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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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Sarn

Villa05 wrote: »

Do you believe that the recession will have no negative effect on demand given the unemployment forecasts

With regards to supply, commercial projects have been driving employment in the construction sector over the past 5 years. Should this sector stall, would this not present an opportunity for government to bring forward there social affordable housing building driving stimulus in the economy and savings on Hap payments

It will definitely have an effect on demand in some areas. However, supply is still a big issue. The question is, will the reduction in demand offset the supply issues?

New social and affordable housing would certainly improve supply in some areas, but I don’t see that kicking off for a fair few years.

Sarn

That’s my bias showing. Perhaps I should have qualified that in some areas there will likely be a surge in prices. In terms of houses, I don’t think things happen that quickly, falls or rises. A surge in a housing context, to me, would occur over the space of a year.

In our area, the only new house builds are in the 900k and up bracket, with a few, very expensive apartments available. The second hand houses coming on the market are few and far between, but are significantly cheaper. Once banks keep lending there should be enough competition to offset major drops where there is high demand. Where there is a mix of new and old builds in the same price range I would expect near equivalent second hand properties to suffer.

Villa05

Sarn wrote:

When this passes I expect prices to surge with a vengeance, given that the supply side of things is only going to worsen.

Do you believe that the recession will have no negative effect on demand given the unemployment forecasts

With regards to supply, commercial projects have been driving employment in the construction sector over the past 5 years. Should this sector stall, would this not present an opportunity for government to bring forward there social affordable housing building driving stimulus in the economy and savings on Hap payments

Cantstandsya

Sarn wrote: »

The changes observed really depends on the area and house to house. I know if you looked at recent sales in our estate and compared prices, you’d see a range of 425k to 720k. The type and condition of the house can explain some discrepancies (2 bed versus 4 bed, renovated or run down).

I do anticipate some drops in and around the 10% range. Some areas will see greater drops and others, no drops. With the last crash it took about five years for things to bottom out. There was a near systemic failure in the banking system coupled with wreckless lending inflating prices of property that contributed to the decreases observed. When this passes I expect prices to surge with a vengeance, given that the supply side of things is only going to worsen.

I can't understand this conceit that when this ends (and it won't be soon and we have no idea when) things will just instantly rebound.

Will vanished business just magically reappear?

We are likely not even half way through this yet and a lot of business are on life support and will go under as soon as that is removed.

Of course I'm just a doom and gloom merchant because I think it's unlikely that we will have a vaccine for this disease in less than a year.

Sarn

The changes observed really depends on the area and house to house. I know if you looked at recent sales in our estate and compared prices, you’d see a range of 425k to 720k. The type and condition of the house can explain some discrepancies (2 bed versus 4 bed, renovated or run down).

I do anticipate some drops in and around the 10% range. Some areas will see greater drops and others, no drops. With the last crash it took about five years for things to bottom out. There was a near systemic failure in the banking system coupled with wreckless lending inflating prices of property that contributed to the decreases observed. When this passes I expect prices to surge with a vengeance, given that the supply side of things is only going to worsen.

antimatterx

Mic 1972 wrote: »

These are some shocking drops.
I'm not seeing anything like that happening in the 1bed range in city centre at the moment but i'm still hopefull

I'm looking for 1 beds in Dublin along the DART line. Not now though, in about a year or so. I'm hoping thats enough time for a 10% drop.

