Smouse156 wrote: » Give it time! Rents fall first, then the apartment prices will fall in tandem as investors will pay less if the outlook is poor and will want steady/higher yields. That will drag house prices down over the medium term. 10% drop by this time next year is realistic. Property takes time to fall.https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/
Iceman29 wrote: » I just used a car as an example. I could have used apples or oranges.....Didn't think the recession deniers would go to such length to cling on to their fantasy as to bring up depreciation..... Anyway the point was that people will want to sell now rather than wait for the inevitable massive price drop.
Hubertj wrote: » I don’t see anyone in this thread denying there will be a fall in prices, debate is by how much. Economists analysis seems to range from 5%-25% from what I have read. However, I really really do believe boards is a more credible source of information.
Hubertj wrote: » I would eat orange instead of selling them. Good source of vitamin c. I don’t see anyone in this thread denying there will be a fall in prices, debate is by how much. Economists analysis seems to range from 5%-25% from what I have read. However, I really really do believe boards is a more credible source of information.
Assetbacked wrote: » For buying and selling, I don't see a price fall at the price range typical FTBs are buying at (for me this would be up to 500k, maybe even a bit more) - we still have our housing crisis and, to be honest, the issue for FTBs has been a lack of turnkey properties within this price range, not the price. There's still far too many people hoping for prices to fall which to me indicates that there are plenty of people in a good position with the luxury of looking to buy hence why they want prices to fall. Above 1m is where there could be a meaningful fall in prices, but at the same time 10% or even 20% once you go over a million is hefty but not a crash. And the high estimates of property prices falling seem to be 20/30% so, taking into account the extreme estimates, I don't see 1.5m dropping to 1.2m as being that dramatic (30% drop). Or 1.8m dropping to 1.4m as being a "crash".
Dub4747 wrote: » True but I can say that as someone who needs to sell a house in order to buy a bigger one, we're being advised by almost everyone to sell now and if we can get a good price just take it and close the deal as prices will fall. So sell and then rent and be there ready to go, ready to buy and not in a chain.
combat14 wrote: » great chart interesting to see rents for 3 bed houses have already fallen back by 3.5 years to Jan 2017 - rents are still too high.. interesting to see if they drop more over the next period of time
Iceman29 wrote: » I just used a car as an example. I could have used apples or oranges.....Didn't think the recession deniers would go to such length to cling on to their fantasy as to bring up depreciation.....Anyway the point was that people will want to sell now rather than wait for the inevitable massive price drop.
stinger31 wrote: » This is exactly the situation that myself and the OH are in. We're selling and cashing in now. otherwise we'll be kicking ourselves. We've spoken to EA ,parents and in fact all our close friends (some are doing the same). The opinion is the same with every single person agreeing that huge reductions are on the way. So we're going with it and if we get near our asking we'll be happy. I personally see the sh1t hitting the fan in the next few month and want out now.
Hubertj wrote: » I think the data needs to show how many units are actually being let to give it more context. Also why do you think rents are still too high? What level should they be at?
Assetbacked wrote: » I think rents should be a fraction of salaries (as workers are predominantly the renters). Based on what seems to be the current average salary, it should be possible to rent a studio apartment in Dublin for €500/600; a habitable 1 bedroom apartment for €1000 (obviously not in the city centre); 2 bedroom apartment for €1300 (again not in the city centre). When people are paying 30%+ of their after tax salaries just to cover their rent, the economy suffers in a big way as it is essentially dead money as it is a big chunk which is funnelled up to a small portion of society, when it would be better to be spread out throughout the more active economy (i.e. pubs, shops, car dealerships, hotels, supermarkets etc.). It's better for general wellbeing for people to be able to rent their own place, it teaches them to be responsible and grown up; and is an incentive to work hard. What is toxic is to not even have the option of moving away from the city centre in order to rent a cheaper place and what is utterly soul-destroying is having to share a bedroom with another adult. Politically, it is obvious this is the single biggest issue among the younger generations (i.e. those under 40) and therefore it is important to realise that the market will be poked and probed even more from the political establishment in an attempt to establish more affordable rents so it isn't just economic arguments we need to consider in the context of the rental market discussions!
Iceman29 wrote: » Do you not understand? if i knew that prices would fall and wanted to sell, I'd sell as fast as i can. Pretty simple like
fliball123 wrote: » The 2 are kind of linked what you earn will determine how much you can pay on rent/mortgage. I would be for taxing people more like companies and allowing you to pay out essential expenses such as rent/mortgage, ESB, travel and food before paying any tax that way the worker gets at the very least his/her essentials before paying for anyone else's welfare. Rents are always unpredictable and people will always want to live in better areas. I mean look at the likes of New York and London rents are bonkers when you compare them to Dublin. I am waiting for the Dublin is no New York or London argument, yet a high % of the population would want to live close to Dublin due to work opportunities and higher levels of amenities and you can bet the majority of foreign people coming into the country would prefer to live in Dublin so increase demand always brings price points up. There are plenty of cheap rentals down in Leitrim if you want cheap
GreeBo wrote: » Allow me to interpret your suggestion: If I was flying in a plane and I knew the plane was going to crash at some stage in the future, I'd jump out of the plane now, just in case. :rolleyes:
Assetbacked wrote: » But Dublin is not like Paris or New York as we have sprawling suburbs and relatively low density. There is plenty of space in the capital to build 3-5 storey blocks of apartments throughout the suburbs and space to build even close to the city centre hence the massive amounts of planning permissions which have gone through the planning system in the past couple of years and right up until the covid crisis.
Iceman29 wrote: » Maybe more like the plane was crashing and there was limited parachutes on a plane.....
fliball123 wrote: » Why would you sell at a loss when you can sit on your hole not paying your mortgage.
errlloyd wrote: » Because you'll destroy your credit rating and doom yourself to never getting another mortgage right?
GreeBo wrote: » We dont have transport links to support high density suburbs, we cant even support current housing estate density. If you want to support medium/high density then its either within the city centre or on rapid public transport links.
fliball123 wrote: » All very true and yet there is still a lot of foreigners and nationals who want to live there (go figure) hense the high levels of rent
Assetbacked wrote: » I think rents should be a fraction of salaries (as workers are predominantly the renters). Based on what seems to be the current average salary, it should be possible to rent (approximately) a studio apartment in Dublin for €500/600; a habitable 1 bedroom apartment for €1000 (obviously not in the city centre); 2 bedroom apartment for €1300 (again not in the city centre). When people are paying 30%+ of their after tax salaries just to cover their rent, the economy suffers in a big way as it is essentially dead money as it is a big chunk which is funnelled up to a small portion of society (or even to investors who are not even based in Ireland), when it would be better to be spread out throughout the more active economy (i.e. pubs, shops, car dealerships, hotels, supermarkets etc.). It's also better for the general wellbeing of people to be able to rent their own place, it teaches them to be responsible, it's easier to meet partners ("Come back to my place" instead of, "I can't bring you back to mine as my roommate is home") and is an incentive to work hard. What is toxic is to not even have the option of moving away from the city centre in order to rent a cheaper place and what is utterly soul-destroying is having to share a bedroom with another adult. Politically, it is obvious this is the single biggest issue among the younger generations (i.e. those under 40) and therefore it is important to realise that the market will be poked and probed even more from the political establishment in an attempt to establish more affordable rents so it isn't just economic arguments we need to consider in the context of the rental market discussions!
