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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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brisan

SozBbz wrote: »

It does it they are then locked in to a low rent because they reduced their ask during Covid.

Its the classic law of unintended consequences.

They are locked into market rates
If a landlord reduces rent from say 2k to 1600 thats a 400 drop.
So over 12 months that's 4800
By leaving the apt sitting there for 3 months he has lost 6k
Its only worth money if he leases it out
I know he is thinking eventually he will make money if he leaves it at 2k ,but he has no guarantee when, if ever prices will go back to their previous level

Graham

SozBbz wrote: »

Thats not the scenario we're talking about here though.

Spotted that just after posting SozBbz so removed it as out of context

SozBbz

Graham wrote: »

Guidance from the RTB on the subject:

Reviewing the Rent and Notices of Rent Review During the Emergency Period

Emphasis mine.

Source

Thats not the scenario we're talking about here though. We're talking about Landlords commencing new tenancies at a lower rate than say Feb 2020, which it seems many are reluctant to do.

Its different when there was a previously established pattern of paying X rent (as set out in a lease) and then a temporary arrangement is made. If you start on X-20% for example, I can see how a LL might be wary of ever moving away from that number.

Donald Trump

Perhaps they could structure the rent cap so that if the rates decrease then they be be increased back up to the previous high watermark at a higher annual rate of increase.

But there would obviously have to be genuine previous watermarks i.e. have to have been occupied at that rate for a full year.

SozBbz

brisan wrote: »

I would say a lot of people struggling to pay rent would disagree
Of those 3000 only 199 are 2 beds below 2000
The rent cap does not stop landlords reducing their rent

It does it they are then locked in to a low rent because they reduced their ask during Covid.

Its the classic law of unintended consequences.

Claw Hammer

brisan wrote: »

I would say a lot of people struggling to pay rent would disagree
Of those 3000 only 199 are 2 beds below 2000

If rents came down due to a release of property what complaint would they have? The rent cap is keeping rents up now instead of holding them down. You are talking about the units advertised. What about the units kept idle because of the rent ban. If those 3000 (any of them) brought their asking prices down there would be a ripple effect across the market.
Rent caps have never worked anywhere. They are a sticking plaster solution and should never be kept longer than necessary.

Villa05

OwlsZat wrote:

Dublin is awash with luxury, short stay and expensive build to let apartments. Literally, every type of housing that doesnâ€™t help a housing crisis. I would have serious questions around how this could happen. It's as if we didn't have a Government trying to fix this problem. Worse the Green Party campaigned on housing reform yet there is nothing on it in the new program for Government. It appears to be Fine Gael policy to ignore the issue and I can't for the life of me understand why. Anyways, there is an enjoyable irony in how all the sectors they pushed are now in total disarray.

Again market will only build for where the money is. Only earners in the top 20% can afford to buy in Dublin. Building to market only fill these needs not the countries need

Assetbacked wrote:

At the same time, the risk associated with a market crash is to these investors and the Irish people are insulated. The question is whether the government bends over to the lobbying, which will take the form of "without institutional investors, the properties would not have otherwise been built". That's a favourite line they use when lobbying the government in order to obtain long term lease arrangements at crazy levels of rent for social tenants.

Did you read the article, its shocking,
The developers are going to investors armed with long term state leases worth 3 times the cost of building and the state is responsible for maintenance

It's a win win for investors with all the risk on the taxpayer

brisan

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The rent cap and eviction ban should be lifted now to get movement back. May of the new builds are not being let because the owners don't want to be locked into the rent cap if they agree a low rent. The rent cap has had its day and should go.

I would say a lot of people struggling to pay rent would disagree
Of those 3000 only 199 are 2 beds below 2000
The rent cap does not stop landlords reducing their rent

Claw Hammer

The rent cap and eviction ban should be lifted now to get movement back. May of the new builds are not being let because the owners don't want to be locked into the rent cap if they agree a low rent. The rent cap has had its day and should go.

c.p.w.g.w

19233974 wrote: »

or they could just sell them to re-coup their costs, that would go a nice way towards fixing that supply issue!

