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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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[Deleted User]

antimatterx wrote: »

I know it's probably the backlog because of Covid, but houses/apartments in Dublin are flying up.

As in building activity?

Captainsatnav

antimatterx wrote: »

I know it's probably the backlog because of Covid, but houses/apartments in Dublin are flying up.

In price?

antimatterx

Augeo wrote: »

As in building activity?

Captainsatnav wrote: »

In price?

As in adverts on Daft.

christin

Briefing from PTSB CEO: reasonable to expect Irish house prices to fall.

"SAYS HAS SEEN SLIGHT INCREASE IN MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS IN PAST WEEK, BUT STILL AT A LOW LEVEL

* SAYS REASONABLE TO SUGGEST THAT HOUSE PRICES IN IRELAND WILL REDUCE, BUT TOO EARLY TO SAY BY HOW MUCH"

Www.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSS8N2DI052

[Deleted User]

antimatterx wrote: »

As in adverts on Daft.

Ah yes, indeed.

There were 1300 for rent in Dublin in late March ............. 1900 now.

ngunners

Augeo wrote: »

As in building activity?

Building activity too.

Villa05

19233974 wrote:

Interesting seeing the article calling for 1.8bn to be pumped into the restaurant sector. Particularly when theres not a chance of a good portion of these surviving, and then also throws up the question of who else do we prop up? hotels? airlines?

The economy is being artifically propped up at the moment but we cant keep it up forever and its only then we will see the true fall out. Hopefully a good stimulus package can help us negotiate this but ireland being ireland im not so sure

This is very worrying, I heard Jim power the author of this report on radio yesterday evening. If the restuaunt sector is so badly affected, how come they can pay this guy to compile a report and lobby for huge funds from the tax payer
Looking for 0% vat and wage subsidies to be continued into 2021 all dressed up in excercise to save jobs. They already have a low rate of vat and wages are amongst the lowest in the country

This is all BS, There main issue is extortionate leases as was seen in the Bewley fiasco. Any stimulus here will only go on propping up commercial property it will do very little to save jobs

Stimulus needs to be focused on labour intensive industries that can deliver a dividend for the state.
Propping up the very industry (commercial property) that is a drag on the economy is shooting ourselves in the foot

19233974

Augeo wrote: »

Ah yes, indeed.

There were 1300 for rent in Dublin in late March ............. 1900 now.

there already has been a slight drop in rates for room rental, friend of mine has 5 properties and for the first time in 5 years has vacant rooms and struggling let out.

A long needed correction of rental rates is coming

antimatterx

Augeo wrote: »

Ah yes, indeed.

There were 1300 for rent in Dublin in late March ............. 1900 now.

I don't think so. Prices are 100% falling.

wassie

ngunners wrote: »

Building activity too.

Current projects are busy enough finishing off. The concern will be in 6 months time. Lots of consultants I speak with are very concerned about their future pipeline of work. I don't normally like to quote headlines as it can be sensationalist, but there have been a couple of telling ones for the construction sector in the last week.

June 21 - Construction output in Ireland to suffer worst decline in EU

June 16 - Construction sector will enter recession next year - Sisk CEO

Plenty of projects getting planning approval, but these are generally valid for 5 years so if economic conditions are not right to start they can easily be mothballed.

unhappys10

antimatterx wrote: »

I don't think so. Prices are 100% falling.

They mean number of properties?

The_Conductor

Villa05 wrote: »

Who has this money, is it exclusively private individuals or does this include business accounts.

Remember in the noughties when parents were going guarantor on their kids mortgage. Are we now expecting parents to prop up property prices again with their savings until they reach the absolute max again and then crash

Its *all* deposits- it covers both private individuals and business accounts etc.

Yes- I think we all remember the 90s and Noughties- when parents went guarantor on kids mortgages. I know I celebrated the day I finally managed to satisfy BOI that I could stand on my own two feet, and to remove my parents as guarantors from my mortgage.

It is deeply unfair to expect parents to act as guarantors in this manner.

Villa05 wrote: »

Making property more expensive and choosing to take the most expensive option to provide social housing ie purchasing and renting from the private market, will do little to reduce the pressure on social housing.

Looking at Dublin City Council alone- In October 2014, Dublin City Council directly owned 25,825 social homes. By January 2019, that figure had fallen to 24,503.

Over the past 4-5 years DCC (alone) lost ownership of over 1,300 housing units. That this could happen in the middle of moralistic outrage over homelessness- is staggering.

Note: this reduction is accounted for in sales of social housing units to tenants, demolition of blocks of unsafe flats from bygone eras etc etc- its not that they were sold on the open market (to anyone).

We *need* schemes to ramp up the production of, and public ownership of, social housing stock. We need to quit renting from the private sector- and we need to stop selling off units (to tenants or anyone else).

