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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

d51984

The current Coronavirus epidemic seems to be getting worse by the day, just wondering what complications if any may happen in the not to distant future.

Can we start taking peoples temperatures on arrival in to the country? Open up isolation centers in major cities? Will Aer Lingus and Ryanair start suspending flights, mainly to Italy so far?

This thing is going to get worse,and now its not a question of weather it arrives in Ireland but a matter of how long until it arrives.

Thoughts?

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JCX BXC

Jack1985 wrote: »

You've literally used my argument in the same format I put it, to you. Well done!

Am, no.

You complained about others ignoring statistics, after you yourself ignored statistics.

That + your reply says it all.

Jack1985

JCX BXC wrote: »

Am, no.

You complained about others ignoring statistics, after you yourself ignored statistics.

That + your reply says it all.

Sorry what does that say exactly?

You replied to the OP with the following

JCX BXC wrote: »

You'd feel safer?

Have you looked at the numbers?

I'm looking at the numbers with regard to the OP question in relation to travel in Spain, you didn't seem capable of providing those figures which I have. Your statement above is broad in meaning, and didn't specify locality R values.

You then said,

JCX BXC wrote: »

No interest in detailing the Irish statistics no?

JCX BXC wrote: »

The trouble with using the R value is that when there's such small numbers, R values can shoot up disproportionately.

Again, I responded to the OP question, and provided both average R values in Ireland and Spain but you now point out the R value can be disproportionate.

It's not against the low-level case area's I've provided data for that Irish people holiday in. The same R value is being used to delay phase 4 here but it’s now a problem when I state it for relevant area’s with due regard to the original question?

Again, I'd ask you what does my reply say?

Irish Steve

ENOUGH, Jack and JCX, take your arguments about R to the Covid forum, this thread is for discussion about the impact on aviation, NOT a general Covid thread.

No more warnings

Nijmegen

BA is retiring the 747 fleet, it has apparently confirmed to staff. https://www.airway1.com/british-airways-confirms-retirement-of-boeing-747/

Gaoth Laidir

Anyone know why Aer Lingus have cancelled flights to Alghero (Sardinia)? They've cancelled ours twice now.

Ryanair are still flying to Cagliari and it looks like the flights are not empty (going by the seat map for purchasing seats on next week's flight, on which most are greyed out).

AMKC

Nijmegen wrote: »

BA is retiring the 747 fleet, it has apparently confirmed to staff. https://www.airway1.com/british-airways-confirms-retirement-of-boeing-747/

That's a pity and sad. They were originally going to retire them in 24 but because of Covid that has now been brought forward. I flew on a 747 but I think it was a Qantas plane crewed by BA staff.

HTCOne

I heard Acting Chief Medical Officer Ronan Glynn on Pat Kenny yesterday. He said he fully supported the “green list” concept, and said “it is completely logical that Irish people should be permitted to travel to countries with the same or lower instances of COVID infection without restrictions”. Finally it sounds like there’s some cohesion on the policy taking shape.

goingnowhere

Its hard to argue with, country X has fewer cases so the odds are that you bring it there, not bring it back...

Lets see who is on the list and watch the scramble from EI/FR to update the schedule to chase what little business there might be

Sounds like Britain, Spain, France, Portugal and Germany won't make the green list.

Things aren't looking good in Spain, it shows this is far from over.

donkey balls

Are the Canarie Islands going be lumped in with mainland Spain I wonder, There is no cases in Lanzorote and from following an info page on FB about Lanzorote they really are taking things serious.
Fines for not wearing masks were you have too etc.

HTCOne

donkey balls wrote: »

Are the Canarie Islands going be lumped in with mainland Spain I wonder, There is no cases in Lanzorote and from following an info page on FB about Lanzorote they really are taking things serious.
Fines for not wearing masks were you have too etc.

Only time will tell. Greece, Malta and Cyprus I heard were looking good for a break apparently.

The situation is likely to remain fluid; in a month Spain and Portugal could be perfect and countries who start on the green list might change. I’ll be booking last minute whenever and wherever I do head away anyway, just to ensure wherever I go stays on that list!