Ah now...stop taking sense...this is Ireland & Property

amacca

19233974 wrote: »

or they could just sell them to re-coup their costs, that would go a nice way towards fixing that supply issue!

if only

19233974

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

The owners of these apartments will be soon looking for a government handout to cover their costs

or they could just sell them to re-coup their costs, that would go a nice way towards fixing that supply issue!

ngunners

Augeo wrote: »

Indeed, built for corporate lets, not AirB&B etc.
From a government viewpoint with all the corporate stuff going on in that neck of the woods, accommodation to support it is/was needed.

The stock is now there and will no doubt be used for something if and when required. Having them there is far better then not IMO.

What does this even mean? What will they be used for? By whom?

Wouldn't 'if and when required' be right now, in the midst of a housing crisis?

OwlsZat

brisan wrote: »

3002 properties to rent as at 12.44
As I said earlier probably considerably more if you facto in many of these have multiple apartments to let

No doubt there is far more but it's a significant landmark deserving of a national paper headline. They could include some ironic rhetoric around how the housing crisis is fixed. :pac:

c.p.w.g.w

brisan wrote: »

3002 properties to rent as at 12.44
As I said earlier probably considerably more if you facto in many of these have multiple apartments to let

The owners of these apartments will be soon looking for a government handout to cover their costs

brisan

OwlsZat wrote: »

Is today the day we hit 3000 properties available for rent in Dublin? Only 18 more to go to break the landmark number up. 3000 represents a doubling from the 1500 properties available in February.

The paid advertising on the daft search page tells more of the story. The first ad is for the Capital Docks Residence. It's a stunning development at the mouth of the harbour built on the old U2 tower foundations. I was watching it for prices before JP Morgan bought it outright during the build before leasing it back to Kennedy Wilson for 20 years. Apartments range from 3k to 4k. I've been down around it a few times, appears a a ghost town to me with a very low occupancy rate. It's a good Kennedy Wilson still have plenty money to splash on the No1 daft advertising space. Bodes well for it sitting almost idle for quite some time.

The 2nd ad belongs to Quayside Quarter on North Wall Quay. I know nothing of the development but am interested they are advertising that you can get 4 weeks rent free on taking a lease. Only downside I see is that apartments range from 2.4k to 3k thereafter. Almost makes Capital Docks seem like good value. However, bear in mind this is down from 3.5k in Jan this year.

At ad No3 you'll find Opus Living Hanover Quay. Purposely built for the short stay holiday market complete with key card entry on the main door. Like the other two developments it's very swish. Obviously, as it's charging 2.9k for an apartment all the way up to 3.6k for house. I know a couple living in this development on a fraction of that but on a short-term lease. Only time will tell what will happen to these developments.

Lastly, the 4th ad on the first page is for Clancy Quay again by Kennedy Wilson. Again, I've friends staying there. Advertised prices have been falling steadily over the last months and now sit at 1.8 to 2k per apartment. The apartments are decent without being amazing. They have 3 more blocks shortly being added to the development so it will be interesting to see how that situation develops.

Dublin is awash with luxury, short stay and expensive build to let apartments. Literally, every type of housing that doesn’t help a housing crisis. I would have serious questions around how this could happen. It's as if we didn't have a Government trying to fix this problem. Worse the Green Party campaigned on housing reform yet there is nothing on it in the new program for Government. It appears to be Fine Gael policy to ignore the issue and I can't for the life of me understand why. Anyways, there is an enjoyable irony in how all the sectors they pushed are now in total disarray.

3002 properties to rent as at 12.44
As I said earlier probably considerably more if you facto in many of these have multiple apartments to let

[Deleted User]

Ozark707 wrote: »

I guess some of them would have been corporate lets? If so you would have to think those same corporates will have copped on to the state of the market and will be demanding a huge haircut on those prices.

Indeed, built for corporate lets, not AirB&B etc.
From a government viewpoint with all the corporate stuff going on in that neck of the woods, accommodation to support it is/was needed.

The stock is now there and will no doubt be used for something if and when required. Having them there is far better then not IMO.

19233974

GocRh wrote: »

It's really appalling that DCC approved their design for the new buildings. Completely out of character with the rest of the development, and a real eyesore on the view to Phoenix Park from the IMMA grounds.
They could have at least chosen a more neutral colour.

