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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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[Deleted User]

cnocbui wrote: »

Not so much if they all get gobbled up by commercial buy-to-let interests, as happened last year...............

It's still good news, if built they are increased supply.
I'd fear lots of the 9,698 apartments granted planning permission won't be built now though.

cnocbui

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0612/1147042-cso-planning-permissions/

This is a very good sign.

Not so much if they all get gobbled up by commercial buy-to-let interests, as happened last year.

With the current fall in rents, they may not go ahead, but larger entities tend to take longer views, so who knows.

Claw Hammer

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0612/1147042-cso-planning-permissions/

This is a very good sign.

All applications which went in pre-covid. Meaningless now.

AlmightyCushion

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0612/1147042-cso-planning-permissions/

New figures from the Central Statistics Office show the number of planning permissions granted for apartment units jumped by 274.2% in the first quarter of the year compared to the same time last year.

Planning permissions were granted for a total of 9,698 apartments compared to 2,592 in the first quarter of 2019.

A total of 5,091 planning permissions were also granted for houses in the first three months of the year, an increase of 3.9% on the first quarter of last year.

Today's figures showed that one-off houses accounted for 9.2% of all new dwelling units granted planning permission in this quarter.

This is a very good sign.

Shelga

I'm starting to think prices won't drop that much at all, maybe 5%. Supply in Dublin is still abysmal. There were at least 10 people at a viewing of a horrible apartment I went to last night, although it was particularly cheap.

JJJackal

bubblypop wrote: »

Do you have tonight's Euro millions numbers?

No but there are only 3 options here: Up, down or stay the same - so 1 in 3 of being right. The original poster suggested a 50% drop in prices. I think that is improbable although I think a drop is likely

The odds of winning the euromillions are 1 in 140 million...

Villa05

GreeBo wrote:

Look at our deposit levels in Ireland, we save.

Those landlords need to put there money somewhere :-)

GreeBo

Taylor365 wrote: »

I don't think so.

I've always saved, so WFH hasn't changed a thing for me.

Walked 3.5km to work and 3.5km back. Made my own lunches. Probably save an extra 50 a month with WFH.

People who aren't used to saving don't form the habit overnight. That money will be spent as soon as they can.

Look at the cues ffs!

I'm not saying that everyone will turn into a saver overnight, but equally everyone wont turn into spender.

Look at our deposit levels in Ireland, we save.

JimmyVik

Villa05 wrote: »

I'm being a bit anecdotal here, but where people save in one segment, they may spend in another.

Go for a dinner and a night out in their own locality as opposed to coffee and food 5 days a week while at work.

Does that seem possible to you?

Id love a good foreign holiday myself.
Saved a good few quid during lockdown. Would love to blow it all in Las Vegas

[Deleted User]

JJJackal wrote: »

Improbable that he will have his pick at 125 to 137.5k of apartments in Dublin.

Improbable that he will have his pick at 125 to 137.5k of apartments in Cork.

Improbable that he will have his pick at 125 to 137.5k of apartments in Galway.

Although he will find some in Cork and Galway and he may find an apartment with no roof in Dublin for that price in 1 year

Do you have tonight's Euro millions numbers?

TheSheriff

manniot2 wrote: »

You will have your pick for half that money in a years time.

Can't wait, I'll take two!

nerrad01

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Just starting to seriously research properties in Dublin, looking to buy in summer 2021. 2 bedroom apartment somewhere fairly central with a budget of 250-275k. D8/7/2/1 are where I'm looking at the minute. Seems a few, but not a whole lot right now.

you wont even get a 1 bed in those areas for that price

JJJackal

manniot2 wrote: »

You will have your pick for half that money in a years time.

Improbable that he will have his pick at 125 to 137.5k of apartments in Dublin.

Improbable that he will have his pick at 125 to 137.5k of apartments in Cork.

Improbable that he will have his pick at 125 to 137.5k of apartments in Galway.

Although he will find some in Cork and Galway and he may find an apartment with no roof in Dublin for that price in 1 year

Sheeps

I wouldn't get your hopes up for a drop by half. Prices may have dropped by 10 or 20k by then, and probably not with new builds.

manniot2

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Just starting to seriously research properties in Dublin, looking to buy in summer 2021. 2 bedroom apartment somewhere fairly central with a budget of 250-275k. D8/7/2/1 are where I'm looking at the minute. Seems a few, but not a whole lot right now.

You will have your pick for half that money in a years time.

dwayneshintzy

Just starting to seriously research properties in Dublin, looking to buy in summer 2021. 2 bedroom apartment somewhere fairly central with a budget of 250-275k. D8/7/2/1 are where I'm looking at the minute. Seems a few, but not a whole lot right now.

Taylor365

Villa05 wrote: »

Commercial rents are a far bigger killer of retail than online sales. Online sales and retail can co exist and compliment one another.
Commercial rents will kill retail long before online sales.

Dublin rents are far too high for many businesses to operate profitably. If that business is diverted to the regions it may save alot of business as costs are much lower.

WFH will take many forms, one with the most potential would be hot desking in regional centres throughout the country. That would inject life back into smaller communities and allow Dublin with the space to breathe and attract new business

It may be too late for some retail as the commercial landlords have killed the customer and with no customers commercial property will now suffer as well

As I say property is a parasite on the economy. It feeds off its host until they both die. Evolution always finds a way of getting around something that trys to destroy it.

WFH is happening, it's how we position ourselves to maximise its potential and minimising its negative effects

With our network? :pac:

[Deleted User]

Villa05 wrote: »

I'm being a bit anecdotal here, but where people save in one segment, they may spend in another.

