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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

d51984

The current Coronavirus epidemic seems to be getting worse by the day, just wondering what complications if any may happen in the not to distant future.

Can we start taking peoples temperatures on arrival in to the country? Open up isolation centers in major cities? Will Aer Lingus and Ryanair start suspending flights, mainly to Italy so far?

This thing is going to get worse,and now its not a question of weather it arrives in Ireland but a matter of how long until it arrives.

Thoughts?

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Nijmegen

Noxegon wrote: »

I think there are also some people that take the view that if you can't beat them, join them. I've been ridiculously careful over the last few months – and continue to be – yet when I see footage of the carry-on in central Dublin over the weekend it makes me wonder why I'm bothering.

Just a thought.

The more people who become potential vectors for the virus by taking that approach, the faster it can spread, the more likely it will overwhelm the systems we have in place to contain it. Just as 1 person can spread the virus to 2 and it suddenly explodes exponentially, if 1 person being selfish and travelling against the advice convinces 2 others to do the same...

The argument of "but other people are doing it, why shouldn't I" is pretty easily explained when you look at how viruses spread. Each potential vector is statistically significant.

And to be perfectly honest, what are we being asked to do? Not go on holiday abroad. At a macro level the risk:reward ratio of following the advice is extraordinary. But here we are and all of a sudden the yellow pack epidemiologists are pulp psychiatrists talking about the severe health effects of not being able to get down to the costa del sol. Yeah, my granny never left the country and lived well into her 90s after ten kids raised in a terraced 3-bed. The rain soaked holidays to Wexford didn't kill her, they won't kill you.

Noxegon

I don't disagree with anything you're saying.

What I am saying is that "if others are not doing it, then why should I" is a real thing.

The government's fence-sitting on this is reprehensible IMHO. "Don't fly, but if you choose not to the financial hit is on you" is a poor way to convince the chattering classes.

Nijmegen

Noxegon wrote: »

I don't disagree with anything you're saying.

What I am saying is that "if others are not doing it, then why should I" is a real thing.

The government's fence-sitting on this is reprehensible IMHO. "Don't fly, but if you choose not to the financial hit is on you" is a poor way to convince the chattering classes.

I reckon if they put in a firm ban, they'll get stung for the full cost of it - insurers, airlines, punters, will be looking for all their money back off Johnny Taxpayer. Just to think about how it would work here. They're trying to discourage without getting caught on the hook (bar, of course, paying everyone's wages).

dfx-

Nationwide lockdowns (sledgehammers to crack nuts) are not the long term solution to the virus. If anything Galicia, Leicester, Melbourne and the German one recently show the way forward. Nobody closed down countries.

The initial lockdown was needed to help the health service prepare, no health service could have been ready. But four months on, lack of PPE and lack of preparedness or staff or infrastructure is no longer a valid reason.

Detecting and tracking localised lockdowns are the way forward and this non-decision is worthless. The current situation is as good as you're going to get until you open up. Localised lockdowns operate with borders open.

donkey balls

I know a good few people that have holidays booked and paid for, The majority are waiting to see this green list of countries that they can travel too.
A lot of them like myself had holidays paid for earlier during the lockdown, We managed to rebook fir next year.
The issue I'm hearing now is that they are willing to stay at home this year but the likes of FR will not let them rebook for another time,And that they will loose out on the cost of the flights which for a family is a considerable amount of money.
As for the initial outbreK of the virus here and the HSE/HBS response was to plan for the worse, And believe me they did snr mgmt in my company had meetings with the HSE &DOD.
I'm a volunteer for one of the statuary emergency services and we have been stood down from active on call from this week, We went on call from March some of the temporary installations we set up have been taking down.
As for the pubs in Dublin City over the weekend what would you expect, Juat like videos and pics of Temple bar before the pubs closed.
The pubs I was in over the weekend had you wait at the main entrance before being brought to your seat, It was well run.
Maybe by next week we should see if their is a spike in cases with pubs/restaurants opened after two weeks.

stephenjmcd

More cuts at Shannon
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0707/1151820-shannon-airport/

dfx-

It's also not about people chasing sun holidays or people 'taking a chance'.

If anything, a phased introduction of low volume countries - compared to the UK and US - tests the preparedness and practice.

