Marius34 wrote: » Big recession is already here and will stay for a while. 2020 Q2 reported largest economy contraction in our lifetime. Currently, the chance of severe impact on the house price is quite low. Simply due to Supply/Demand economics. But many things can change down the line within years, that no one can tell exactly what will happen in the years to come..
brisan wrote: » People said the exact same thing in 2007
Newbie20 wrote: » You might come on here making up stories but I don’t. 3 different people I personally know that had all gone sale agreed were told by 3 different solicitors to offer less. So you are talking rubbish when you say none would. And they are the only people I know of at that stage. How is it rare inside knowledge? The people in question just told me that’s what their solicitors told them, very simple.
The_Brood wrote: » So basically it is safe to say that no matter how bad things get for the broader economy (and this is even in the worst case scenario if a vaccine is not found soon), the supply is so little and demand so great in Ireland that there can be no realistic expectations of significant house price drops?
fliball123 wrote: » Yeah but there was a lot more choice for buyers back in 2007
brisan wrote: » And with the upcoming credit squeeze there will be a lot less choice for sellers
fliball123 wrote: » That is how it is looking at the moment I mean if you believe KBC we should be somewhere down the line in that 12% price drop it is almost coming into August??
brisan wrote: » The Government subsidies are propping up the economy Practically every day we are seeing job losses. Come September when subsidies end we will see a lot more. Houses being bought now are with mortgage approvals given earlier in the year. Mortgage approvals for April and May at record low levels (for various reasons ) both in volume and in amounts. Things could go bad very fast Every First world country has said they are going into recession,some saying the worst since the great depression (USA),some saying since the foundation of the state (iRELAND) and some saying the biggest recession in the last 300 years (Britain ) Add Unknown outcome of Brexit into the mix and who knows where we will end up. Banks will apply very strict rules to mortgages and the Central Bank will ensure this Supply might stay low but if demand is even lower than prices and rents have to fall. In every recession house prices fall Its up to the Government now to put its money where its mouth is and actually build not buy houses. If they do not SF are waiting at the ballot boxes and FF-FG know this They got away at the last election ,they may not be so lucky the next time
MrMusician18 wrote: » It's not just demand, as in the numbers of people that need housing, but the capacity to borrow that will fall and drive prices down. So while it's correct to say that demand, in a raw numbers population sense will remain regardless of covid, that doesn't matter if they can't get mortgages.
fliball123 wrote: » I agree with all of that but how much of that stops REITS and global investors looking for a return on their money from buying? What stops people who are still working from buying? People still need somewhere to live what is the alternative to buying? Buying cheaper and further away from where you want Renting - sometimes paying more than a mortgage moving back in what mam and dad (not really an option for a couple with a few nippers) As I said this is a different beast and while you rightly point to what will affect demand as in driving it down . other things will drive it up and will also decrease supply as in: No option for emigration Houses currently being built are at a very slow rate and a high % being snapped up off the plans by REITS Current stock of supply is p1ss poor anything half decent is being snapped up From 2007 to 2020 a lot more people to house as the population has increased year on year Family homes are protected meaning very few evictions. Government cannot afford to build houses they cant afford the current expenditure sure we only started breaking even last year before this happened. Banks have already had strict lending practices the last decade they have been a lot more prudent in their lending. Like there are a lot of what ifs, and the biggest factor will be a cure for the virus and every top scientist in the world is working on solving this with billions being pumped into finding a cure. Who knows all I know is currently if I was putting my gaff up I would want what it is worth before Covid if I got an offer of less I would say "thanks" but "no thanks"
brisan wrote: » How many people on 205 euro a week are going to pay 2k a month for a REIT property If people have no jobs , no money ,no access to credit what will the REITS do Leave them empty ?,reduce rents? ,not buy any more because the demand is not there .? Sell them off as Gannon is doing in the Casino in Malahide ??
SozBbz wrote: » Gannon is the origional developer of the Casino. They are not a REIT. Maybe they're selling up to invest elsewhere, who knows. REITs are in the long game. People on social welfare rent expensive units all the time, its called HAP.
brisan wrote: » Nephew had a bid on a house accepted 15K over asking Second hand but in show house condition Bank valuer would only value it at 20k under asking His deposit was maxed as it was so he had to walk This was on Monday
brisan wrote: » Thats basically what I meant Demand is only proper demand if you have the finances to purchase it I am sure we would all love to drive Mercs therefore the demand is there unfortunately the finances are not
The_Brood wrote: » What are the chances the economy will go into a big recession, severely impacting house prices within the next 6-9 months?
Smouse156 wrote: » Lucky him! Valuer, saved him paying 35k over fair value
brisan wrote: » I think the bank were more worried about what the house would be worth next year rather than its value now. He was only 1500 euro more than the next highest bidder Has anybody else details of a bank not valuing a house at the sale agreed price . First time I have heard of it in 38 years of buying and selling
Cantstandsya wrote: » I'm sure it's just an anomaly and nothing to do with the current situation we're in. Someone should have told the bank that the REITs will just buy everything so prices can't go down.
fliball123 wrote: » People who are still working will still be in the market to buy some will have increased savings over the covid period due to reduced costs and not being able to spend. Most jobs lost will be from businesses closing down and those closed down businesses/commercial spaces will be bought and new enterprises will spring up. We have had people on 350 a week for about 2 months now and demand is still there. If people cant leave the country where do they live? REITS give a lot of properties to the government for the homeless/housing list at 85% of the current rent for 10 to 25 years. They don't even have to bother with the upkeep of the property as the government does this for them. So in your Armageddon scenario even do the average Joe who has been working and now finds himself unemployed can no longer afford to buy a house Joe can now go on the housing list increasing the demand for a property that way. As I say its all about supply and demand and moving people who were once working and a saving and looking for a mortgage on to the housing list looking to be housed by the government who in turn get REITS to supply them with property. where is there a decrease in demand in your scenario??
