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|June 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT ... 1981-2010 average is 13.6 C.

2. Predict the MAX ... NormaL is set at 26.5

3. Predict the MIN ... NormaL is set at 2.0

4. Predict the PRC as a percentage of normal.

5. Predict the SUN as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS -- How much rain will fall in the last third of June (21st to 30th)? Your answer should be in percentage of normal format, actual to be determined from values after 20 and 30 days. (if you give an answer in mm, I will convert it to a percentage from this formula -- one third of the average of June and July amounts at the eleven stations used).

The usual late penalties apply, starting 0300h Monday 1st of June.

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Tae laidir

Tae laidir wrote: »

Tae laidir __________ 14.4 _ 28.8 _ 3.2 _ 62 _ 118 __ 60

Change to 35%

mrskinner

Please change my #6 estimate to 85%.

Grma

Skinner

Rikand

I'm still not sure I understand the question lol

My thinking was :: If 100ml normally falls between 21-30 june every other year on average, then I am guessing that 50% of that total will fall. as in, 50 ml.

If that's correct, leave my answer as 50%

if its incorrect and you mean that if 100ml falls between 1-30 june this year, then just leave me on 50% anyway because I'm superstitious that way

And if both of those are incorrect, you can spell it out to me using pictograms or sock puppets or whatever you deem fit, but still leave my answer as 50% :pac:

pauldry

I'm leaving mine the same as before coz I'm too confused

M.T. Cranium

Okay, one more try on my part to clarify what we are looking for. It's the same concept as we use for the monthly contest, percentage of normal rainfall, only we are applying it to a ten day period. The normal amount for that ten day period will be one third of the normal amount for the month of June, adjusted slightly to the trend between June and July. So let's say the normal amount in June is 60 mm and in July 64 mm, then that average is 62 mm, we are looking at a period closer to June than July so I would adjust to 61 mm. Then one third of that is 20.3 mm. So that establishes a normal, the actual amount that falls (average for eleven locations) might be 15 mm which is about 74% of the normal amount.

The seven-day ag reports that I use to generate weekly updates has a percentage of normal feature so I plan to track that to work out the results, both in terms of what is normal and what the percentage is.

So basically we are predicting how wet or dry the last ten days will be, relative to the amount that would fall averaged over 30 years in that part of June. If that explanation prompts anyone to change their guess, let me know.

Somehow I lost track of time these past few days and just realized the May contest could be scored since about 1100h, we've had some people renovating our kitchen this week and so that's my excuse (not sure what cause and effect mechanism is involved, but it's all I have).

Going over to May now to clean that up.

pauldry

Ok then MT. Just to bring on the onset of the hottest Summer ever I'll change mine to 160%

Now there'll definitely be 45%

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for June 2020

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Bonus __ confirmed

Appledrop ____________ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 1.9 _ 065 _ 090 __ 80% _ ed

BLIZZARD7 ___________ 15.7 _ 30.7 _ 1.0 _ 045 _ 130 __ 10% _ th

waterways ____________14.7 _ 29.0 _ 2.1 _ 055 _ 135 __ 59% _

Dacogawa ____________ 14.6 _ 28.8 _ 1.6 _ 089 _ 092 __ 80% _ ed

KIndred Spirit _________ 14.5 _ 30.0 _ 2.5 _ 070 _ 122 __ 70% _ ed

Rikand _______ (-3) ___ 14.5 _ 30.0 _ 1.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 50% _ ok

Tae laidir _____________ 14.4 _ 28.8 _ 3.2 _ 062 _ 118 __ 35% _ ed

Mrskinner _____ (-1) ___ 14.3 _ 28.6 _ 1.7 _ 065 _ 126 __ 85% _ ed

Artane2002 ___________ 14.3 _ 28.3 _ 1.4 _ 065 _ 112 __ 45% _ ed

sryanbruen ___________ 14.1 _ 27.9 _ 1.0 _ 070 _ 105 __ 25% __th

dasa29 _______________14.0 _ 28.5 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 30% __th

200motels ____________ 14.0 _ 27.6 _ 1.1 _ 071 _ 103 __ 88% __ed (pm)

___ Con Sensus _______ 14.0 _ 28.4 _ 2.0 _ 075 _ 111 __ 50%

Sunflower3____________ 13.9 _ 28.0 _ 2.1 _ 075 _ 115 __ 80% __th

Jpmarn _______________13.9 _ 26.5 _ 0.5 _ 085 _ 115 __105% __ok

MrStonewall ___________13.8 _ 29.4 _ 1.6 _ 074 _ 121 __ 30%

DOCARCH ____________ 13.8 _ 27.1 _ 1.8 _ 068 _ 121 __ 30% __ed

Joe Public ____________ 13.7 _ 29.4 _ 3.4 _ 101 _ 130 __ 89% __th

john mac _____ (-2) ____13.7 _ 28.4 _ 1.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 40% __th