Villa05 wrote: »

Banks were empowered to repossess assets that were used as security on loans, Gov just made it that more difficult. There needs to be balance between a properly run mortgage market and a situation where people can refuse to pay anything for years without any consequence. Unemployed people in council houses are expected to pay some portion of their income towards their accomodation

The government want their cake and to eat it. It is politically prudent to use the banking sector as bogeymen- and push all manner of impediments into how they conduct their business. Its why interest rates are so high in Ireland- because the risk associated with doing business in Ireland is just so staggeringly high.

If the government want to use a public owned bank to warehouse all domestic mortgages in- and insulate the private banking sector from the vagaries of doing such business in Ireland- they have AIB as a ready made solution- we still own 71% of it- it could be used as an off-the-shelf holding facility for domestic mortgages- and run as a public body rather than a going-concern, leaving BOI, KBC and everyone else- to do whatever they want (and if they know whats good for them- they keep the hell away from domestic mortgages).

Villa05 wrote: »

Back in the day 1 income and 20 year mortgages were sufficient
Since then it requires 2 incomes and a near doubling of the repayment years on much higher than median income

Yes- and we also had interest rates 10-12-14%
They were different times- we have swapped one folder of issues for a different folder of issues. McCreevy's Individualisation of tax bands was arguably a watershed in some respects for the Irish people- however, it also opened the flood gates to the whole dual-income race to the bottom that rapidly evolved post his grand gesture- which was sold to women who formerly were seen solely as home-makers- as somehow a pro-feminist gesture. In retrospect the only gesture it can be viewed as- is a pro-developer gesture.

Villa05 wrote: »

Birds of a feather

Your combined income is well above average, your a safe bet for banks that can charge well above average EU mortgage rates

True.
Its KBC looking for some low lying fruit. If they don't grab it, someone else will.

Top Dog

antimatterx wrote: »

I don't think so. Prices are 100% falling.

I believe Augeo meant that there were 1300 properties available, and now there are 1900? Not that they were priced at €1300 and are now €1900.

coolshannagh28

Villa05 wrote: »

This is very worrying, I heard Jim power the author of this report on radio yesterday evening. If the restuaunt sector is so badly affected, how come they can pay this guy to compile a report and lobby for huge funds from the tax payer
Looking for 0% vat and wage subsidies to be continued into 2021 all dressed up in excercise to save jobs. They already have a low rate of vat and wages are amongst the lowest in the country

This is all BS, There main issue is extortionate leases as was seen in the Bewley fiasco. Any stimulus here will only go on propping up commercial property it will do very little to save jobs

Stimulus needs to be focused on labour intensive industries that can deliver a dividend for the state.
Propping up the very industry (commercial property) that is a drag on the economy is shooting ourselves in the foot

It is a labour intensive industry making a huge contribution to the state and employing 250000 people who are on social welfare at the moment which the government cant afford. If the industry cant remain viable when it reopens it will put a huge strain of the economy as unemployment and insolvency soars with trigger effects on the wider economy . This is the sector of the economy which will determine if Covid 19 is a passing issue or becomes a crisis .

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

Who has this money, is it exclusively private individuals or does this include business accounts.

Remember in the noughties when parents were going guarantor on their kids mortgage. Are we now expecting parents to prop up property prices again with their savings until they reach the absolute max again and then crash

Making property more expensive and choosing to take the most expensive option to provide social housing ie purchasing and renting from the private market, will do little to reduce the pressure on social housing.

Banks were empowered to repossess assets that were used as security on loans, Gov just made it that more difficult. There needs to be balance between a properly run mortgage market and a situation where people can refuse to pay anything for years without any consequence. Unemployed people in council houses are expected to pay some portion of their income towards their accomodation

Back in the day 1 income and 20 year mortgages were sufficient
Since then it requires 2 incomes and a near doubling of the repayment years on much higher than median income

Birds of a feather

Your combined income is well above average, your a safe bet for banks that can charge well above average EU mortgage rates

Again, I don't disagree, and it is important to distinguish between those in mortgage arrears who are paying what they can and the chancers who refuse to pay anything.

But my point is nothing will change here until the social housing is available to house the people who end up getting their home repossessed.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

This is very worrying, I heard Jim power the author of this report on radio yesterday evening. If the restuaunt sector is so badly affected, how come they can pay this guy to compile a report and lobby for huge funds from the tax payer
Looking for 0% vat and wage subsidies to be continued into 2021 all dressed up in excercise to save jobs. They already have a low rate of vat and wages are amongst the lowest in the country

This is all BS, There main issue is extortionate leases as was seen in the Bewley fiasco. Any stimulus here will only go on propping up commercial property it will do very little to save jobs

Stimulus needs to be focused on labour intensive industries that can deliver a dividend for the state.
Propping up the very industry (commercial property) that is a drag on the economy is shooting ourselves in the foot

do you really think the only issue with the restaurant industry are rents? Way more complicated than that - there are too many restaurants in urban areas, poor management, poor service, poor quality food, insurance, rents and so on and so on

PommieBast

LJ12345 wrote: »

Northern rock was a subprime lender. Exorbitant interest was charged to offset risk. Were any of the main lenders offering 8x salary and 110% mortgages

Yep, Halifax and Abbey National were on the bandwagon. https://www.moneywise.co.uk/news/2008-02-19%E2%80%8C%E2%80%8C/lenders-pull-deposit-free-mortgages

ngunners

wassie wrote: »

Current projects are busy enough finishing off. The concern will be in 6 months time. Lots of consultants I speak with are very concerned about their future pipeline of work. I don't normally like to quote headlines as it can be sensationalist, but there have been a couple of telling ones for the construction sector in the last week.

