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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

d51984

The current Coronavirus epidemic seems to be getting worse by the day, just wondering what complications if any may happen in the not to distant future.

Can we start taking peoples temperatures on arrival in to the country? Open up isolation centers in major cities? Will Aer Lingus and Ryanair start suspending flights, mainly to Italy so far?

This thing is going to get worse,and now its not a question of weather it arrives in Ireland but a matter of how long until it arrives.

Thoughts?

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Tenger

California Dreamer wrote: »

Just for a bit of context. Wednesdays AA flight from DFW has 13 econ, 6 prem econ, and 10 business pax on it according to seat expert.

And Fridays had 16 total inbound pax.

But all it takes is 1 to be dangerous.
Was told a story today. A mates nephew (26 Yr old) had to turn down a trip away last weekend.
16 of his mates went along.
1 of them has a brother who is a Covid positive doctor. That guy got his test result back on Tuesday, stupid bastard didn't tell his friends that he was awaiting a test result.
So now those 15 guys (from South Dublin) have all been exposed and have to be tested.

donkey balls

With load factors of just a few people on the DFW flights would it be worth their while flying,Or is it mainly a cargo thing?

Tenzor07

donkey balls wrote: »

With load factors of just a few people on the DFW flights would it be worth their while flying,Or is it mainly a cargo thing?

All the seats were paid for, so they sent the aircraft... I'm sure things like landing slots, maintaining pilot hours and aircraft flying time were all factors.

HTCOne

Pat Kenny show on Friday said the EI flights in from ORD and JFK were both sold out, but in reality they said only about 80 people were on board, not sure if that was 80 on each or both flights combined. People just didn't show up but EI would still get the money I'd say. Passengers who were due to fly on the non running second daily flights were probably moved onto the one that is running.

That AA DFW flight was supposed to be daily but they've dropped to 3 weekly, so likely moved people due to fly on the other 4 days onto the 3 it is running, so they might be making good money om them.

lintdrummer

Nijmegen wrote: »

What are these folks coming here for is the question.

Listen back to the Pat Kenny show on Friday morning (10th) here: https://www.newstalk.com/listen-back

Go to 2hrs 25 and listen to the arriving passengers explain why they're travelling. All the americans interviewed say they're coming here to get away from the situation in their home states.

HTCOne

lintdrummer wrote: »

Listen back to the Pat Kenny show on Friday morning (10th) here: https://www.newstalk.com/listen-back

Go to 2hrs 25 and listen to the arriving passengers explain why they're travelling. All the americans interviewed say they're coming here to get away from the situation in their home states.

Did you hear the fella off the DFW flight who says he thinks it is all being overblown, he knows nobody who has gotten the virus, nobody he knows knows anybody who got it etc. Jesus wept. We can’t go to countries that are completely safe and have zero cases and yet this MAGA a***hole just strolls off a plane from the global epicentre. There was a story in the news earlier about a tour guide in the Burren who cancelled a guided tour with two Americans because they didn’t feel they needed to quarantine for 14 days.

It is absolute madness that we are effectively banning travel to safe countries, or countries safer than Ireland, and yet are allowing the above to happen.

Comhrá

Travel to Spain from Scotland still up in the air...

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/jet2-cancel-flights-spain-scotland-22336309

HTCOne

Comhra wrote: »

Travel to Spain from Scotland still up in the air...

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/jet2-cancel-flights-spain-scotland-22336309

So Scottish passengers just have to drive down to MAN or NCL and fly to Spain, then they’re exempt from quarantine?

There were English families interviewed on the radio in recent weeks flying via DUB to the continent so as to avoid quarantine requirements when returning home. I believe tour operators were actively advertising this avenue.

Deleted User wrote: »

Quarantine is advised, not enforced Read the legislation on gov.ie
"are expected to self-isolate" does not equal "must"
There is no danger that visitors will be put on the next plane out of the Country.

For now. But it can change. For the past few weeks, wearing masks on public transport was recommended but not enforced. Obviously that didn't work. New legislation past Friday night, face masks legally mandatory on public transport, €2,500 fine or 6 months in Jail. Came into force today. Lots of Gardai jumping on the Luas today, pulling people off, etc.

Generally our government has taken the approach of simply asking people to do the right thing. Give people the change to show some personal responsibility. But if they don't they have already shown that they are willing to put in place the force of law.

Until now, the numbers flying have been incredibly low anyway. But if they see numbers increasing and it becoming an issue, it could well change.

Tenger wrote: »

Was told a story today. A mates nephew (26 Yr old) had to turn down a trip away last weekend.

Yes, one of the biggest challenges around all of this is too convince young people to do what is right and take some personal responsibility.

Being young, they often feel invincible and think this is something that only impacts old people.

Crazily people are having Covid19 parties in the US. Where one person who has it throws a party and invites over their friends so they can try and get it too!! A 30 year old died as a result of such a party in Texas yesterday.

