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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Best of luck. Are you in the Dublin market?
Might be prudent to keep an eye on:
Vaccine progress
New Gov plan and delivery mechanisms on homes if any
Stimulus plan
WFH evolution and effects on market
The propertypin discussion board, called the last crash, identified the oversupply long before it was in general media here and called the bottom of the market in Dublin and Galway markets the first to bottom

Propertypin - i've only looked at it for some of the drops in rental prices when people post links. You're saying there are discussion boards similar to here? Are they named analysts/experts? Or random punters on the internet like here? If they are random punters are you honestly saying someone should take advice on purchasing a property from a randomer on the internet?

Ush1

Brianmwalker wrote: »

If people are holding off then prices must fall or there's no sales.

Asking prices may drop but once bidding begins the prices will quickly be back up, often beyond asking prices, at the moment anyway.

It's a question of affordability.

awec

Brianmwalker wrote: »

If people are holding off then prices must fall or there's no sales.

Yes but his point is when those who wait actually go to buy prices will instantly shoot up again.

Price drops can only be sustained when people cannot buy for a sustained period of time. You need the pool of potential buyers to drop.

ShedTower

I think many forget that there was an argument long before Covid strunk that we were approaching a downturn.

Globally, interest rates continue to go lower and lower. A couple of months before the virus we had a Danish bank offering negative interest mortgage. Paying you to take a mortgage! Others offering 0% mortgages. Strange times. What will money be worth in 5 years, 10 years? There were arguments that we were witnessing the collapse of the financial system. It may not be that extreme just yet but what way was/is it going?

At home we have Brexit to deal with shortly.

Now it's all about the virus. And if the virus goes we'll be fine. There are other issues!

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

I think that scenario is far more likely to happen at the top of the market than the bottom. Affordability issues will force you to compromise on too many aspects of the property that are important to you as well as location

Same compromises can have to be made at the bottom. Your insinuation here is that the bottom of the market means you have your pick of houses, in your pick of location, at a nice low price.

Brianmwalker

Ush1 wrote: »

As others have said, I can't see price drops coming yet as so many people are holding out for price drops. If that's the case, significant price drops won't happen.

If people are holding off then prices must fall or there's no sales.

Villa05

GreeBo wrote:

You could buy at the bottom of the market and it would still be a bad purchase, especially if its not somewhere you happy to live long term.

I think that scenario is far more likely to happen at the top of the market than the bottom. Affordability issues will force you to compromise on too many aspects of the property that are important to you as well as location

Ush1

As others have said, I can't see price drops coming yet as so many people are holding out for price drops. If that's the case, significant price drops won't happen.

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

If I see drops of 10% thats my trigger point. Im buying then, if there is any supply. Too long have I waited Time to get off the fence

Best of luck. Are you in the Dublin market?
Might be prudent to keep an eye on:
Vaccine progress
New Gov plan and delivery mechanisms on homes if any
Stimulus plan
WFH evolution and effects on market
The propertypin discussion board, called the last crash, identified the oversupply long before it was in general media here and called the bottom of the market in Dublin and Galway markets the first to bottom

PHG

neutral guy wrote: »

I bought overpriced property in 2007 which worth today half of what I paid.
I did that because I believed to all PA songs.
Since crash happened I see many people around in a lot worse situation,they believed PA and different sort of experts too.
I started counting,watching what people get and how much they lose.
Since I found that all statistics are lie I stoped believe anybody and started wait for my day.
The longer I am waiting the more value I see for my money.
Yes,I am losing my money for rent but I will get them back when I will buy house for cheaper price.
I expecting price fall about 30 procents compare with this year,the second hand property will fall 50 ! Same as 2009
And remember guys we still did not recover from 2008 recession and Dublin property market far way is not face of the rest of the country
In my town about third of shops are still closed from last recession and some caffe and shops started closing before Covid !
All top oficials of the world says that will be crash which nobody did not see before !
Nobody still does not know how to fix the economy !
Do you know what is economy drop of 10 per cent per year !? That mean government will have serious dificulties pay wages to workers and pensions !

Seat the belts guys and prepare for emercency landing.

Struggling to believe the first line that it is still worth half. Unless you bught in the absolute back of beyond and put a JCB through it since.

What are the different sort of expets you are referring to?

Agree some towns have not come back to full but shops open and close all the time no matter how good or bad an economy is.

How do you own a property and renting too?

You think all statistics are a lie yet give your own estimates of what the drop may be.... Maybe just sit it out for a while.

I was looking to buy year but now sitting it out to see the shape of what could be the a reflection of the real economy in another 6 - 12 months, which as most expect house prices to go down but nobody will ever call the bottom. That said I can see the arguement for them to stay the same though i hope not.