Go for a dinner and a night out in their own locality as opposed to coffee and food 5 days a week while at work.

Does that seem possible to you?

I'm working from home now and am spending far too much time in the house. I think people will want to get a break from their 4 walls and will likely to go to the shop or pub or cafe to get a break. Whereas before they might have just gone from home to work and work to home.

kippy

brisan wrote: »

well surely to obtain the best price for their client they should have priced the property slightly over value and look to get nearest bid

There are lots of strategies in setting the AMV depending on a number of variables. Setting it lower than estimated value is often to get interest and increase number of bidders or for a fast sale.

brisan

awec wrote: »

It's 35k over asking, about 7%?

well surely to obtain the best price for their client they should have priced the property slightly over value and look to get nearest bid

Villa05

awec wrote:

I'm not sure you got my point.

awec wrote:

If remote work becomes widespread, and an ever increasing amount of revenue for business comes from online versus physical stores, then the number of employees required is going to drop. It's not going to go up, it's not going to stay the same, it's going to drop like a stone.

Commercial rents are a far bigger killer of retail than online sales. Online sales and retail can co exist and compliment one another.
Commercial rents will kill retail long before online sales.

Dublin rents are far too high for many businesses to operate profitably. If that business is diverted to the regions it may save alot of business as costs are much lower.

WFH will take many forms, one with the most potential would be hot desking in regional centres throughout the country. That would inject life back into smaller communities and allow Dublin with the space to breathe and attract new business

It may be too late for some retail as the commercial landlords have killed the customer and with no customers commercial property will now suffer as well

As I say property is a parasite on the economy. It feeds off its host until they both die. Evolution always finds a way of getting around something that trys to destroy it.

WFH is happening, it's how we position ourselves to maximise its potential and minimising its negative effects

thomasdylan

TheSheriff wrote: »

7% above is not gross undervaluation.

Interested to see what it goes for.

One of the estate agents lists properties at 10-15% under what they expect to get for it. I think it's Moovingo though.

I looked at a few houses they had listed when I was househunting. One of them ended up going for 90k over their asking.

TheSheriff

awec wrote: »

I'm not sure you got my point.

If remote work becomes widespread, and an ever increasing amount of revenue for business comes from online versus physical stores, then the number of employees required is going to drop. It's not going to go up, it's not going to stay the same, it's going to drop like a stone.

Whether it's inconvenient a fact or not, the high street is a vital part of the economy, and the high street will absolutely suffer in a WFH model.

Yea you can argue it's maybe overdue, but this will be incredibly painful, and not just for those who'd find their employment prospects evaporate. We should avoid painting this rosy picture of remote working of everyone living wherever they want, doing whatever they want, and everyone better for it.

I never thought about this aspect to be honest.

You are probably right, while WFH will suit the white collar classes for a while it will likely drag down the economy over time.

TheSheriff

awec wrote: »

It's 35k over asking, about 7%?

7% above is not gross undervaluation.

Interested to see what it goes for.

TheSheriff

cnocbui wrote: »

I would imagine it would be worth 6-7 million these days, just on land value alone, as each of the multiple houses now on the site is worth a couple mil each.

I might posses they only photos of the house, still in existence; as it was around 1960:

Amazing, thanks for sharing !

Far better looking than the cramped houses there at the moment

cnocbui

TheSheriff wrote: »

I know the very houses. Imagine if your family still had it, houses go for an eye watering amount in the area. Castleknock itself rivals and often eclipses the stalwart that is South Dublin for property prices. It's a lovely area, just not very many houses we could afford there.....or apartments.....

I would imagine it would be worth 6-7 million these days, just on land value alone, as each of the multiple houses now on the site is worth a couple mil each.

I might posses they only photos of the house, still in existence; as it was around 1960:

awec

brisan wrote: »

either a ghost bid or Auctioneera grossly undervalued the property

It's 35k over asking, about 7%?

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

Change brings opportunity, Irish retail failed for the most part to embrace that change when the Internet offered a another outlet to get their products to market. Of course its not too late but its always that bit more difficult if you are unwilling to embrace change.

We should not make the same mistake with WFH. Many of our towns and villages have spare capacity and the infrastructure to handle an increasing population. It would be much easier and cheaper to fill schools where population has declined than build new schools in cities with.some of the most expensive land in the country

I'm not sure you got my point.

If remote work becomes widespread, and an ever increasing amount of revenue for business comes from online versus physical stores, then the number of employees required is going to drop. It's not going to go up, it's not going to stay the same, it's going to drop like a stone.

Whether it's inconvenient a fact or not, the high street is a vital part of the economy, and the high street will absolutely suffer in a WFH model.

Yea you can argue it's maybe overdue, but this will be incredibly painful, and not just for those who'd find their employment prospects evaporate. We should avoid painting this rosy picture of remote working of everyone living wherever they want, doing whatever they want, and everyone better for it.

Villa05

TheSheriff wrote:

Doubtful it's a ghost bid, it's an agressive bid and would likely scare off other potential bidders.

Do they not check capacity to complete purchase before posting an offer online

TheSheriff

cnocbui wrote: »

My grandmother once owned the Georgian era gatehouse to Phoenix park in Castleknock. It was on about 2 acres, I think, and the wall to the park was one boundary. It was demolished after she sold it and now there are these lovely, modern mock-tudor monstrosities on the site, going by street-view.

I know the very houses. Imagine if your family still had it, houses go for an eye watering amount in the area. Castleknock itself rivals and often eclipses the stalwart that is South Dublin for property prices. It's a lovely area, just not very many houses we could afford there.....or apartments.....