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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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awec

Cyrus wrote: »

It’s nothing to do with what I think

If they are new builds then the ppr for some reason shows the price net of vat , what the purchaser will have paid will have been the gross amount .

Because you don't pay VAT on second hand houses, so the VAT is removed on new houses to normalize the data.

The PPR also, I believe, only shows the prices of the house itself, and not the price of the land. Therefore it depends how the developer splits up the two within the final purchase price as to what will ultimately show on the PPR.

limnam

Conrad83 wrote: »

Just to add an fyi.

I have 2 friends working in mortgages in 2 separate banks. Apparently this last week they are up the walls and back to 'pre covid times'. If this continues the huge price drops people are predicting may not materialise.

That itself doesn't mean much.

There's naturally going to be a big back log of people who put things off for a few months due to not been able to view etc

What will really impact is how the overall job loss damage is at the end.

There's also a large group of people who have been able to save a lot of money in the last few months.

Bit like when started coming out of recession there was a large glut of cash buyers, once they were gone it leveled off a bit.

If people in the wage bracket of small starter homes/apartments leave the market the owners of those can't get on the next "step"

What are the current unemployment figures looking like ?

Hubertj

Dav010 wrote: »

Don’t forget the greens, they want to remove sale of property as a cause for ending a tenancy, that will spook a lot of LLs/investors possibly increasing the numbers leaving the market and numbers of units for sale.

surely that would have a negative impact on property values? I read that banks won't offer mortgages on properties unless they are vacant?

Conrad83

Just to add an fyi.

I have 2 friends working in mortgages in 2 separate banks. Apparently this last week they are up the walls and back to 'pre covid times'. If this continues the huge price drops people are predicting may not materialise.

Cyrus

Markitron wrote: »

I was just asking for your best guess

I’m not being clear

There is no guess work if the properties are listed as new builds the price on the ppr is net

If you want to put up the link I can check for you

Markitron

Cyrus wrote: »

It’s nothing to do with what I think

If they are new builds then the ppr for some reason shows the price net of vat , what the purchaser will have paid will have been the gross amount .

I was just asking for your best guess

[Deleted User]

TheSheriff wrote: »

No doubt there will be some form of dip towards the end of the year. The 100k questions are by how much, for how long and will you get credit if you wait to buy.

I think people will start to value the house with a garden after this and we might see a resurgence in demand first in the suburbs /commuter belt before the city centre. Unfortunately there is still excessive demand for housing, that hasn't gone await and look at the government's new program it is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

We also potentially now have the unknown of FF/FG in government and the meddling they will no doubt do with the market.

Don’t forget the greens, they want to remove sale of property as a cause for ending a tenancy, that will spook a lot of LLs/investors possibly increasing the numbers leaving the market and numbers of units for sale.

TheSheriff

Dolbhad wrote: »

I feel like we are in a bubble at the moment. It will be Christmas/New Year before we see any changes in prices. We will have a budget at that stage which will show the extent we have to repay for COVID and back to dealing with Brexit. Those who are still secure in their jobs will buy now while banks will lend an amount sufficient to buy a house and government is holding up the economy at the moment with the COVID payments.

But once subsidy/pandemic payments eventually stop, there will be job losses and pay cuts which will result is less spending in the economy and knock on effects will follow.

We recently had a death in family over the lockdown so we have a house to sell. We had to get for valuation for probate last week. Auctioneers advice was to get grant of probate and sell the property ASAP as they said we won’t get the valuation price by end of year. They expect the market to hold until then.

No doubt there will be some form of dip towards the end of the year. The 100k questions are by how much, for how long and will you get credit if you wait to buy.

I think people will start to value the house with a garden after this and we might see a resurgence in demand first in the suburbs /commuter belt before the city centre. Unfortunately there is still excessive demand for housing, that hasn't gone await and looking at the government's new program it is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

We also potentially now have the unknown of FF/FG in government and the meddling they will no doubt do with the market.