It was design and build by John Paul construction, so i imagine the design brief was "lets build them for as cheap and nasty as possible". An absolute eye sore is right and an appalling planning decision. But sure what do you expect for 3k per month!

GocRh

OwlsZat wrote: »

They older blocks they bought from NAMA at a fraction of the build cost. When they had the chance to build themselves, they told us what they really thought of the Irish public. Ultra basic box apts which they charge a fortune for. They really do take us for clowns.

It's really appalling that DCC approved their design for the new buildings. Completely out of character with the rest of the development, and a real eyesore on the view to Phoenix Park from the IMMA grounds.
They could have at least chosen a more neutral colour.

OwlsZat

19233974 wrote: »

the new clancy quay apts are absolutely awful looking too, its like they just couldn't be arsed anymore even putting an iota of effort into the design. Interesting walking past and looking at rows of apartments fitted out in generic bland decor, complete with clocks on the walls in the exact same position in each apartment.

They older blocks they bought from NAMA at a fraction of the build cost. When they had the chance to build themselves, they told us what they really thought of the Irish public. Ultra basic box apts which they charge a fortune for. They really do take us for clowns.

Hubertj

ngunners wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/programme-for-government-wrong-to-put-faith-in-private-builders-1.4286542

This article is a great read, and a clear explanation of the government's role in exacerbating the housing crisis.

Unfortunately,the programme for government is a continuation of failed policies.

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” - Albert Einstein

Interesting article. 1 thing I don’t understand is the reference to low standard builds - I thought 1 reason for high costs was the very high standards required when building apartments? I think other more knowledgeable posters on this thread referred to it in the past.

Assetbacked

At the same time, the risk associated with a market crash is to these investors and the Irish people are insulated. The question is whether the government bends over to the lobbying, which will take the form of "without institutional investors, the properties would not have otherwise been built". That's a favourite line they use when lobbying the government in order to obtain long term lease arrangements at crazy levels of rent for social tenants.

19233974

Clancy quay is 246 new apartments coming to the market! Those rental prices are absolutely outrageous, no wonder people have been stuck in a perpetual rental trap with these international investors completely distorting the market.

Edit: the new clancy quay apts are absolutely awful looking too, its like they just couldn't be arsed anymore even putting an iota of effort into the design. Interesting walking past and looking at rows of apartments fitted out in generic bland decor, complete with clocks on the walls in the exact same position in each apartment.

Ozark707

brisan wrote: »

iF you take into consideration that some of the adverts have multiple properties for rent I would say the 3000 mark has been well exceeded.
How people pay some of those rents is beyond me.
You would get a good mortgage for 2k a month

I guess some of them would have been corporate lets? If so you would have to think those same corporates will have copped on to the state of the market and will be demanding a huge haircut on those prices.

ngunners

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/programme-for-government-wrong-to-put-faith-in-private-builders-1.4286542

This article is a great read, and a clear explanation of the government's role in exacerbating the housing crisis.

Unfortunately,the programme for government is a continuation of failed policies.

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” - Albert Einstein

Ozark707

OwlsZat wrote: »

Is today the day we hit 3000 properties available for rent in Dublin? Only 18 more to go to break the landmark number up. 3000 represents a doubling from the 1500 properties available in February.

The paid advertising on the daft search page tells more of the story. The first ad is for the Capital Docks Residence. It's a stunning development at the mouth of the harbour built on the old U2 tower foundations. I was watching it for prices before JP Morgan bought it outright during the build before leasing it back to Kennedy Wilson for 20 years. Apartments range from 3k to 4k. I've been down around it a few times, appears a a ghost town to me with a very low occupancy rate. It's a good Kennedy Wilson still have plenty money to splash on the No1 daft advertising space. Bodes well for it sitting almost idle for quite some time.

The 2nd ad belongs to Quayside Quarter on North Wall Quay. I know nothing of the development but am interested they are advertising that you can get 4 weeks rent free on taking a lease. Only downside I see is that apartments range from 2.4k to 3k thereafter. Almost makes Capital Docks seem like good value. However, bear in mind this is down from 3.5k in Jan this year.

At ad No3 you'll find Opus Living Hanover Quay. Purposely built for the short stay holiday market complete with key card entry on the main door. Like the other two developments it's very swish. Obviously, it is as it's charging 2.9k for an apartment all the way up to 3.6k for house. I know a couple living in this development on a fraction of that but on a short-term lease. Only, time will tell what will happen to these developments.