Unless they're not letting any non essential travel in and then suddenly letting it all in. Which would be chaotic.

SimonTemplar

The current situation in a lot of European countries, including Ireland, is a negligible amount of community transmission with some localised clusters.

2020 is being promoted as the year of the staycation but there is really nothing to suggest the above situation won't continue into 2021 and beyond if a vaccine isn't found.

For various reasons, international travel has to resume because a short term measure like a wholesale restriction on travel isn't sustainable for the long term. The green list, which is revised regularly, seems to be the best approach.

I just find it hard to believe that if Ireland's current approach is correct, that means that the other EU countries that have opened to travel (and the ECDC for not recommending travel restrictions) are incorrect. I can't see how all those other countries and the ECDC would be that foolhardy.

donkey balls

Bit of a long read but this is what to expect going to the Canaries

Lanzarote Information
POST COVID LOCKDOWN – WHAT LANZAROTE IS LIKE FOR TOURISTS
Post Covid
MIKENEWS
We’re being asked questions about post covid Lanzarote all the time, so we’ve put all the information together for you in one place.

Arrival
There are three steps on arrival:

1/ Your temperature will be taken – either via infra red scanners or hand held devices.

2/ You’ll need to present a QR code which is issued on completion of a form prior to travel.

3/ You will be observed by medical staff.

You must complete The FCS Health form prior to travel, which declares your health situation 48 hours before travel and gives authorities here your contact details. Once completed, you will have a QR code, which you can present at the health desk on arrival here.

You’ll be expected to wear a mask inside the terminal.

You’ll go through temperature scanners to see if you have a fever, and you will be observed by medical staff.

If any of the three steps are a cause of concern, you’ll be asked to move into an isolation area, where you will be given a test for Covid 19. Assuming you test negative, you will be allowed on your way. If you test positive, you will be transported to isolation accommodation that has been set up for the purpose.

Note there are no luggage trolleys available at the airport, and most of the shops and bars in the terminal are closed currently.

Buses, Taxis & Car Hire
Buses are currently running to about 50% of their normal timetable. Masks must be worn on public transport.

Taxis are running normally, and are thoroughly and regularly cleaned.

If you are collecting a hire car, again, it will have been thoroughly cleaned and sanitised prior to collection. Currently, most hire companies are only offering airport, rather than in resort, collection and drop off.

For buses, you will need the exact change to pay for your fare.

Mask Wearing
The rule here is that you must wear a mask when you cannot socially distance to 1.5 metres. In practice, that means in shops and on public transport, or anywhere else you cannot keep 1.5 metres from other people.

The wearing of masks in shops is compulsory. Do not try to enter a shop without wearing one.

But you should ensure you have a mask with you at all times just in case you stumble into a busy street or area.

Hotels
Hotels have strict rules for hygiene, and everything is set up to maintain social distancing of 1.5 metres, in pools, sunbathing areas, bars, restaurants and communal areas.

Currently, many hotels are still closed. These are the ones we have opening dates for: Which Hotels Are Open?

Villas and apartments
Owners should follow the hygiene rules and prepare for your arrival, leaving everything spotlessly clean and sanitised, bedding clean, and a supply of alcohol gel in the property.

Bars and restaurants
Tables will be kept 1.5 metres apart, so when eating and drinking, masks are not necessary. Staff will wear masks at all times. When using the rest rooms, or passing through to your table, you should wear a mask. Rest rooms are limited to one person per 4M2, so staff may ask you to wait to use them.

As there are limited numbers in restaurants, and currently not all are open, it makes sense to book in advance.

Payment in most places is preferred, and in some places only, by card – contactless is the best choice.

Menus are not allowed to be re-used, so will either be disposable, or in most cases, via QR code. Have a code scanner on your phone, and it will open the menu for you.

Beaches
Separate areas for sunbeds and umbrellas will be set up, with 1.5 metres between those from different households. Collectors will be responsible for disinfecting beds between users, who are asked to place towels on the sunbeds and disinfect their hands before using them.

Life guards are responsible for limiting overall numbers on beaches if necessary.

Supermarkets
Some will take your temperature on arrival, most will ask you to put on gloves and all require masks. There are no limits on how many members of a family can go in at any one time.