Dolbhad

Luciano Squeaking Greenhouse wrote: »

I see no evidence of any reduction in prices here.

I feel like we are in a bubble at the moment. It will be Christmas/New Year before we see any changes in prices. We will have a budget at that stage which will show the extent we have to repay for COVID and back to dealing with Brexit. Those who are still secure in their jobs will buy now while banks will lend an amount sufficient to buy a house and government is holding up the economy at the moment with the COVID payments.

But once subsidy/pandemic payments eventually stop, there will be job losses and pay cuts which will result is less spending in the economy and knock on effects will follow.

We recently had a death in family over the lockdown so we have a house to sell. We had to get for valuation for probate last week. Auctioneers advice was to get grant of probate and sell the property ASAP as they said we won’t get the valuation price by end of year. They expect the market to hold until then.

Cyrus

Markitron wrote: »

So you think they actually sold for about 300-ish?

It’s nothing to do with what I think

If they are new builds then the ppr for some reason shows the price net of vat , what the purchaser will have paid will have been the gross amount .

Queasy Tadpole

Ubbquittious wrote: »

Asking prices are still mad. You might be lucky that inertia will carry you through and you'll sell at a high or that people all collectively won't feel like doing the recession dance for another decade and that things won't be as bad as they are predicting.

They seem to be steady but I'm seeing a lot of properties that I remember 6+ months ago aback on the market but I don't know if there was a price change.

In my own locality I've seen no sales, we took our house off the market at the start of the pandemic but looking at the market there has been no real shift. My house is still worth the same as is the house I want to buy. We took ours off as we can hold off but it seems like it was pointless, we will get he same amount was we thought and will pay similar to move.

Pivot Eoin

brisan wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges
A lot more decreases than increases

Always the case, and isnt market signifier.

GocRh

JimmyVik wrote: »

Im favouring Portugal myself
Needs more research, but i believe if you live off investments or pension you and move to Portugal you get 10 years without paying any tax. After that you can reassess.
Tax is a curse in Ireland. Too much burden on too few people.

Correct, the scheme is called non-habitual residence. Foreign-sourced income is either tax exempt, or taxed at 10% (i.e. pensions). Locally-sourced income is taxed at 20% which can be significantly lower than the normal local tax.
You have to have a residence available to you in Portugal (you could buy or let) and there's no minimum stay requirement.
Bear in mind that Irish sourced income may still be taxed in Ireland as you'd still be considered a tax resident in Ireland for 3 years after you leave (ordinary tax residency rule).

I've been considering a similar move... but would need to become a contractor out of Portugal to maintain Irish rates. Local salaries (even in IT) are not that good in Portugal, and cost of living in a big city (rents in particular) are proportionally just as high as in Ireland if you're on a local salary.

Ubbquittious

Queasy Tadpole wrote: »

Seeing many of the properties we were interested removed from daft within the last week. Thinking about putting our own up for sale, does not seem to be any drop in price. South Dublin.

Asking prices are still mad. You might be lucky that inertia will carry you through and you'll sell at a high or that people all collectively won't feel like doing the recession dance for another decade and that things won't be as bad as they are predicting.

Queasy Tadpole

Seeing many of the properties we were interested removed from daft within the last week. Thinking about putting our own up for sale, does not seem to be any drop in price. South Dublin.

Springy Turf

cnocbui wrote: »

New Zealand don't have inheritance tax, nor do they have capital gains tax, nor DIRT, their GST/VAT is 8% less than here, at 15% and they are an isolated island/s with a population comparable to here, and prior to Covid-19, they had a budget surplus and habitually balance their budgets. Strewth.

We have the highest level of gross income inequality in the EU. I might not agree with everything in our tax system, but I am glad that it brings our levels of Net income inequality in line with the rest of the EU.

You are cherry-picking when it comes to NZ. New Zealand do have an equivalent of DIRT - as income from savings interest is taxed like your PAYE income. Also, kiwis typically pay a lot more for property taxes, and do not have universal free water.