Nijmegen wrote: »

If the 10 biz pax are heading off to the 5 star golf resorts rather than to offices for super aware social distanced meetings or work (and how many businesses are making people travel right now?) there’s danger there.

Yeah, it is weird, I work for a very big US company and there is absolutely NO business travel at the moment or for the foreseeable future. Same story for friends and colleagues working in pretty much all the US companies in the same industry.

Also not that many Texas based companies here. JFK or SFO would be a different story.

I'd suspect these biz pax are more likely folks heading to Golf courses, etc. rather then real business flyers. Anyone can buy a business class seat. But I could be wrong of course.

RocketRaccoon

Ryanair cancelling flights between Ireland and the UK for August and September. Blaming the quarantine restrictions.

Masala

RocketRaccoon wrote: »

Ryanair cancelling flights between Ireland and the UK for August and September. Blaming the quarantine restrictions.

link??

LXFlyer

Masala wrote: »

link??

Simply googling Ryanair got me this:
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0714/1153228-ryanair-flights/

Limpy

Makes sence. The government are basically saying what ever happens to the economy happens, you and me will be paying for it anyway.

Limpy wrote: »

Makes sence. The government are basically saying what ever happens to the economy happens, you and me will be paying for it anyway.

I do think folks need to be realistic, even if/when a green list for travel comes into place, the numbers travelling will still be a fraction of what they would otherwise have been pre-covid19.

Of course more will travel then with the quarantine in place. However most will likely to continue to be very cautious.

This is what happened in Sweden. The government there didn't order a lockdown, as they want to keep the economy open, but in reality most people isolated themselves at home and business went way down anyway. As a result the economic impact on Sweden has been almost exactly the same as their neighbours Norway and Finland, except Sweden has had far more deaths.

Unfortunately things won't return to anything like normal until a vaccine, cure or it burns itself out.

Charles Babbage

HTCOne wrote: »

So Scottish passengers just have to drive down to MAN or NCL and fly to Spain, then they’re exempt from quarantine?

They are not exempt, they have evaded. Not the same thing.

JCX BXC

Charles Babbage wrote: »

They are not exempt, they have evaded. Not the same thing.

Not the same thing, but it's not a case of one or the other either.

Nijmegen

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/majorca-travel-incidents-scli-intl/index.html

Interesting article on the Spanish experience so far. Mixed, one might say.

Myself and the missus have got away to Killarney for the week. Happy to report that the place is packed with mostly domestic tourism. Had to drive round Dingle for an age to get parking.

Mostly domestic, plenty of UK reg cars but I dunno the difference between a GB and NI one. There are yanks here who have flown in. Spoke to one couple in the hotel bar who came from NC and saw a restaurant turn away a group after asking about when they got here. They seemed to accept it and move on.

tricky D

Nijmegen wrote: »

plenty of UK reg cars but I dunno the difference between a GB and NI one

They have an I or a Z which are reserved solely for NI, in the first field and only numbers in the second field.

Cookiemunster

Nijmegen wrote: »

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/majorca-travel-incidents-scli-intl/index.html

Interesting article on the Spanish experience so far. Mixed, one might say.

Myself and the missus have got away to Killarney for the week. Happy to report that the place is packed with mostly domestic tourism. Had to drive round Dingle for an age to get parking.

Mostly domestic, plenty of UK reg cars but I dunno the difference between a GB and NI one. There are yanks here who have flown in. Spoke to one couple in the hotel bar who came from NC and saw a restaurant turn away a group after asking about when they got here. They seemed to accept it and me on.

From that article the Spanish experience is that other than a few isolated incidents with drunk (probably Brit) tourists, that everything is going grand and the majority are following the rules. It doesn't seem at all mixed.

You've as much change of catching the virus on your trip to Killarney. Especially when there are Brits and Americans there and no mandatory face covering.

HTCOne

Nijmegen wrote: »

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/majorca-travel-incidents-scli-intl/index.html

Interesting article on the Spanish experience so far. Mixed, one might say.

Myself and the missus have got away to Killarney for the week. Happy to report that the place is packed with mostly domestic tourism. Had to drive round Dingle for an age to get parking.

Mostly domestic, plenty of UK reg cars but I dunno the difference between a GB and NI one. There are yanks here who have flown in. Spoke to one couple in the hotel bar who came from NC and saw a restaurant turn away a group after asking about when they got here. They seemed to accept it and move on.

I've seen far more cars from Britain than from NI in the west in the last 7 days. I pulled into one of the motorway service stations last week and it was packed, 75% of cars from Britain. I always find the easiest way to tell if they're a British mainland car is the first bunch of characters on the left of the plate, the last 2 tell you what year the car was sold and are only ever numbers. 05 means the car was sold in the first half of 2005, 55 means the second half of 2005, 16 means first half of 2016, 66 second half of 2016 etc. They don't use the same system in NI.

