schmittel wrote: » I don't think it is bad taste in the slightest - just stating facts in context, completely fair enough. But I think it is misguided to think that doomsters are ignoring it and taking "any macro-event and fit it to the "properties will crash" narrative". Part of the problem with the discussion here is posters are not looking at the macroenvironment seriously, both at a national and international level. My view is that macro factors will cause properties to crash sooner or later, rather than trying to take macro factor and fit it to my gloomy narrative. But whenever anyone tries to have a discussion along the lines of property prices are going to take a hammering because the ESRI says the Irish economy faces largest recession in history, a pile of posters will say "Nonsense, sure John and Mary are flying and still planning on buying this year." Which sounds a lot like ignoring the macro, taking any positive micro event and fitting it to the "property prices won't go down/will stabilise, this time it's different" narrative.
TheSheriff wrote: » But its not doom and gloom, therefore not reported in the media. Its a reality tough, often ignored on this board by those who want to take any macro-event and fit it to the "properties will crash" narrative. A few months back it was Brexit. Undoubtedly property prices will come down in Ireland; it would be foolish to think otherwise in light of Covid, but by how much and for how long is a real unknown. This idea of not mentioning that many people still have jobs and some industries are booming because its "bad taste" and may offend those who have lost their jobs takes from the discussion. This will have an impact on the length/dept of any recession.
SozBbz wrote: » It would be bad taste to drone on about how well you're doing to a friend who you know is in trouble. Its not bad taste to share your own real world experience in a discussion forum, especially in light of exaggerated doom and gloom posts, who are retrospectively seeking to cite covid19 as a reason why certain retailers closed down up to 2 years ago.
OwlsZat wrote: » If you can present it in some sort of empirical form then I'd say people are all ears. Saying myself and my girlfriend are flying on it's own isn't evidence of much.
TheSheriff wrote: » Agree - it is a bad taste, and its not my intention to; but there are posters here listing the businesses which have gone bust and how they will impact the property market. When the reality is there is also a counter argument that nobody wants to hear.
OwlsZat wrote: » It's bad taste. A friend of mine was talking to a pal of his who runs a bus tour company. Needless to say the bus tour owner is in dire financial straits. He was lamenting that one of his supposed friends was insensitive enough to spend 15 minutes to him complaining on the phone about how he wouldn't get his 5k bonus this year. If you're in an industry doing well, great, just no need to shout about it at a time many others are struggling.
TheSheriff wrote: » There is also the fact that while there is vast unemployment, there are companies/industries which are booming. I've been shot down for saying this before, but I work in Pharma and my GF works in tech and we are busier than ever. GF's bonuses are up; I have recruiters calling looking for CVs as they have pending positions on the books due to the surge of CV-19; old drugs being ramped up in manufacture, new drugs, new devices etc.
19233974 wrote: » While i dont agree with the catastrophising some people are doing, we can not judge anything right now. We are still under restrictions and the economic impact wont be seen for another few months But i think any one denying the inevitable economic fallout from this literally has their heads buried in the sand. How much it effects house prices is anyones guess due to the supply issue that is not going to be fixed by FF/FG. We will have mini spikes in 2nd, 3rd waves etc. that is going to continue to disrupt the economy until we have a vaccine in a years time. We are already seeing some of these around the world. While life will go on, it will be a bumpy economic ride for the next year or so
19233974 wrote: » But i think any one denying the inevitable economic fallout from this literally has their heads buried in the sand. How much it effects house prices is anyones guess due to the supply issue that is not going to be fixed by FF
Queasy Tadpole wrote: » The doom and loom in this thread is not what I see on the ground. Prices are the same, zero drops. We are looking to buy/sell at the same time so it doesn't really effect but it's interesting to see the properties being made available. All coming back on the market at the same price 6+ months ago.
brisan wrote: » Retailers gone so far Debenhams Coast Warehouse Oasis Forever21 Mothercare Queens in Dalkey the first big name to go
brisan wrote: » Retailers gone so far Debenhams Coast Warehouse Oasis Forever21 Mothercare
TheSheriff wrote: » You are the ultimate doom merchant as soon as anyone says anything to the contrary and you seem to take great joy in listing businesses which have gone bust. We know we are in for a recession - chill out.
brisan wrote: » Retailers gone so far Debenhams Coast Warehouse Oasis Forever21 Mothercare Hospitality sector in tatters due to Coronaphobia,social distancing rules and no music in pubs Queens in Dalkey the first big name to go Reports that 90% of restaurants will not be viable at 2m social distancing and 50% not viable at 1 m rule Hotel industry struggling with no foreign tourists Airline industry laying off staff and drastically reducing wages. Commercial sector will struggle to get previous rents with increased WFH and less people allowed in to shops and browsing discouraged How do you think this will affect incomes and therefore demand every major worldwide financial institution is STATING not forecasting a recession ranging from the worst in 300 years to the worst since the foundation of the state Dan O Brien of the Independent said this recession has the potential to make 2008 look like a blip But Marian Finnegan (Managing Director of the Residential and Advisory dept of Sherry Fitzgerald ) predicts a SOFTENING of house prices so all will be grand Buckle up we are in for a hell of a ride of our green party subsidised bikes in the next 12-18 months
fliball123 wrote: » I think the debate needs to be moved on here the same environment and properties do not exist in 2020 that did back in 08 We have a better structure on banking loans and mortgages We have a better liquidity We have a lower level of debt vs savings We have a much higher demand for housing Not saying there will be drop but I have been arguing for months since the start of this that no matter if its a pandemic, a crash or anything else. If the fundamental principals of supply and demand do not shift then price will not change. Supply has been taken off over the last number of months. It will be interesting to see how the next 3 months go.
Villa05 wrote: » You could nearly put your house on Mary Lou being the next leader after that combo
awec wrote: » Because you don't pay VAT on second hand houses, so the VAT is removed on new houses to normalize the data. The PPR also, I believe, only shows the prices of the house itself, and not the price of the land. Therefore it depends how the developer splits up the two within the final purchase price as to what will ultimately show on the PPR.
Villa05 wrote: » You could nearly put your house on Mary Lou being the next leader after that combo Sorry for your loss Good summation, saw the same behaviour in 07/08 even though people knew their jobs were at serious risk
Villa05 wrote: » You could nearly put your house on Mary Lou being the next leader after that combo If you could afford a house that is Sorry for your loss Good summation, saw the same behaviour in 07/08 even though people knew their jobs were at serious risk
errlloyd wrote: » Even forgetting absolutely everything else, the withdrawal of LTI exemptions alone should knock prices at some stage.
Dav010 wrote: Don’t forget the greens, they want to remove sale of property as a cause for ending a tenancy, that will spook a lot of LLs/investors possibly increasing the numbers leaving the market and numbers of units for sale.
TheSheriff wrote: I think people will start to value the house with a garden after this and we might see a resurgence in demand first in the suburbs /commuter belt before the city centre. Unfortunately there is still excessive demand for housing, that hasn't gone await and looking at the government's new program it is here to stay for the foreseeable future.
TheSheriff wrote: We also potentially now have the unknown of FF/FG in government and the meddling they will no doubt do with the market.
Dolbhad wrote: I feel like we are in a bubble at the moment. It will be Christmas/New Year before we see any changes in prices. We will have a budget at that stage which will show the extent we have to repay for COVID and back to dealing with Brexit. Those who are still secure in their jobs will buy now while banks will lend an amount sufficient to buy a house and government is holding up the economy at the moment with the COVID payments.