HTCOne wrote: »

The situation is likely to remain fluid; in a month Spain and Portugal could be perfect and countries who start on the green list might change. I’ll be booking last minute whenever and wherever I do head away anyway, just to ensure wherever I go stays on that list!

Very true and good advice.

For anyone looking to travel, I'd also make sure to use a credit card when booking if you have it and for any hotels, etc. you book, book ones where you don't have to pay up front and can cancel.

Gaoth Laidir

HTCOne wrote: »

I heard Acting Chief Medical Officer Ronan Glynn on Pat Kenny yesterday. He said he fully supported the “green list” concept, and said “it is completely logical that Irish people should be permitted to travel to countries with the same or lower instances of COVID infection without restrictions”. Finally it sounds like there’s some cohesion on the policy taking shape.

We are currently permitted to travel wherever we want and are not required to isolate or restrict movements on return. We are advised or asked to do so alright, but not obliged or ordered. Yes, we are ordered to fill in the contact form, but the wording in this regard is very different to that about isolating.

So I imagine nothing will change for the countries that don't make the green list. Still no ban on traveling there, just asking people not to. They deliberately have just enough grey in there to make a lot of people mistakenly believe that they can't travel abroad. I suppose the domestic tourism market does need a boost.

Jack1985

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I suppose the domestic tourism market does need a boost.

Nail on the head, we can take money from inbound tourists but most certainly the Irish will not travel abroad! :rolleyes:

It could be completely wrong, but there is a rumour circulating that when they introduce the green list on Monday, that they will also make the the quarantine much more strict and properly enforced for the countries that don't make the list.

Some are saying that will include busing people to hotels for the 14 day quarantine, like some countries do. That might be a step too far, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they introduce very large fines/jail time for people who don't quarantine. Similar to what was introduced for masks on public transport last week and coming to shops soon.

A bit of a trade off. Will have to wait and see.

Blut2

I'd wager thats highly unlikely given we share a land border with the UK (who won't be on the green list apparently). A land border which 10,000 people a day cross with no checks in any form currently. So short of massive army road blocks at every one of the many, many roads from Northern Ireland (which would result in a whole host of political problems) into the Republic it would be impossible to enforce.

Not to mention the fact that no other European country has any system remotely similar, and they're all doing fine. Italy has had fully open borders to the EU since June 3rd with no spikes at this stage.... Ireland is not some unique case.

LXFlyer

bk wrote: »

It could be completely wrong, but there is a rumour circulating that when they introduce the green list on Monday, that they will also make the the quarantine much more strict and properly enforced for the countries that don't make the list.

Some are saying that will include busing people to hotels for the 14 day quarantine, like some countries do. That might be a step too far, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they introduce very large fines/jail time for people who don't quarantine. Similar to what was introduced for masks on public transport last week and coming to shops soon.

A bit of a trade off. Will have to wait and see.

Totally unlikely.

Ireland works on the basis of policing by consent and people taking personal responsibility for their actions.

We are not a police state as yet.

The existence of an open border with NI, which in turn will retain freedom of movement with Great Britain makes any such action completely unlikely.

We have to live with the political and geographical consequences of our location, which does limit the options available to the Irish government.

Transmission of the virus from inward travellers remains low according to the CMO and any such actions would require his input.

On policing with public consent, true, but this is actually what the public want.

A few weeks ago people would have said that face masks wouldn’t be mandatory, yet here we are, with fines/jail time and Gardai pulling people off trains.

In a pandemic, things can change very fast.

I don’t think they will put up a border with Northern Ireland. Instead they will try and treat the island as one and anyone entering the island from north or south who is stopped and found not to have quarantined, can find themselves with a big fine/jail time.

Not perfect of course, but still much stronger then current and a treat that most tourists might not risk.

I see a survey done on RTÉ today, 3/4 of people not contemplating a holiday abroad and 94% considering staycations instead.

Even with a green list, while there will be more flying, I still wouldn’t expect anything like normal.

smurfjed

Iceland Air have said that they are firing all of their flight attendants as they are unable to find a working compromise with their union, the flight attendants will be replaced by pilots. Interesting approach and similar to the BA tactics during one of their previous cabin crew strikes.

