Mr Hindley wrote: » https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/aib-introduces-frightening-mortgage-rules-and-halts-lending-to-covid-payment-recipients-1.4290956 Like many prospective buyers on here, I'm seeing the housing market being very buoyant, with properties quickly going for over the asking price. However, the above seems to indicate that while the you-know-what hasn't hit the fan yet, it's on its way...
JimmyVik wrote: » I watched many friends by houses and apartments to live in in the mid to late 2000s, while I sat on the fence. Come the 2010s I actually felt sorry for them and was glad I didnt buy when they did. Come 2020 and I was jealous. They were all living in their houses with half the mortgage paid off already and where was I. Still sitting on the fence. Lesson is that its a Marathon, not sprint .... There will be ups and downs before the finish line, but if you dont cross the start line, dont expect to ever see a finish line
Springy Turf wrote: » Does that figure include universal supports like Child benefit?
Cyrus wrote: » Try and find where I said house prices won’t drop. I didn’t, they were already stagnating and on the way down where I live , I bought 3 years ago and despite some of my neighbours paying 7 or 8 percent more than me I don’t think if we went to sell that we would get much more than we paid at this end of the market. This years gdp is of course going to be decline that’s inevitable the country was closed for 3 months. That’s not my point , it’s the doom mongers that are getting all frothy about a decade long recession you have no idea how bad it will be etc etc It’s some sort of sick mindset where the misery can’t be miserable enough
smurgen wrote: » It's about making the best out of a bad situation.sentiment feeds into prices. You talking up house prices while we enter recession is making the worst of a bad situation for would be buyers.
errlloyd wrote: » Is there a way to tell if a property on myhome has had its price cut. There was one I was looking at that I think has gone down.
Cyrus wrote: » So 64 not 75% What’s the percentage of the work force that’s public servants ?
GocRh wrote: » This. While GDP projections are just projections, we do have hard data on the economic impact - number of people receiving state support either through PUP or payroll. It's highly unlikely that a shock of this magnitude won't impact properties. Figures for 30th of May: 'Speaking on RTÉ’s Week in Politics programme, Mr O’Donovan said that out of a labour force of around 2.5 million people, some 1.6 million are either public servants already or receiving some form of payment from the State. “It is not sustainable going forward that we have 1.6 million people drawing an income support at some level from the State and 900,000 not drawing a support.'
Walnut Salad wrote: » I don't want to insult you but I find these comments very childlike. We are debating in a thread on house prices and need to look at the data points. The ESRI says the 'Irish economy faces largest recession in history' in a report at the end of May: https://www.esri.ie/news/irish-economy-faces-largest-recession-in-history-as-lockdown-takes-its-toll On real GDP decline they have 3 predictions; Benign = 8.6% Baseline = 12.4% Severe = 17.1% Regardless of the scenario, the Irish economy is set to experience the largest annual decline in its history. The IMF said in June that global growth is projected at –4.9% in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 forecast. The numbers are moving fast....and always in the negative. There are people on this thread saying house prices will remain unchanged or go up/down a small percentage. Fair enough. Some have even provided their rationale for those projections. However, and this is important, there is a high probability that those people are wrong. Indeed they will more than likely be very wrong. The odds are completely against them historically speaking. I don't think anyone can argue that. Trying to silence people that are on the right side of the probability distribution seems a bit weird to me. I hope that the ERSI prediction falls into the Benign category. I really do. We have endured enough as a country already. It is already having an effect on people close to me. For me it's not a question of whether the GDP and house prices fall, it's simply a question of by how much and for how long. The next question is what we and the new government should do to help the recovery. Good night.
MrMusician18 wrote: » Pretty sure it's effecting almost all sectors. At the height of the lockdown something like 75% of workers were either unemployed, receiving the covid payment, were in jobs supported by the wage subsidy scheme or were employed by the state.
bubblypop wrote: » This is anecdotal I watched 2 friends put houses up for sale in 2007, in Dublin, one was moving down the country hoping to build on a site given to them by family, the other, had to emigrate to Australia. The 2 houses stayed in the market for over a year. The ones that moved to Oz, never sold, house in the country, Celtic tiger house. The other, sold eventually, but already built in the country, so they dropped the price &sold as quick as they could. Point being, neither saw any issue in 2007, but the market bottomed out quickly! Personally, I bought in 2009. But the market went further south after I bought. Point being, nobody thought in 07/08 that things would get as bad as they did. But the recession was hard. The next one will be hard, maybe harder. Things can go south. Property values can go south, but if its somewhere to live...... It really doesn't matter, if you plan in staying there.
Queenio wrote: » This is my exact position now. While I'm certain I will get renewal as we are both public sector I want this pushed over the line ASAP if possible bc we simply need to move. I have no interest in sinking another fortune in rent into a black hole with a child on the way. I've two friends in the same position, one who closed her sale last week (with 17% off asking for an extremely high end property bc the originating sale fell through last minute). Interestingly we are offering 4% under asking for a house that sale agreed since January and sale fell through (originally 20k over asking). Vendors having none of it. Minimal supply and AIP ready to go makes it a tight market atm. Not fun. Lots of viewings at the houses we have seen and offers at and over asking within a few hours of a viewing.
brisan wrote: » According to one EA I know its people who have mortgage approval rushing to use it before it runs out in case the rules change and they don't get a renewal of approval Use it or lose it However he is an EA so cant really believe him
MrMusician18 wrote: » The collapse in tourism and aviation might though. I have to say I've been extremely surprised at the resilience of the property market so far. I have my eye on the market to move and there seems to be plenty of churn going on with a good few properties that have piqued my interest going sale agreed during the pandemic. I have said that I thought that the market would sharply decline but that hasn't happened, not yet at least. It may take some time for the damage to the economy to work its way through to the reality of peoples day to day lives - especially as the state weans business off support and the non viable go to the wall.
Walnut Salad wrote: » Is anybody able to point to an example in any modern country where house prices did not decrease significantly during a deep national and global recession?
TheSheriff wrote: » A few posters on here seem to be frothing at the mouth at the thought of a mega recession :rolleyes: It would be interesting to see the breakdown of the unemployment figures if such a breakdown existed i.e. what is the average income of the person impacted, what sector are they in. I think this information could be used to give some indication of where things will go i.e. if mostly low paid retail/service industry gigs then its more likely to impact lower end properties/apartments. This would likely feed up to higher properties, albeit to a lesser extent. While a recession is here/coming, it does not appear that it will impact all equally (increased taxes aside). While there are many who have had their AIP pulled, there are also many people who have not and CV-19 has been nothing more than a prolonged lockdown where they have WFH and managed to save more than usual.
suave.4u wrote: » The bids on this property: Bidder 1 €450,000 12 Jun, 2020 - 23:05:50 Bidder 2 €455,000 16 Jun, 2020 - 20:05:08 Bidder 1 €460,000 16 Jun, 2020 - 21:30:34 Bidder 1 €480,000 17 Jun, 2020 - 09:51:58 Bidder 1 €500,000 24 Jun, 2020 - 13:27:03 is there something fishy here? Last bidder put in 20K?
Luciano Squeaking Greenhouse wrote: » House in Lucan asking €450k currently at €500k bidding. A lot of competition.
Villa05 wrote: » Some people on here want the froth removed from the property market and a bit of balance restored to avoid a mega recession
Cyrus wrote: » The desire of some people for a deep and damaging and long lasting recession is mind boggling it’s like they crave it or something. It’s a strange mindset.
TheSheriff wrote: » A few posters on here seem to be frothing at the mouth at the thought of a mega recession
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