Experience_day

It is pretty punitive here. Feels like the country aims to keep everyone comfortable but not allow you to get ahead of your station. I was thinking of renting my house out, would get maybe 1500 a month for it......which after tax is around 748 a month.....so renting out with all the risks and problems is essentially not worth the hassle.

cnocbui

Seamie12345 wrote: »

As yes the Irish system, destined to not rest until no one (Bono et all exceptions aside) can work hard and accumulate wealth as it's somehow unfair on those who don't bother to even try. DIRT was meant to be temporary, then it was 20%, then 40% !! and you dare not complain because how can anyone who has any savings (hard earned) complain about having to give 40 % of the interest back to the State ( I know it has reduced since that peak but I'm not confident of them not hitting it again - an easy target due to point above re having any savings not being allowed to complain)
Inheritance tax - another classic - again, how can you complain if you're getting an inheritance at all, that you have to pay a third of it in tax!! - There is no inheritance tax in Australia for example (don't they realise they're missing a trick on their citizens??)
This country is just going beyond a joke now. We pay rates of income tax here at Eur35k that you wouldn't be paying in the UK unless you earned over £200k, the list of ridiculousness goes on and on........

New Zealand don't have inheritance tax, nor do they have capital gains tax, nor DIRT, their GST/VAT is 8% less than here, at 15% and they are an isolated island/s with a population comparable to here, and prior to Covid-19, they had a budget surplus and habitually balance their budgets. Strewth.

Seamie12345

cnocbui wrote: »

You have to get out first, in order to be able to retire early. DIRT, one of the highest capital gains tax rates in the world, same for inheritance tax, higher taxation of the self employed; all should indicate to you that Irish governments don't want you having any source of income other than wages as an employee of someone else. You aren't even allowed to allow for inflation when computing capital gains! I have cut off my nose to spite my face and foregone making capital gains, just on principle.

The US has the American Dream; Ireland has 'now don't you be going getting ideas above your station.'

Of course there are a couple exceptions: If you are Bono or Enya, you can earn hundreds of millions and not pay tax and would never want to leave - oh, and farmers.

As yes the Irish system, destined to not rest until no one (Bono et all exceptions aside) can work hard and accumulate wealth as it's somehow unfair on those who don't bother to even try. DIRT was meant to be temporary, then it was 20%, then 40% !! and you dare not complain because how can anyone who has any savings (hard earned) complain about having to give 40 % of the interest back to the State ( I know it has reduced since that peak but I'm not confident of them not hitting it again - an easy target due to point above re having any savings not being allowed to complain)
Inheritance tax - another classic - again, how can you complain if you're getting an inheritance at all, that you have to pay a third of it in tax!! - There is no inheritance tax in Australia for example (don't they realise they're missing a trick on their citizens??)
This country is just going beyond a joke now. We pay rates of income tax here at Eur35k that you wouldn't be paying in the UK unless you earned over £200k, the list of ridiculousness goes on and on........

The_Conductor

Taylor365 wrote: »

Move to Fermanagh!

Lovely lakes, 12k Capital gains allowance, and 2k dividend allowance.

An extra 14k tax free income!

Oh, and don't forget about the ISA's! 100% tax free!

Home away from home!

Think I'm with Jimmy on this one- Fermanagh just doesn't cut it.

Taylor365

JimmyVik wrote: »

Im favouring Portugal myself
Needs more research, but i believe if you live off investments or pension you and move to Portugal you get 10 years without paying any tax. After that you can reassess.
Tax is a curse in Ireland. Too much burden on too few people.

Move to Fermanagh!

Lovely lakes, 12k Capital gains allowance, and 2k dividend allowance.

An extra 14k tax free income!

Oh, and don't forget about the ISA's! 100% tax free!