Mic 1972

Iceman29 wrote: »

8 ROSSMORE CLOSE, Templeogue, Dublin 6W original asking 550k - reduced to 530 - sold for 508.........house on same street sold for 550 in 2015
72 MARSHAM COURT, STILLORGAN, Blackrock, Co. Dublin Original asking 495 sold for 445. houses on street sold for 475,495,540 and 540
7 MAPAS RD, DUBLIN, Dalkey, Co. Dublin original asking 725 - sold for 700.... house sold for 910 on same road 2017
17 ROCK ROAD, CO DUBLIN, Blackrock, Co. Dublin 475 - 441 no info
3 GLENAGEARY COURT, DUBLIN, Dun Laoghaire, Co. Dublin 400 -385 no info
59 MONALOE PARK RD, DUBLIN, Blackrock, Co. Dublin original 575 reduced 550 sold 525.... houses sold on the road for 650 (2018) 570(2017)
GREENGATES, ADELAIDE RD, Glenageary, Co. Dublin original 850 - reduced to 750 - sold for 680. houses on this road rage from 6.5Mill - 715k

These are some shocking drops.
I'm not seeing anything like that happening in the 1bed range in city centre at the moment but i'm still hopefull

Iceman29

I fully get the whole asking price means nothing argument but i have provided facts on houses that have been sold for less than asking price and less than houses on the same road that sold relatively recently.

I really cant get why the usual suspects are having such a hard time seeing what is starting to happen out there. its very strange behaviour really. They must be really open to lose a lot when this really hits or either their estate agents trying to prop it up as best as they can. Either way the fact that they're so tunnel focused is quiet funny.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

I might be wrong, I don't see poster saying this:
"There will be no drop in residential property prices in desirable areas in South Dublin in the 400-600k range"
I believe he meant, that overly sale price won't go down in mentioned price range in South Dublin, not that nobody will get below asking price.
I guess there is some confusing in this discussion between Asking Price (which doesn't mean much) and Sale Price.

In fairness to Iceman, OP says:

LasersGoPewPew wrote: »

There will be no drop in residential property prices in desirable areas in South Dublin in the 400-600k range. People who own these desireable properties will hold on until the economic crisis has passed. I have been searching for 8 months. Any properties I bid on in this range have all sold above list price which I have been tracking meticulously. There are buyers pulling out of deals but they're only chancing their arm for a discount

This thread is filled dreamers and fear mongers

The only facts he uses to back up his point that there will be no drops in this area/range is that the properties he has bid on have gone above asking price. A few of the usual suspects thank his post presumably as they agree with his point.

Iceman responds with half a dozen properties in that area/range that have gone below asking price, providing reasonable evidence that Lasers small sample is not entirely accurate and thus the basis of his point might be a bit shaky.

Then a few of the usual suspects go after Icemans post saying he is wrong because asking prices mean nothing.

All of which begs the question, if asking prices mean nothing, why might a post saying some properties are going over asking deserve a nod of thanks whereas one that says some are going below asking deserve a rebuttal?

Iceman29

Graham wrote: »

Mod Note

Iceman29, if you have an issue with a post report it.

Attack the post, not the poster.

Not really sure who i attacked or what i said to be honest?

Maybe tell me and i'll know not to do it again

Graham

Mod Note

Iceman29, if you have an issue with a post report it.

Attack the post, not the poster.

Iceman29

Marius34 wrote: »

I might be wrong, I don't see poster saying this:
"There will be no drop in residential property prices in desirable areas in South Dublin in the 400-600k range"
I believe he meant, that overly sale price won't go down in mentioned price range in South Dublin, not that nobody will get below asking price.
I guess there is some confusing in this discussion between Asking Price (which doesn't mean much) and Sale Price.

Not really, just confusion from some who wont take proof and are simply denying facts.

I'm beginning to think they're trolling to be honest

Iceman29

Cyrus wrote: »

And it’s evidence of nothing , the asking price could have been far too high in the first place , if I advertise my house at 2m and I get 1m for it but next door sold for 980 3 months ago what does that imply ? Falling prices or increasing prices ?

