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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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OwlsZat

JimmyVik wrote: »

How many are there now?

http://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

It's climbed to almost 3,000 now since this ran last almost a month ago. 20% mom growth of places for rent in the Dublin area.

[Deleted User]

Augeo wrote: »

Ah yes, indeed.

There were 1300 for rent in Dublin in late March ............. 1900 now.

JimmyVik wrote: »

How many are there now?

1900 ish

apartments, I don't know how many houses were on daft in late MArch, I just checked apartments as I wanted to see how supply would increase over the following weeks........

OwlsZat

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Theres currently 1900 properties listed on daft to rent in Dublin.

Not a big shock really half the county have moved home for covid, you cant justify playing 1000 euro + a month for a room when your employer / college is allowing you to wfh.

You've some sort of filter on. That number sounds like apartments only.

19233974

Wow didnt realise it was such an increase, no wonder the prices are dropping

PommieBast

JimmyVik wrote: »

I remember Halifaxs 5% interest current account.

In 1999 or 2000 I signed up to an Abbey National 2-year 14.5% bond, which from memory was discontinued a few weeks later. Lucky to get 1.45% these days

Of course falling interest rates meant savings were instead dumped into property, and the rest is history..

Villa05

coolshannagh28 wrote:

It is a labour intensive industry making a huge contribution to the state and employing 250000 people who are on social welfare at the moment which the government cant afford. If the industry cant remain viable when it reopens it will put a huge strain of the economy as unemployment and insolvency soars with trigger effects on the wider economy . This is the sector of the economy which will determine if Covid 19 is a passing issue or becomes a crisis .

Let the commercial property sector soak up some of that pain, they have made massive profits over the last 8 years. Stimulus will only benefit them. It would not surprise me if they were involved in said lobbying.

The 9% vat rate worked well last time, try it again. If a business is tied to a lease that is unsustainable, let it go, others will fill a void if such exists on terms that match the current economic climate

Hubertj wrote:

do you really think the only issue with the restaurant industry are rents? Way more complicated than that - there are too many restaurants in urban areas, poor management, poor service, poor quality food, insurance, rents and so on and so on

Recessions fix these issues far quicker than stimulus

SozBbz

Just checked my postbox and got 2 leaflets from mainstream Estate Agents along the lines of "properties like yours urgently required".

Seems to corroborate my assumption that 2nd hand stock coming to the market would rapidly dry up.

OwlsZat

19233974 wrote: »

Wow didnt realise it was such an increase, no wonder the prices are dropping

The restaurants and apartments are the same total oversupply given the new norm. Many companies won't bother renting office space where they have established they dont need it. Theres going to be a changing of the guard in the city. Many won't be back. This is why the talk of proping up all restaurants until 2021 must end. A good number of these will have to close as their customers migrate to pastures new.

OwlsZat

SozBbz wrote: »

Just checked my postbox and got 2 leaflets from mainstream Estate Agents along the lines of "properties like yours urgently required".

Seems to corroborate my assumption that 2nd hand stock coming to the market would rapidly dry up.

Many people will hold off making big lifestyle changes like selling the family home until they can see what their employer is planning for the future. The volume of sales fell off a cliff in May. Can't see it picking up until more job losses or certainty appear in the labour market.

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

SozBbz

OwlsZat wrote: »

The restaurants and apartments are the same total oversupply given the new norm. Many companies won't bother renting office space where they have established they dont need it. Theres going to be a changing of the guard in the city. Many won't be back. This is why the talk of propping up all restaurants until 2021 must end. A good number of these will have to close as their customers migrate to pastures new.

I think they restaurants need *some* support, but obviously not everything they're asking for.

That way, the good ones should be able to survive with a combination of some support and some custom as it comes back. Those who can't get that custom will go to the wall, as is normal in the restaurant industry.

I do think we need to be careful about what happens to our city centers post covid. I'd hate to see the city become a ghost town and everything revolving around the suburbs. We need to make our city centers civic spaces with cultural attractions and not just revolving around office and retail space.