The bottom line
In most cases you can rely on the staff and signage to tell you what you need to do, but that’s no substitute for using some common sense and taking responsibility for your own health and that of people around you.

Give other people as much space as you can
Wear a mask if you think you might get within 1.5 metres of other people
Use hand sanitiser often and whenever you see it
Wash your hands thoroughly as often as you can
Report any symptoms as soon as you detect them
Lanzarote is currently Covid free – let’s all work together to keep it that way.

Also read Which Hotels are Opening
Casa Juan Ricardo is a spacious 3 bedroom villa in a sought after area of Playa Blanca and close to all the amenities of the resor.

Nijmegen

SimonTemplar wrote: »

For various reasons, international travel has to resume because a short term measure like a wholesale restriction on travel isn't sustainable for the long term. The green list, which is revised regularly, seems to be the best approach.

I just find it hard to believe that if Ireland's current approach is correct, that means that the other EU countries that have opened to travel (and the ECDC for not recommending travel restrictions) are incorrect. I can't see how all those other countries and the ECDC would be that foolhardy.

Why are continued restrictions not sustainable, though? Cargo is travelling. Essential workers are travelling. What our public health officials are saying is, "Don't take non essential travel" like holidays. Why is that position unsustainable? Unpalatable, I get, but unsustainable?

And I think that Ireland is lagging behind other countries by a few weeks. And I don't think there's anything much wrong with that to be honest. We benefited from being a few weeks behind at the start of all of this (by luck, probably) and the same could be said of now.

Let someone else be among the first wave to hit the beaches on the proverbial D-Day, get the glory if it goes well, and you stroll up the beach then afterward.

dfx- wrote: »

Nationwide lockdowns (sledgehammers to crack nuts) are not the long term solution to the virus. If anything Galicia, Leicester, Melbourne and the German one recently show the way forward. Nobody closed down countries.

Except they tried that in Italy back in March, first locking down just a few towns and then the wider area around Milan. It didn't work and it spread all across Italy and Europe.

My other half had flights to Milan around then, the Italian authorities and Irish airlines were telling us all how safe it was to travel there then, they had it contained.

Yeah, we all know how well that worked out.....

Hopefully regional lockdowns will be more successful now, with better testing. But I'd take the above examples very cautiously, we will have to wait and see if they work.

Nijmegen

bk wrote: »

Except they tried that in Italy back in March, first locking down just a few towns and then the wider area around Milan. It didn't work and it spread all across Italy and Europe.

My other half had flights to Milan around then, the Italian authorities and Irish airlines were telling us all how safe it was to travel there then, they had it contained.

Yeah, we all know how well that worked out.....

Hopefully regional lockdowns will be more successful now, with better testing. But I'd take the above examples very cautiously, we will have to wait and see if they work.

People also like to latch on to what others are doing. I'm old enough to remember when Sweden was a shining light to the world of how to handle Coronavirus without any lockdown or hassle at all. "But their public health officials say..." was a pretty common refrain.

Patience is a virtue...

SimonTemplar

Nijmegen wrote: »

Why are continued restrictions not sustainable, though? Cargo is travelling. Essential workers are travelling. What our public health officials are saying is, "Don't take non essential travel" like holidays. Why is that position unsustainable? Unpalatable, I get, but unsustainable?

And I think that Ireland is lagging behind other countries by a few weeks. And I don't think there's anything much wrong with that to be honest. We benefited from being a few weeks behind at the start of all of this (by luck, probably) and the same could be said of now.

Let someone else be among the first wave to hit the beaches on the proverbial D-Day, get the glory if it goes well, and you stroll up the beach then afterward.

If visiting family and friends abroad is deemed essential, then that makes it easier to stick with the non-essential travel even longer.

But there are a significant percentage of people in Europe employed directly or indirectly in tourism. In some regions, it is their primary industry. A long-term restriction on travel, which arguably is unnecessary, would cause major economic problems.

dfx-

bk wrote: »

Except they tried that in Italy back in March, first locking down just a few towns and then the wider area around Milan. It didn't work and it spread all across Italy and Europe.

My other half had flights to Milan around then, the Italian authorities and Irish airlines were telling us all how safe it was to travel there then, they had it contained.