8 ROSSMORE CLOSE, Templeogue, Dublin 6W original asking 550k - reduced to 530 - sold for 508.........house on same street sold for 550 in 2015
72 MARSHAM COURT, STILLORGAN, Blackrock, Co. Dublin Original asking 495 sold for 445. houses on street sold for 475,495,540 and 540
7 MAPAS RD, DUBLIN, Dalkey, Co. Dublin original asking 725 - sold for 700.... house sold for 910 on same road 2017
17 ROCK ROAD, CO DUBLIN, Blackrock, Co. Dublin 475 - 441 no info
3 GLENAGEARY COURT, DUBLIN, Dun Laoghaire, Co. Dublin 400 -385 no info
59 MONALOE PARK RD, DUBLIN, Blackrock, Co. Dublin original 575 reduced 550 sold 525.... houses sold on the road for 650 (2018) 570(2017)
GREENGATES, ADELAIDE RD, Glenageary, Co. Dublin original 850 - reduced to 750 - sold for 680. houses on this road rage from 6.5Mill - 715k

that help you understand whats going on??? (can't believe i wasted my time doing this for you, you'll have some other excuse no doubt)

Marius34

Umaro wrote: »

You're fixated on his post as though it was saying that ALL prices in Dublin were dropping.

He was responding to LasersGoPewPew saying that nobody was getting reduced prices in Dublin and anyone hoping for one is a dreamer.

So he proved his point in the micro view quite well. At the macro level we're yet to see any substantial change in house prices.

I might be wrong, I don't see poster saying this:
"There will be no drop in residential property prices in desirable areas in South Dublin in the 400-600k range"
I believe he meant, that overly sale price won't go down in mentioned price range in South Dublin, not that nobody will get below asking price.
I guess there is some confusing in this discussion between Asking Price (which doesn't mean much) and Sale Price.

Iceman29

Cyrus wrote: »

And it’s evidence of nothing , the asking price could have been far too high in the first place , if I advertise my house at 2m and I get 1m for it but next door sold for 980 3 months ago what does that imply ? Falling prices or increasing prices ?

Are you trolling at this stage???
Take your head out of the sand. You are in denial.

Umaro

You're fixated on his post as though it was saying that ALL prices in Dublin were dropping.

He was responding to LasersGoPewPew saying that nobody was getting reduced prices in Dublin and anyone hoping for one is a dreamer.

So he proved his point in the micro view quite well. At the macro level we're yet to see any substantial change in house prices.

Cyrus

Iceman29 wrote: »

I'm not sure you've read my post correctly but these have been sold and i have included the selling price.... which is below the asking price.......

think you missed the whole point of my post or maybe i wasn't clear enough

And it’s evidence of nothing , the asking price could have been far too high in the first place , if I advertise my house at 2m and I get 1m for it but next door sold for 980 3 months ago what does that imply ? Falling prices or increasing prices ?

Iceman29

Cyrus wrote: »

Clear evidence of a decrease in asking prices yes but that’s irrelevant, as I’ve said 100 times there is one source of clear evidence , the ppr , until you start seeing double digit drops from that data source they aren’t actually happening .

Does the house in Killiney that sold for 1.2m at auction (200k over the amv) last week indicate prices are increasing 20%?

I'm not sure you've read my post correctly but these have been sold and i have included the selling price.... which is below the asking price.......

think you missed the whole point of my post or maybe i wasn't clear enough

JJJackal

As I have said before, I believe if drops come it wont be in the short term. If you were not a distressed owner prior to COVID19, your not going to be a distressed owner today. If you were worried about not be able to pay you had a mortgage pause and if possible put a little aside to help pay mortgage once the mortgage pause is over.

As we have seen many times, the banks find it hard to get someone out of a home (over 9 years in some cases...). With a ban on evictions and a mortgage pause they certainly arent evicting anyone now.

My question is who, who doesnt need to sell eg they have bought another house they want to move into would be in a rush to sell now. Lots of sellers may put there properties up but they wont be cutting the price by 20% for example right now (unless it was priced at a price that they would never have gotten eg a house worth 400,000 (neighbour sells for that 6months ago) priced at 525,000)

Cyrus

Iceman29 wrote: »

HAHA unreal. So when will you guys actually give up the charade?
Here is clear evidence from one page of checks....

What i was actually doing was proving that other poster wrong. they claimed that there wont be any price drops....... there are several facts but if you guys don't want to believe facts i really don't know what more i can do for you.