SozBbz

OwlsZat wrote: »

Many people will hold off making big lifestyle changes like selling the family home until they can see what their employer is planning for the future. The volume of sales fell off a cliff in May. Can't see it picking up until more job losses or certainty appear in the labour market.

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

I don't see why you'd sell your house if you lost your job - not in this country, you simply go into arrears and renegotiate with your lender. Its not like people can emigrate like previous recessions.

Anyway, my point was that those hanging out for a bargain may have a while to wait and very little to choose from.

c.p.w.g.w

SozBbz wrote: »

Just checked my postbox and got 2 leaflets from mainstream Estate Agents along the lines of "properties like yours urgently required".

Seems to corroborate my assumption that 2nd hand stock coming to the market would rapidly dry up.

Should have a bit of fun with them, so how how urgently they are needed

Donald Trump

SozBbz wrote: »

Just checked my postbox and got 2 leaflets from mainstream Estate Agents along the lines of "properties like yours urgently required".

Seems to corroborate my assumption that 2nd hand stock coming to the market would rapidly dry up.

Many people who would have otherwise decided to make some life changes might decide not to do so now. Or they may decide to wait for "prices to go back up" if they anticipate a fall.

Estate agents possibly foresee a crash coming in the not-so-distant future. They need to try to get sales done now and bank that cash.

An estate agent will make money on your house selling at a low asking price. They will not make anything on a house that isn't sold when then asking price is too high.

wassie

SozBbz wrote: »

Just checked my postbox and got 2 leaflets from mainstream Estate Agents along the lines of "properties like yours urgently required".

Seems to corroborate my assumption that 2nd hand stock coming to the market would rapidly dry up.

Agents need volume (i.e. turnover) in order to make money. Commission on sales is not large enough to incentivize holding on to a property for a higher price.

The_Conductor

SozBbz wrote: »

I think they restaurants need *some* support, but obviously not everything they're asking for.

That way, the good ones should be able to survive with a combination of some support and some custom as it comes back. Those who can't get that custom will go to the wall, as is normal in the restaurant industry.

I do think we need to be careful about what happens to our city centers post covid. I'd hate to see the city become a ghost town and everything revolving around the suburbs. We need to make our city centers civic spaces with cultural attractions and not just revolving around office and retail space.

Why should restaurants get support- but not other service sector industries (or indeed, the shell-shocked public who have been locked away for the past 12-13 weeks).

If we do have a migration away from the city centre (which will be welcomed as they've made it so damn difficult to actually get in there anyway)- of course restaurants (and every other service sector company) is going to encounter difficulties. However, these existential threats- are accompanied by commensurate opportunities elsewhere- cafés and restaurants that are getting hammered with high rents in the city centre may find that opening new outlets in the suburbs, where their operating costs are lower, might, even with lower turnover, be more financially viable (not to mention rewarding for all those staff who are going to be working from home for the foreseeable future- many until the end of the year, or even longer).

Why should one particular sector get special treatment- over and above the needs of a great many other sectors?

What about all those working in filling stations- many of which may close down- if there is a seachange in transport and commuting and people choose to work from home long term? Or bookshops in the city centre. Or all the clothes shops? Or the private clinics of a great many medical and dental practitioners that are in the city centre- or any of a long and meandering list of other people.

Lots of businesses in the city centre were hurting badly- before Covid came along at all- some, such as the restaurant trade- managed to reinvent themselves early on- and opened up sidelines in doing high-end take-away and other services. Many didn't. Many didn't have any such opportunities- think of all the small local owned businesses out there.

I just fail to see why one sector deserves to be mollycoddled to the exclusion of everyone else..........

OwlsZat

wassie wrote: »

Agents need volume (i.e. turnover) in order to make money. Commission on sales is not large enough to incentivize holding on to a property for a higher price.