Adam240610 __________13.7 _ 27.2 _ 3.3 _ 078 _ 110 __ 130% _ed

___ NormaL __________ 13.6 _ 27.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __100%

Bsal _________________13.5 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 075 _ 110 __ 20% __ th

M.T. Cranium _________ 13.4 _ 26.5 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 110 __105% __me

Pauldry ______________ 13.0 _ 27.7 _ 3.0 _ 150 _ 101 __160% __ed

Tazio _______ (-6) _____12.6 _ 25.5 _ 4.5 _ 085 _ 100 __ 57% __th

mickger844posts _______12.5 _ 28.1 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 110 __ 30% __ok

___________________________________________________________

For now these are the entries, the code at the end is the status of the bonus question -- ed means edited in a post, th means post asking for updates thanked, guess assumed to be okay, ok means posted to confirm okay, me means me, and no entry means a p.m. is on the way giving those folks a heads up available to end of 5th. Anyone already shown as having considered this can still change up until then also.

Will perhaps edit consensus value for that part if necessary.

DOCARCH

Hi MT

I am changing mine to 30%....I have edited my entry.

dacogawa

dacogawa wrote: »

Dacogawa _________ 14.6 _ 28.8 _ 1.6 _ 89 _ 92 __ 33%

If not too late could I change it to 80%? Thanks!

mickger844posts

No change from me

Jpmarn

No change in the bonus question as I went for slightly above rainfall for the end of the month at 105%.

M.T. Cranium

Meanwhile noted a MAX of 27.1 on the first at Newport, not quite matched on the 2nd before the warm spell ended.

Joe Public

I saw 3C at Ballyhaise 6am this morning

M.T. Cranium

After first week of June ...

IMT 12.7, 0.2 below normal.

MAX 27.1 on 1st (Newport)

MIN around 2.5 to 3 (several locations had hourly obs of 3 C this morning).

PRC 29% of normal.

SUN 109.3% of normal (656/600).

For the bonus question, have worked out the normal value for 21-30 June. It is 24 mm on average at the eleven stations, or a total of 264, this was derived from June normals and no adjustment needed since July overall has an identical per diem rainfall (with the extra day it has very slightly higher averages overall but not at each station). So when we come to validating the bonus, I will track the total rainfall at the eleven stations and compare it to 264 mm. Then I will cross-reference the reports in the seven-day ag report to make sure we have a consistent result. You can tell from this that the June average is around 72 mm, it would be in the 60s except for Valentia being somewhat wetter than the rest. Possibly the seven day reports have some daily average values embedded that we can't access, which is why I plan to cross-reference, if it appears to me that their normals are significantly different over the ten days, then I will adjust.

Another note on the bonus, with changes people made, the consensus shifted to 58% from the 50% shown in the table but I can't edit that now, so will hope to remember that when scoring Con Sensus later on.

Joe Public

2.5C at Mt. Dillon yesterday

appledrop

Average Mean temperature Dublin Airport only 11.4 so far.

Where was I going with my 15.8 prediction. I was dreaming!

M.T. Cranium

It's not as bad as you thought, the IMT is an average of five stations all of which are warmer than Dublin. This is the update for week two ...

IMT is now 12.9 C, the second week averaged 13.2 which was 0.3 below normal.

MAX 27.1 and MIN 2.5

PRC is now at 50% of normal with this past week average around 70%.

SUN has fallen to 81.5% with this past week rather cloudy at only 54% of normal (322/600).

The models were showing potential for a lot of rain but are wavering on that now, still enough different scenarios on the table to support just about all forecasts (both monthly scale and the bonus question).

M.T. Cranium

Today (Sunday 21st) is the first day of our bonus question. The bulk of Saturday's rainfall event had cleared the grid by midnight although some will be measured from it at Ballyhaise, Casement and Malin Head. So the answer to our bonus lies mainly in the production of rainfall from the slow-moving frontal trough expected to be over Ireland tomorrow and Tuesday, plus some rain from today's showers and next weekend's frontal passage. At the moment I think the middle of the pack answers may fare best but with some potential for the higher end to score well.

As mentioned earlier in the month, will be tracking this based on an assumption that 24 mm per location (in our eleven station precip grid) is "normal" for the ten days. That's 2.4 mm per day and a total of 26.4 mm per day in the grid, so will give out some running totals based on percentages of 26.4 mm. Then will adjust with reference to the ag met report after seven days and noting any changes in background normals available from that source to the 30th. These adjustments are not likely to be very large.

M.T. Cranium

Report on week three and the start of the bonus rainfall ...

IMT on 13.4 after third week averaged 14.2 which was 0.2 above average.

MAX and MIN remain 27.1 and 2.5

PRC is now at 92% of normal after a wet week that averaged 176% of normal.

SUN has fallen further to 79% after another rather cloudy week at 74.5% (447/600).

BONUS ... 24.3 mm rain on 21st in the grid, about 92% of normal.

Tae laidir

Will Norma L score a famous victory?