Yeah, we all know how well that worked out.....

Hopefully regional lockdowns will be more successful now, with better testing. But I'd take the above examples very cautiously, we will have to wait and see if they work.

March isn't a valid comparison, the virus was long since embedded by then and community transmission was already out of control.

It's not comparable to the measures and preparedness that should be in place now.

dfx- wrote: »

March isn't a valid comparison, the virus was long since embedded by then and community transmission was already out of control.

It's not comparable to the measures and preparedness that should be in place now.

Except we are seeing the same pattern in Melbourne right now.

First they locked down some buildings, didn't work, then they locked down a much larger area of a number of neighbourhoods, it hasn't worked, just today they have announced the lockdown of the entire state of Victoria......

Podge_irl

bk wrote: »

Except they tried that in Italy back in March, first locking down just a few towns and then the wider area around Milan. It didn't work and it spread all across Italy and Europe.

That doesn't completely capture the picture though. The disease in Italy remains vastly more prominent in Lombardy and neighbouring areas then the rest of Italy. The disease was already out of Lombardy, but the local shutdown definitely limited the spread.

Ireland is definitely an outlier in its conservatism towards opening up. That may well prove to be prudent but I think people are being a bit overzealous in their criticism of those who question the advice. You don't need to be an expert in epidemiology to see that Ireland it out of kilter with the rest of Western Europe.

Jack1985

bk wrote: »

Except they tried that in Italy back in March, first locking down just a few towns and then the wider area around Milan. It didn't work and it spread all across Italy and Europe...

You keep using this point but its factually incorrect. The disease was in Italy as of December 2019 and spreading throughout the continent at the point of March 2020!

Jack1985

Car crash interview, the fact this ape has a voice at cabinet spouting off statements without any facts is truly shocking. Absoloutely no idea the percentages of those who book direct, versus through package holidays.

Jack1985 wrote: »

Car crash interview, the fact this ape has a voice at cabinet spouting off statements without any facts is truly shocking. Absoloutely no idea the percentages of those who book direct, versus through package holidays.

What exactly is wrong with that. I would agree with his stance, anyone who booked a flight in the past 6 months should have their head examined.

Jack1985

bk wrote: »

What exactly is wrong with that. I would agree with his stance, anyone who booked a flight in the past 6 months should have their head examined.

Here's NPHET 6 months ago for you to have a good read of (late January it was established so actually less than 6 months ago);

https://assets.gov.ie/68996/8ff1246d8b8c46208a143a7f75e6fbf4.pdf

The risk was ''low'' however the disease was already in Europe unbeknownst to most. Nobody in Europe or Ireland knew what lay ahead in January 2020.

Maybe you should have your own head examined.

Widdensushi

Jack1985 wrote: »

Car crash interview, the fact this ape has a voice at cabinet spouting off statements without any facts is truly shocking. Absoloutely no idea the percentages of those who book direct, versus through package holidays.

The arrogance, I don't need numbers as I worked in tourism and I know,, if he wasn't in government he would be crying out for refunds.

Jack1985 wrote: »

Here's NPHET 6 months ago for you to have a good read of (late January it was established so actually less than 6 months ago);

https://assets.gov.ie/68996/8ff1246d8b8c46208a143a7f75e6fbf4.pdf

The risk was ''low'' however the disease was already in Europe unbeknownst to most. Nobody in Europe or Ireland knew what lay ahead in January 2020.

Maybe you should have your own head examined.

Perhaps if you booked January/February, but anyone who booked from March on...

Beersmith

Surely not many did book from March on. Maybe people book their summer holidays December/January

Blut2

Podge_irl wrote: »

Ireland is definitely an outlier in its conservatism towards opening up. That may well prove to be prudent but I think people are being a bit overzealous in their criticism of those who question the advice. You don't need to be an expert in epidemiology to see that Ireland it out of kilter with the rest of Western Europe.

Thats the thing - I don't think anyone (or anyone sane at least) is arguing that Ireland should be following the reckless/incompetent behaviour of the US or Brazil for example. Fully opened up, no restrictions, whatever. But instead more and more people are wondering why we aren't following the very successful, very logical, behaviour of countries like Denmark or Germany.

