nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

d51984

The current Coronavirus epidemic seems to be getting worse by the day, just wondering what complications if any may happen in the not to distant future.

Can we start taking peoples temperatures on arrival in to the country? Open up isolation centers in major cities? Will Aer Lingus and Ryanair start suspending flights, mainly to Italy so far?

This thing is going to get worse,and now its not a question of weather it arrives in Ireland but a matter of how long until it arrives.

Thoughts?

Find more posts tagged with

aviation

epidemic

coronavirus

Quick Links

Comments

LXFlyer

Limpy wrote: »

My personal responsibility is the same overseas as when i get a bus to work in Ireland or have lunch in the staff canteen. The virus is here to stay. Learn to live with it. Its your choice, but don't try guilt trip anyone who travels.

I don't think that poster is "guilt tripping" anyone who travels - we are perfectly free to do so, even though it's not recommended right now.

And we all do indeed have to live with the virus.

But what the new normal does involve is all of us taking responsibility for our actions.

That extends to observing quarantine periods if the State introduces them, even if you take an indirect route from a country on a quarantine list to Ireland.

Otherwise, frankly, you are showing two fingers to the rest of us.

Nijmegen

dfx- wrote: »

why is the country hyperventilating about 23 cases and other single digit cases days? We had a 'spike' in cases that was in total 8 earlier in the week. These sorts of numbers have been the same for a month or more, it's not a huge increase.

Is 23 cases unmanageable?

It's about the transmission. Hong Kong announced today they're shutting all schools again because they have reached 30-40 cases per day. The reason they're doing this is because the virus transmission expands exponentially if it is transmitting in the community and we're all out and about. https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0710/1152444-world-covid19-coronavirus/

Their R number has climbed significantly in recent days https://covid19.sph.hku.hk/

Their mean estimate is 2.5 or so, up from a low of 0.15 on June 7. It was back above 1 by June 22 and has been stubbornly above 2 for about a week now.

Yesterday at the health briefing, we were told that ours has climbed now to at or above an R of 1. If that continues to climb in the coming days and stays high, ala Hong Kong, that's why you'll get further restrictions.

The neat thing about Covid is that we have always been a few weeks to a few months behind other parts of the world to get fairly predictable models of what's going to happen. Right down to the panic buying the day of the first restrictions / closing schools, which had happened in a bunch of places beforehand.

Limpy wrote: »

My personal responsibility is the same overseas as when i get a bus to work in Ireland or have lunch in the staff canteen. The virus is here to stay. Learn to live with it. Its your choice, but don't try guilt trip anyone who travels.

That would be all well and good if your personal responsibility didn't have a societal knock on effect. If you travel and get sick and bring the virus home, the following things can happen to others who had no say in your choice:

You can transmit the virus to others, who may not have the same rude health as you
You may require hospitalisation, and as well as taking up resources you will be putting a health worker at high risk of contracting the virus
If you're among a large enough cohort of people doing it, restrictions may need to be brought in that shuts the economy down

Public health officials are begging people not to travel. Cases imported from travel are increasing and so is the reproductive number of the virus.

As to us vs Aus and NZ and the UK link, perfectly clear we have a problem if they're taking different steps and we're not prepared to control the border.

It feels as though government is afraid to take proactive steps - like banning vs advising against certain types of travel or enforcing isolation on arrival - because they don't want to get caught with the cost of it. I wonder what the cost of a second lockdown would be.

Meanwhile, in news that will delight Ryanair given they are unlikely to need state support: https://www.thejournal.ie/eamon-ryan-airlines-5145708-Jul2020/

Limpy

EchoIndia wrote: »

NI quarantine policy doesn't apply to the Republic. You would still be regarded as a person who has entered Ireland from overseas, even if you have chosen a circuitous route. Where does personal responsibility come in??

My personal responsibility is the same overseas as when i get a bus to work in Ireland or have lunch in the staff canteen. The virus is here to stay. Learn to live with it. Its your choice, but don't try guilt trip anyone who travels.

smurfjed

@gaoth laidir, Doesn’t it just become an uncontrolled airport if ATC aren’t operating?

EchoIndia

Limpy wrote: »

Thank **** the lads in the North have some sense. I'm gonna fly back to Belfast or via London to Ireland. Ireland's quarantine policy will be dictated by Boris and Arlene lol

NI quarantine policy doesn't apply to the Republic. You would still be regarded as a person who has entered Ireland from overseas, even if you have chosen a circuitous route. Where does personal responsibility come in??

LXFlyer

goingnowhere wrote: »

Basically allow only EEA less Portugal, UK, Sweden.

