SozBbz wrote: » Some sort of incentive for FTBs to buy 2nd hand homes in need of renovations instead of targeting all incentives at new builds. Lets reinvest in our older stock too.
Top Dog wrote: » That's something I'd personally love to see. Not everyone wants to live in a sprawling estate. And the only new builds you'll see in the countryside are private or self builds - in other words won't be for sale once completed.
hmmm wrote: » Everything depends on when a vaccine appears. If we have a best case and some limited supply starts appearing towards the end of this year with it likely to be available for all in 2021, I expect a demand surge and choked supply. If a vaccine falters, and this economic calamity looks like continuing longer term, all bets are off. The first vaccines are due to report phase 3 indicators around the end of August - that's when we will know. I suspect the supply issues will be in 18 months to 2 years. Builders might be completing builds, but they aren't planning much in the way of new builds while this uncertainty continues.
wassie wrote: » RTE Reporting that The number of new mortgage approvals in May was nearly 62% lower than the same month last year. According to the Banking and Payments Federation Ireland, the decrease was not unexpected given the scale of the lockdown and physical restrictions due to Covid-19. In total 1,879 new mortgages were approved by lenders here in May - a decrease of 14.6% compared to a month earlier. But compared to May of last year the volume was nearly 62% lower. At €442 million the overall value of the mortgages approved dropped nearly 16% between April and May, and 61% compared to May of 2019. and further in the Independant "Our strong message to would-be borrowers, whose income and employment circumstances have not been impacted by the current pandemic, and who meet normal lending criteria, is to actively proceed with their applications," Mr Hayes said. Move along...nothing to see here...:eek:
Hubertj wrote: » I would have thought the mortgage applications/approvals would have been worse than this given what is going on. What would be more insightful is the number of applications vs approvals and % decrease (or increase ðŸ˜)
JimmyVik wrote: I think that point is huge. We were undersupplied already. supply is not going to increase anytime soon. So the only price pressure can be demand dropping. For demand to drop the economy will be in a bad state altogether.
Villa05 wrote: » How does the price fair when Demand is greater than supply, but that demand cannot afford current prices and even more so current rents. Does the state have to house people at the highest market rate as appears to be policy If the state has to bailout everyone, who will be bailing out the state What the end game here?
TheSheriff wrote: » Logical, and I agree. Expectations are high that a vaccine will be with us year end. I know several companies now have all R&D resources devoted to this (due to the cash-cow its going to be; several billion doses required). Supply chains have already been established and all eyes are on Phase 3 results. The lack of supply remains the curve ball. If we didn't have the demand levels we had previously, I would fully expect to be knocking 100k off any would be house in Dublin; but without supply, I am not sure if I see this happening.
19233974 wrote: » lets be honest, we wont have a vaccine until around this time next year at absolute best and all going well. Speak to any expert who dosent have a vested interest in the development and they will tell you as much. A vaccine by the end of the year is pie in the sky stuff. The real test will be how big and how well we manage the 2nd, 3rd waves etc.
TheSheriff wrote: » Not to derail the thread, but I disagree with you here. There is serious resources being directed towards the development of this vaccine, as the first out the gate will likely win the market and maintain market share going forward for years to come with contracts with global payers. Accelerated timelines all round, huge pressure on pharma employees to deliver results. Going by the attitude of the general public, I also think all bets are off if we get positive phase 3 results; if people know a vaccine is coming, it will likely be business as usual, whether it available today or next year.
TheSheriff wrote: » Going by the attitude of the general public, I also think all bets are off if we get positive phase 3 results; if people know a vaccine is coming, it will likely be business as usual, whether its available today or next year.
Villa05 wrote: » How does the price fair when Demand is greater than supply, but that demand cannot afford current prices and even more so current rents. Does the state have to house people at the highest market rate as appears to be policy
SozBbz wrote: » I completely agree - knowing theres an end in sight versus not would be completely transformative. Once a vaccine has been deemed safe and effective (despite the logistical challenges of actually rolling it out) I think you'll see confidence start to reemerge. Its the uncertainty of how long Covid will be around, will there be a 2nd/3rd + waves, how will we cope during next winter with flu etc that makes everything feel so risky. A vaccine would signal an end point, even if it takes time to get to that end point. The resources going into this are unparalleled. I heard Luke O'Neill on PT saying he expected we'd hear news on a vaccine in the next 2/3 months. I can't think what vested interest he has. The property market, the stock market, the banking system, our economies generally are built on confidence. Covid has undermined our confidence in life as normal and as of now its still out of our control, but a vaccine would change all that.
