ve said 100 times there is one source of clear evidence , the ppr , until you start seeing double digit drops from that data source they aren’t actually happening . Does the house in Killiney that sold for 1.2m at auction (200k over the amv) last week indicate prices are increasing 20%?
Cantstandsya wrote: » I can't understand this conceit that when this ends (and it won't be soon and we have no idea when) things will just instantly rebound. Will vanished business just magically reappear? We are likely not even half way through this yet and a lot of business are on life support and will go under as soon as that is removed. Of course I'm just a doom and gloom merchant because I think it's unlikely that we will have a vaccine for this disease in less than a year.
guyfawkes5 wrote: » Hypothetical mortgage payment amounts don't prevent you living in a property or your life plans that you set out beforehand, which is what I was talking about. Depending on their plans, they could be satisfied in life and slightly disappointed maybe they could have shaved off some of your monthly mortgage repayment, and the other is having their life plans completely halted for years and decades at a time by negative equity. I'm not saying they should not focus on prices at all, but they should figure out what's important to them and prioritise accordingly. It is also never straightforward to think of saving tens of thousands on a singular house, as passing on that house (which is more than likely what betting on a big housing price fall this large would involve) means you are taking a big chance that you will not get something similar in the future even if you pay a comparatively better price.
Iceman29 wrote: » I fully get the whole asking price means nothing argument but i have provided facts on houses that have been sold for less than asking price and less than houses on the same road that sold relatively recently. I really cant get why the usual suspects are having such a hard time seeing what is starting to happen out there. its very strange behaviour really. They must be really open to lose a lot when this really hits or either their estate agents trying to prop it up as best as they can. Either way the fact that they're so tunnel focused is quiet funny.
fliball123 wrote: » But Iceman it has been pointed out that if you look you will also see the opposite some houses were at x, then gone up to x + y and sold for x + y + z
JimmyVik wrote: » Its amazing how many people dont understand the disconnect between asking prices and actual sale prices. It just does not compute in their brains.
JimmyVik wrote: » Ive said this before and i'll say it again. I wish now in 2020 that I had bought a house just before the great crash in 2007. Even if id bought at the peak price, I would be sitting here now with half the mortgage paid off. Instead I rented and I still havent bought a house.
smurgen wrote: » And if you bought in 2009 you'd probably have 3/4 of the mortgage paid off or more.
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