Clear evidence of a decrease in asking prices yes but that’s irrelevant, as I’ve said 100 times there is one source of clear evidence , the ppr , until you start seeing double digit drops from that data source they aren’t actually happening .

Does the house in Killiney that sold for 1.2m at auction (200k over the amv) last week indicate prices are increasing 20%?

combat14

Shelga wrote: »

From my minuscule sample of anecdotal evidence, for the bracket I'm looking in, sellers are not willing to drop the asking price, and buyers are not willing to pay the asking price. So there's a few stand-offs going on. I guess in those situations, it depends how quickly a seller needs to sell, and how much a potential buyer wants a particular place.

Could it be that couples who previously would have bought an apartment to get on the ladder, are now waiting and hoping prices drop so they can buy a house? I really have no idea, I'm throwing ideas out :pac: Obviously there are so many factors at play.

2 houses in my estate in laois on market since last august/September no sign of selling or price drop .. now have disappeared from daft.ie .. will be interesting to see if now mysteriously sold or withdrawn from market .... I think later is more likely awaiting developments .. think people are only starting to realise that we are in this for the long haul and covid 19 is going nowhere yet.......

Shelga

From my minuscule sample of anecdotal evidence, for the bracket I'm looking in, sellers are not willing to drop the asking price, and buyers are not willing to pay the asking price. So there's a few stand-offs going on. I guess in those situations, it depends how quickly a seller needs to sell, and how much a potential buyer wants a particular place.

Could it be that couples who previously would have bought an apartment to get on the ladder, are now waiting and hoping prices drop so they can buy a house? I really have no idea, I'm throwing ideas out :pac: Obviously there are so many factors at play.

hometruths

LasersGoPewPew wrote: »

There will be no drop in residential property prices in desirable areas in South Dublin in the 400-600k range. People who own these desireable properties will hold on until the economic crisis has passed. I have been searching for 8 months. Any properties I bid on in this range have all sold above list price which I have been tracking meticulously. There are buyers pulling out of deals but they're only chancing their arm for a discount

This thread is filled dreamers and fear mongers

Properties being bid over asking prices means nothing as many of the posters above have correctly pointed out.

Prices were already dropping in desirable South Dublin areas pre Covid. Given the circumstances one would imagine there is a reasonable chance that trend will continue.

fliball123

Marius34 wrote: »

What facts, who don't believe?
You provided facts that there are number of properties that doesn't reach asking price, nothing else. Who doesn't believe in this?

The thing is I could go on and pick 5 or 6 properties that have gone up in price. Asking price means nothing

Marius34

Iceman29 wrote: »

HAHA unreal. So when will you guys actually give up the charade?
Here is clear evidence from one page of checks....

What i was actually doing was proving that other poster wrong. they claimed that there wont be any price drops....... there are several facts but if you guys don't want to believe facts i really don't know what more i can do for you.

What facts, who don't believe?
You provided facts that there are number of properties that doesn't reach asking price, nothing else. Who doesn't believe in this?

Vikings

Iceman29 wrote: »

HAHA unreal. So when will you guys actually give up the charade?
Here is clear evidence from one page of checks....

What i was actually doing was proving that other poster wrong. they claimed that there wont be any price drops....... there are several facts but if you guys don't want to believe facts i really don't know what more i can do for you.

An overpriced house will have to drop it's price if it is not attracting viewers/buyers - regardless of covid.

You've given a very small sample in your post. The type of drops you've posted are not happening across-the-board.

Iceman29

Cyrus wrote: »

Again you are making inferences basis the asking price decreases which were being chased up . If they are selling for less than what the equivalent house sold for last year that’s one thing

If it’s less than and over egged asking price it’s not indicative of much really

HAHA unreal. So when will you guys actually give up the charade?
Here is clear evidence from one page of checks....