TheSheriff wrote: » Yes, this is the golden goose of our generation for pharma shareholders. Whichever pharma company gets there first will generate massive profits for many years to come - there is considerable resources being put into this as mentioned. Not to delve into my worklife too much, but there are already supply chains in place for some of the bigger companies. Money has changed hands, contracts locked in - there is anticipation of positive efficacy outcomes will be there soon. It'll be a big pay day for whomever gets there first. Europe approved Remdesevir today (Note; not a vaccine), while not news in itself, whats important here is the speed at which this was recommended for approval, it noted in the article submission occurred on the 5th of June, so approx 20 days to approve a drug. As I said, considerable resources....... A vaccine could be with us sooner than we think, but I would argue that the mere notion of a vaccine being available (with positive clinical outcomes) will have a far greater impact on the property market than physically being immunized.
TheSheriff wrote: » .......... A vaccine could be with us sooner than we think, but I would argue that the mere notion of a vaccine being available (with positive clinical outcomes) will have a far greater impact on the property market than physically being immunized.
TheSheriff wrote: » Yes, this is the golden goose of our generation for pharma shareholders. Whichever pharma company gets there first will generate massive profits for many years to come - there is considerable resources being put into this as mentioned. Not to delve into my worklife too much, but there are already supply chains in place for some of the bigger companies. Money has changed hands, contracts locked in - there is anticipation of positive efficacy outcomes will be there soon. It'll be a big pay day for whomever gets there first. Europe approved Remdesevir today (Note; not a vaccine), while not news in itself, whats important here is the speed at which this was recommended for approval, it noted in the article submission occurred on the 5th of June, so approx 20 days to approve a drug. As I said, considerable resources....... (Can't post the link but its on the European Medicines Agency website). A vaccine could be with us sooner than we think, but I would argue that the mere notion of a vaccine being available (with positive clinical outcomes) will have a far greater impact on the property market than physically being immunized.
Augeo wrote: » Could you detail what that impact might be? I'm baffled as to what you are alluding to, to be honest.
TheSheriff wrote: » Market sentiment, as outlined by another poster. Right now we have no idea how Covid will play out long term, and its undoubtedly impacting the sentiment of consumers who are buying houses (myself included). If a vaccine were announced tomorrow, it would go along way to alleviate my concerns that the house I buy today will be worth considerably less in the near future.
TheSheriff wrote: » I would also be expecting things to get difficult for would be FTBers (myself included!). I think supply is going to be seriously choked over the coming year as a result of credit being cut off for many; at the same time there are large sectors which are completely unaffected by CV-19 and will likely be able to get access to credit, thereby competing for what stock is available.
hmmm wrote: » A vaccine means the end of social distancing, and a reopening of sectors which are currently closed. It'll take some time before the economy recovers, but I expect we'll probably see massive stimulus being launched by governments & central banks at the same time. You're going to see a huge wave of investment to prepare for a re-opening. The other issue I can see is that for those who have managed to hang on to a job, they are building up hefty extra deposits as there hasn't been all that much to spend it on. It's hard to know how things will go, but as we expect the first phase 3 vaccine indicators to arrive probably around end of August at the earliest (that's the date I heard in a interview with the lead Oxford scientist), if I was an FTB I'd make sure I have everything lined up by that date so I'm in a position to potentially make an offer. Not saying that's the right time to buy, but you don't want to be faffing around collecting documentation if the market suddenly takes a turn.
Augeo wrote: » ............. I'd fear a vaccine is years away.
Padre_Pio wrote: » Demand is not people who want a house but can't afford one.
brisan wrote: » Ah no ,lads reckon it will be here before the end of the year and house prices and rents will keep going up and the economy will get back to normal overnight Although the owners and investors in INTU might disagree
TheSheriff wrote: » I don't think anyone really thinks house prices and rents will keep going up to be fair........ its clear that pre-Covid we were at peak affordability.
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