The people defending current Irish governmental policy love to point at the US and say - "look at what not being overly conservative gets us!". But a much fairer comparison would be to look at our neighbours in sensibly governed Europe. If their much more advanced openings up are going fine, and have been for months at this stage, then the Irish government should be providing logical, fact based evidence of why they're not doing the same here.

Avoation1091

Beersmith wrote: »

Surely not many did book from March on. Maybe people book their summer holidays December/January

I always book Dec/Jan as do many other people i no. I booked in Jan for Sept and never imagined COVID going the way it did. I was booked to go to the US and thought the ban would have been lifted by now. (Silly i know) I didnt realise how much it would increase.

The situation with the virus is impossible to predict. No one could have predicted this back in Jan.

Blut2 wrote: »

Thats the thing - I don't think anyone (or anyone sane at least) is arguing that Ireland should be following the reckless/incompetent behaviour of the US or Brazil for example. Fully opened up, no restrictions, whatever. But instead more and more people are wondering why we aren't following the very successful, very logical, behaviour of countries like Denmark or Germany.

The people defending current Irish governmental policy love to point at the US and say - "look at what not being overly conservative gets us!". But a much fairer comparison would be to look at our neighbours in sensibly governed Europe.

From what I've seen on other (non-aviation) forums, the majority of people seem to want us to lock down more, not open up.

In fact there have been multiple threads over on r/ireland about tourists from US and UK coming here and people are pretty outraged. So much so that lots of them are writing to TD's asking them to put more stringent measures in place.

Outside of the bubble of the aviation industry, there is little or no public support for travel from what I can see.

Cookiemunster

bk wrote: »

From what I've seen on other (non-aviation) forums, the majority of people seem to want us to lock down more, not open up.

In fact there have been multiple threads over on r/ireland about tourists from US and UK coming here and people are pretty outraged. So much so that lots of them are writing to TD's asking them to put more stringent measures in place.

Outside of the bubble of the aviation industry, there is little or no public support for travel from what I can see.

That sounds like a bit of confirmation bias to me. I know plenty of people who have nothing at all to do with the aviation or travel industry who are mad to get away. Admittedly is skewed towards younger people, but to say there is little to no public support for travel is wrong.

Blut2

bk wrote: »

From what I've seen on other (non-aviation) forums, the majority of people seem to want us to lock down more, not open up.

In fact there have been multiple threads over on r/ireland about tourists from US and UK coming here and people are pretty outraged. So much so that lots of them are writing to TD's asking them to put more stringent measures in place.

Outside of the bubble of the aviation industry, there is little or no public support for travel from what I can see.

I'm not sure reddit threads count as a particularly statistically valid sampling of the wider Irish population's wishes. Its my understanding it demographically skews quite heavily towards anti-social teenagers. Who wouldn't exactly be the most frequent flyers.

The one reliable quantitative measure we do have access to, flight bookings, shows a big surge in flight bookings for July and August. So enough people are wanting to travel that they're quite literally putting their money on the line it seems.

MoeJay

Implicit in all these messages and opinions that one should not travel is that somehow all these other countries (primarily EU in this instance) are doing everything wrong and we know so much better. I don’t buy it.

A prolonged, unscientific approach to travel will have consequences far beyond the aviation industry in this country. But it will leave deep scars on aviation itself. The politicians better be ready to deal with it....

Blut2 wrote: »

I'm not sure reddit threads count as a particularly statistically valid sampling of the wider Irish population's wishes. Its my understanding it demographically skews quite heavily towards anti-social teenagers. Who wouldn't exactly be the most frequent flyers.

Way to generalise there :rolleyes:

Only 4.8% of posters there are under 18 (as of 2018). 32% 18 to 24, 27% 25 to 29, 20% 30 to 34

https://imgur.com/a/MYuyRXk

Sounds like pretty solid age group of people who frequently fly.

Actually if you read the minutes from the meetings of the government committee on reopening of aviation who published the report a few weeks ago, you will see that they did an informal poll of both TD's and the public and found little support for reopening aviation.

I'd love to see one of the newspapers to carry out a proper national polling on it. I suspect there is little or no support amongst the majority of the public.

This is why the politicians are so comfortable with being conservative about this and telling people to staycation. It is inline with what how the majority of the public feel and are telling them.