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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Iceman29

TheSheriff wrote: »

Yes, this is the golden goose of our generation for pharma shareholders. Whichever pharma company gets there first will generate massive profits for many years to come - there is considerable resources being put into this as mentioned.

Not to delve into my worklife too much, but there are already supply chains in place for some of the bigger companies. Money has changed hands, contracts locked in - there is anticipation of positive efficacy outcomes will be there soon. It'll be a big pay day for whomever gets there first.

Europe approved Remdesevir today (Note; not a vaccine), while not news in itself, whats important here is the speed at which this was recommended for approval, it noted in the article submission occurred on the 5th of June, so approx 20 days to approve a drug. As I said, considerable resources....... (Can't post the link but its on the European Medicines Agency website).

A vaccine could be with us sooner than we think, but I would argue that the mere notion of a vaccine being available (with positive clinical outcomes) will have a far greater impact on the property market than physically being immunized.

Even if a vaccine is with us tomorrow the damage has already been done. the economy has been destroyed for years to come. the world was totally shut down for over 3 months.

lastusername

Claw Hammer wrote: »

What about those in secure employment who might have decided that the time to move is when there is uncertainty and the chance of a bargain?

Yep...we are sale agreed and have no doubt we would have had many more bidders and a price that would have gone much higher than the amount we paid over the asking price, if all this wasn't going on!

If you think about it, if the economy was booming and we were in full-employment right now, how much competition would there be and how high would asking prices be going?

So it's six of one...half dozen of the other.

This is why I always say the right time to buy can only ever be the time that's right for you.

WeeCuppaCha

Claw Hammer wrote: »

What about those in secure employment who might have decided that the time to move is when there is uncertainty and the chance of a bargain?

Absolutely. I am that demographic myself. However, I would have thought I was in the minority. Maybe not. The problem now is that rather than the chance of a bargain, I find myself in a market that has actually risen. Strange times.

nerrad01

Deleted User wrote: »

Plenty of businesses have been surviving even through the peak of the pandemic. Online sales, click and collect, take aways. I know a shop owner and a restaurant owner, both have had booming trade.

Some haven't been able to adapt, pubs and hair dressers for example. Personally, there are some things about the old way of life that I'll happily see die away. Ram packed pubs and public transport to name a couple.

Struggling pubs and hair dressers is not something I'd imagine bringing down the housing market.

im trying to figure out if people who are saying things are back to normal in europe and its business as usual are having a laugh! talk about having your head buried in the sand

cnocbui

lastusername wrote: »

...

This is why I always say the right time to buy can only ever be the time that's right for you.

This. I have never thought about timing the market, only about what needed to be done.

Iceman29

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The decline started in 2008 tho, while now nothing is happening

When are we expected to see signs of a trend change? it's July, most European countries are moving back to normal

Ok buddy , buy a house at current prices so but don't come back blaming the banks, government ,others etc when you are sitting in a house worth 25/30% lower than what you paid for it at the start of the whole crisis ..... remember, we haven't even started to come out of this crisis yet

[Deleted User]

Iceman29 wrote: »

Even if a vaccine is with us tomorrow the damage has already been done. the economy has been destroyed for years to come. the world was totally shut down for over 3 months.

If everyone in the world who faced adversity had your attitude, we'd never have evolved into who we collectively are today. Save the theatrics for the Daily Mail columns please...

Iceman29

Deleted User wrote: »

If everyone in the world who faced adversity had your attitude, we'd never have evolved into who we collectively are today. Save the theatrics for the Daily Mail columns please...

Ok, tell me what me or you can do in this situation to save the world economy now?

some people just don't like the truth

Walnut Salad

Is anybody able to point to an example in any modern country where house prices did not decrease significantly during a deep national and global recession?

Iceman29

Walnut Salad wrote: »

Is anybody able to point to an example in any modern country where house prices did not decrease significantly during a deep national and global recession?

People wont be able to find such articles with their heads buried in the sand

Yurt2

Walnut Salad wrote: »

Is anybody able to point to an example in any modern country where house prices did not decrease significantly during a deep national and global recession?