Blut2

bk wrote: »

I don’t think they will put up a border with Northern Ireland. Instead they will try and treat the island as one and anyone entering the island from north or south who is stopped and found not to have quarantined, can find themselves with a big fine/jail time.

How can you treat the island as one when one half of Northern Ireland is resolutely Unionist and won't consider any sort of border between themselves and the rest of the UK? The entire reason Unionism exists is to ensure there is no division, political or practical, between Belfast and London. Corona isn't going to convince Unionists to abandon 150 years of this belief system - people have literally fought and died for it. The DUP will never under any circumstances accept a mandatory quarantine for people entering NI from the UK. Which means any controls would have to be at the N.I. and Republic of Ireland border.

LXFlyer

bk wrote: »

On policing with public consent, true, but this is actually what the public want.

A few weeks ago people would have said that face masks wouldn’t be mandatory, yet here we are, with fines/jail time and Gardai pulling people off trains.

In a pandemic, things can change very fast.

I don’t think they will put up a border with Northern Ireland. Instead they will try and treat the island as one and anyone entering the island from north or south who is stopped and found not to have quarantined, can find themselves with a big fine/jail time.

Not perfect of course, but still much stronger then current and a treat that most tourists might not risk.

I see a survey done on RTÉ today, 3/4 of people not contemplating a holiday abroad and 94% considering staycations instead.

Even with a green list, while there will be more flying, I still wouldn’t expect anything like normal.

With respect, your suggestion in your previous post has far deeper political implications than those of people wearing masks.

Do you honestly think that the unionist/loyalist population in NI would consider a quarantine for inward travel from GB acceptable? That’s effectively putting a border between different parts of the UK - I just don’t see that happening due to the sensitivities of NI politics.

I think that air travellers who arrive through NI will continue to be asked to exercise responsibility, and those arriving into Ireland directly will see greater policing of the accuracy of the quarantine information filled out on the locator form.

Calina

LXFlyer wrote: »

With respect, your suggestion in your previous post has far deeper political implications than those of people wearing masks.

Do you honestly think that the unionist/loyalist population in NI would consider a quarantine for inward travel from GB acceptable? That’s effectively putting a border between different parts of the UK - I just don’t see that happening due to the sensitivities of NI politics.

They have done so for animal health in the past. I think if the stakes are high enough, they may.

L1011

Calina wrote: »

They have done so for animal health in the past. I think if the stakes are high enough, they may.

That was at the behest of the DUP supporting UFU though

LXFlyer

Calina wrote: »

They have done so for animal health in the past. I think if the stakes are high enough, they may.

I’ve not seen any indication from the DUP that they would support imposing travel restrictions on travellers from Great Britain.

In fact their MPs have said the exact opposite in the House of Commons.

Imposing animal movement restrictions in the past is one thing, but the symbolism of effectively putting a border within the UK would be something that I can’t see them supporting.

Personally I’d love to see an all island approach but I think there are political realities here that will make that very difficult.

In the meantime the DUP are on the record of demanding open unrestricted air links between GB & NI.

Gaoth Laidir

My graph on the European countries' 14-day cases per 100,000, as of this morning. Flights to Italy could see a whole lot of bookings if this is how the official list turns out.

Data source

HTCOne

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Flights to Italy could see a whole lot of bookings if this is how the official list turns out. ]

Sign me up for that......The EI A330s will be needed!

Jack1985

HTCOne wrote: »

Sign me up for that......The EI A330s will be needed!

I've always wanted to go to Greece.

L1011

Estonia's nice this time of year.

No, seriously. Tallinn will probably be less crowded than normal too!

HTCOne

L1011 wrote: »

Estonia's nice this time of year.

No, seriously. Tallinn will probably be less crowded than normal too!

You’re right, good opportunity to go see somewhere new that I otherwise may have overlooked.....although sipping Pinot on Lake Como or Garda.....I dunno Tristar my friend, I’ve got a fantasy stuck in my head now. Might have to do more than one on the list.

Kcormahs

The 30 days consultation between Aer Lingus and unions in regards to the 500 redundancies will be finished this week. Any update on this?