lastusername wrote: Yes, there is a widespread unemployment and the economy is being propped up, but many people still have significant savings and even more since lockdown. There is €180 billion on deposit in Irish banks. Many businesses are thriving due to the current crisis and many others are largely unaffected. Hundreds of thousands of people are still in jobs, with savings, still really wanting a home of their own.
lastusername wrote: That's still the competition when you want to buy a house which means I don't see any major drops. It's not like the last recession which was primarily the result of property speculation and reckless lending. It's the complete opposite this time, especially on the latter.
Smouse156 wrote: In similar situation, WFH and no rent. Going to wait until next year and the overall picture is clearer
stayback wrote: » That’s a very sweeping statement . I have a so called “good job” but have been on the COVID subsidy and my wife is on the COVID subsidy. We bought a house for 450k we are managing because we have savings but only for that we were fuc***. We will hopefully go back to pay without subsidy soon. This pandemic has hit everyone bar some public servants.
Shelga wrote: » I agree with all you say, but also when the baseline predictions for the economy are a massive decline, how can that not have an impact on prices? I am going back and forth on this every few hours to be honest!
Darc19 wrote: » And at 6pm after an hour in traffic and still not past Rathcoole, that smile will be gone. And that's why people pay a premium for living in a city.
lastusername wrote: » I think anyone who thinks there will be big price drops is dreaming. The one big factor determining whether big drops will happen is simply affordability - whether people can afford the prices sellers want. Yes, there is a widespread unemployment and the economy is being propped up, but many people still have significant savings and even more since lockdown. There is €180 billion on deposit in Irish banks. Many businesses are thriving due to the current crisis and many others are largely unaffected. Hundreds of thousands of people are still in jobs, with savings, still really wanting a home of their own. That's still the competition when you want to buy a house which means I don't see any major drops. It's not like the last recession which was primarily the result of property speculation and reckless lending. It's the complete opposite this time, especially on the latter. You can also combine all of the above with increased consumer sentiment as people get more confident about getting out and about and spending their money, helping to get the economy back up on its feet for more businesses. Developments on the Covid treatment and vaccine front will (hopefully) accelerate all this too.
Smouse156 wrote: » In similar situation, WFH and no rent. Going to wait until next year and the overall picture is clearer
neutral guy wrote: » T There is no turists in Dublin what will hit short term property owners
JJJackal wrote: » This is likely correct However, there are no Irish people on holidays abroad - consequently if they want a holiday it will be in Ireland Tourists from abroad are not as essential if all Irish people holiday at home
Walnut Salad wrote: » 11 million people visited Ireland in 2019. Every sector is getting hit here, even Pharma, IT and Agrifood. Reduction in demand will lead to significant jobs losses or salary cuts.
JJJackal wrote: » Irish people 7.5 billion on foreign trips in 2018 (some of this will now be spent here)https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/irish-people-spent-almost-75bn-on-foreign-holidays-in-2018-931676.html
Walnut Salad wrote: » Sensible approach. I would advise any first time buyers to avoid the housing market until early next year. Going by previous economic downturns worldwide, it is highly highly unlikely they will miss out financially.
The Belly wrote: » Not entirely correct your forgetting a few others Property maintenance cost Property tax Estate management fees No flexibilty to move Negative equity Interest rate rises
bbari wrote: » Being an accidental LL for the past decade and had decided that as soon as current tenants will move out, I'll put the place up for sale. They will be out next week. I have been in 2 minds whether I should put place up for sale or not as wasn't sure what the market is like out there. There are 4 apartments for sales in the block. I called all the agents and 3 of the apartments got sale agreed in last 1/2 weeks 20K (10%) more than the asking price. This tells that there are buyers out there.
Dylan94 wrote: » I would imagine that the government plans to increase the number of Part V houses from 10% of a development to 20% will have the effect of decreasing the number of houses avaliable on the private market and potentially increasing prices in the long run.
neutral guy wrote: » This time lending cockoo funds and leverage investors from abroad what is a lot higher risk investors than local banks in Ireland.So for that reason I suppose the crisis on property market wll be bigger than in 2008.The next thing we forget another important thing as second hand property market which is play his important part of supply also.There will be plenty unemployed builders when recession will be started and bussines on second hand market will back to usual as per 2008 recession.I know the guys who was buying old houses for 30/40K in County Louth and after "some renovation" was selling them for 90/120K.I could buy 2 beds house in cetral part of Dundalk for 23K in 2010 ! Which now cost 95K ! When similar house in 2005 cost 145K !!!The people who has his own way in life and some cash in pocket will enjoy 2021 recession I think.
The_Conductor wrote: » The proposal is to separate out social and affordable housing rather than have them under the singular Part V umbrella- and have 10% of each. Its to stop developers creating ghettos with 20% of the units in the social housing category.
neutral guy wrote: » I think at the moment government are badly trapped.When mortgage holidays will be ended many people will stop pay mortgages and government will have step in to save or banks or mortgage holders.This gonna be very interesting.Once this will happen then we will see real property prices I think.
Bass Reeves wrote: » So how many 2 beds did you buy in Dundalk for 23K in 2010
neutral guy wrote: » I did not buy any because I was stupid believing PA songs and spent my money in 2007 paying for overpriced property abroad which worth now half of what I paid.And when I could buy 2 beds for 23 K I did not have money and job,only things I had bills.Today I not gonna be stupid again and I not believe any PA songs anymore ! In this recession I will step with good bag of cash !
The Belly wrote: » The property and rental crisis is government policy. They could solve the problem if they borrowed the required amount necessary and build on a massive scale using a tender process using the major developers. They have the land control the taxation and can borrow money for close zero interest. But they wont do it. Why? Homeowners vote and will vote for the status quo as long as property prices are rising. Large scale affordable housing is not good for property or rental prices. What good for society doesnt matter. Its the votes that count. But it will eventually come to ahead. The voting in the last election was the start of it with SF getting the most of the 25-50 age bracket vote. This is the age group badly affected during the last crisis and who struggle to buy an affordable home. This covid crisis and the subsequent downturn will just speed up the process of FF FG Greens demise.
guyfawkes5 wrote: » To be fair, you're making a sweeping statement yourself. I'm in a tech job and given the service my employer provides and customer base they have, they are technically doing better than they normally would be right now. There is no hint of the Covid subsidy and its share price is at its highest ever.
lastusername wrote: » For all the reasons I mentioned! I think housing is in a bubble of its own to an extent, largely unaffected by the rest of the economy. Think about it - if say 5000 people in an area are looking to buy in the 400-500k range, and 30% of them are no longer in a position to buy due to Covid, that still leaves 70% of them still looking and still ready to buy...
Hubertj wrote: » I think I agree with what you are saying but It’s sad that people think SF will solve their problems. If they ever do get into government it will make things a lot worse.
Deub wrote: » From you post, it looks like you don’t expect a drop at all and maybe even an increase. You think the unemployment will have no effect?