The London market experienced a huge influx of hot foreign cash looking for a safe haven during the GFC. Property prices in almost every segment rose I think I recall.

[Deleted User]

nerrad01 wrote: »

im trying to figure out if people who are saying things are back to normal in europe and its business as usual are having a laugh! talk about having your head buried in the sand

Why did you quote my post when saying that? Where did I say things in europe are back to normal??

hometruths

Yurt! wrote: »

The London market experienced a huge influx of hot foreign cash looking for a safe haven during the GFC. Property prices in almost every segment rose I think I recall.

Not quite as I recall.

cnocbui

Walnut Salad wrote: »

Is anybody able to point to an example in any modern country where house prices did not decrease significantly during a deep national and global recession?

lastusername

Iceman29 wrote: »

Ok, tell me what me or you can do in this situation to save the world economy now?

some people just don't like the truth

The truth generally lies beyond the big scary headlines designed to make you click or pick up a paper in a shop. Tonnes of industries are booming and many are doing wayyy better than before, which sounds crazy but it's true! Mick's Garage for example sold over 100k worth of goods in April versus 20k in the same month last year (interesting article if you google it).

Then you have a wide variety of businesses from coffee suppliers to takeaways and restaurants with online ordering, food companies, alcohol providers turned sanitiser suppliers, etc.

Then there are millions of people with lots more savings in their bank accounts, ready to spend and dying to get back to normal in terms of going to eat out, get a hair cut, etc...

Sure, don't bury your head in the sand but know that the reality is far more nuanced than 'massive economic crisis' ahead. The truth is always that 'for some, really not for others' needs to be added onto the end.

errlloyd

Is there a way to tell if a property on myhome has had its price cut. There was one I was looking at that I think has gone down.

[Deleted User]

Economies expand and contract. Housing prices go up and down. That's life, get over it.

Walnut Salad

cnocbui wrote: »

My question was: Is anybody able to point to an example in any modern country where house prices did not decrease significantly during a deep national and global recession?

When was NZ having a deep national recession during that period?

NZ did implement a law in 2018 banning the sale of homes to foreign investors (mainly Chinese).

Queenio

errlloyd wrote: »

Is there a way to tell if a property on myhome has had its price cut. There was one I was looking at that I think has gone down.

If you Google the address and look at the lower search results you'll often find the original asking even if the link is dead. EA rarely change the price on daft, they delete and resubmit the ad which can be misleading. It's hard to keep track without setting up your own excel file but I've mostly been able to find the original entry date and asking price through a Google search

cnocbui

Walnut Salad wrote: »

My question was: Is anybody able to point to an example in any modern country where house prices did not decrease significantly during a deep national and global recession?

When was NZ having a deep national recession during that period?

NZ did implement a law in 2018 banning the sale of homes to foreign investors (mainly Chinese).

The duration of this six-quarter recession has been somewhat longer than the average recession of 4.3 quarters; but its 4.0 percentage depth has been considerably less than those for the 1951/52 and 1948 recessions, somewhat below that for the 1976/78 episode, and marginally less than the average depth of 4.1 per cent. In terms of overall severity, a measure which reflects duration and depth, this recession has been New Zealand’s fourth most severe. Its cumulated GDP loss of 11.5 per cent has been greater than the average loss of 10.4 per cent,

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research-and-publications/discussion-papers/2014/dp2014-02

I presume I don't have to also prove there was a global recession at this time?

Walnut Salad

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research-and-publications/discussion-papers/2014/dp2014-02

I presume I don't have to also prove there was a global recession at this time?

I think you are really clutching at straws now but I'll play along.

"New Zealand's most recent recession commenced with the March 2008 quarter and ended with the June 2009 quarter"

I am looking at NZ's GDP growth rate during that period
https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/gdp-growth

The worst quarter was a whopping -1%. Hardly a deep national recession?

