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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

d51984

The current Coronavirus epidemic seems to be getting worse by the day, just wondering what complications if any may happen in the not to distant future.

Can we start taking peoples temperatures on arrival in to the country? Open up isolation centers in major cities? Will Aer Lingus and Ryanair start suspending flights, mainly to Italy so far?

This thing is going to get worse,and now its not a question of weather it arrives in Ireland but a matter of how long until it arrives.

Thoughts?

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Tenzor07

Well there ya go, every day this hodge-podge new Government don't do their job then more people will lose theirs...

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0710/1152574-aviation-will-not-survive-essential-travel-policy/

The body says thousands of high-skilled well-paid jobs and a level of global passenger and cargo connectivity critical to Ireland's economy and its economic recovery are now at risk.

It says that while Ireland's aviation sector entered the crisis from a position of reasonable strength, the stagnation of the industry now means otherwise viable companies across the industry and its supply chain here may be unable to trade their way through and risk of bankruptcies looms.

"Each day and passing week of confusion and stagnation in the Irish aviation sector increases the probability of job losses, long-term loss of connectivity, unbalanced regional development and economic damage (including a risk to foreign direct investment)," the report states.

On the other hand if we get hit by a second wave of the virus due to travel and have to go into lockdown again, the damage to our economy will be far greater then just the airline industry.

It is a difficult and very dangerous balancing act. The above report is no surprise, we all understand terrible damage is being done to the airline industry. On the other hand, if we do get hit by a second wave, the airline industry will be back lockdown again anyway, only now it will be the entire country again and therefore the government will have less resources to help support the airline industry.

We can see from the US the danger of opening up too quickly and in an unsafe manner. Numbers of cases are starting to creep up worryingly here again.

jimmycrackcorm

Nijmegen wrote: »

That would be all well and good if your personal responsibility didn't have a societal knock on effect. If you travel and get sick and bring the virus home, the following things can happen to others who had no say in your choice:
You can transmit the virus to others, who may not have the same rude health as you

You may require hospitalisation, and as well as taking up resources you will be putting a health worker at high risk of contracting the virus

If you're among a large enough cohort of people doing it, restrictions may need to be brought in that shuts the economy down

Only 2% of cases are attributed to foreign travel, 65% from community transmission. So you think we shouldfocus on the small number of travellers and totally ignore people on busses or shopping not wearing masks?

Tenger

Just in regard to Hong Kong closing schools, it’s not as big a deal as may seem. Very few schools still open there. My nephews went back to school about 6 weeks ago and finished 2 weeks ago.
The schools still open are secondary level ones. They were due to close in under 2 weeks anyway.

[Deleted User]

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Only 2% of cases are attributed to foreign travel, 65% from community transmission. So you think we shouldfocus on the small number of travellers and totally ignore people on busses or shopping not wearing masks?

Growing number from people attending house parties as well, yet Travel is everyone's big concern at the moment. Lets stop worrying about a second wave, lets focus on eradicating the first wave first.

Widdensushi

Deleted User wrote: »

Growing number from people attending house parties as well, yet Travel is everyone's big concern at the moment. Lets stop worrying about a second wave, lets focus on eradicating the first wave first.

????? What's the point in eradicating it with open borders, or how is it possible?

Limpy

Deleted User wrote: »

Growing number from people attending house parties as well, yet Travel is everyone's big concern at the moment. Lets stop worrying about a second wave, lets focus on eradicating the first wave first.

I'l say it again.

We Ireland are one with the UK, we cannot realistically eradicate covid19 unless the UK does so to as things currently stand.

Marcusm

Deleted User wrote: »

Growing number from people attending house parties as well, yet Travel is everyone's big concern at the moment. Lets stop worrying about a second wave, lets focus on eradicating the first wave first.

We cannot "eradicate" the first wave with the strategy which the government ahs pursued so far which is a "suppression" strategy. It works but is clearly undermined by human behaviour such as the recent family memorial where upwards of 20 people were infected. Whether people are abroad in low risk countries or at home they key is to continue distancing, washing hands and wearing masks. This is inconsistent with having house parties or reverting to normal behaviours. However, failing to open up businesses will lead to a poorer economy in future years which will lead to a reduction in life expectancy and increased morbidity without the resources to ameliorate it.