Agree that some experts have vested interests but the independent ones are ok (though all can only rely on past data) , I read the Davy Outlook by their Chief Economist who said no change.. but I wonder how much of their portfolio is in property now and will be in 12 months time!!

GreeBo

neutral guy wrote: »

I bought overpriced property in 2007 which worth today half of what I paid.
I did that because I believed to all PA songs.
Since crash happened I see many people around in a lot worse situation,they believed PA and different sort of experts too.
I started counting,watching what people get and how much they lose.
Since I found that all statistics are lie I stoped believe anybody and started wait for my day.
The longer I am waiting the more value I see for my money.
Yes,I am losing my money for rent but I will get them back when I will buy house for cheaper price.
I expecting price fall about 30 procents compare with this year,the second hand property will fall 50 ! Same as 2009
And remember guys we still did not recover from 2008 recession and Dublin property market far way is not face of the rest of the country
In my town about third of shops are still closed from last recession and some caffe and shops started closing before Covid !
All top oficials of the world says that will be crash which nobody did not see before !
Nobody still does not know how to fix the economy !
Do you know what is economy drop of 10 per cent per year !? That mean government will have serious dificulties pay wages to workers and pensions !

Seat the belts guys and prepare for emercency landing.

Sorry to be so frank, but you mad a bad purchase. That doesnt mean that everyone else who bought at that time also made a bad purchase though. You could buy at the bottom of the market and it would still be a bad purchase, especially if its not somewhere you happy to live long term.

[Deleted User]

JimmyVik wrote: »

If I see drops of 10% thats my trigger point.
Im buying then, if there is any supply. Too long have I waited Time to get off the fence

Would you not make some offers 10% lower then PPR info for similar properties?

[Deleted User]

1sttimebuyer20 wrote: »

.............. I’m buying a home for life with the mortgage being about 15% of my net take home so although I could well lose out on a better deal next year, I simply don’t fancy hanging around any longer.

I’m sure plenty of other buyers in similar positions but I’m also aware that some people are lining up financial difficulty for themselves

I doubt plenty buyers are in that position tbh

€4000 net wage/month and €600 mortgage payment......
€2000 net wage/month and €300 mortgage payment......

JimmyVik

1sttimebuyer20 wrote: »

It is indeed, but I won’t be selling. My point was that I don’t feel there will be much of a drop of new builds to make me hold off another year.

I think people are thinking this will be way worse than it actually will be, again, I’m not expecting no dip, that 100% is coming.

If I see drops of 10% thats my trigger point.
Im buying then, if there is any supply. Too long have I waited

Time to get off the fence

1sttimebuyer20

fliball123 wrote: »

The only thing I will say about your logic is once you buy its no longer a new build its a 2nd hand home

It is indeed, but I won’t be selling. My point was that I don’t feel there will be much of a drop of new builds to make me hold off another year.

I think people are thinking this will be way worse than it actually will be, again, I’m not expecting no dip, that 100% is coming.

Billythekid19

awec wrote: »

This is the same daft report that was discussed all day yesterday.

If you were off offered a house for a 10% reduction a year ago you'd have bitten the arm off someone for it. The conundrum now is does a buyer wait a year, be greedy and wait for a further 10% drop or take the plunge now and gamble there wont be further substantial drops in the future. My guess is your typical buyer will wait and see.
Buying a house is essentially like going to the bookies, the outcome is really a big gamble.

riclad

The economy will go into recession, many small shops might not survive the covid crisis. people in America are moving away from city's.
If you can work from home all you need is an Internet connection. It's always cheaper to buy a large house outside city's . Will this trend happen in Ireland. If so it will effect house prices.
Big company's are realising its possible for most people to work from home as long as they have Internet access.
Some company's have cancelled signing long term leases on new offices since they might not
need that space in the future

smurgen

We're coming into uncharted territory soon. When the furlough payments start winding down and everything is "reopened" nothing Covid wise will have changed. There's no vaccine in sight and Spanish antibody tests in the Lancet are indicating 3-5% antibodies present. This can flare up and lead to regional shut downs over and over until we've the vaccine.
This is going to have a prolonged effect on all aspects of the economy eventually.it just hasn't hit the economic data yet as there will be some time before it leaks from one industry into another. The government cannot pay for everything.The U.K approach to this is also a massive risk to us.

neutral guy

I bought overpriced property in 2007 which worth today half of what I paid.
I did that because I believed to all PA songs.
Since crash happened I see many people around in a lot worse situation,they believed PA and different sort of experts too.
I started counting,watching what people get and how much they lose.
Since I found that all statistics are lie I stoped believe anybody and started wait for my day.
The longer I am waiting the more value I see for my money.
Yes,I am losing my money for rent but I will get them back when I will buy house for cheaper price.
I expecting price fall about 30 procents compare with this year,the second hand property will fall 50 ! Same as 2009
And remember guys we still did not recover from 2008 recession and Dublin property market far way is not face of the rest of the country
In my town about third of shops are still closed from last recession and some caffe and shops started closing before Covid !
All top oficials of the world says that will be crash which nobody did not see before !
Nobody still does not know how to fix the economy !
Do you know what is economy drop of 10 per cent per year !? That mean government will have serious dificulties pay wages to workers and pensions !