Lastly, the 4th ad on the first page is for Clancy Quay by Kennedy Wilson. Again, I've friends staying there. Advertised prices have falling over the last months and now sit at 1.8 to 2k per apartment. The apartments are decent without being amazing. They have 3 more blocks shortly being added to the development so it will be interesting to see how that situation develops.

Dublin is awash with luxury, short stay and expensive build to let apartments. Literally, every type of housing that doesn’t help a housing crisis. I would have serious questions around how this could happen. It's as if we didn't have a Government trying to fix this problem. Worse the Green Party campaigned on housing reform yet there is nothing on it in the new program for Government. It appears to be Fine Gael policy to ignore the issue and I can't for the life of me understand why. Anyways, there is an enjoyable irony in how all the sectors they pushed are now in total disarray.
ary and build to let apartments. The difference between Ireland and say Germany where build to let is popular is the prices. The prices here

Very good synopsis of what is happening at the top end of the market. I am guessing those 3 new blocks in Clancy Quay are going to bring over 100 apts to the market (from what I can tell by passing them). Quayside Quarter have been offering the one month free since pre Covid I think. I guess you can bargain them down further. Interesting to know that STL's in those places are going cheap at the moment, better that having them empty I suppose.

brisan

OwlsZat wrote: »

Is today the day we hit 3000 properties available for rent in Dublin? Only 18 more to go to break the landmark number up. 3000 represents a doubling from the 1500 properties available in February.

The paid advertising on the daft search page tells more of the story. The first ad is for the Capital Docks Residence. It's a stunning development at the mouth of the harbour built on the old U2 tower foundations. I was watching it for prices before JP Morgan bought it outright during the build before leasing it back to Kennedy Wilson for 20 years. Apartments range from 3k to 4k. I've been down around it a few times, appears a a ghost town to me with a very low occupancy rate. It's a good Kennedy Wilson still have plenty money to splash on the No1 daft advertising space. Bodes well for it sitting almost idle for quite some time.

The 2nd ad belongs to Quayside Quarter on North Wall Quay. I know nothing of the development but am interested they are advertising that you can get 4 weeks rent free on taking a lease. Only downside I see is that apartments range from 2.4k to 3k thereafter. Almost makes Capital Docks seem like good value. However, bear in mind this is down from 3.5k in Jan this year.

At ad No3 you'll find Opus Living Hanover Quay. Purposely built for the short stay holiday market complete with key card entry on the main door. Like the other two developments it's very swish. Obviously, it is as it's charging 2.9k for an apartment all the way up to 3.6k for house. I know a couple living in this development on a fraction of that but on a short-term lease. Only, time will tell what will happen to these developments.

Lastly, the 4th ad on the first page is for Clancy Quay by Kennedy Wilson. Again, I've friends staying there. Advertised prices have falling over the last months and now sit at 1.8 to 2k per apartment. The apartments are decent without being amazing. They have 3 more blocks shortly being added to the development so it will be interesting to see how that situation develops.

Dublin is awash with luxury, short stay and expensive build to let apartments. Literally, every type of housing that doesn’t help a housing crisis. I would have serious questions around how this could happen. It's as if we didn't have a Government trying to fix this problem. Worse the Green Party campaigned on housing reform yet there is nothing on it in the new program for Government. It appears to be Fine Gael policy to ignore the issue and I can't for the life of me understand why. Anyways, there is an enjoyable irony in how all the sectors they pushed are now in total disarray.
ary and build to let apartments. The difference between Ireland and say Germany where build to let is popular is the prices. The prices here

iF you take into consideration that some of the adverts have multiple properties for rent I would say the 3000 mark has been well exceeded.
How people pay some of those rents is beyond me.
You would get a good mortgage for 2k a month
500,000 would cost less than 2k over 30 years

OwlsZat

Is today the day we hit 3000 properties available for rent in Dublin? Only 18 more to go to break the landmark number up. 3000 represents a doubling from the 1500 properties available in February.

