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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Taylor365

Villa05 wrote: »

you loose your right to subsidised accommodation would help

Just invalidated your entire post! :mad:

:pac:

r93kaey5p2izun

House in Lucan asking €450k currently at €500k bidding. A lot of competition.

Computer Science Student

Any noticeable impact from COVID yet? Everything seems to be pretty much the same value on daft, which has surprised me.

TheSheriff

Luciano Squeaking Greenhouse wrote: »

House in Lucan asking €450k currently at €500k bidding. A lot of competition.

Any link to give us a look??

r93kaey5p2izun

TheSheriff wrote: »

Any link to give us a look??

https://touch.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-5-haydens-park-close-lucan-co-dublin/2284423

TheSheriff

Luciano Squeaking Greenhouse wrote: »

https://touch.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-5-haydens-park-close-lucan-co-dublin/2284423

Not surprised to be honest; really good finish inside, 4 beds.

Only downside is the lack of a back garden (but it is south facing)!

These are the kinds of properties people want it seems. Turn key etc.

r93kaey5p2izun

Absolutely not worth that imo. But shows there's still money there for the moment anyway. No sign of any price drops in West Dublin or North Kildare.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

what about personal responsibility? Irish people love blaming everyone else and not accepting their role.

Soryy I don't understand your question in the context of the quoted post

TheSheriff

Luciano Squeaking Greenhouse wrote: »

Absolutely not worth that imo. But shows there's still money there for the moment anyway. No sign of any price drops in West Dublin or North Kildare.

Ah yeah, people see different values on properties.

We viewed in West Dublin and to me, that property and it's finish are worth 450k. Probably wouldn't go much more due to location, it's obviously worth 500k to someone tough.

Springy Turf

TheSheriff wrote: »

Ah yeah, people see different values on properties.

We viewed in West Dublin and to me, that property and it's finish are worth 450k. Probably wouldn't go much more due to location, it's obviously worth 500k to someone tough.

And almost 500k to at least one other bidder.

I’m fairness. I think there is general agreement that it will take months to a year for the market to have true post covid prices.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Soryy I don't understand your question in the context of the quoted post

From my reading you are blaming the current housing issues on government policy. Last recession was caused by credit bubble etc. Young people today paying for the past etc. We, Irish people and not banks or policy etc, played a large part in causing it. But we are very good at blaming everyone else.
Perhaps I’m not comprehending your points correctly and if so i apologise.

brisan

TheSheriff wrote: »

Think this is over egged tbh; for many companies I would expect a hybrid WFH approach where people are in the officer x% of the week; therefore there will still be footfall.

I doubt the likes of grafton street or <insert high street name> will see tumbleweed blowing by any time soon.

In the current climate who will pay Johnny Ronan 30k a week for the Bewleys building
Will MCDonalds on Grafton street continue to pay the high rent with capacity reduced to 30% ,table service only and no touch screens ?

brisan

Luciano Squeaking Greenhouse wrote: »

House in Lucan asking €450k currently at €500k bidding. A lot of competition.

To be fair that house is finished to a very high standard and is in walk in and hang your coat up condition
Well worth 500k

tigger123

We bought last year, and dont intend to sell for at least 10 years, so I dont really care about prices going up or down due to Covid. For us, it will on out either way (fingers crossed).

But I cant really see how a Covid recession bringing prices down; the job losses in the hospitality and retail sector most probably aren't those people who will be buying houses in Dublin any time soon. And if anything the drastic lack of supply is going to be worsened with the slowdown in the last few months.

In short, the same issues driving prices up pre Covid will keep them up post Covid IMO.

Hopefully this new Government can do something to make homes affordable again.

Lolle06

The_Conductor wrote: »

Thats just bringing it up to €26 per tonne, their intention is to increase it to €100 per tonne in the lifetime of this government- which would equate to roughly €32 on a 60 litre fill of petrol, or €37 on a 60 litre fill of diesel.........

There is going to be a world of hurt in here- for anyone who has to drive anywhere, heat their home, or is not in a position to use public transport..........