Nijmegen

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Only 2% of cases are attributed to foreign travel, 65% from community transmission. So you think we shouldfocus on the small number of travellers and totally ignore people on busses or shopping not wearing masks?

Whataboutery.

2% over the entire period including lockdown, but it’s a much bigger percentage of late.

And I’m fond of the idea that government can do more than one thing at a time. I believe the legal powers enforcing masks on public transport are about to come into effect for example.

But we could go round in circles on all of this, I imagine. I think the data is becoming clear that in the debate Chief Medical Officer vs Airline PR Department on Twitter, the CMO is unfortunately winning out.

Jack1985

Nijmegen wrote: »

But we could go round in circles on all of this, I imagine. I think the data is becoming clear that in the debate Chief Medical Officer vs Airline PR Department on Twitter, the CMO is unfortunately winning out.

Yeah with their watered-down versions of data and public debated opinion amongst them (has done wonders for example masks). Trying to cohort the NI Exec now with their public shamming. Embarrassing.

I'll say it again, give us the data and let public make their judgement.

[Deleted User]

You have missed my point.

Stop worrying about what’s coming next till you have sorted what is here right now. It’s a bit like worrying about the large forest fire next summer but not dealing with the multiple spot fires everywhere this summer. The numbers here need to be near or close to zero for weeks like New Zealand before we start worrying about what comes next.

You are all correct about the current approach, it’s all about people’s willingness to tow the line without having to use a hammer to do it. I don’t agree with that approach either, there should still be some hammer usage especially around the wishywashy approach to face coverings use, don’t use them etc etc. Pubs/restaurants should be observed first and then closed, don’t walk in and ask to see stuff in bright neon clothing because people will just modify behaviour quickly. Covertly observe, as they should be in compliance 100%. I’ve heard of kids of places bending the rules to take in the few extra euro.

Quarantine for arrivals is a joke, the amount of Foreign reg cars/motorhomes coming off ferries is laughable. We should be closed to visitors end of story. No non essential travel yet 10000 per day are using Dublin airport. Less than 3% of cases are from foreign travel however.

We do need to learn to live with the virus until a vaccine is found or it burns itself out and that means allowing travel again at some stage.

Certainly travel to/from the USA, Brazil etc should be banned for the foreseeable and that includes people travelling via another country to get here/there.

kona

Aviation is completely unviable from a passenger ops point of view until there is a vaccine from what i can see, there shouldnt even be a debate about opening up, the health of the country has to come first.

Widdensushi

kona wrote: »

Aviation is completely unviable from a passenger ops point of view until there is a vaccine from what i can see, there shouldnt even be a debate about opening up, the health of the country has to come first.

I know numerous people who are gone on foreign holidays at the moment, I don't blame them, I would consider it if I was in the position to go myself, there needs to be a clear position from the government which they are currently unwilling to give in case they have to pay money to the airlines

kevinandrew

kona wrote: »

Aviation is completely unviable from a passenger ops point of view until there is a vaccine from what i can see, there shouldnt even be a debate about opening up, the health of the country has to come first.

Unfortunately, from a public health point of view, this is likely the case. The phrase "live with the virus" gets thrown about far too often without much thought into what that actually means or what it should mean.

A more accurate phrase should be "safely live with the virus" but to do that you must do it responsibly. Everyone needs to be unified in their approach to social distancing, mask wearing and limiting their social interactions and reducing situations that may put them and others at risk. You also need an incredibly robust tracking system. Unfortunately very few countries have mastered this approach in its entirety and those that have (China, Hong Kong and Korea) prove there is still a risk of major outbreaks.

Some form of international travel can be viable in the very near future without risking another peak but the rush by some to salvage summer poses a real risk both to public health and any attempt economic recovery.

kona

Widdensushi wrote: »

I know numerous people who are gone on foreign holidays at the moment, I don't blame them, I would consider it if I was in the position to go myself, there needs to be a clear position from the government which they are currently unwilling to give in case they have to pay money to the airlines

Why do people need to listen to government on this, its pretty clear and obvious if you do some reading. If you dont fancy a dose of covid 19, do your best to stay away from other people!