Friend of mine was also in Killarney golfing for the weekend, says the town was mostly yanks and brits. Funny how perceptions differ. The yanks alone probably make Killarney more dangerous than Spain.

Charles Babbage

HTCOne wrote: »

I've seen far more cars from Britain than from NI in the west in the last 7 days. I pulled into one of the motorway service stations last week and it was packed, 75% of cars from Britain. I always find the easiest way to tell if they're a British mainland car is the first bunch of characters on the left of the plate, the last 2 tell you what year the car was sold and are only ever numbers. 05 means the car was sold in the first half of 2005, 55 means the second half of 2005, 16 means first half of 2016, 66 second half of 2016 etc. They don't use the same system in NI.
.

This is fine, but perhaps one third of used cars sold in NI are imported from Britain, so perhaps 250,000 vehicles. So if the car is 0 anything it is not as clear as it might seem. NI used have different tax discs, but those are gone now, you'd could check if cars have have garage stickers.

tabby aspreme

I was passing through Killarney last Saturday evening and stopped for food, didn't notice any Americans, a few European tourist's and everyone else seemed to be Irish

Indestructable

We were due to go to Kerry for the first week of August, with the pubs being shut and reports of Americans about we are thinking of changing and going to Spain. I'd actually feel safer and have a better time. Will the green list of country's mean no quarantine on our return? Is Spain likely to be included?

The price of flights and accommodation is roughly the same as in Kerry.

I just don't know what to do.

DubDani

Almost every second car in the North has English plates these days, incl. mine. Impossible to distinguish, really. If a car gets reregistered from the UK to NI it is not mandatory to change the reg, with hardly anyone bothering these days. For fun I just looked out of my window and 14 of 25 cars I could see had a English style reg.

We just returned from a week at the west coast ourselves and met very few foreign tourists.

opinionated3

Indestructable wrote: »

We were due to go to Kerry for the first week of August, with the pubs being shut and reports of Americans about we are thinking of changing and going to Spain. I'd actually feel safer and have a better time. Will the green list of country's mean no quarantine on our return? Is Spain likely to be included?

The price of flights and accommodation is roughly the same as in Kerry.

I just don't know what to do.

Sad state of affairs when a week in your own country is the same price as a week away in Spain, including flights! Hard to see Spain or Portugal making the list. Our government is very cautious so far, it could be a very short list IMO

JCX BXC

Indestructable wrote: »

We were due to go to Kerry for the first week of August, with the pubs being shut and reports of Americans about we are thinking of changing and going to Spain. I'd actually feel safer and have a better time. Will the green list of country's mean no quarantine on our return? Is Spain likely to be included?

The price of flights and accommodation is roughly the same as in Kerry.

I just don't know what to do.

You'd feel safer?

Have you looked at the numbers?

Indestructable

JCX BXC wrote: »

You'd feel safer?

Have you looked at the numbers?

I have.

It's more so the thoughts of running into Americans in Kerry that's really putting me off.
Of course their presence could be being blown out of all proportion.

Jack1985

JCX BXC wrote: »

You'd feel safer?

Have you looked at the numbers?

I'm looking at them here, average R value in Spain as of this morning is 1.71. In Ireland as of this evening, we are between 1.2 and 1.8.

To have an even deeper look at popular Irish Holiday locations in Spain the Balearics is at 0.7, the Canaries at 0.37, Andalucía 0.55 - I can go on.

So, to go back to the OP, what's the difference why should they feel less safe as you imply?

This is the problem on this particular forum, people are ignoring data to suit generalised arguments and it's despicable.

JCX BXC

Jack1985 wrote: »

I'm looking at them here, average R value in Spain as of this morning is 1.71. In Ireland as of this evening, we are between 1.2 and 1.8.

To have an even deeper look at popular Irish Holiday locations in Spain the Balearics is at 0.7, the Canaries at 0.37, Andalucía 0.55 - I can go on.

So, to go back to the OP, what's the difference why should they feel less safe as you imply?

This is the problem on this particular forum, people are ignoring data to suit generalised arguments and it's despicable.

No interest in detailing the Irish statistics no? And you talk about ignoring data! Kerry has (as of 13/07) had 316 confirmed cases since this pandemic began. An extremely low number, with active cases less than 10.

The trouble with using the R value is that when there's such small numbers, R values can shoot up disproportionately. If there's 10 cases, and 1 of those cases infects several people the number shoots up.

If you're going to give out about people's use of data to suite "generalised arguments" it would be a good idea to lose the hypocrisy. Your R value argument doesn't show the full story at all.

Jack1985

JCX BXC wrote: »

No interest in detailing the Irish statistics no? And you talk about ignoring data! Kerry has (as of 13/07) had 316 confirmed cases since this pandemic began. An extremely low number, with active cases less than 10.

You've literally used my argument in the same format I put it, to you. Well done!