The paid advertising on the daft search page tells more of the story. The first ad is for the Capital Docks Residence. It's a stunning development at the mouth of the harbour built on the old U2 tower foundations. I was watching it for prices before JP Morgan bought it outright during the build before leasing it back to Kennedy Wilson for 20 years. Apartments range from 3k to 4k. I've been down around it a few times, appears a ghost town to me with a very low occupancy rate. It's a thing good Kennedy Wilson still have plenty money to splash on the No1 daft advertising space. Bodes well for it sitting almost idle for quite some time.

The 2nd ad belongs to Quayside Quarter on North Wall Quay. I know nothing of the development but am interested they are advertising that you can get 4 weeks rent free on taking a lease. Only downside I see is that apartments range from 2.4k to 3k thereafter. Almost makes Capital Docks seem like good value. However, bear in mind this is down from 3.5k in Jan this year.

At ad No3 you'll find Opus Living Hanover Quay. Purposely built for the short stay holiday market complete with key card entry on the main door. Like the other two developments it's very swish. Obviously, as it's charging 2.9k for an apartment all the way up to 3.6k for house. I know a couple living in this development on a fraction of that but on a short-term lease. Only time will tell what will happen to these developments.

Lastly, the 4th ad on the first page is for Clancy Quay again by Kennedy Wilson. Again, I've friends staying there. Advertised prices have been falling steadily over the last months and now sit at 1.8 to 2k per apartment. The apartments are decent without being amazing. They have 3 more blocks shortly being added to the development so it will be interesting to see how that situation develops.

Dublin is awash with luxury, short stay and expensive build to let apartments. Literally, every type of housing that doesn’t help a housing crisis. I would have serious questions around how this could happen. It's as if we didn't have a Government trying to fix this problem. Worse the Green Party campaigned on housing reform yet there is nothing on it in the new program for Government. It appears to be Fine Gael policy to ignore the issue and I can't for the life of me understand why. Anyways, there is an enjoyable irony in how all the sectors they pushed are now in total disarray.

19233974

JimmyVik wrote: »

Im living in a granny flat at the moment.
I was trying to get out and into an apartment in the city but they all seem to be short term lets that replied to me.
Now im thinking of buying either an apartment or a house.
Just want prices to fall before I pull the trigger. It just doesnt feel right at the moment but if prices fall it may.
Id love to get out of this granny flat, but it will do if prices dont fall.
Maybe if there is a fall of 10% i will pull the trigger

I imagine this is a lot of landlords/ Air BnB folk trying to weather the storm by getting people in short term to keep the money coming in and hope for a recovery in the rental market. While avoiding longer leases and problems with tenants etc.

I imagine that wont be long changing when the effect on the rental market persists.

JimmyVik

Thanks for the advice guys, but I am not really looking for advice on a message board

No offense meant.

I wouldnt really expect anyone to believe i know what im talking about when I dish out advice either.
Reminds me of a friend of mine who had her 4th child and was crying (as is normal after child birth in a lot of cases) and saying this one was keeping her awake almost 24 hours. In chimes the woman who had just 1 child,a 1 year old, and she starts giving my friend advice on what to feed, what blankets to use, when to change etc. All my friend needed was a sounding board. The other woman got offended when i said that and asked her to just put her arm around her, that she has been there, done that and bought the t-shirt.... im rambling.

What im trying to say is.
Even though I dont own a property to live in. I have bought/sold and renovated quite a few with my Dad and brother over the years. Just never sunk my money into one I planned to keep for myself.
Im old enough and grey enough to be able to figure things out.
At this stage in my life I think im smart enough to figure out things myself.
Im also smart enough to know that anything to do with property is a guessing game, even for economists with 50 years experience, never mind for me or anyone on a message board. We are all just talking. Our advice carries no wait, but its fun to talk about it.
I have my finances in order. Now to decide what my triggers are to implement any of my plans.
At one stage I was going to buy into investment property but after researching that its so stacked against the landlord, its not worth doing. Dangerous game with the government here.
My plan is to retire in another 10 years at the ripe old age of 50.
Have to decide how to tune my investments to achieve that. And I think im doing quite well and am on target.
The only reason really I want to buy property now is just to diversify and get a bit more space for the kids to stay over.
When I do decide (or when my trigger point is reached) what my next move will be, i'll be sure to let you know