As I have already pointed out that is impossible, given that we have an open border with Northern Ireland which cannot be closed, and Northern Ireland has free movement with Great Britain, which again will not change.

We have to live with the political and geographic realities of our situation, which do mean that restricting movement from GB isn't realistic I'm afraid, as there is an open back door via Northern Ireland.

Limpy

goingnowhere wrote: »

We had several days of 20-25 last week. This is the new normal, thats 7 per 100,000/2 weeks and that not half bad.

The simplest solution to this entire mess is ban travel from a list of countries if you have spent even 1 minute there in the last 14 days. This is not an uncommon protocol. Stop people getting on planes in the first place. Looking at the list from last week where travel cases came from it read as a list of hot spot countries...

It is madness we have NO restrictions, anyone from anywhere can fly here. Why are we unwilling to take appropriate steps to protect ourselves. Had we set down some rules we would have prevented a significant number of recent cases

Basically allow only EEA less Portugal, UK, Sweden. New Zealand would be fine for example but they have no direct flights so unless they transit a safe EU country, sorry...

Sorry to tell you but the North is part of the United Kingdom. There will never be a physical border between the North and South, remember Brexit negotiations. When Leo was playing a blinder about no border's.

Limpy

Thank **** the lads in the North have some sense. I'm gonna fly back to Belfast or via London to Ireland. Ireland's quarantine policy will be dictated by Boris and Arlene lol

Gaoth Laidir

On a local note, I was surprised to see a light aircraft taking off from Weston this morning, given that the last time I read the notams the airport was down as closed until July 30th. The latest notams don't mention that, however, but do state that there is no ATC from 07:15 to 15:00Z today. The plane took off at around 07:45Z.

So is Weston back open now?

Latest notam.

goingnowhere

We had several days of 20-25 last week. This is the new normal, thats 7 per 100,000/2 weeks and that not half bad.

The simplest solution to this entire mess is ban travel from a list of countries if you have spent even 1 minute there in the last 14 days. This is not an uncommon protocol. Stop people getting on planes in the first place. Looking at the list from last week where travel cases came from it read as a list of hot spot countries...

It is madness we have NO restrictions, anyone from anywhere can fly here. Why are we unwilling to take appropriate steps to protect ourselves. Had we set down some rules we would have prevented a significant number of recent cases

Basically allow only EEA less Portugal, UK, Sweden. New Zealand would be fine for example but they have no direct flights so unless they transit a safe EU country, sorry...

EchoIndia

dfx- wrote: »

why is the country hyperventilating about 23 cases and other single digit cases days? We had a 'spike' in cases that was in total 8 earlier in the week. These sorts of numbers have been the same for a month or more, it's not a huge increase.

Is 23 cases unmanageable?

No, but the question is whether it can be kept at that level as society continues to open up and people travel more domestically and internationally.

HTCOne

Nijmegen wrote: »

This was posted a few pages back. New Zealand is doing precisely that - it is limiting the number of its own citizens who can return to the country per day.

It’s been pointed out several times in this thread that we can’t be compared to New Zealand because they don’t have an open land border with one of the worst affected countries in the world.

We’re going round in circles here folks.....

dfx-

Nijmegen wrote: »

This probably isn’t going to help aviation if it keeps happening. 15 of 23 cases notified today associated with overseas travel and the R rate is at or above 1.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1281278965026619392?s=21

why is the country hyperventilating about 23 cases and other single digit cases days? We had a 'spike' in cases that was in total 8 earlier in the week. These sorts of numbers have been the same for a month or more, it's not a huge increase.

Is 23 cases unmanageable?

LXFlyer

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Yeah but I doubt we would do that - not saying we should/shouldn’t but doubt the govt. would have the balls

Given that we have an open land border with Northern Ireland which no government could attempt to close, and NI has freedom of movement with GB, it’s not a question of whether the government has the “balls”, that kind of restriction would be impossible to deliver.

The political and geographical relationship with NI means that we don’t have the kind of abilities that New Zealand has.

Van.Bosch

Nijmegen wrote: »

This was posted a few pages back. New Zealand is doing precisely that - it is limiting the number of its own citizens who can return to the country per day.

Yeah but I doubt we would do that - not saying we should/shouldn’t but doubt the govt. would have the balls

Cookiemunster

MickeyLeari wrote: »

That is my understanding but I think we are facing another lock down. That will atop people taking holidays.

We're not. There won't be another national lockdown. They may well be localised ones like in Leicester or Melbourne, but there won't be another national one.

And nobody who went on holidays from July 1st will be back yet, never mind having shown symptoms and been tested.