Everything will be more expensive- shopping, deliveries, public transport (unless it’s heavily sponsored by the government), tradespeople, building costs etc. It will have a knock on effect on every part of life. I can’t see it happening without replacing it with alternatives.

Billythekid19

tigger123 wrote: »

We bought last year, and dont intend to sell for at least 10 years, so I dont really care about prices going up or down due to Covid. For us, it will on out either way (fingers crossed).

But I cant really see how a Covid recession bringing prices down; the job losses in the hospitality and retail sector most probably aren't those people who will be buying houses in Dublin any time soon. And if anything the drastic lack of supply is going to be worsened with the slowdown in the last few months.

In short, the same issues driving prices up pre Covid will keep them up post Covid IMO.

Hopefully this new Government can do something to make homes affordable again.

It is not just the low paid affected, everybody is going to have less money in their pockets. I know of an IT company that employs thousands of people in Ireland that is cutting all employee bonuses so people will have 10% less in their annual payslip. This coupled with a freeze on promotions means that people wont have the same funds to purchase property meaning a decline in property prices is inevitable.

tigger123

Billythekid19 wrote: »

It is not just the low paid affected, everybody is going to have less money in their pockets. I know of an IT company that employs thousands of people in Ireland that is cutting all employee bonuses so people will have 10% less in their annual payslip. This coupled with a freeze on promotions means that people wont have the same funds to purchase property meaning a decline in property prices is inevitable.

There will be less money in the economy, but is that enough to counter the lack of supply?

The lack of new builds coming onto the market is the problem. Unless there is a serious housing policy shift (Government intervention) I cant see how this increases in the coming years.

Billythekid19

tigger123 wrote: »

There will be less money in the economy, but is that enough to counter the lack of supply?

The lack of new builds coming onto the market is the problem. Unless there is a serious housing policy shift (Government intervention) I cant see how this increases in the coming years.

Under supply is only an issue in the big cities which have become less desirable as locations post covid. We have tens of thousands of vacant properties in the counrty, albeit in less desirable locations.
The government plans to build 50,000 social houses, if it happens, will surely solve the shortage of affordable housing.

brisan

tigger123 wrote: »

We bought last year, and dont intend to sell for at least 10 years, so I dont really care about prices going up or down due to Covid. For us, it will on out either way (fingers crossed).

But I cant really see how a Covid recession bringing prices down; the job losses in the hospitality and retail sector most probably aren't those people who will be buying houses in Dublin any time soon. And if anything the drastic lack of supply is going to be worsened with the slowdown in the last few months.

In short, the same issues driving prices up pre Covid will keep them up post Covid IMO.

Hopefully this new Government can do something to make homes affordable again.

If Covid only meant a recession in Ireland maybe the situation would play out as you forecast.
However it will be a world wide recession and that will affect even the bigger industries and higher paid jobs.
Brexit is another elephant in the room and no one knows how that will play out but it will definitely have consequences for the Irish economy
Even without Brexit, Britain (our largest trading partner ) is heading for a major recession
https://www.ft.com/content/734e604b-93d9-43a6-a6ec-19e8b22dad3c
There will be certain economic factors that are totally out of our control and no amount of fiscal stimulus will help

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

We, Irish people and not banks or policy etc, played a large part in causing it.

Ref the last crash This argument we hear alot but in my opinion it's overdone. The issues were systemic and that system was created predominantly by a long serving government of that time

Yes people queued to buy houses for themselves to live in, but if you blinked they were gone up in price. I know of numerous people that purchased there 1 and only house who queued, the sellers see the size of the queue and the price has gone up purely on that basis. The whole system looked like it was cooling in 2002 and the geniuses controlling the system came along with the bright idea of 110% mortgages and the rest is history

The central bank was seen as another "jobs for the boys and girls" outlet so there was no oversight despite numerous warnings. The people warning of the risks were labelled doom merchants and some were subjected to character assaination as the conducter pointed out earlier in this thread

Of course their were people that filled their boots, they were very much in the minority and of course encouraged by the system

tigger123

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Under supply is only an issue in the big cities which have become less desirable as locations post covid. We have tens of thousands of vacant properties in the counrty, albeit in less desirable locations.
The government plans to build 50,000 social houses, if it happens, will surely solve the shortage of affordable housing.