Home away from home!

r93kaey5p2izun

fliball123 wrote: »

Not all of them the majority are under 350k just doing a quick look and over three quaters of the last 100 properties sold in June were under this price. I aint going through the rest of them as there is thousands of them but I reckon that the rest would trend in a simular manner

I was referring to the 5 houses I saw sold during lockdown, the ones I had been following.

old_house

The_Conductor wrote: »

There is going to be a world of hurt in here- for anyone who has to drive anywhere, heat their home, or is not in a position to use public transport..........

Yes, and I would expect the price gap between drive-everywhere-houses and houses with good public transport access or in walking/cycling distance to amenities to increase even more in the near future. Living in a place that requires you to have 2 cars available at all times will soon become a difficult to calculate financial risk. Ideally you also want a house with a south facing roof to generate your own electricity for heating. Difficult for many.

fliball123

Luciano Squeaking Greenhouse wrote: »

The houses sold during lockdown were €450-€500k.

Not all of them the majority are under 350k just doing a quick look and over three quaters of the last 100 properties sold in June were under this price. I aint going through the rest of them as there is thousands of them but I reckon that the rest would trend in a simular manner

JimmyVik

cnocbui wrote: »

You have to get out first, in order to be able to retire early. DIRT, one of the highest capital gains tax rates in the world, same for inheritance tax, higher taxation of the self employed; all should indicate to you that Irish governments don't want you having any source of income other than wages as an employee of someone else. You aren't even allowed to allow for inflation when computing capital gains! I have cut off my nose to spite my face and foregone making capital gains, just on principle.

The US has the American Dream; Ireland has 'now don't you be going getting ideas above your station.'

Of course there are a couple exceptions: If you are Bono or Enya, you can earn hundreds of millions and not pay tax and would never want to leave - oh, and farmers.

Im favouring Portugal myself

Needs more research, but i believe if you live off investments or pension you and move to Portugal you get 10 years without paying any tax. After that you can reassess.
Tax is a curse in Ireland. Too much burden on too few people.

r93kaey5p2izun

fliball123 wrote: »

I think anything under the 300/350 mark will be getting snapped up as there will be a serious credit crunch soon anything over that will be a lot slower there has always been a tiered system in Ireland with properties at the higher and lower end

The houses sold during lockdown were €450-€500k.

cnocbui

JimmyVik wrote: »

I dont have properties to offload, but I have been actively looking at some way to retire early and GTF of this high tax country. Its just one tax after another.
I already refuse overtime and side jobs because the tax that would be taken from the pay makes it just not worth my time and effort.

You have to get out first, in order to be able to retire early. DIRT, one of the highest capital gains tax rates in the world, same for inheritance tax, higher taxation of the self employed; all should indicate to you that Irish governments don't want you having any source of income other than wages as an employee of someone else. You aren't even allowed to allow for inflation when computing capital gains! I have cut off my nose to spite my face and foregone making capital gains, just on principle.

The US has the American Dream; Ireland has 'now don't you be going getting ideas above your station.'

Of course there are a couple exceptions: If you are Bono or Enya, you can earn hundreds of millions and not pay tax and would never want to leave - oh, and farmers.

fliball123

Luciano Squeaking Greenhouse wrote: »

North Kildare

I think anything under the 300/350 mark will be getting snapped up as there will be a serious credit crunch soon anything over that will be a lot slower there has always been a tiered system in Ireland with properties at the higher and lower end

r93kaey5p2izun

TheSheriff wrote: »

Whereabouts is this?

Also seeing similar in Dublin 15

North Kildare

TheSheriff

Luciano Squeaking Greenhouse wrote: »

I see bidding ramping up in my area this week. A 3 bed terraced house with asking €260k now at €265k. A 4 bed with asking €449k has a bid of €450k. These have been listed since Christmas. A 3 bed asking €270k gone for €280k and sale agreed within 5 days. Throughout the lockdown I saw 5 houses sale agreed fairly quickly. All at least reached asking price I'm told.

I see no evidence of any reduction in prices here.

Whereabouts is this?

Also seeing similar in Dublin 15