June 21 - Construction output in Ireland to suffer worst decline in EU

June 16 - Construction sector will enter recession next year - Sisk CEO

Plenty of projects getting planning approval, but these are generally valid for 5 years so if economic conditions are not right to start they can easily be mothballed.

I agree about the lack of certainty regarding future projects. Even so, it is good to see so many projects nearing completion.

JimmyVik

PommieBast wrote: »

Yep, Halifax and Abbey National were on the bandwagon. https://www.moneywise.co.uk/news/2008-02-19%E2%80%8C%E2%80%8C/lenders-pull-deposit-free-mortgages

I remember Halifaxs 5% interest current account.

Mimi1980

cnocbui wrote: »

Prices may be affected, but they certainly aren't yet.

Of course they are not affected yet. It will take time to see daft price vs paid price.
Most of the houses sold last month were agreed to sell before Covid

JimmyVik

ngunners wrote: »

I agree about the lack of certainty regarding future projects. Even so, it is good to see so many projects nearing completion.

I think output will fall alright, but a lot of lobby groups for all sorts of sectors will be jumping on the bad news bandwagon now. The worse they can make the outlook, the more of the pie they will get when its dished out.

[Deleted User]

Augeo wrote: »

Ah yes, indeed.

There were 1300 for rent in Dublin in late March ............. 1900 now.

antimatterx wrote: »

I don't think so. Prices are 100% falling.

I didn't mention prices.............. 1300 apartments and 1900 apartments was what I was referring to.

JimmyVik

Augeo wrote: »

I didn't mention prices.............. 1300 apartments and 1900 apartments was what I was referring to.

How many are there now?

limnam

The COVID-19 crisis has continued to have a significant impact on the labour market in Ireland in May 2020. While the standard measure of Monthly Unemployment was 5.6% in May 2020, a new COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment could indicate a rate as high as 26.1% if all claimants of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment were classified as unemployed.

I don't know if they industry breakdowns

Be interesting to see how this plays out as we open up as this should have the biggest impact over the next year or so

[Deleted User]

Hubertj wrote: »

do you really think the only issue with the restaurant industry are rents? Way more complicated than that - there are too many restaurants in urban areas, poor management, poor service, poor quality food, insurance, rents and so on and so on

Indeed, it's a shame any of them will get help tbh.

[Deleted User]

limnam wrote: »

............., a new COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment could indicate a rate as high as 26.1% if all claimants of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment were classified as unemployed.............

I wonder what % are/were part time before Covid19 and wouldn't qualify for jobseekers etc ordinarily.

SozBbz

Hubertj wrote: »

do you really think the only issue with the restaurant industry are rents? Way more complicated than that - there are too many restaurants in urban areas, poor management, poor service, poor quality food, insurance, rents and so on and so on

Well, no one is suggesting a bail out because of poor management, service, quality etc.

Rents and insurance are a real problem - not limited to restaurants obviously.

Its normal for not all restaurants to survive, they are always opening and closing, but you can surely see that forcing all restaurants to close for months on end (save some who have managed some sort of takeaway business) and then to reopen with reduced capacity will impact even good businesses? We should be trying to save the best 80% surely.

Assetbacked

Hubertj wrote: »

do you really think the only issue with the restaurant industry are rents? Way more complicated than that - there are too many restaurants in urban areas, poor management, poor service, poor quality food, insurance, rents and so on and so on

Press Up Group restaurants and bars there are definitely too many of, they've essentially created a mass of homogenised, impersonal Insta clones with terribly average food.

Billythekid19

JimmyVik wrote: »

How many are there now?

Theres currently 1900 properties listed on daft to rent in Dublin.

Not a big shock really half the county have moved home for covid, you cant justify playing 1000 euro + a month for a room when your employer / college is allowing you to wfh.

SozBbz

Assetbacked wrote: »

Press Up Group restaurants and bars there are definitely too many of, they've essentially created a mass of homogenised, impersonal Insta clones with terribly average food.

Oh agree on this - they're always beautifully fitted out but the food is always unimaginative and bland. Pitty they've taken over some previously independent restaurants like Elephant & Castle and homogenized them.

I've been on a one woman boycott of the PressUp Group for about the last 2 years once I realised what was going on, we could absolutely do without property developers sons masquerading as restaurateurs.