I do think living in the commuter towns for people working in Dublin would go a long way towards easing pressure on supply.

This would mean decent transport options and more people working from home to make it more of an option.

r93kaey5p2izun

brisan wrote: »

To be fair that house is finished to a very high standard and is in walk in and hang your coat up condition
Well worth 500k

In my opinion there are just a tiny handful of places in Lucan worth anything close to €500k, and that is certainly not one of them! It's a nice finish but it has basically no garden, so not even worth €400k in my eyes. But that's how it goes, clearly there are widely different opinions on value. That's what makes it interesting I suppose.

The_Conductor

Luciano Squeaking Greenhouse wrote: »

In my opinion there are just a tiny handful of places in Lucan worth anything close to €500k, and that is certainly not one of them! It's a nice finish but it has basically no garden, so not even worth €400k in my eyes. But that's how it goes, clearly there are widely different opinions on value. That's what makes it interesting I suppose.

There are a few estates that are all >500k in value in Lucan including- Laraghcon, Rokeby, Hawkridge and a few others......

GreeBo

Luciano Squeaking Greenhouse wrote: »

In my opinion there are just a tiny handful of places in Lucan worth anything close to €500k, and that is certainly not one of them! It's a nice finish but it has basically no garden, so not even worth €400k in my eyes. But that's how it goes, clearly there are widely different opinions on value. That's what makes it interesting I suppose.

I'd agree with this.
also a 4 bed it aint.

"Bedroom" 4 is a box room off the front door, its a playroom with a bed wedged in. No storage space at all.

It has a nice finish, but I wouldn't spend north of 400K on it personally, but lack of garden would be huge for me.
Its slightly above first time buyer house imo.

JimmyVik

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Under supply is only an issue in the big cities which have become less desirable as locations post covid. We have tens of thousands of vacant properties in the counrty, albeit in less desirable locations.
The government plans to build 50,000 social houses, if it happens, will surely solve the shortage of affordable housing.

Since when have the government built what they planned.
And to do so know would mean crucifying us with taxes.
I dont believe even a quarter of those houses will be built.

r93kaey5p2izun

The_Conductor wrote: »

There are a few estates that are all >500k in value in Lucan including- Laraghcon, Rokeby, Hawkridge and a few others......

Yes, and I wouldn't choose to live in any of them. As I said, widely different opinions on value.

Deub

Billythekid19 wrote: »

It is not just the low paid affected, everybody is going to have less money in their pockets. I know of an IT company that employs thousands of people in Ireland that is cutting all employee bonuses so people will have 10% less in their annual payslip. This coupled with a freeze on promotions means that people wont have the same funds to purchase property meaning a decline in property prices is inevitable.

And you can add to this, an expected decrease of corporation tax in the coming years: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/corporate-tax-take-cannot-be-relied-upon-in-future-warns-donohoe-1.4189282?mode=amp

If companies cannot use Ireland for tax purpose then they have less incentive to install their headquarters here.

cnocbui

Deub wrote: »

And you can add to this, an expected decrease of corporation tax in the coming years: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/corporate-tax-take-cannot-be-relied-upon-in-future-warns-donohoe-1.4189282?mode=amp

If companies cannot use Ireland for tax purpose then they have less incentive to install their headquarters here.

The tax might be offset to some extent by Ireland being the only native English speaking country in the EU.

fliball123

is it me or does property seem to be going up in price?

Billythekid19

fliball123 wrote: »

is it me or does property seem to be going up in price?

It is only natural that property is going up in price as we are in the midst of a pandemic and there is pent up demand of a few months now. Once the honeymoon period is over we can expect the fall in prices towards the end of the year when we will officially be in a recession and the inevitable job losses will be realized.