Seat the belts guys and prepare for emercency landing.

fliball123

1sttimebuyer20 wrote: »

Have noticed how one sided many seem to be. I’m personally expecting a drop (particularly on 2nd hand homes) but I’m pulling the trigger anyway. I don’t see new builds taking a massive dip, I’ve been saving hard for over 18 months so I don’t see the hit been more than my deposit. I’m buying a home for life with the mortgage being about 15% of my net take home so although I could well lose out on a better deal next year, I simply don’t fancy hanging around any longer.

I’m sure plenty of other buyers in similar positions but I’m also aware that some people are lining up financial difficulty for themselves

The only thing I will say about your logic is once you buy its no longer a new build its a 2nd hand home

AlmightyCushion

lastusername wrote: »

In a recession people cut back on non-essentials but they still need a place to live. There is a huge shortage of places to live for those who want to buy, and people will still have the funds to buy as many are largely unaffected by what's happening. Prices won't need to drop if competition is still high.

People still need somewhere to live but they can cut back and make compromises on the places they live. Move to less desirable areas or smaller, less desirable properties. They move home. They share instead of live by themselves.

1sttimebuyer20

Iceman29 wrote: »

I find it so funny that the deniers literally try to play down every single notion of a whopper recession and house prices dropping by a good chunk.

Will be interesting to see the more this goes on how they will continue to deny it or at least play it down.

Have noticed how one sided many seem to be. I’m personally expecting a drop (particularly on 2nd hand homes) but I’m pulling the trigger anyway. I don’t see new builds taking a massive dip, I’ve been saving hard for over 18 months so I don’t see the hit been more than my deposit. I’m buying a home for life with the mortgage being about 15% of my net take home so although I could well lose out on a better deal next year, I simply don’t fancy hanging around any longer.

I’m sure plenty of other buyers in similar positions but I’m also aware that some people are lining up financial difficulty for themselves

lastusername

Iceman29 wrote: »

I find it so funny that the deniers literally try to play down every single notion of a whopper recession and house prices dropping by a good chunk.

Will be interesting to see the more this goes on how they will continue to deny it or at least play it down.

In a recession people cut back on non-essentials but they still need a place to live. There is a huge shortage of places to live for those who want to buy, and people will still have the funds to buy as many are largely unaffected by what's happening. Prices won't need to drop if competition is still high.

Taylor365

Iceman29 wrote: »

I find it so funny that the deniers literally try to play down every single notion of a whopper recession and house prices dropping by a good chunk.

Will be interesting to see the more this goes on how they will continue to deny it or at least play it down.

HA
I wish prices dropped to 2011-2012 levels but i just don't see it.

We still have the homeless, the free house brigade and plenty of buyers waiting, as they've spent the last decade saving! :pac:

[Deleted User]

Hubertj wrote: »

Have mortgage breaks always been available or was the measure just introduced due to the current sh*tshow? Never heard of it before.

Around for years. I took one when I was selling my last house.

awec

Hubertj wrote: »

Have mortgage breaks always been available or was the measure just introduced due to the current sh*tshow? Never heard of it before.

They've been around for years.

Some banks offer them to customers at the very start of the mortgage, where you can drawn down but not start repayments until 6 months later. People take it so they can use the money for furniture instead etc.

[Deleted User]

Hubertj wrote: »

Have mortgage breaks always been available or was the measure just introduced due to the current sh*tshow? Never heard of it before.

Yeah I think there's even a few different types of breaks, you can have a full moratorium or interest-only payments for a period (I think). I've definitely heard of them in the case of temporary maternity leave etc. where the borrower knows things are going to be tight in the short-term.

The Belly

Hubertj wrote: »

Have mortgage breaks always been available or was the measure just introduced due to the current sh*tshow? Never heard of it before.

They have been around since at least 2004 BOI were offering them for no reason at all. A couple of months if i remember. Also used to pre approve loans and overdrafts too for no reason either. The good oul days.

Hubertj

Have mortgage breaks always been available or was the measure just introduced due to the current sh*tshow? Never heard of it before.

The Belly

Iceman29 wrote: »

I find it so funny that the deniers literally try to play down every single notion of a whopper recession and house prices dropping by a good chunk.

Will be interesting to see the more this goes on how they will continue to deny it or at least play it down.

A soft landing maybe:)