Thought this myself EAs must be looking over their shoulder. Sales have been greatly reduced. If I was managing a estate agents office I'd be looking at reducing staff numbers.

SozBbz

The_Conductor wrote: »

Why should restaurants get support- but not other service sector industries (or indeed, the shell-shocked public who have been locked away for the past 12-13 weeks).

If we do have a migration away from the city centre (which will be welcomed as they've made it so damn difficult to actually get in there anyway)- of course restaurants (and every other service sector company) is going to encounter difficulties. However, these existential threats- are accompanied by commensurate opportunities elsewhere- cafés and restaurants that are getting hammered with high rents in the city centre may find that opening new outlets in the suburbs, where their operating costs are lower, might, even with lower turnover, be more financially viable (not to mention rewarding for all those staff who are going to be working from home for the foreseeable future- many until the end of the year, or even longer).

Why should one particular sector get special treatment- over and above the needs of a great many other sectors?

What about all those working in filling stations- many of which may close down- if there is a seachange in transport and commuting and people choose to work from home long term? Or bookshops in the city centre. Or all the clothes shops? Or the private clinics of a great many medical and dental practitioners that are in the city centre- or any of a long and meandering list of other people.

Lots of businesses in the city centre were hurting badly- before Covid came along at all- some, such as the restaurant trade- managed to reinvent themselves early on- and opened up sidelines in doing high-end take-away and other services. Many didn't. Many didn't have any such opportunities- think of all the small local owned businesses out there.

I just fail to see why one sector deserves to be mollycoddled to the exclusion of everyone else..........

Tell me where I said the only the restaurant industry should be assisted? Its one thats particularly hard hit, they'll have been closed longer than retail and can't as a general rule switch to selling online, so I think its fair to say they're one of the worst impacted and also a big employer.

Also, theres a difference between helping industries overcome temporary shocks - this is akin to a natural disaster. The example you've cited of people who work in petrol stations being unnecessary as we move away from ICE vehicles is not comparable as thats a trend that cannot (and should not) be stopped. ICE vehicles will become obsolete. Eating out will not.

Also, go to America and see what happens when people leave the city centers in favour of the suburbs. Hint -its not pleasant. We have enough sprawl in this country without actively encouraging it. We need people living and working in the cities, keeping them vibrant and sustainable.

SozBbz

wassie wrote: »

Agents need volume (i.e. turnover) in order to make money. Commission on sales is not large enough to incentivize holding on to a property for a higher price.

Obviously, they need volume to make money.

However they're not the people who make the decision as to when a house gets put on the market. EAs will be hard up for a while, no doubt about it. Leafleting is them trying to drum up business in a market thats dried up.

[Deleted User]

SozBbz wrote: »

................... ICE vehicles will become obsolete. Eating out will not. ..............

So prop up all restaurants until we no longer need to social distance?
Prop up city centre eateries that have less customers due to WFH etc?
For how long?

Do the same for all pubs?

combat14

Augeo wrote: »

So prop up all restaurants until we no longer need to social distance?
Prop up city centre eateries that have less customers due to WFH etc?
For how long?

Do the same for all pubs?

No the country cant afford to borrow more money to waste another 1.8bn propping up non viable businesses

it is effectively only pouring money into grossly over priced commercial landlord hands

19233974

Also who do we prop up, who do we not? Whats the criteria? If restaurants get propped up then every other industry has to as well, medical centres, airlines, hotels, bars etc. etc.

It will be a nightmare scenario

Assetbacked

At the same time, social distancing nonsense cannot be required in order for these places to reopen while at the same time supports are withdrawn. It is not fair to tell a business "we're withdrawing supports to you as you can reopen but you need to ensure only a small no. of people are on the premise at any one time". If social distancing is required for another 6 months then the government absolutely must underwrite all businesses in the State.

SozBbz

Augeo wrote: »

So prop up all restaurants until we no longer need to social distance?
Prop up city centre eateries that have less customers due to WFH etc?
For how long?