Travelling and sitting inside a airplane for a few hours is the complete opposite .

Stay the **** at home.

Im saying this as somebody who is directly involved in aviation. You cannot put aviation before peoples health.

zuutroy

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I'm not sure. The NOTAMs always refer to hours of operation and don't mention hours of ATC's operation, like they do for the regionals. It was NOTAM'd to be closed until July 30th but that NOTAM is gone now so maybe it will reopen.

NFC had relocated their operations to Abbeyshrule for the month of July.

NOTAM'd closed to the end of the month again now. This has popped up a few times over the past month for 2-3 hours at a time. Most of them have related to NFC moving their machines out. I think their maintenance guys are still working at Weston, so maybe there's still the odd movement in and out to them.

Nijmegen

https://twitter.com/barrywhyte85/status/1281565887296950274?s=21

The Dallas AA route provoking a bit of flapping. Whatever about green lists within Europe, planes from the US - and Texas no less - when we’re not enforcing isolation on arrival... well, the results will be predictable.

fr336

kona wrote: »

Why do people need to listen to government on this, its pretty clear and obvious if you do some reading. If you dont fancy a dose of covid 19, do your best to stay away from other people!

Travelling and sitting inside a airplane for a few hours is the complete opposite .

Stay the **** at home.

Im saying this as somebody who is directly involved in aviation. You cannot put aviation before peoples health.

Poeple use "well the government says" as a get out clause for their own thinking. Even if they don't like the government in charge they'll use it.

billy few mates

Jack1985 wrote: »

The Aviation Taskforce is calling on Government to release data in relation to imported travel related cases for full transparcency for the Public in relation to travel - They are also seeking full transparency by Government on the metrics and data being used to decide the constitution of the “Green List” and its periodic update as so proposed.

It's final document has been sent to Eamon Ryan and Hildegarde Naughton in the last hour, warning 140,000 highly-paid jobs are at risk and 8.7bn in GDP contributions to the Irish economy. Aviation lessors based in Ireland who account for 60% of global aircraft leasing are also signaling an alarm.

The aviation taskforce..?
What's that..?

donkey balls

My other half was telling me that a girl in her job has 2 weeks booked for TFE, This would have more than likely paid for either late last year or early this year.
The total cost of the family holiday is 4k she is now stuck between a rock and a hard place, If she chooses to stay at home the airline and hotel refuse to refund the monies or let her make another booking.
If she goes on the holiday at present she be required to self isolate for 2 weeks, Which she can do as she works from home at present.
The government are sitting on the fence here compared to a few months ago,When they more or less gave the nood for airlines to let people rebook and not give cash refunds.

EchoIndia

fr336 wrote: »

Poeple use "well the government says" as a get out clause for their own thinking. Even if they don't like the government in charge they'll use it.

Which people? On these issues the advice of the Government should not be (and generally is not) just a political message. It is given after considering, amongst other factors, the advice of public health experts. A person's political persuasion is hardly relevant.

fr336

EchoIndia wrote: »

Which people? On these issues the advice of the Government should not be (and generally is not) just a political message. It is given after considering, amongst other factors, the advice of public health experts. A person's political persuasion is hardly relevant.

I'm saying that the government opening certain things up isn't an invitation to suddenly go back to normal like nothing has changed. The government don't flick a switch saying "Ah yes Corona is now switched off", but that's how many people seem to take it.

Tenger

Deleted User wrote: »

..........
...............
..............
Quarantine for arrivals is a joke, the amount of Foreign reg cars/motorhomes coming off ferries is laughable. We should be closed to visitors end of story. No non essential travel yet 10000 per day are using Dublin airport. Less than 3% of cases are from foreign travel however.
...............

Closer to 1000 a day than 10,000 I would guess.

DAA admitted that there were 936 on what is normally the busiest Friday in June.
With the increase in flights over the last 7-10 days Im sure this number is maybe double that.