M.T. Cranium

Maybe not ... day two of the bonus question brought 121.7 mm rain which combined with day one (24.3) leaves the total at 146.0 mm, almost three times normal so far (275% approx). Today looks rather similar so we will be well on the way to a normal outcome even if later rainfalls are sparse.

M.T. Cranium

On day three of the bonus period, 104.6 mm fell around the grid, leaving the running total at 250.6 mm which compares to the estimated normal of (3 x 26.4) 79.2 mm, now 317% of normal.

If no further rain fell, this would represent just under 95% of normal for the ten days, but as we know further rain is likely. Looking at the forecasts I could almost score this already.

The only forecasters above 150% (which I think is the very least this will achieve) is Pauldry at 160% and the only other forecast higher than my 105% (shared with JPmarn) is 130% for Adam240610. So it's almost a foregone conclusion now that ten points will be heading to Pauldry and Adam240610, nine to myself and JPmarn, and the rest of the scoring in pairs (including lowest two at zero points). Looks like eight points for 200motels and Joe Public with forecasts in the high 80's. etc ... not sure why our general bias was towards a dry end to the month but it is what it is, probably that pattern we have been in for many months with a warming trend near end of month, and warmth usually being dry? Pauldry made a pretty good edit there, must say.

(Just in case the further rain proves very slight, Pauldry does need the total to reach 132.6% to score the advertised ten points, and Adam240610 needs a bit more to guarantee ten points, the outcome must be 117.6% or higher for his chances. The two at 105% still need perhaps 2% more to edge past those in the 80s currently. These amounts (including Pauldry) seem locked in to me at this point. The only issue to be settled would be whether or not reality goes past all of our forecasts or all but one.

M.T. Cranium

Day four of the rainfall bonus period, just 12.5 mm over the grid, bringing total to 263.1 mm, about 250% of the normal for the period, and guaranteeing an outcome of at least 98% of normal in the absence of further rainfall.

I expect the outcome to be close to Pauldry's guess of 160% and possibly a bit higher.

M.T. Cranium

The delayed report on day five (I meant to post this at 0830 when I first figured out the number then I got doing something else) ... only 1.9 mm fell on the 25th (pre-midnight in case that sounds low to you), that takes us to 265.0 mm, whereas normal would be just about half of that. So we are near 200% of normal now, and have guaranteed an outcome of 100%. I would estimate day six (mostly this morning) dropped 40 mm on the grid, will confirm that in the morning. So we are actually at about 115% as you're reading this. Tomorrow will no doubt add at least 10% more to that.

M.T. Cranium

Day six of the bonus rainfall period seals the fate of all ... 45 mm additional rain for a total now of 310 mm, compared to normal value estimated to be (6 x 26.4) 158.4 mm. That means we are guaranteed an outcome of at least 120% and stand now just below 200 per cent (198). With estimates for today through Tuesday of 100 mm total for the grid, the outcome is going to surpass even Pauldry's grim estimate (ironically he's had even more locally).

Will continue to track this but the outcome seems inevitable now.

M.T. Cranium

Okay so on day seven of the bonus rainfall, 123.9 mm fell, a total of 433.9 mm which is about 240% of normal. I am able to check that against the ag met report which shows 242% for the grid. Without any further rain that would be about 170% of normal but of course it's raining hard in the north today. So we are now officially at the point where the highest forecast is going to be closest to the mark.

M.T. Cranium

Update on week four (or weak fore) and the bonus rainfall melodrama.

First the regular items ... the IMT is now on 13.8, with a rather warm week that averaged 15.1, 0.8 above normal.

MAX and MIN remain 27.1 and 2.5

PRC has reached 134% after a very wet week with 258% of normal.

SUN only 78% of normal, the past week managing only 71% (428/600).

The bonus rainfall continues to fill the bucket with another 66.9 mm in the grid, for a total now of 500.8 mm, which is about 230% of normal. This guarantees an outcome of at least 180%.

Finner Camp and Newport had over 40 mm each yesterday, but they aren't among the eleven stations that form our PRC grid, if they were, PRC would now be over 150% and the bonus would be over 300%.

M.T. Cranium

On day nine, 22.6 mm fell over the grid, bringing the total to 523.4 mm. Normal for nine days would be about 238 mm so this is around 220 per cent. Final reports on most parameters will appear tomorrow, perhaps with provisional scoring.

The July contest thread is open (on time deadline looms at 0300h).

M.T. Cranium

Here are the final numbers or estimates. Will check these tomorrow against the MS and score the contest then.

IMT 13.8 C.

MAX 27.1 MIN 2.5

PRC about 130%

SUN about 75%

The bonus rainfall added 10.4 mm to finish at 533.8 mm. Normal was estimated to be 264 mm. The outcome is about 205% of normal.

John mac

Still dont get the bonus question ..

this its the way i had it in my ikkle head;
I was taking the percentage of the months total rainfall that fell in 10 days .
so whatever the actual (not normal) total was for the month =100%
i was thinking of that 100% how much would fall in the ten days ..