ERSI = In the Baseline scenario real GDP declines by 12.4% this year. This compares with a decline of 17.1% in the Severe scenario and an 8.6% fall in the Benign scenario

errlloyd

Queenio wrote: »

If you Google the address and look at the lower search results you'll often find the original asking even if the link is dead. EA rarely change the price on daft, they delete and resubmit the ad which can be misleading. It's hard to keep track without setting up your own excel file but I've mostly been able to find the original entry date and asking price through a Google search

Nice. This worked.

Apartment was relisted 30k lower. ðŸ‘€

Iceman29

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/ryanair-threatens-to-lay-off-120-pilots-and-close-cork-and-shannon-bases-1.4290903

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/manufacturing/redundancies-sought-at-baby-formula-factory-in-limerick-1.4290808

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/mater-private-boss-warns-staff-over-its-future-in-face-of-recession-1.4290722?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fmater-private-boss-warns-staff-over-its-future-in-face-of-recession-1.4290722

With headlines in the last couple of hours .........Yeah all seems fine in the economy

c.p.w.g.w

Iceman29 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/ryanair-threatens-to-lay-off-120-pilots-and-close-cork-and-shannon-bases-1.4290903

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/manufacturing/redundancies-sought-at-baby-formula-factory-in-limerick-1.4290808

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/mater-private-boss-warns-staff-over-its-future-in-face-of-recession-1.4290722?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fmater-private-boss-warns-staff-over-its-future-in-face-of-recession-1.4290722

With headlines in the last couple of hours .........Yeah all seems fine in the economy

The wyeth one is strange...but its probably just cost management/reduction exercise from Nestle

whiskey_sour

If you search the address on twitter any entry + price it ever had should come up.

whiskey_sour

errlloyd wrote: »

Is there a way to tell if a property on myhome has had its price cut. There was one I was looking at that I think has gone down.

If you search the address on twitter any entry + price it ever had should come up.

MrMusician18

Deleted User wrote: »

Plenty of businesses have been surviving even through the peak of the pandemic. Online sales, click and collect, take aways. I know a shop owner and a restaurant owner, both have had booming trade.

Some haven't been able to adapt, pubs and hair dressers for example. Personally, there are some things about the old way of life that I'll happily see die away. Ram packed pubs and public transport to name a couple.

Struggling pubs and hair dressers is not something I'd imagine bringing down the housing market.

The collapse in tourism and aviation might though.

I have to say I've been extremely surprised at the resilience of the property market so far. I have my eye on the market to move and there seems to be plenty of churn going on with a good few properties that have piqued my interest going sale agreed during the pandemic. I have said that I thought that the market would sharply decline but that hasn't happened, not yet at least.

It may take some time for the damage to the economy to work its way through to the reality of peoples day to day lives - especially as the state weans business off support and the non viable go to the wall.

Marius34

Walnut Salad wrote: »

Is anybody able to point to an example in any modern country where house prices did not decrease significantly during a deep national and global recession?

Germany, 2008 Financial Crisis.

Cyrus

Iceman29 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/ryanair-threatens-to-lay-off-120-pilots-and-close-cork-and-shannon-bases-1.4290903

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/manufacturing/redundancies-sought-at-baby-formula-factory-in-limerick-1.4290808

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/mater-private-boss-warns-staff-over-its-future-in-face-of-recession-1.4290722?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fmater-private-boss-warns-staff-over-its-future-in-face-of-recession-1.4290722

With headlines in the last couple of hours .........Yeah all seems fine in the economy

The desire of some people for a deep and damaging and long lasting recession is mind boggling it’s like they crave it or something .

It’s a strange mindset.

Springy Turf

Cyrus wrote: »

The desire of some people for a deep and damaging and long lasting recession is mind boggling it’s like they crave it or something .

It’s a strange mindset.

While first time buyers might dream of getting a better house for their money, I don't think anyone wants a mega recession.

The strange mindset on this thread are those who seem convinced that everything is fine because house prices are currently still strong - despite the fact that in the past house prices drops have lagged far behind global economic trends.