As for quarantine, I’m in favour of using those airport hotels for actual quarantine for all arrivals from nations with worse numbers than us (specifically the US). Allow ppl in but make clear that it’s quarantine rather than “self isolation”. It worked in Taiwan, China and Australia.
Granted this isn’t foolproof either, (a person coming from NZ could pick it up along the way ) but it’s a better system than just signing a piece of paper in the baggage hall.

notuslimited

I went to Frankfurt on Monday and came back Friday. Travelled with Lufty. It was an essential journey. Both flights were 2/3rds full as LH are keeping the middle seats free. Masks were compulsory from entering the airport in Dublin till I got out of the underground station in Central Frankfurt and the same on the way back. Masks are also compulsory when using shops in Frankfurt. On the return flight I was handed a COVID Locator Form by the cabin crew which never mentions the word quarantine and all it asks is for me to record where I am staying for the next 14 nights. For me that’s home where I am working from and my family and I have a good routine in keeping our distance... I am staying in the attic. The fact that the form does not mention the requirement to quarantine is troubling. As regards flights coming in from the States or anywhere else for that matter, if anybody arriving here has a stay of less than 14 days I think the Guards should have the power to Immediately put those pax on the returning flight from where they came. I just can’t see that people arriving here for a holiday are going to stay in the same place for the duration of their stay. We are kidding ourselves if we believe that is happening. We have a family holiday to FAO booked for 1 Aug and we won’t be going. The lack of a clear direction from the Govt on non essential travel is appalling and I will doubt be out of pocket arising from the cancellation which I will be making next week.

[Deleted User]

Quarantine is advised, not enforced Read the legislation on gov.ie
"are expected to self-isolate" does not equal "must"
There is no danger that visitors will be put on the next plane out of the Country.

Obligatory use of masks in public spaces is the tool to allow a return to normality while combating the spread of the virus.
Their use in Germany is enforced in many situations. In Ireland it appears to be completely voluntary as it isn't in legislation.

MickeyLeari

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Quarantine is advised, not enforced Read the legislation on gov.ie
"are expected to self-isolate" does not equal "must"
There is no danger that visitors will be put on the next plane out of the Country.

Obligatory use of masks in public spaces is the tool to allow a return to normality while combating the spread of the virus.
Their use in Germany is enforced in many situations. In Ireland it appears to be completely voluntary as it isn't in legislation.

In fact the advice is to restrict movement. We have a stupid policy which has a light Touch regime based on guilt to stop Irish people travelling to relatively safe countries yet opens up the country to visitors from the riskiest countries.

opinionated3

I'm actually more worried about pushing the whole staycation line. Kilkee and lahinch were full this weekend of dubs who landed down to their mobile homes or in their camper vans. Didn't give two hoots about social distancing and took the piss out of the 105 min rule in the pub's. If we don't care about those guidelines, why should a few tourists feel compelled to do the same?

California Dreamer

Nijmegen wrote: »

https://twitter.com/barrywhyte85/status/1281565887296950274?s=21

The Dallas AA route provoking a bit of flapping. Whatever about green lists within Europe, planes from the US - and Texas no less - when we’re not enforcing isolation on arrival... well, the results will be predictable.

Just for a bit of context. Wednesdays AA flight from DFW has 13 econ, 6 prem econ, and 10 business pax on it according to seat expert.

Nijmegen

California Dreamer wrote: »

Just for a bit of context. Wednesdays AA flight from DFW has 13 econ, 6 prem econ, and 10 business pax on it according to seat expert.

Yeah I think folks here are well aware of the low loads. But we also know that covid is very prone to super spreader events. What are these folks coming here for is the question. If it’s all people returning home and they’re self isolating, fine. If the 10 biz pax are heading off to the 5 star golf resorts rather than to offices for super aware social distanced meetings or work (and how many businesses are making people travel right now?) there’s danger there.

California Dreamer

Nijmegen wrote: »

Yeah I think folks here are well aware of the low loads.

Ah here, people are stupid and are just going with tabloid headlines to base all their decisions. Go up to any person travelling and ask them 'do you know what aircraft loads are' and they won't have a clue. But once its in The Star they are all experts calling for blood! :eek: