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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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fliball123

Billythekid19 wrote: »

It is only natural that property is going up in price as we are in the midst of a pandemic and there is pent up demand of a few months now. Once the honeymoon period is over we can expect the fall in prices towards the end of the year when we will officially be in a recession and the inevitable job losses will be realized.

Pent up demand we have had nearly 7 years of increases....

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

Since when have the government built what they planned. And to do so know would mean crucifying us with taxes. I dont believe even a quarter of those houses will be built.

You might be surprised and me too.

Commercial sector will be having a pause once current projects are completed to see where the land lies after the pandemic. WFH and losses in retail will bite hard
It would seem logical that any stimulus should be targeted at increasing residential in high demand areas

TheSheriff

Absolutely seeing increases the past few days.

We had viewed a number of properties in this park previously, in the region of 500k. This up today at 550k

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/172-delwood-park-castleknock-dublin-15-d15yk1k/4434185

errlloyd

Finding that EAs in the Dublin area will only do viewings for those who have AIP.

SozBbz

errlloyd wrote: »

Finding that EAs in the Dublin area will only do viewings for those who have AIP.

Makes sense in a way - they can't just throw open the doors for open viewings at the moment, so they may as well prioritise qualified buyers.

awec

errlloyd wrote: »

Finding that EAs in the Dublin area will only do viewings for those who have AIP.

Given all the social distancing extra effort that needs to go into viewings it's not surprising that they aren't entertaining what are effectively tyre kickers.

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

Pent up demand we have had nearly 7 years of increases....

CSO price index levels on a national level
April 2017: 114.2
April 2018: 129.5 13.4% ann. increase
April 2019: 133.3 2.9% ann. increase
April 2020: 133.9 0.5% ann. increase

Interestingly April dipped relative to March.

Also interesting is that the Dublin index was 123.3 in April 18 and 123.9 in April 20 so national increases have outpaced Dublin in the recent past.

Reversal

Billythekid19 wrote: »

It is only natural that property is going up in price as we are in the midst of a pandemic and there is pent up demand of a few months now. Once the honeymoon period is over we can expect the fall in prices towards the end of the year when we will officially be in a recession and the inevitable job losses will be realized.

There will be a bit of a drive alright initially. I have friend who was adamant on getting something ASAP as they know they won't get an exemption next time round. So clock was ticking to get something before their AIP ran out.

So you'll have people pushing to get something now before their buying power is reduced or removed altogether. You have to imagine it'll be a dead cat bounce though as ultimately these factors can only put downward pressure in prices as we move into Q4.

manniot2

Reversal wrote: »

There will be a bit of a drive alright initially. I have friend who was adamant on getting something ASAP as they know they won't get an exemption next time round. So clock was ticking to get something before their AIP ran out.

So you'll have people pushing to get something now before their buying power is reduced or removed altogether. You have to imagine it'll be a dead cat bounce though as ultimately these factors can only put downward pressure in prices as we move into Q4.

This seems a very naive logic - racing to buy an asset that is going to fall in value in 6 months time.

TheSheriff

manniot2 wrote: »

This seems a very naive logic - racing to buy an asset that is going to fall in value in 6 months time.

Well there is some logic; if you do not think you will get a mortgage in 6 months.

Agreed tough, more negatives than positives at jumping in with exemptions now; I think now is the time to negotiate hard with vendors if possible, get a good chunk off the price when there is uncertainty in the air but still access to credit.

Captainsatnav

cnocbui wrote: »

The tax might be offset to some extent by Ireland being the only native English speaking country in the EU.

Malta, Cyprus

SozBbz

manniot2 wrote: »

This seems a very naive logic - racing to buy an asset that is going to fall in value in 6 months time.

Its not totally naive if you're planning on holding on to it for longer than 6 months. Who cares what its worth in 6 months if you plan to live there for 10, 20 or 30 years or beyond even.

Its not a pure investment, its a roof over your head. You're going to need to fund such roof regardless, be that by paying rent or perhaps forgoing independence by living with your parents well into adulthood.

Ifs about credit and affordability of repayments rather than just the sticker price. When you look back in 20 years it probably won't matter whether you paid X or X-5% or whatever.

SozBbz

I think you can divide purchases up into "things that make people feel safe and secure" and "other" in this new Covid19 reality.

In China when they eased their lockdown, they say huge demand for housing and also cars. Both are tangible and give people a sense of control over their own destiny. I think items like this will withstand a lot of the economic shock.

Things that are simply nice to have or don't contribute to making you feel more secure will likely see the greatest impact. A lot of people are anxious at the moment, the world feels very uncertain and as such I think people will target whatever resources they have at purchases that make them feel better, such as secure housing and private, personal transport.

JimmyVik

Villa05 wrote: »

You might be surprised and me too.

Commercial sector will be having a pause once current projects are completed to see where the land lies after the pandemic. WFH and losses in retail will bite hard
It would seem logical that any stimulus should be targeted at increasing residential in high demand areas

Yeah i'll be extremly surprised.
Where is the money going to come from?
Nothing the government have tried to do in housing in Ireland has ever made things better. Ever.
They have made it worse by orders of magnitude though, many times over.

JimmyVik

manniot2 wrote: »

This seems a very naive logic - racing to buy an asset that is going to fall in value in 6 months time.

As of 2010. I was so happy I didnt buy a house in 2007.

As of today. I wish id bought a house in 2007.

Reversal

manniot2 wrote: »

This seems a very naive logic - racing to buy an asset that is going to fall in value in 6 months time.

I wouldn't do it, but my point is that's it's happening. It'll only be a short term effect buts it's happening.

SozBbz

JimmyVik wrote: »

Yeah i'll be extremely surprised.
Where is the money going to come from?
Nothing the government have tried to do in housing in Ireland has ever made things better. Ever.

Stimulus measures. ECB money has to be pumped into the economy somehow, construction is one of the most obvious routes to getting it circulating.

I'm hoping they'll also throw some into retrofitting schemes for older houses (purely selfish reasons) but I think its fairly likely given the Green party wish list for Carbon emissions reductions.

The last thing we need is thousands of builders on the dole (won't be so easy to go to Australia this time around). Pumping money into building social/affordable housing keeps the builders occupied and also is a very visible way of making the government of the day look like they're taking action.

lastusername

Billythekid19 wrote: »

It is only natural that property is going up in price as we are in the midst of a pandemic and there is pent up demand of a few months now. Once the honeymoon period is over we can expect the fall in prices towards the end of the year when we will officially be in a recession and the inevitable job losses will be realized.

SozBbz wrote: »

Its not totally naive if you're planning on holding on to it for longer than 6 months. Who cares what its worth in 6 months if you plan to live there for 10, 20 or 30 years or beyond even.

Its not a pure investment, its a roof over your head. You're going to need to fund such roof regardless, be that by paying rent or perhaps forgoing independence by living with your parents well into adulthood.

Ifs about credit and affordability of repayments rather than just the sticker price. When you look back in 20 years it probably won't matter whether you paid X or X-5% or whatever.

Exactly, I think a lot of people who want to get on the "ladder" are reassuring themselves with the idea that prices will fall significantly over the next 6-18 months. I think it will be the opposite!

Reasons:

-A LOT of pent-up demand over the last numbers of years, and the last few months in particular.

-People have loads of savings built up over the past few months. Even those on low incomes will have more money due to the government payments.

-Construction has slowed massively (aside from social housing), meaning new supply has slowed even further.

And I'm sure there are lots of other reasons I'm not thinking of just right now...

TheSheriff

lastusername wrote: »

Exactly, I think a lot of people who want to get on the "ladder" are reassuring themselves with the idea that prices will fall significantly over the next 6-18 months. I think it will be the opposite!

Reasons:

-A LOT of pent-up demand over the last numbers of years, and the last few months in particular.

-People have loads of savings built up over the past few months. Even those on low incomes will have more money due to the government payments.

-Construction has slowed massively (aside from social housing), meaning new supply has slowed even further.

And I'm sure there are lots of other reasons I'm not thinking of just right now...

Of these, I think construction is the one to watch.

At the first sign of prices falling I suspect there will be a strangling of supply...............

WeeCuppaCha

fliball123 wrote: »

is it me or does property seem to be going up in price?

I’m noticing similar. It’s like all the EAs had a secret Zoom meeting and agreed to slap 10% on all asking prices.

Surely with so many people having their AIPs and exemptions pulled we should be seeing a drop? I know asking prices are just that; asking, but as
someone who wants and needs to buy sooner rather than later I’m starting to get twitchy.

Low supply + rising prices = A nightmare

lastusername

WeeCuppaCha wrote: »

I’m noticing similar. It’s like all the EAs had a secret Zoom meeting and agreed to slap 10% on all asking prices.

Surely with so many people having their AIPs and exemptions pulled we should be seeing a drop? I know asking prices are just that; asking, but as
someone who wants and needs to buy sooner rather than later I’m starting to get twitchy.

Low supply + rising prices = A nightmare

You won't do because demand is still rocketing. Also, those who may have been short on deposit funds but who can still borrow now may have bigger deposits and savings, likely balancing out those who may have had exemptions or AIPs pulled. Just surmising but demand is still very high and supply (especially of certain types of homes) is still very low.

SozBbz

WeeCuppaCha wrote: »

I’m noticing similar. It’s like all the EAs had a secret Zoom meeting and agreed to slap 10% on all asking prices.

Surely with so many people having their AIPs and exemptions pulled we should be seeing a drop? I know asking prices are just that; asking, but as
someone who wants and needs to buy sooner rather than later I’m starting to get twitchy.

Low supply + rising prices = A nightmare

My advice would be to avoid turnkey properties if you've the stomach for it. Thats where most people will lose their heads.

I'm not saying to sacrifice on the fundamentals of what you want, but keep in mind what can be changed and what cannot.

When we bought our current home, we wanted it for the site, the location, and the fact its detached and has good wide side access.

It has some flaws (layout, 70's extension, we needed to do the roof and kitchen almost straight away) but fundamentally we felt it was a sound proposition and that we'll get it the way we want it in time.