Nijmegen

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Spot on - those 15 could be Irish citizens coming home. It still is travel bringing the virus in but are we ever going to stop Irish citizens coming home? No, so give the context, if it’s 15 lads who went to Amsterdam on the lash - give the context. “Travel” Is too broad.

This was posted a few pages back. New Zealand is doing precisely that - it is limiting the number of its own citizens who can return to the country per day.

MickeyLeari

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Its 15 travel related cases, from watching the press conferences these also covers those who were close contacts of people who traveled in. If I travel into Ireland and have it and a close contact tests postive its noted as travel related as I brought it in.

Its a vague term but from what was said thats my understanding

That is my understanding but I think we are facing another lock down. That will atop people taking holidays.

stephenjmcd

Nijmegen wrote: »

And they have been good at releasing the supplementary data around clusters etc over a period of days.

My understanding is that if you came back and infected your family, your case would be associated with travel but the family as close contacts. If you infected your town and it wasn’t contact traced to you, it’s community infection.

So my understanding is that 15 cases related to travel means 15 people who they believe didn’t catch the virus in Ireland, they travelled in with it.

And another datapoint... most counties now have new cases after a long run without any for many.

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1281284398931939328?s=21

Its 15 travel related cases, from watching the press conferences these also covers those who were close contacts of people who traveled in. If I travel into Ireland and have it and a close contact tests postive its noted as travel related as I brought it in.

Its a vague term but from what was said thats my understanding

Van.Bosch

Jack1985 wrote: »

Context has been missing with regard to travel throughout - Nobody can dispute data, show it to us instead of making generalised comments.

Spot on - those 15 could be Irish citizens coming home. It still is travel bringing the virus in but are we ever going to stop Irish citizens coming home? No, so give the context, if it’s 15 lads who went to Amsterdam on the lash - give the context. “Travel” Is too broad.

Nijmegen

Limpy wrote: »

One Iraqi infected his whole family, that figure could be one traveller infecting his family the same way. We need the proper stats to offer better context.

And they have been good at releasing the supplementary data around clusters etc over a period of days.

My understanding is that if you came back and infected your family, your case would be associated with travel but the family as close contacts. If you infected your town and it wasn’t contact traced to you, it’s community infection.

So my understanding is that 15 cases related to travel means 15 people who they believe didn’t catch the virus in Ireland, they travelled in with it.

And another datapoint... most counties now have new cases after a long run without any for many.

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1281284398931939328?s=21

Jack1985

Context has been missing with regard to travel throughout - Nobody can dispute data, show it to us instead of making generalised comments.

Plus the news coming out of Greece not looking good. Over 100 cases there related to travel since they opened up. They have closed travel from the Balkan countries again and have delayed the reopening of travel with the UK for at least another two weeks.

Limpy

Nijmegen wrote: »

This probably isn’t going to help aviation if it keeps happening. 15 of 23 cases notified today associated with overseas travel and the R rate is at or above 1.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1281278965026619392?s=21

One Iraqi infected his whole family, that figure could be one traveller infecting his family the same way. We need the proper stats to offer better context.

Nijmegen

Jack1985 wrote: »

Where's the specification of what type of travel, from what country etc - We need data to work with before making generalised comments.

I’d say the public health officials who’ve been banging on about not travelling will be providing all that sort of data along with their recommendations in a few days time, I’m no more privy to the information than what I’m reading from the press conferences.

But to say that this is not a negative portent for what’s to come on 20 July I think might be wishful.

MickeyLeari

HTCOne wrote: »

As in are we letting Americans in? If that’s what you mean then the answer is no, I believe there’s been an EU wide ban on the entry of Americans who do not hold EU citizenship or a residency / work permit for a few months now.

The point I was making was that if we are to join the EU green lane are we required to stop US passengers?

Jack1985

Nijmegen wrote: »

This probably isn’t going to help aviation if it keeps happening. 15 of 23 cases notified today associated with overseas travel and the R rate is at or above 1.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1281278965026619392?s=21

Where's the specification of what type of travel, from what country etc - We need data to work with before making generalised comments.

Nijmegen

This probably isn’t going to help aviation if it keeps happening. 15 of 23 cases notified today associated with overseas travel and the R rate is at or above 1.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1281278965026619392?s=21

Jack1985

stephenjmcd wrote: »

NI removing quarantine for low and medium risk countries, list to be announced. Makes our approach pretty redundant now, more pressure to come on government one would assume

The DUP and the Shinners with the lead (which will see quarantine in Ireland circumvented through BFS/BHD), embarrassing :rolleyes:

stephenjmcd

NI removing quarantine for low and medium risk countries, list to be announced. Makes our approach pretty redundant now, more pressure to come on government one would assume