What i was actually doing was proving that other poster wrong. they claimed that there wont be any price drops....... there are several facts but if you guys don't want to believe facts i really don't know what more i can do for you.

Cyrus

Iceman29 wrote: »

What a load of nonsense.....have you even looked into this before posting a ridiculous comment? it's gas that the deniers all liking it too.... you guys are trying so hard to keep up the charade....

There are loads of examples already if you just bothered to look..... see below a few (remember these would have been agreed probably before covid actually really did any damage ) so what hope is there for the prices not to be affected in the coming months when the true damage is clear?

8 ROSSMORE CLOSE, Templeogue, Dublin 6W 550k - reduced to 530 - sold 508
72 MARSHAM COURT, STILLORGAN, Blackrock, Co. Dublin asking 495 sold 445
7 MAPAS RD, DUBLIN, Dalkey, Co. Dublin asking 725 - 700
17 ROCK ROAD, CO DUBLIN, Blackrock, Co. Dublin 475 - 441
3 GLENAGEARY COURT, DUBLIN, Dun Laoghaire, Co. Dublin 400 -385
59 MONALOE PARK RD, DUBLIN, Blackrock, Co. Dublin original 575 reduced 550 sold 525
GREENGATES, ADELAIDE RD, Glenageary, Co. Dublin original 850 - reduced to 750 - sold 680

that's all from just the first page. I'm sure there are 100's more.

Again you are making inferences basis the asking price decreases which were being chased up . If they are selling for less than what the equivalent house sold for last year that’s one thing

If it’s less than and over egged asking price it’s not indicative of much really

Iceman29

LasersGoPewPew wrote: »

There will be no drop in residential property prices in desirable areas in South Dublin in the 400-600k range. People who own these desireable properties will hold on until the economic crisis has passed. I have been searching for 8 months. Any properties I bid on in this range have all sold above list price which I have been tracking meticulously. There are buyers pulling out of deals but they're only chancing their arm for a discount

This thread is filled dreamers and fear mongers

What a load of nonsense.....have you even looked into this before posting a ridiculous comment? it's gas that the deniers all liking it too.... you guys are trying so hard to keep up the charade....

There are loads of examples already if you just bothered to look..... see below a few (remember these would have been agreed probably before covid actually really did any damage ) so what hope is there for the prices not to be affected in the coming months when the true damage is clear?

8 ROSSMORE CLOSE, Templeogue, Dublin 6W 550k - reduced to 530 - sold 508
72 MARSHAM COURT, STILLORGAN, Blackrock, Co. Dublin asking 495 sold 445
7 MAPAS RD, DUBLIN, Dalkey, Co. Dublin asking 725 - 700
17 ROCK ROAD, CO DUBLIN, Blackrock, Co. Dublin 475 - 441
3 GLENAGEARY COURT, DUBLIN, Dun Laoghaire, Co. Dublin 400 -385
59 MONALOE PARK RD, DUBLIN, Blackrock, Co. Dublin original 575 reduced 550 sold 525
GREENGATES, ADELAIDE RD, Glenageary, Co. Dublin original 850 - reduced to 750 - sold 680

that's all from just the first page. I'm sure there are 100's more.

bluelamp

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Maintaining the status quo isn't sustainable from a public finances perspective. The real fun will begin when the government stay to selectively withdraw support from business it deems non-viable.

I cant see any changes to it happening any time soon.

Neither keeping the payment or scrapping them is a sustainable option - but the damage done to the economy by stopping them would be far far greater than continuing to pay them.

Even if the businesses / jobs that the payments are supporting right now arent viable, I'd argue it's still worth paying them for now. What will be achieved by letting those business close down right now? Landlords left with empty unrentable premises, mortgages / rent of staff left unpaid, reduced spending in the local economy by those workers, increased dependence on social welfare supports either way - just in a different form.

It would be better for society overall to continue as is - and at least keep things tipping over until there is viable alternative employment out there. You'd just be putting people from one form of social welfare to another - and removed any chance those jobs / businesses might have had of surviving.