You need to be able to focus in on whats important to you - what can be changed and what cannot. Don't be fooled by a house thats immaculately decorated to sell but falls short in other areas. Lots of people want turnkey properties, so you're well off to distance yourself from that cohort.

JimmyVik

TheSheriff wrote: »

Of these, I think construction is the one to watch.

At the first sign of prices falling I suspect there will be a strangling of supply...............

Im getting the feeling there wont be a decent house to be got in a couple of years.

kippy

SozBbz wrote: »

My advice would be to avoid turnkey properties if you've the stomach for it. Thats where most people will lose their heads.

I'm not saying to sacrifice on the fundamentals of what you want, but keep in mind what can be changed and what cannot.

When we bought our current home, we wanted it for the site, the location, and the fact its detached and has good wide side access.

It has some flaws (layout, 70's extension, we needed to do the roof and kitchen almost straight away) but fundamentally we felt it was a sound proposition and that we'll get it the way we want it in time.

You need to be able to focus in on whats important to you - what can be changed and what cannot. Don't be fooled by a house thats immaculately decorated to sell but falls short in other areas. Lots of people want turnkey properties, so you're well off to distance yourself from that cohort.

The day you buy is the day you sell, location location location and such phrases come to mind.
You can change a lot of things in and around a house but you cannot change location.

Henbabani

I have to add that there is so many things to take in count when you purchasing a house, and we are sale agreed on new house in Lucan.
People here wrote that the prices will go down, and let's assume that me and my wife waiting for prices to decrease.
But - what does it mean to wait? it means that we are going to rent, 2 bed apartment, which is around 20-24K per year, and that's only the rent, so only if the price will fall by 5% next year, it will be worth to wait(the purchase price is 385K), and from the last crash we know that it took around 4-5 years for prices to really decrease, so think that you pay around 100K for rent in that 4-5 years, and you only get 2 BED apartment vs. 3 bed house.
Another thing to take in count is the fact that this crisis is different, as people mentioned there's people like me and my wife that used this time to save even more than we used to before the crisis, and there's lots of couple and families in the same situation.
So from my perspective even if the prices will decrease it only going to be for a short period and in small percentage.

WeeCuppaCha

Realistically, how much have people managed to save in 3 months that would explain price rises? From reading other threads here, most certainly have not managed to save enough to negate their need for exemptions. It’s not possible that anyone has saved half their annual salary/0.5 LTI for obvious reasons. Even to save 0.25 would mean zero spend over the previous 3 months.

It has the feel of a false market right now. Like the EAs are chancing their arms and raising asking prices in anticipation of low offers. I’ll certainly be keeping a close watch on the PPR to compare asking and selling prices.

Nijmegen

PPR data out yesterday for April. A 40% reduction in sales in April, house prices basically flat - up 0.5% year on year but down 0.2% compared to March. Prices in Dublin fell 0.1% while the rest of the country was up 1.1%

My bet is that house prices will remain relatively stable over the next while. It felt like Dublin was plateauing to cooling a little anyway but that supply, demand and mortgage rules was driving a lot of it.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0617/1147956-cso-residential-property-prices/

justfortherecor

Think a broad plateau or a famous "soft landing" for prices is a reasonable assumption to make at the moment.

Wall of money from QE will surely support asset prices and continue their decoupling from the real economy but, on the flip side, I just can't see any meaningful price progression where we have unemployment increasing here to low teens for remainder of 2020/21.

Subsidies have done exactly what they were designed to do in supporting incomes and spending (and general confidence in the market, including housing to a large degree).

All bets are off if we have a brutal second wave.

awec

WeeCuppaCha wrote: »

Realistically, how much have people managed to save in 3 months that would explain price rises? From reading other threads here, most certainly have not managed to save enough to negate their need for exemptions. It’s not possible that anyone has saved half their annual salary/0.5 LTI for obvious reasons. Even to save 0.25 would mean zero spend over the previous 3 months.

It has the feel of a false market right now. Like the EAs are chancing their arms and raising asking prices in anticipation of low offers. I’ll certainly be keeping a close watch on the PPR to compare asking and selling prices.

People don't have to have saved anything extra to see prices rise, or even remain static. All it takes is for demand to stay roughly the same relative to supply, so while demand is dropping due to no more exemptions etc, supply is also dropping as people don't want to sell.

On the supply side:

- People don't want the hassle and stress of moving during a pandemic
- Anyone on covid payment, or unemployed is not going to be selling their house
- Most people with an uncertain financial outlook are not going to be selling their house

On the demand side:

- People with solid employment and solid incomes may be keen to buy as they are concerned that getting finance in x months time may be difficult even if their own personal financial circumstances remain unchanged
- People looking for houses in specific areas, or even specific houses themselves may be keen to buy as they are concerned about supply in that area drying up
- There is a backlog of people who wanted to buy in March, April and May, and who still want to buy

Combined these factors will limit the rate of any price drops. Nobody knows for how long.

WeeCuppaCha

Pointing out how increased savings over the past 3 months are unlikely to be the cause of increasing prices was more in response to Henbani’s post than any credence in it being a factor.