Do the same for all pubs?

Again, why such absolutes? Why can't people actually read my posts and stop inferring things I categorically did not say.

I said good, viable restaurants. I did not say to prop up all restaurants. I actually said that its normal for a certain amount of restaurants to not survive purely because they're just not good enough at the best of times, and as usual, these businesses should be allowed fail.

The_Conductor

SozBbz wrote: »

Again, why such absolutes? Why can't people actually read my posts and stop inferring things I categorically did not say.

I said good, viable restaurants. I did not say to prop up all restaurants. I actually said that its normal for a certain amount of restaurants to not survive purely because they're just not good enough at the best of times, and as usual, these businesses should be allowed fail.

How do you define a 'good viable restaurant'. Surely every restraunteur out there would imagine themselves to run 'good viable restaurant(s)'.

How do you discriminate in favour of one establishment over another?

How do you allow one restaurant to fail- while simultaneously incentivise a competing establishment up the street?

It just sounds totally unworkable.

awec

Assetbacked wrote: »

At the same time, social distancing nonsense cannot be required in order for these places to reopen while at the same time supports are withdrawn. It is not fair to tell a business "we're withdrawing supports to you as you can reopen but you need to ensure only a small no. of people are on the premise at any one time". If social distancing is required for another 6 months then the government absolutely must underwrite all businesses in the State.

Social distancing is going to come under intense scrutiny once it becomes apparent that it's going to kill many businesses that otherwise would be able to survive.

You can see the start of it already with the 2m cut to 1m argument.

[Deleted User]

combat14 wrote: »

No the country cant afford to borrow more money to waste another 1.8bn propping up non viable businesses

it is effectively only pouring money into grossly over priced commercial landlord hands

The government can't afford for our hospitalilty sector to collapse either

fliball123

AdamD wrote: »

The government can't afford for our hospitalilty sector to collapse either

We have not been able to afford our public sector for the last 2 decades yet they keep paying for it

Donald Trump

Assetbacked wrote: »

At the same time, social distancing nonsense cannot be required in order for these places to reopen while at the same time supports are withdrawn. It is not fair to tell a business "we're withdrawing supports to you as you can reopen but you need to ensure only a small no. of people are on the premise at any one time". If social distancing is required for another 6 months then the government absolutely must underwrite all businesses in the State.

You post is akin to arguing that if the government shouldn't bring in more stringent fire regulations to prevent dangerous overcrowding of having 5 bunks in a small bedroom, just because the landlords would need to be compensated for the nonsense of them making less money.

If it's needed for health and safety reasons then that's life. They have to adapt and change. Let the weaker go to the wall. Others will fill the void.

Villa05

Assetbacked wrote:

If social distancing is required for another 6 months then the government absolutely must underwrite all businesses in the State.

Impossible task, sometimes you just have to take the pain. If the UK Government came close to insolvency this year, surely we are closer.

Property related costs are the highest expense for most small business. If it is too high for current conditions it needs to come down in price just like it went up in periods of high demand

Wage costs will fall as dictated by demand. Less staff for less demand. Stimulate demand by a reduced vat rate maybe, but it would be nuts to go any further.

Use stimulus to tackle the housing supply imbalance. This will help reduce rents and property prices. This will help small business in reduced rents on there premises as well as increased demand as customers spending less on accomodation will have more to spend in local employment creating business, thereby sowing the seeds of recovery

We just have to adapt, maintaining everything at January 2020 levels is not possible, creating the conditions for getting back there is

JimmyVik

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Theres currently 1900 properties listed on daft to rent in Dublin.

Not a big shock really half the county have moved home for covid, you cant justify playing 1000 euro + a month for a room when your employer / college is allowing you to wfh.

I spend about 3 weeks trying to rent somewhere in March/April.
So many listings. The ones who did get back to me were all short term rentals. And they never mentioned it in the advert. Infuriating